GOP Debate - Who's In, Who's out, Who's on the bubble

[ESF]

Good summary of where things stand right now on who is in and out on Thursday.


Four Republicans Are On The Bubble To Get Into The First Debate

11:35 AMJUL 31, 2015 By HARRY ENTEN


At 5 p.m. on Tuesday, a gong will be struck at the Fox News headquarters in New York. At that moment, the five most recent national primary polls, “as recognized by FOX News,”1 will be averaged, and the top 10 Republican presidential candidates2 will get invites to the network’s prime-time debate Thursday, the first of the season. (Full disclosure: I don’t have any actual evidence that a gong will be used.)

So which candidates are likely to make the prime-time debate and which are destined for the “JV” event (if our assumptions about which pollsters Fox News will use for its average are correct)? To get a sense for just how random the results can be depending on where you draw the line, we looked at the current five-poll average — as if the debate were being held Aug. 1 — as well as the previous four times the average was updated as new polls came out. A new poll has been released every few days3 over the past few weeks. These averages reveal that some candidates are basically shoo-ins; others are very unlikely to make the cut. Then there are the “on the bubble” candidates, in one day and out the next. For them, who gets in to the prime-time debate will likely be as much about luck as about where they truly stand with Republican voters.





The Likely Debaters: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump and Scott Walker

These candidates represent the top eight in the current polling average, and their numbers have been fairly consistent in the last five iterations of the five-poll average. That is, their percentage of the vote has clearly put them in the top 10 as new polls have been added and old ones taken out. All eight of these candidates have managed to stay at 5 percent or higher in the average.

The Bubble Candidates: Chris Christie, John Kasich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum

Christie has been in ninth or 10th place in each of the last five polling averages, but he’s currently only 0.6 percentage points ahead of Perry, who wouldn’t make the cut. (3.0 percent vs. 2.4 percent).

Kasich has been climbing in the polls since he announced that he was running for president on July 21, although he could easily fall back. The range of his five poll averages (1.6 percent to 2.8 percent) is the widest for any candidate polling below 5 percent.4

Perry has occupied the 10th spot in three of the last five iterations of the polling average. Now he’s in 11th place. If Perry rises by a few tenths of a percentage point, or if Kasich falls back, Perry has a chance.

Santorum’s chances of making the debate look fleeting if Fox News doesn’t round the averages — for example, from 1.6 percent, where Santorum sits currently, to 2 percent. To make the debate, he would need to tie or better his high-water mark (2.4 percent) over the last five averages and would need Kasich or Christie to fall back.

Doesn’t Look Like They’re Going Make It: Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal and George Pataki

Only Jindal is polling above 1 percent, and the other candidates in this group haven’t gotten above 1.6 percent in the past five polling averages. In fact, no one in this group has even gotten more than 2 percent in any of the last seven individual live-interview polls taken.

The Wild Card: Fox News’ Criteria

Fox News continues to be vague about which pollsters will be included in its average and how rounding will be handled. In the current five live-interview poll average, rounding doesn’t make a difference, although it could end up being important. And if we’re wrong about which pollsters will be included, we could be in for even more surprises.

Footnotes

1 Most people (including myself) assume that Fox will use only live-interview polls, but that’s not guaranteed. ^
2 Fox News has said that if two candidates are tied for the 10th spot, there will be more than 10 debate participants. ^
3 The latest Monmouth University and Suffolk University polls were conducted during the same period, but the Suffolk poll was released a day after the Monmouth survey. For the purposes of this exercise, we are counting the Suffolk poll as the more recent one. ^
4 The confidence interval shrinks as the percentage that a candidate receives in the polls gets further from 50 percent. ^

[jeaniebueller]

I am wanting Rick Perry to make the cut just because he is desperate and therefore will actually go after Trump. I will not be voting for any of the GOP candidates, but will watch. Are we doing drinking games?

[downtoearth]

I sort of feel like I don't care who gets those last two spots. How is anyone going to change their mind or form a meaningful understanding of the nuances in the different candidates' positions with 10 people trying to discuss policy in an hour or so? That is just ridiculous to begin with. It could easily take them 30 minutes or more to answer one question if everyone gets 2min to talk and then a 1 minute rebuttal. So what, we'll hear about 3 questions only, right?

[saz]

So... is this going to be a basic channel or is this only on Fox News? We don't have Fox News, which is usually a blessing, but I really want to see this.

[charminglife]

Am I the only one who didn't know this debate was being co-hosted by Facebook? I wonder if the moderators will accept question from FB users in meme form?

[simpsongal]

"Entry of the Gladiators" was playing in my head as I read this....

[ESF]

Aug 3, 2015 12:37:56 GMT -5 @majorwife said:

i kinda feel bad for jindal. being a former golden child now getting shit upon must suck

Right? That guy has pandered harder than anyone, and he's nowhere near the top ten.

