mswax It's hard to say whether you will hit your goal pace. Like gt said, everyone trains different. I usually can manage 6-7 miles at half pace on a training run, but that is it. And that feels like I'm pushing it to the max. Race day, I'm a little more rested and have some added adrenaline. If you are hitting 8:30 on the treadmill, I think that is a good indicator that your goal is doable. Good luck!