Okay people, time to focus on November elections

[Velar Fricative]

Here's an article from a couple of days ago outlining what's at stake in Congress:


www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-2014-election-20140929-story.html#page=1


Just over a month before the midterm election, control of the U.S. Senate remains surprisingly up for grabs as Democrats parlay a financial edge and other advantages to battle history and a strong anti-Obama tide.



Republicans still enjoy the more secure position. The GOP is almost certain to win open-seat contests in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, getting them halfway to the six seats needed to win a majority and gain control.



But the party's candidates have yet to put away any of the 10 or so most competitive Senate races, buoying Democratic hopes they can hang on to at least one chamber of Congress despite what appeared, at the start of this election year, to be long odds.


In Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska, where President Obama's approval ratings are particularly low, Democratic incumbents have kept their uphill races within striking distance. It helps that the candidates — Mary L. Landrieu, Mark Pryor and Mark Begich — come from prominent political families, making them familiar brand names in their respective states. But even in North Carolina, first-term Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, a prime Republican target, has clung to a small but consistent lead in recent voter surveys.



Part of the reason is money. Democrats, unexpectedly, have had more of it this year than Republicans. And part of it is mechanics — allocating resources, targeting voters, getting them to the polls — which national Democrats have excelled at over the last decade.



In that time, Democrats have defeated 12 sitting Republican senators. Republicans have ousted just three Democratic incumbents, two of them in the last midterm election under Obama, in 2010.



Historically, the midterm vote has been a referendum on the president, and this one appears to be no exception. There are three typical outcomes for the party in the White House, said Charlie Cook, a longtime nonpartisan campaign analyst: "Bad; really bad; and really, really bad."



To a great extent Democrats are simply fighting for the least bad result, which would be clinging to the Senate by the narrowest of margins. (Republicans are expected to modestly pad their majority in the House and could lose a handful of governor's seats.)



The GOP started the year with a distinct advantage in the Senate fight. Democrats have been forced to defend far more seats, thanks to their gains when Obama was elected in 2008, and a number of retirements in conservative-leaning states. Of the most competitive races, all but a handful are in places that Obama lost in 2012, several by landslide margins.



Also working in favor of Republicans are the election's broad themes — the appropriate size and scope of government, Obama's leadership and competence — which match those of 2010, a banner year for the GOP.


Democrats have tried to shift the focus from a debate over big government, embodied by the unpopular national healthcare law, to the merits of popular programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, and issues that are especially resonant to minorities, young people and single women. All are Democratic-leaning voter groups that tend to sit out midterm elections.



"Our candidates are asking theirs, 'Where are you on minimum wage? Where are you on equal pay [for women]? Where are you on college tuition?'" said Sen. Charles E. Schumer of New York, one of the Democratic Party's top political strategists.



That tactic — one party trying to nationalize the election, the other trying to make contests more localized and issue-specific — is also typical of midterm elections.


Another time-honored tradition is candidates distancing themselves from the unpopular president of their own party; some Democrats this year have gone so far as to criticize Obama in their TV advertising.



"I disagree with him on guns, coal" and the Environmental Protection Agency, says a skeet-shooting Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky's Democratic secretary of state, who faces Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a fiercely fought contest.



Begich, locked in a tough race with former GOP Atty. Gen. Dan Sullivan, cited several differences with Obama in a recent TV spot, over taxes, the environment and defense spending. "True Alaska," read the logo opening Begich's advertisement.



What is notable this year is Democrats' considerable financial advantage, which will not necessarily determine control of the Senate but, at the least, has kept many contests close heading into the final five weeks of the campaign.


The Democrats' Senate campaign committee raised $111 million through August, nearly $30 million more than the Republican committee, and outside groups have enhanced the party's cash lead. In the 10 most competitive Senate races, pro-Democratic forces have outspent their Republican counterparts $80 million to $73 million through Friday, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics, an organization that tracks campaign spending.



Crucially, the Democrats have used their money edge to reserve far more TV air time than Republicans in the campaign's final stretch, meaning even if the GOP and its allies catch up financially they will have to pay much higher last-minute rates.



Writing in the Wall Street Journal this month, Republican strategist Karl Rove lamented the financial disparity in a commentary that amounted to a thinly veiled plea for donors to open their checkbooks.