Santorum won Iowa in 2012, and he's also a total loser now.

I do hope Kasich makes it in. I'd like to hear a little bit of sanity.

[FloFTW]

Aug 3, 2015 13:09:28 GMT -5 ESF said:

Aug 3, 2015 12:37:56 GMT -5 @majorwife said:

i kinda feel bad for jindal. being a former golden child now getting shit upon must suck

Right? That guy has pandered harder than anyone, and he's nowhere near the top ten.

Santorum won Iowa in 2012, and he's also a total loser now.

I do hope Kasich makes it in. I'd like to hear a little bit of sanity.

Don't be fooled!! He's not completely sane!!!

How public is Fox making the selection criteria? I would imagine the bubble candidates are going a little crazy trying to determine how to get in.

[tacosforlife]

Aug 3, 2015 12:46:28 GMT -5 @mrsbecky said:

Aug 3, 2015 12:16:48 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

I am wanting Rick Perry to make the cut just because he is desperate and therefore will actually go after Trump. I will not be voting for any of the GOP candidates, but will watch. Are we doing drinking games?

Of course.

I am doing this hardcore get-in-shape thing, so I am not.

I have had only one sip of alcohol in the last week. I am not sure I will be able to handle watching sober.

[josieposy]

Aug 3, 2015 12:54:39 GMT -5 saz said:

So... is this going to be a basic channel or is this only on Fox News? We don't have Fox News, which is usually a blessing, but I really want to see this.

Oh damn, this is a good question. I don't have cable. I might have to follow this on twitter or something.

You people with cable have to keep us informed ok?!!

[Deleted]

I don't even know who Kasich is. Off to Google...

[saz]

Aug 3, 2015 13:17:37 GMT -5 josieposy said:

Aug 3, 2015 12:54:39 GMT -5 saz said:

So... is this going to be a basic channel or is this only on Fox News? We don't have Fox News, which is usually a blessing, but I really want to see this.

Oh damn, this is a good question. I don't have cable. I might have to follow this on twitter or something.

You people with cable have to keep us informed ok?!!

Any chance they will do some kind of live stream?

[FloFTW]

Aug 3, 2015 13:18:57 GMT -5 @kcpokergal said:

I don't even know who Kasich is. Off to Google...

He's the governor of Ohio, and he's trying to destroy public education, all unions ever, and Women. HTH.

[tacosforlife]

Aug 3, 2015 13:21:23 GMT -5 FloFTW said:

Aug 3, 2015 13:18:57 GMT -5 @kcpokergal said:

I don't even know who Kasich is. Off to Google...

He's the governor of Ohio, and he's trying to destroy public education, all unions ever, and Women be Scott Walker. HTH.

FIFY.

[aurora]

So, no on Carly according to all. Anyone want to speculate on how not one of the to 10 candidates for thr R nomination is female? I mean, I realize we only have 1 running out of 17, but why is that? I the voter base too sexist to want a woman elected? Are there fewer powerful women who lean R than lean D, and if so because of party platforms? Am I making a debate out of nothing because Clinton is a fluke for the D's, and without her the D lineup would also be all men?

[zoegirltx]

should be quite a shit show....can't wait!

[FloFTW]

I wasn't able to get tickets but I'm going to be making a million Starbucks trips to see if I can spot the CELEBS.

[NewOrleans]

Aug 3, 2015 13:09:28 GMT -5 ESF said:

Aug 3, 2015 12:37:56 GMT -5 @majorwife said:

i kinda feel bad for jindal. being a former golden child now getting shit upon must suck

I do hope Kasich makes it in. I'd like to hear a little bit of sanity.

Wait, what?  No.  You will not find what you seek, grasshopper.

[Deleted]

10 people is a small crowd. Not a conversation.

[ESF]

Aug 3, 2015 13:42:36 GMT -5 aurora said:

So, no on Carly according to all. Anyone want to speculate on how not one of the to 10 candidates for thr R nomination is female? I mean, I realize we only have 1 running out of 17, but why is that? I the voter base too sexist to want a woman elected? Are there fewer powerful women who lean R than lean D, and if so because of party platforms? Am I making a debate out of nothing because Clinton is a fluke for the D's, and without her the D lineup would also be all men?

I don't think her poor showing is simply because nobody in the base wants a woman in power. She laid off thousands of workers, ran HP in the ground and was canned, and lost her bid for the Senate.    To the extent gender has anything to do with it, I think the public would be more willing to forgive a man for massive failures, whereas a woman doesn't usually get second chances.
 

[ESF]

Aug 3, 2015 19:51:42 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Aug 3, 2015 13:09:28 GMT -5 ESF said:

I do hope Kasich makes it in. I'd like to hear a little bit of sanity.

