Law school enrollment at a 27-year low

[v]

Law School Enrollment Plummets to 27-Year Low: Business of Law
By Ellen Rosen Dec 18, 2014 

With the continuous news of a weak market for young lawyers, enrollment of first-year law students at accredited schools is at a 40-year low and overall enrollment is at its lowest in 27 years.

Coupled with the drop in LSAT test-takers this year, the likelihood of a turnaround remains low.

The new statistics on law schools come from the American Bar Association, which yesterday released its annual enrollment data. According to the study by the ABA Section of Legal Education and Admissions to the Bar, total law school enrollment at the 204 accredited schools is 119,775, a 6.9 percent decrease from last year and an 18 percent decrease from its record high in 2010. The number enrolled is the lowest since 1987, when there were 175 ABA-approved schools, 29 fewer than today.

The report also said there were 37,924 full-time and part-time students starting law school this fall, a 4.4 percent drop from last year and 28 percent decrease from 2010, when 52,488 students began law school, an all-time high.

The number of first-year students is the lowest since 1973, when there were only 151 accredited law schools.

William Hubbard, president of the ABA, said in a phone interview yesterday that the numbers are “an indication that prospective students have read a lot of reports about the job market.”

Almost two-thirds of accredited law schools experienced declines in first-year enrollment, and at “64 law schools, 1L declines exceeded 10 percent,” the report said, referring to first-year drops. “At 25 schools, 1L enrollment declined by more than 20 percent. Twenty-five schools reported entering classes of fewer than 100 students.”

Not all schools saw enrollment drop. Sixty-nine had increases, and at 11 schools, which the ABA hasn’t named, enrollment of first-year students increased by more than 20 percent.

The Law School Admission Council, which administers the LSAT, or Law School Admission Test, said the number of those taking the June exam dropped 9.1 percent from last year and takers of the September test dropped 8.1 percent from the year before. The number taking the December test, given Dec. 6, hasn’t yet been released.

The enrollment declines have affected the credit ratings of law schools, in particular the stand-alone schools unaffiliated with universities.

“Law schools are continuing to experience credit risk associated with falling demand,” San Francisco-based Standard & Poor’s analyst Robert Dobbins said in an e-mailed statement. “The outlook on all of the stand-alone law schools S&P rates are currently negative in part due to this continued enrollment pressure.”

The graying of the legal market may eventually provide relief for some schools, said Hubbard, a partner at Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP in Columbia, South Carolina. (BKSC)

“I don’t have a crystal ball, but if I were looking at this more broadly, a large percentage of lawyers are baby boomers” who are beginning to face retirement, he explained. “Based on those statistics, and based on unmet needs, there is reason to have some optimism, although it’s hard to predict.”

www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/law-school-enrollment-plummets-to-27-year-low-business-of-law.html

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I remember that right after I graduated from college, there was a lot of press about the law school "scam." Most people used to think about law school like medical school -- that you were pretty much guaranteed a six-figure income once you graduated. The reality was obviously much different; those BigLaw jobs were competitive, they only wanted top tier grads and with the saturated legal market in many places, you might be lucky to get a job doing doc review.

Looking at it from that perspective, I think this is a necessary self-correction.

[Mushe]

Wow, interesting! I'd love to see detailed data about enrollment at each school here in CA. I know the "good" schools here are down in enrollment, but I'm curious about the diploma mills. I have an acquaintance who's 2/3 the way through a school that's not ABA approved, despite my warnings about the job market.

[niq]

Dec 20, 2014 14:37:02 GMT -5 Mushe said:

Wow, interesting! I'd love to see detailed data about enrollment at each school here in CA. I know the "good" schools here are down in enrollment, but I'm curious about the diploma mills. I have an acquaintance who's 2/3 the way through a school that's not ABA approved, despite my warnings about the job market.

There is some good stuff here. Paul Campos started a lot of the noise about how mid & lower tier law school is a raw deal, especially if you pay full price.

www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/author/paul-campos

Even places like UCLA (which I think is one of the "big 14" or whatever) have gone from 15% acceptance rate to almost 30%.

[v]

niq -- there are some pretty crazy numbers in there.

Even back in 2004, I think anybody with an undergrad degree could have gotten in to *a* law school -- those who didn't get in somewhere probably just didn't pick shitty enough schools to apply to. Which is why I don't think anyone should be impressed by the fact that someone is a lawyer.

[Mushe]

Dec 20, 2014 16:19:29 GMT -5 niq said:

Dec 20, 2014 14:37:02 GMT -5 Mushe said:

Wow, interesting! I'd love to see detailed data about enrollment at each school here in CA. I know the "good" schools here are down in enrollment, but I'm curious about the diploma mills. I have an acquaintance who's 2/3 the way through a school that's not ABA approved, despite my warnings about the job market.

There is some good stuff here. Paul Campos started a lot of the noise about how mid & lower tier law school is a raw deal, especially if you pay full price.

www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/author/paul-campos

Even places like UCLA (which I think is one of the "big 14" or whatever) have gone from 15% acceptance rate to almost 30%.

Thanks!

[Mushe]

Wow, niq, that article was eye-opening. I had no idea about the transfer issue!

[v]

I had never heard of a 509 form, but those have a lot of really interesting information (attrition rates, transfers, bar passage rates for several jurisdictions, etc.). Wish they went back farther!

My law school's applications went up considerably (almost 20%) between 2011 and 2014 (admission rate held steady). Guess that's a positive for my alma mater?

I would have guessed that a lot more people would apply to Yale. I'm guessing a lot of people are too intimidated to bother filling out the application?