How a solar storm two years ago nearly caused a catastrophe on Earth BY JASON SAMENOW
On July 23, 2012, the sun unleashed two massive clouds of plasma that barely missed a catastrophic encounter with the Earth’s atmosphere. These plasma clouds, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), comprised a solar storm thought to be the most powerful in at least 150 years.
“If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” physicist Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado tells NASA.
Fortunately, the blast site of the CMEs was not directed at Earth. Had this event occurred a week earlier when the point of eruption was Earth-facing, a potentially disastrous outcome would have unfolded.
“I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did,” Baker tells NASA. “If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire.”
A CME double whammy of this potency striking Earth would likely cripple satellite communications and could severely damage the power grid. NASA offers this sobering assessment:
Analysts believe that a direct hit … could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket. Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps.
According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair.
CWG’s Steve Tracton put it this way in his frightening overview of the risks of a severe solar storm: “The consequences could be devastating for commerce, transportation, agriculture and food stocks, fuel and water supplies, human health and medical facilities, national security, and daily life in general.”
Solar physicists compare the 2012 storm to the so-called Carrington solar storm of September 1859, named after English astronomer Richard Carrington who documented the event.
“In my view the July 2012 storm was in all respects at least as strong as the 1859 Carrington event,” Baker tells NASA. “The only difference is, it missed.”
During the Carrington event, the northern lights were seen as far south as Cuba and Hawaii according to historical accounts. The solar eruption “caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices,” NASA notes.
NASA says the July 2012 storm was particularly intense because a CME had traveled along the same path just days before the July 23 double whammy – clearing the way for maximum effect, like a snowplow.
“This double-CME traveled through a region of space that had been cleared out by yet another CME four days earlier,” NASA says. ” As a result, the storm clouds were not decelerated as much as usual by their transit through the interplanetary medium.”
NASA’s online article about the science of this solar storm is well-worth the read. Perhaps the scariest finding reported in the article is this: There is a 12 percent chance of a Carrington-type event on Earth in the next 10 years according to Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc.
“Initially, I was quite surprised that the odds were so high, but the statistics appear to be correct,” Riley tells NASA. “It is a sobering figure.”
It’s even more sobering when considering the conclusion of Steve Tracton’s 2013 article: Are we ready yet for potentially disastrous impacts of space weather? Tracton’s answer: “an unequivocal, if not surprising, no!”
Really? We've done such a good job of fucking ourselves over. Only to be taken down by a freak event?
PS, my optometrist was going off today about how the missing plane is probably in the hands of Pakistani terrorists who are going to detonate a nuclear bomb in our atmosphere and take out the power grid in the US, and then 60% of us will die or something. I fucking love going to that office. It's all I can do not to SMH and burst out laughing.
Mine isn't like this - it's just stuff I had lying around the house and just threw into a bag. Pretty much all leftover from when we lost power in Hurricane Sandy - flashlight, batteries, a hand crank radio I bought a few years ago for camping, and earlier tonight I just tossed in some toiletries (sample sizes from hotels), a can opener since I just got a new one, toilet paper, and some old clothes.
I always thought a bug out bag was for getting the hell out of dodge, while an emergency kit was more for sheltering in place or being evacuated to an emergency shelter. Ie. a bug out bag should have equipment to make a fire, live off the land while you are escaping whatever catastrophe happened, while an emergency kit is made with the idea that you'll be without electricity for a while, and may need an extra pair of clothes and a toothbrush.
My bug out bag is specifically for if something happens and I'm at work.
After the big NYC blackout a friend had to walk out of Manhattan over the GW bridge to get home. I live 15 miles from the city, but would need to walk at least 5 to get to our meet up area (a bike shop near the bridge).
My bag has 72 hours of food & water, first aid kit, crank radio & crank phone charger, emergency blanket & a small tarp. Oh and iodine pills in case of a dirty bomb.
And you folks laughed at me when I said that the sun spot cycles, (solar/space weather) impacted our weather on earth and have more to do with what happens here than most people can begin to imagine.
We have enough shit going on right now, what with most of the world engaged in some sort of battle and jackasses trying to deport children fleeing situations so horrible their parents were like "here, creepy smuggler person, take my 4 year old to a strange land where I may never see her again," and the fact that Justin Bieber is still culturally relevant.
So, scientists, just keep this to YOURSELVES. I don't want to know. Just shut up right now. Wait a few months, okay?
I always thought a bug out bag was for getting the hell out of dodge, while an emergency kit was more for sheltering in place or being evacuated to an emergency shelter. Ie. a bug out bag should have equipment to make a fire, live off the land while you are escaping whatever catastrophe happened, while an emergency kit is made with the idea that you'll be without electricity for a while, and may need an extra pair of clothes and a toothbrush.
I plan to add more of these survival things eventually. I don't really have the desire or extra money right now to fully stock a BOB, but I think I'm going to start picking up small things (water purification, mess kit, some kind of small tent or tarp) here and there as I go grocery shopping or place an Amazon order.
Gotta be honest, though ... if the world gets to the point where I have to build fires and snare squirrels to stay alive, I think I'd rather just let the Apocalypse take me down, lol.
I always thought what takes us out would be nuclear and frankly my plan was to drink myself into a coma and let what happens happen. Last time we had a power outage, it was only 3 hours before I realized just how "soft" I am when it comes to roughing it. I have never even camped! I am doomed, sucks for my family.
We watched this episode of preppers last night, I think, where the people were heavily into preserving food. It was sort of mind boggling, because they said they did that instead of putting money in a 401k/retirement.
But now, I'm thinking maybe I should go ahead and divert funds for canning and my tank purchase.
And you folks laughed at me when I said that the sun spot cycles, (solar/space weather) impacted our weather on earth and have more to do with what happens here than most people can begin to imagine.
I don't remember that discussion, but I'm quite sure THIS board didn't laugh at you. We're in to that sort of thing.
And you folks laughed at me when I said that the sun spot cycles, (solar/space weather) impacted our weather on earth and have more to do with what happens here than most people can begin to imagine.
I don't remember that discussion, but I'm quite sure THIS board didn't laugh at you. We're in to that sort of thing.
We laughed at her because she stated that the sun flares were more the cause of the weather changes than anything humans are doing. She has a bit of a selective memory, our lys.
My bug out bag is specifically for if something happens and I'm at work.
After the big NYC blackout a friend had to walk out of Manhattan over the GW bridge to get home. I live 15 miles from the city, but would need to walk at least 5 to get to our meet up area (a bike shop near the bridge).
My bag has 72 hours of food & water, first aid kit, crank radio & crank phone charger, emergency blanket & a small tarp. Oh and iodine pills in case of a dirty bomb.
72 hours of water is a TON of water; but I assume you are carrying a low consumption amount? Can I ask how much you have in your bag?
My grandmother is a hardcore prepper, she is convinced that armageddon is coming (like tomorrow). It makes me sad when I think of how much money she has spent on MREs, water purification systems, etc. I'm all for being prepared, but she has literally spent tens of thousands of dollars. She's a very religious woman and a pacifist though, so basically if shit ever actually hit the fan, people would just come and steal all her stuff. She sends us gold and silver coins every Christmas that we are supposed to hide under our mattress because the banks aren't safe, and the dollar won't be worth anything. She would be appalled to know we keep them in a safe deposit box.