"The midterm environment is terrible for Democrats," Rove wrote, "yet each passing day provides evidence as to why a GOP Senate majority is still in doubt." (Many Republican donors have sat on their wallets out of frustration with a Rove-affiliated "super PAC" and other groups that collected tens of millions of dollars in 2012 and failed to elect Mitt Romney president or deliver a Republican Senate.)



Scott Reed, a Republican strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, remains sanguine. "The sand continues to feel like it's shifting our way," he said, though he also sounded a cautionary note: "Experience shows it's not easy defeating incumbent Democratic U.S. senators."



Whatever happens Nov. 4, it is likely that today's toss-up races will break decisively in favor of one party.



"It doesn't have to be a wave, or even a strong wind," said Cook, the independent campaign analyst. "Just a whiff can make races that are fundamentally tied fall almost entirely in the same direction."



Even then control of the Senate may not be decided. Under their election rules, the contests in Louisiana and Georgia could push into December and January, respectively, if no candidate wins more than 50% in November.

[eclaires]

In TN, we have some yes on 1 bullshit about abortion. I have a feeling I am going to be outraged at the outcome.

I told my husband the other day he needs to vote no on 1, and that's all he needs to know.

[meshaliuknits]

I've been phone polled twice and someone showed up at my door with questions once asking about my thoughts on the city counsel candidates. CITY COUNSEL!!!

@juno you getting this?

[tacosforlife]

Oct 1, 2014 13:48:12 GMT -5 meshaliuknits said:

I've been phone polled twice and someone showed up at my door with questions once asking about my thoughts on the city counsel candidates. CITY COUNSEL!!!

@juno you getting this?

Answer their questions!

This kind of shit keeps kibble in my kitties' tummies!

[meshaliuknits]

Oct 1, 2014 13:49:46 GMT -5 tacosforlife said:

Oct 1, 2014 13:48:12 GMT -5 meshaliuknits said:

I've been phone polled twice and someone showed up at my door with questions once asking about my thoughts on the city counsel candidates. CITY COUNSEL!!!

@juno you getting this?

Answer their questions!

This kind of shit keeps kibble in my kitties' tummies!

LOL I did! I wouldn't want fatty to starve! It's just, man. That's a lot. Especially for a local election.

And if you make these kinds of surveys, please do me a solid and make the race multiple selections or add bi/multi racial. Althogh the poll guys are getting a kick out of listening to me determine what I want to select.

[secretlyevil]

We've had a particular nasty governor's race. I'm over the mud slinging.

[secretlyevil]

I'm not sure what's going to go down in Nov. Just hope the dems gain some traction in Congress.

[ESF]

The thing I have heard the most about is the proposed soda tax on the local ballot.

Also Prop 46 on the state ballot, which I am so torn up about. It would have been a perfectly awesome piece of pro-consumer, anti-"tort reform" legislation if they didn't have to go and add bullshit requiring mandatory drug testing of health care workers as a way of sweetening the pot and trying to get people to see past the likely insurance-company funded spin opposing it. I am most likely going to abstain from voting at all on that particular issue, since there's no write-in option of FUCK THE BALLOT INITIATIVE SYSTEM.

[NewOrleans]

I hate my governor.

And I FEAR and HATE the Republican contender far more. It's terrifying.

I don't know what to do this November. Hold me.

[StrawberryBlondie]

The guy challenging Franken has attack ads that crack me up. They talk about how Franken runs misleading attack ads. That same study found that the challenger's were pants on fire level lies.

[zelda25]

Only one of our two US Senators has a (semi) serious GOP challenger, and she (the Koch-backed challenger) is going down in flames, rather spectacularly. I think the GOP assumed she'd be a flawless candidate because she's a pediatric neurosurgeon and is relatively moderate.  Turns out that she's been accused of stalking both her ex-husband AND and ex-boyfriend, and just last week no-showed for both a big debate and an editorial board interview with a local paper.  It's pretty well over for her.

[secretlyevil]

Just received my mail-in ballot.

[secretlyevil]

I have a medical marijuana constitutional amendment on my ballot. I also have a couple races that don't have dems in them...

