When whacko birds come home to roost Posted on March 24, 2015 by goplifer — 101 Comments
People have learned to assume that a Republican candidate is winking when he speaks on certain subjects. No, Jeb Bush is not actually going to repeal the minimum wage. He is not going to roll back equal rights for gay and lesbian couples. Enough voters understand a Republican candidate’s need to appease religious radicals that the candidates can remain credible despite some very dubious public positions.
For twenty years Republican candidates for Federal offices have survived on a kind of built-in duplicity. Victory depends on pandering to people who believe all those bullshit forwarded emails and Facebook posts. Electability in this context has a very special meaning. A Republican candidate becomes “electable” by appeasing base voters while convincing general election voters that he didn’t mean what he said. Needless to say, this institutionalized liar’s game has created tensions in the Republican Party. Ted Cruz is threatening to break the game.
The Tea Party was the first successful attempt by religious extremists and Neo-Confederates to start electing Republicans who share their wildest delusions. Mitt Romney was pandering. Characters like Joni Ernst, Rand Paul and Mike Lee actually believe what they are spouting. With the Presidential campaign of Ted Cruz, the whacko birds are coming home to roost.
Cruz has the potential to destroy the Republican Liar’s Game. If he does, the party alignments we have lived under since the Reagan Era will become unsustainable. No one but Ted Cruz is going to win the Republican nomination in 2016 by claiming to be the most conservative candidate. There is nothing to the right of Ted Cruz other than armed sedition. His campaign represents the end of the road in our race toward extremes. The party will have to either embrace its looniest ideas publicly, from top bottom, or explore a different approach to politics for the first time in a generation.
Political experts have largely dismissed the Cruz campaign as a stunt, placing him in a category with other Republican performance artists like Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain, and Pat Robertson. You can be certain that the Bush campaign isn’t making this mistake.
Cruz is a deadly serious candidate for two reasons. First, he is far more intelligent and capable than any of the party’s previous extremist candidates. Second, and more importantly, for the first time in more than fifty years we’re in a campaign cycle that favors grassroots appeal over insider organization.
His ideas may be crazy, but his previous opponents can tell you that he is sober, disciplined, and savvy. Whoever thinks they are going to beat Ted Cruz by watching him self-destruct needs to have a long conversation with Texas’ not-Senator David Dewhurst. This is the first time in the party’s modern history that a candidate from the extreme fringes of the far right possesses the personal and political capacity to run a fully credible national campaign.
Planning to wait for him to run out of money? Cruz isn’t going to need the usual collection of big GOP donors. He’s the Barack Obama of the right and not just because of the controversy over his birth certificate.
There isn’t a Republican alive with a more rabid, committed base of support. He probably won’t rake in the massive donations from the usual suspects, but he will dry up the well of small-scale support for everyone else, including support in the precincts. And this year, unlike in the past, that pool of grassroots support is likely to decide the nomination.
For the first time since 1964, the party is entering the primaries without a presumed nominee. The most precious resource in Republican Presidential politics is organization. Unlike the Democrats who possess a massive patronage machine that places boots on the street in any campaign, Republicans always struggle to man the precincts. That struggle is particularly difficult for a new candidate seeking the nomination for the first time.
That’s why the party almost always nominates the guy who finished second last time. The presence of a standing organization, thousands of electors, county party chairs, volunteers and other critical elements of support spread across fifty states is crucial to success but takes time to build. That’s why McCain outlasted everyone else in 2008 even though much of the party base despised him. That’s why Romney won in 2012.
No one has this advantage going into the 2016 campaign. In 1968 and 2000, party leaders plugged that gap by uniting around a candidate early. Bush and Nixon started their nominating campaigns with an almost insurmountable lead. That hasn’t happened this year. No candidate has broad enough appeal to dominate the race and no organization inside the party is strong enough to press their will.
This race is open. The base will pick the nominee.
If the base will pick the nominee then it’s hard to imagine how anyone has better odds than Ted Cruz. He is lined up with the base on every single issue to the farthest possible extent. He doesn’t have to apologize, explain or dodge on any issue that matters to them. Never once has Cruz compromised his “principles” to make anything function properly. Here is a man who has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he will do what the base wants no matter how stupid or catastrophic it may be.
A Cruz candidacy does open up new possibilities for a more rational Republican future. McCain’s 2000 playbook would work like a dream in this scenario. Unfortunately, there isn’t a single Republican candidate who is positioned to run that kind of campaign. They have all set themselves up for a run to the far right. It’s too late for any of them to pull back.
Other candidates will be forced to claim that they agree with him on almost every issue, but that they are more “reasonable” than Cruz. They will have to convince primary voters that they are more “electable” than Ted Cruz. They will have to convince a frothing grassroots base that their methods of achieving those policies will be more “effective.” They will have to play the Republican Liar’s Game.
