Is anyone else watching the Iceland volcano?

[Deleted]

H and I are set to go to Copenhagen this coming weekend I'm getting a little freaked out for a repeat of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010. 
Anyone else monitoring this? Are there any volcanologists on this board to calm my fears?  


grapevine.is/news/2014/08/17/elevated-caution-over-seismic-activity-at-volcano-site/

[GilliC]

How long are you going to be in Copenhagen? I wouldn't worry too much until it at least reaches orange. And even if it hits red, it's only a problem depending on the wind conditions.

[Deleted]

We're only going for a long weekend, so hopefully it doesn't go to orange any time soon. I guess I should be more worried about if the winds blow east and our two next trips in September.

Hopefully, it just rumbles and doesn't actually erupt.

[orriskitten]

We are unfortunately at orange, but I believe this volcano is less violent than the last, meaning less ash.

Fingers crossed for nothing more to happen!

[rubytue]

Ummm. Errr. I leave for Ireland in 2 weeks. Do I need to worry about this? I have never flown to Europe before, so I wouldn't even have thought of this.

[Deleted]

@sfgal530, the last time it erupted it only really disrupted flights into Europe. I think the only 2 open airports were Madrid and Istanbul. You should probably be fine.

And, sadly, still on the wait list for Noma. I looked at Geranium and I put myself on that wait list too. I figure something has to work out, right?!

rubytue, in all honesty, we should be fine. So many things have to line up perfectly for another big flight delay like in 2010. The volcano needs to erupt and put out tons of ash that stays around the height of where the planes fly. Then the winds have to go east or west. And also in 2010 the volcano erupted about the same time the political unrest happened in Thailand, so there was that to deal with too.

Have a great time in Ireland! We went to Dublin earlier this year and had lots of fun. You'll definitely enjoy it.

[orriskitten]

The plus side with this volcano is under much more ice than the last which should absorb much more of the ash. Right now the biggest risk seems to be extreme flooding in some areas here. Huge amounts of ash are said to be unlikely this time around.

[Deleted]

Just in case anyone is still following this, the volcano is still at orange, but it looks like it won't really effect travel:

www.vox.com/2014/8/20/6049241/bardarbunga-volcano-iceland-air-travel

[vampsterdam]

Aug 21, 2014 5:30:11 GMT -5 @uwhuskygirl said:

Just in case anyone is still following this, the volcano is still at orange, but it looks like it won't really effect travel:

www.vox.com/2014/8/20/6049241/bardarbunga-volcano-iceland-air-travel

Thanks for the update!

I'm not leaving for about a month, but I've already had so many people comment about my trip being cancelled.

Fingers crossed it doesn't!

[GilliC]

From the volcano eruption site that I follow:

Even if Bárðarbunga's eruption continues and breaks the ice, allowing explosions between magma and water/ice to eject significant amounts of ash, most experts agree that a scenario like the Eyjafjallajökull back in 2010 is unlikely to repeat itself.


Back then, most of Europe's airspace was closed for 6 days, which caused 100,000 flight cancellations and left thousands of travelers stranded all over the world.


Back in 2010, airlines had a "no ash" policy, i.e. any amount of ash in the air was to be avoided. Following research into the subject of how large ash concentrations need to be to actually cause damage, most airlines today have set a more tolerant limit which would allow them to fly through very dilutes ash plumes nevertheless. Now, a limit of 4,000 micrograms of ash per cubic meter is accepted. That will result in significantly fewer cancellations even if an ash plume again spreads over Europe. The Gímsvötn volcano eruption in 2011, which was significantly larger than Eyjafjallajökull, but also shorter, proved this. Only 900 flights were cancelled then.


In addition, meteorological conditions in 2010 were such that the ash was transported directly over northern and central Europe, something that is not likely to repeat exactly as such.

[rubytue]

In case anyone missed it, the volcano did erupt on the 29th. No ash plume! And my flight is on time tonight

www.yahoo.com/travel/thar-she-blows-what-icelands-volcanic-eruption-means-96458380117.html

[GilliC]

It's still erupting, but they're not entirely sure what's going on. The small fissure eruption doesn't seem to align with the magma movement they'd estimated, so there's a good chance of more subglacial eruptions. Probably not a big threat to air traffic but serious flash flood risks in the area if you're on land.

This is the site I use to track volcanic activity if you're interested:
www.volcanodiscovery.com/bardarbunga/news.html