[pt716]

Both our senate seat and governorship are really close. And we have another freaking personhood amendment on the ballot. So I am not feeling all that great about the elections at the moment. And voting starts in 13 days here which seems crazy soon.

[meshaliuknits]

Oct 2, 2014 15:00:22 GMT -5 @juno said:

Oct 1, 2014 13:48:12 GMT -5 meshaliuknits said:

I've been phone polled twice and someone showed up at my door with questions once asking about my thoughts on the city counsel candidates. CITY COUNSEL!!!

@juno you getting this?

I did!  Well, I got two people from one of the mayor campaigns actually.  I wanted to tell them to get off my porch, but I'm too nice.  I'm screening my phone calls though so I've been able to avoid the phone polls; luckily they only have my landline.  I've never been polled before I moved here and now it's constant.  I'm suprised there's enough difference in outlook that extensive polling is that necessary.

Right? Everyone in my neighborhood has the same signs in their yard. Even the dude who lives next door who I *think* is republican, but seems to always vote for lady if one is a candidate regardless of party.

[StrawberryBlondie]

My city doesn't do political parties so I have to research the candidates or abstain from voting for those offices. I know that's a really petty complaint and it probably makes me a bad CEP-er but I was planning on voting party line due to lack of time & an energy-sucking baby.

[2curlydogs]

All I know is the Republican Party of WI keeps calling my house every night between 6:30-7:30. One if these days my husband is going to lose his shit like he did with the Komen people. Snatched the phone out if my hand and walked into a different room hissing "You people need to stop calling my house. What are you doing calling people at this hour. I've told you four fucking times to stop calling my family."

[mouse]

Oct 1, 2014 17:03:14 GMT -5 zelda25 said:

Only one of our two US Senators has a (semi) serious GOP challenger, and she (the Koch-backed challenger) is going down in flames, rather spectacularly. I think the GOP assumed she'd be a flawless candidate because she's a pediatric neurosurgeon and is relatively moderate.  Turns out that she's been accused of stalking both her ex-husband AND and ex-boyfriend, and just last week no-showed for both a big debate and an editorial board interview with a local paper.  It's pretty well over for her.

Hahahaha.

Hey, this is a long shot, but by any chance are you going to a fancy NARAL lunch tomorrow? I'm not going to know anyone and I'm afraid it'll be awkward. (And its CEP related: our gov and senators will be there)

[zelda25]

Oct 2, 2014 20:37:26 GMT -5 mouse said:

Oct 1, 2014 17:03:14 GMT -5 zelda25 said:

Hahahaha. 

Hey, this is a long shot, but by any chance are you going to a fancy NARAL lunch tomorrow? I'm not going to know anyone and I'm afraid it'll be awkward. (And its CEP related: our gov and senators will be there)

I'm sorry--I just saw this! No, I wasn't at that lunch--how was it?

[tacosforlife]

I know some stuff that I want to talk about, but I'm not allowed to because this was stuff H wasn't supposed to tell me.

WAAAAAAAAAH.

I want to tell you about a major upset that's going to happen!

[josieposy]

I hear mostly about the Gov race and Franken's senate race.

[mouse]

Oct 3, 2014 15:25:06 GMT -5 zelda25 said:

Oct 2, 2014 20:37:26 GMT -5 mouse said:

Hey, this is a long shot, but by any chance are you going to a fancy NARAL lunch tomorrow? I'm not going to know anyone and I'm afraid it'll be awkward. (And its CEP related: our gov and senators will be there)

I'm sorry--I just saw this! No, I wasn't at that lunch--how was it?

Awesome! I got the tickets because I'm a volunteer, and our table was all volunteers and interns, so it was nice and not awkward. I don't generally roll with people who buy fancy political lunches.

Also, compared to the fuckery out of Texas today, Oregon just blows me away. There were probably about 50 people either running for seats or already in them, standing up and committing themselves to choice. Kitz gave an absolutely lovely speech about the social contract, the foundations of community and drawing a line from that women's equality and reproductive healthcare. I'm feeling very rah-rah right now.

Oh, and being Portland someone (I think it was Charlie Hales or Brad Avakian) led a round of applause for the waitstaff. <3

[msmerymac]

Our gubernatorial race is great, because Corbett is likely getting ousted.

Unfortunately, our senators aren't up for re-election. Because I'd like new ones.