Maybe it will work, but the Cruz campaign probably breaks the game.
You can't tell me that Cruz is more electable than Jed Bush. Even if more republicans prefer Cruz. He is not more electable.
Well, I didn't say that and neither did the article.
Certainly Jeb Bush is more electable when you are looking at a national electorate. Not the case among those likely to vote in a Republican primary race. Which is what the article is focusing on.
You can't tell me that Cruz is more electable than Jed Bush. Even if more republicans prefer Cruz. He is not more electable.
Well, I didn't say that and neither did the article.
Certainly Jeb Bush is more electable when you are looking at a national electorate. Not the case among those likely to vote in a Republican primary race. Which is what the article is focusing on.
When whacko birds come home to roost Posted on March 24, 2015 by goplifer — 101 Comments
Enough voters understand a Republican candidate’s need to appease religious radicals that the candidates can remain credible despite some very dubious public positions.
Nope. Only because the R's have let zealots hijack them. They do not care if the candidates mean the batshitcrazy or not. I think this is self-delusion right here.
I do believe the next Republican candidate will be far right. Republicans believe they settled the last two times and lost anyway. I've read many times from them that they win with conservatives who can fire up the base, like Reagan. The party hasn't turned toward moderation once in the past 8 years.
It also seems to be a safe bet from my view, because most of the people running are going to be far right! I don't feel safe making predictions about the general. I'm a bit scared.
I find the entire Ted Cruz phenomenon just fascinating. He is a candidate crafted in the image of Fox News. He is the answer to the wing nut call to arms. I'm nervous as an American, but as a politics whore, I am just dying to see how far right he can drag this Republican Party.
Huckabee and Gingrich won more votes combined in the 2012 primaries than Mitt Romney did. There are a huge number of primary voters ready to vote for the cray cray. The candidates are going to be stumbling over each other to drive this country off a cliff in order to get wing nut support, and in the process, alienate everyone sane who would otherwise have considered voting for them.
Isn't he f'ing Canadian? I am sure this is not true, but since the hint of him not being Amurican should be enough to scare the real right conservative Rs, this can not be true.
Isn't he f'ing Canadian? I am sure this is not true, but since the hint of him not being Amurican should be enough to scare the real right conservative Rs, this can not be true.
I find the entire Ted Cruz phenomenon just fascinating. He is a candidate crafted in the image of Fox News. He is the answer to the wing nut call to arms. I'm nervous as an American, but as a politics whore, I am just dying to see how far right he can drag this Republican Party.
Huckabee and Gingrich won more votes combined in the 2012 primaries than Mitt Romney did. There are a huge number of primary voters ready to vote for the cray cray. The candidates are going to be stumbling over each other to drive this country off a cliff in order to get wing nut support, and in the process, alienate everyone sane who would otherwise have considered voting for them.
Well, I think it will be interesting as well for sort of similar reasons. R's have convinced themselves that the extremism is smoke and mirrors and nothing but wink-wink pandering. This author said so. We had a longass thread once in which we were told that Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney were running as fiscal conservatives (not social ones) but that even if they were running as SC, it didn't matter because they were not really social conservatives. Can this same self-convincing (and to be clear, I think it was a form of denial) be done with a candidate like him? Or will the pretense be abandoned and R's will have to accept that the Ted Cruzes of the country ARE the party? And if that happens, will they continue to go along with it because Republican!!! or will they draw a line and vote Libertarian?
I find the entire Ted Cruz phenomenon just fascinating. He is a candidate crafted in the image of Fox News. He is the answer to the wing nut call to arms. I'm nervous as an American, but as a politics whore, I am just dying to see how far right he can drag this Republican Party.
Huckabee and Gingrich won more votes combined in the 2012 primaries than Mitt Romney did. There are a huge number of primary voters ready to vote for the cray cray. The candidates are going to be stumbling over each other to drive this country off a cliff in order to get wing nut support, and in the process, alienate everyone sane who would otherwise have considered voting for them.
Well, I think it will be interesting as well for sort of similar reasons. R's have convinced themselves that the extremism is smoke and mirrors and nothing but wink-wink pandering. This author said so. We had a longass thread once in which we were told that Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney were running as fiscal conservatives (not social ones) but that even if they were running as SC, it didn't matter because they were not really social conservatives. Can this same self-convincing (and to be clear, I think it was a form of denial) be done with a candidate like him? Or will the pretense be abandoned and R's will have to accept that the Ted Cruzes of the country ARE the party? And if that happens, will they continue to go along with it because Republican!!! or will they draw a line and vote Libertarian?