Wait, what?  No.  You will not find what you seek, grasshopper.

LOL.

I don't want Kasich as president. I don't agree with him on anything that I'm aware of.  His support for vote suppression and his crack down on choice repulse me.

But he's also not engaging in hate speech.  He generally seems more interested in finding compromises than engaging in protracted ideological grandstanding.  For example, he's come out and said he's open to a compromise on immigration because a good deal that brings both sides together is better than partisan gridlock.  

I think he's the closest thing in the race to showing us what a civil, intelligent GOP could look like if they purged the wing nuts.  He isn't the future of the GOP, but he's a hell of a lot closer to what it should be than anyone else in that clown car.  Rand Paul could have been that guy, but apparently, being an asshole is a better strategy than fostering serious debate on criminal justice and wiretapping. 

[katfco]

I don't want Kasich to have any kind of platform, at all, except this. This is a good platform for him:



One of my biggest fears is that he will get the nomination precisely because he does seem like the more rational candidate. He'll appeal to a wider base. 

[stephm0188]

Aug 3, 2015 20:40:16 GMT -5 katfco said:

I don't want Kasich to have any kind of platform, at all, except this. This is a good platform for him:



One of my biggest fears is that he will get the nomination precisely because he does seem like the more rational candidate. He'll appeal to a wider base. 

Yes. The Dems will need a STRONG candidate. Kasich was re-elected not because people love him, but because the Democratic party in Ohio didn't have a strong candidate. SB 5 was a huge cluster, but Kasich is smooth enough to let that kind of crap slide off and still come out looking okay. 

Of all the clown car candidates, yeah, he is probably most sane. That's not saying much, though. 

[FloFTW]

Aug 3, 2015 20:46:36 GMT -5 stephm0188 said:

Aug 3, 2015 20:40:16 GMT -5 katfco said:

I don't want Kasich to have any kind of platform, at all, except this. This is a good platform for him:



One of my biggest fears is that he will get the nomination precisely because he does seem like the more rational candidate. He'll appeal to a wider base. 

Yes. The Dems will need a STRONG candidate. Kasich was re-elected not because people love him, but because the Democratic party in Ohio didn't have a strong candidate. SB 5 was a huge cluster, but Kasich is smooth enough to let that kind of crap slide off and still come out looking okay. 

Of all the clown car candidates, yeah, he is probably most sane. That's not saying much, though. 

Yes. I was so, SO bummed by the piss poor Fitzgerald campaign. Admittedly I am in a very liberal area of Ohio but even I know Republicans that DESPISE Kasich. Basically anyone that is a teacher or loves a teacher wants to spit in his face. And that's a lot of people. Also he denies climate change. And slips personhood language into budgets. Etc etc.

[aurora]

Aug 3, 2015 20:06:14 GMT -5 ESF said:

Aug 3, 2015 13:42:36 GMT -5 aurora said:

So, no on Carly according to all. Anyone want to speculate on how not one of the to 10 candidates for thr R nomination is female? I mean, I realize we only have 1 running out of 17, but why is that? I the voter base too sexist to want a woman elected? Are there fewer powerful women who lean R than lean D, and if so because of party platforms? Am I making a debate out of nothing because Clinton is a fluke for the D's, and without her the D lineup would also be all men?

I don't think her poor showing is simply because nobody in the base wants a woman in power. She laid off thousands of workers, ran HP in the ground and was canned, and lost her bid for the Senate.    To the extent gender has anything to do with it, I think the public would be more willing to forgive a man for massive failures, whereas a woman doesn't usually get second chances.
 

I didn't express myself clearly, but wasn't really reflecting on Fiorina in particular, but rather just the fact that out of 10 allowed in the debate, the R's couldn't dredge up even a single viable person without a penis?

[aurora]

Aug 3, 2015 21:48:11 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Aug 3, 2015 13:42:36 GMT -5 aurora said:

So, no on Carly according to all. Anyone want to speculate on how not one of the to 10 candidates for thr R nomination is female? I mean, I realize we only have 1 running out of 17, but why is that? I the voter base too sexist to want a woman elected? Are there fewer powerful women who lean R than lean D, and if so because of party platforms? Am I making a debate out of nothing because Clinton is a fluke for the D's, and without her the D lineup would also be all men?

I think it's the bolded, plus the fact that she came out of nowhere and hasn't really gotten a lot of press.  Unless you're up on recent CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, you'd have no idea who she is.  At least Pataki and Graham have some sort of "I've heard of that guy before..." factor and they still aren't making the cut, either.

Americans are sexist, and our politics reflect that.  It has nothing to do with R/D, IMO.  Clinton is a fluke.

Sadly, I worry that you're right. Sigh.