You know, to an extent I sort of get the point the author led with. There have always been candidates that are just social conservatives for the sake of convenience. Those candidates are definitely going to use judicial nominations to advance a socially conservative agenda, so I think voters who thought any of these republican candidates wouldn't rock the boat on certain issues were very much mistaken. But I could see how a reasonable person could believe that Romney would not propose an abortion ban on day 1; I mean, he loves money way too much for anything else to be a priority.
Now that the Republican Party is getting more and more insular and detached from reality, I think it's foolish to think that many of these candidates aren't going to follow through on the batshitcrazy stuff they are espousing. Their support has changed. It's no longer a bigger coalition of different types of people. Instead its lots and lots and lots of rural, angry, white men. That's who they are answering to now.
Look at what just happened in Indiana. That shit is nuts. Fucking nuts. Any sane candidate for office would have to know how that's going to play out nationally. So either one of two things is going on: Mike Pence has absolutely no ambitions beyond governor of Indiana, or he's drunk Fox's kool aid and really believes that the problem with the Republican Party is that it's just not "conservative" enough.
Well, I think it will be interesting as well for sort of similar reasons. R's have convinced themselves that the extremism is smoke and mirrors and nothing but wink-wink pandering. This author said so. We had a longass thread once in which we were told that Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney were running as fiscal conservatives (not social ones) but that even if they were running as SC, it didn't matter because they were not really social conservatives. Can this same self-convincing (and to be clear, I think it was a form of denial) be done with a candidate like him? Or will the pretense be abandoned and R's will have to accept that the Ted Cruzes of the country ARE the party? And if that happens, will they continue to go along with it because Republican!!! or will they draw a line and vote Libertarian?
You know, to an extent I sort of get the point the author led with. There have always been candidates that are just social conservatives for the sake of convenience. Those candidates are definitely going to use judicial nominations to advance a socially conservative agenda, so I think voters who thought any of these republican candidates wouldn't rock the boat on certain issues were very much mistaken. But I could see how a reasonable person could believe that Romney would not propose an abortion ban on day 1; I mean, he loves money way too much for anything else to be a priority.
Now that the Republican Party is getting more and more insular and detached from reality, I think it's foolish to think that many of these candidates aren't going to follow through on the batshitcrazy stuff they are espousing. Their support has changed. It's no longer a bigger coalition of different types of people. Instead its lots and lots and lots of rural, angry, white men. That's who they are answering to now.
Look at what just happened in Indiana. That shit is nuts. Fucking nuts. Any sane candidate for office would have to know how that's going to play out nationally. So either one of two things is going on: Mike Pence has absolutely no ambitions beyond governor of Indiana, or he's drunk Fox's kool aid and really believes that the problem with the Republican Party is that it's just not "conservative" enough.
This is true, I think. Indiana is a good example. Daniels wasn't my favorite ever but his overall focus was business-type interests. He never would have signed that ridiculous RF act that Pence is so gung ho to sign because he knew it would fuck Indianapolis over - and Indianapolis as an event destination has been a boon for the state and the city.
Plus, if you go back to when the Christian right joined the R party, it was with Reagan, right? Basically I feel like their agenda has slowly taken over the whole party. At least that's my perspective.
IDK, there's no way in hell I would ever vote for Cruz. I was already pushed the 3rd party way and D locally in the 2012 and 2014 elections... and Cruz isn't the type of candidate that would change that for me.
I find the entire Ted Cruz phenomenon just fascinating. He is a candidate crafted in the image of Fox News. He is the answer to the wing nut call to arms. I'm nervous as an American, but as a politics whore, I am just dying to see how far right he can drag this Republican Party.
Huckabee and Gingrich won more votes combined in the 2012 primaries than Mitt Romney did. There are a huge number of primary voters ready to vote for the cray cray. The candidates are going to be stumbling over each other to drive this country off a cliff in order to get wing nut support, and in the process, alienate everyone sane who would otherwise have considered voting for them.
I could see Walker, Paul and Jindal chipping away at this base though.
For every "they have to say things that no one believes" there's a g.w. lesson in "compassionate conservatism" dog whistles. They out of both sides of their mouths to get elected.
So I'm inclined to now believe people when they say things like "value life." It means they'll be anti choice.
Isn't he f'ing Canadian? I am sure this is not true, but since the hint of him not being Amurican should be enough to scare the real right conservative Rs, this can not be true.
Isn't he f'ing Canadian? I am sure this is not true, but since the hint of him not being Amurican should be enough to scare the real right conservative Rs, this can not be true.
He's white therefore American
He's Cuban-American, that a New Yorker editor called "uppity" (which I agree was stupid to use). But from that incident, I'm sure he'll get the minority vote from the minorities in the base of the GOP.