Bernie closing in on Hillary

[summer]

Business Insider

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) closed a 30-point gap with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to virtually tie her in a new national survey published Friday.


The poll, from Quinnipiac University, found Clinton leading Sanders among national Democratic primary voters, 44% to 42%.

That was a wild swing from a mid-December Quinnipiac poll that found Clinton leading 61% to 30% nationally over Sanders.

"Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton," said Tim Malloy, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.

The Quinnipiac survey is the most bullish for Sanders on a national scale recently. Clinton remained ahead of Sanders in a Real Clear Politics average of recent national surveys by about 13 points.

Still, the Friday survey presented fresh signs of momentum for Sanders, who surprised much of the political world when he cameclose to overtaking Clinton in the Monday-night Iowa caucuses. He also appears primed for a win in New Hampshire, which holds its primaries next Tuesday; he's up by more than 20 points in an average of recent polls of the state.

The Quinnipiac poll found that Sanders would fare better than Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups, an argument he has started to make on the campaign trail. For example, while Clinton would lose to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) by 7 points, Sanders would tie him, according to the survey. He would also double Clinton's margin of victory over real-estate magnate Donald Trump.

For his part, Trump continued to lead on the Republican side, according to Quinnipiac. He received 31% of the vote, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 22% and Rubio at 19%.

[summer]

There is no way Sanders ties with Rubio. The Socialist?? Here in America? I don't believe it

[ESF]

I do not believe this. I refuse to believe this. No. No no no.

[blink]

I think it has to be pretty easy to tie someone when your other opponent (in your party) is a woman, so everything she says is wrong and harpy-ish, and the other political party views you as such an easy target its not even worth their time to start going in on you yet.

I mean its like saying that THIS BRAND NEW DIET IS THE BESTEST DIET IN THE WHOLE WORLD and it has closed the gap in diet popularity. But this new diet hasn't been examined and analyzed by actual scientists yet. And when someone begins to criticize it, this diet decides to yell about how other diets contain too much sugar as well, so what's the problem. WHY ARE YOU HATING ON THIS DIET? GAWD YOU DON'T KNOW MY LYFE!

[One Girl In All The World]

This cannot be real life.

[tacosforlife]

[FloFTW]

You've gotta be fucking kidding me. I never say this, but, fucking millennials.

[heyjude]

Depressing.

[mcsangel2]

If Hillary does not get the democratic nomination, I am just done with this country.

[heyjude]

I am happy I will be able to drink again soon.

(Llalalalalala I can't hear you CDC lalalalalalal)

[Michelle]

This is based on his progress in mostly white states.

Once they get to more diverse states she will clearly be in the lead.

Don't worry - Hillary will be the nominee unless the emails crash her chances.

You need to worry most if Rubio gets the nod for GOP. Independents with liberal social policies will not vote for Cruz, Trump or some of the others. They/we might vote for Rubio who isn't as passionate about stealing the right to choose away from women and other social issues.

[ladybug2002]

I swear, I will kill someone before this election is over if I have to keep seeing "feel the bern" fucking everywhere.

[elleblue]

Feb 5, 2016 12:56:54 GMT -5 Michelle said:

This is based on his progress in mostly white states.

Once they get to more diverse states she will clearly be in the lead.

Don't worry - Hillary will be the nominee unless the emails crash her chances.

You need to worry most if Rubio gets the nod for GOP. Independents with liberal social policies will not vote for Cruz, Trump or some of the others. They/we might vote for Rubio who isn't as passionate about stealing the right to choose away from women and other social issues.

I do agree with the bolded but I can't lie and say I'm not getting nervous (and angry and irritated but that's besides the point). 

[Deleted]

Feb 5, 2016 12:56:54 GMT -5 Michelle said:

This is based on his progress in mostly white states.

Once they get to more diverse states she will clearly be in the lead.

Don't worry - Hillary will be the nominee unless the emails crash her chances.

You need to worry most if Rubio gets the nod for GOP. Independents with liberal social policies will not vote for Cruz, Trump or some of the others. They/we might vote for Rubio who isn't as passionate about stealing the right to choose away from women and other social issues.

Rubio is definitely passionate about it. He was also dubbed the most anti-gay candidate. He's just better at not being so loud about it.

Trump would probably be the better option for women, and that's not saying much.

[Michelle]

Feb 5, 2016 14:25:49 GMT -5 @bugginnine said:

Feb 5, 2016 12:56:54 GMT -5 Michelle said:

This is based on his progress in mostly white states.

Once they get to more diverse states she will clearly be in the lead.

Don't worry - Hillary will be the nominee unless the emails crash her chances.

You need to worry most if Rubio gets the nod for GOP. Independents with liberal social policies will not vote for Cruz, Trump or some of the others. They/we might vote for Rubio who isn't as passionate about stealing the right to choose away from women and other social issues.

Rubio is definitely passionate about it. He was also dubbed the most anti-gay candidate. He's just better at not being so loud about it.

Trump would probably be the better option for women, and that's not saying much.

I could be wrong about loud =/= passionate, but I think that when it comes to the issues he will try to make landmark impact on, Immigration is toward the top. And he is pragmatic about that - I think he could negotiate a win for Dream Act-impacted Foreign Nationals. 

If the Senate and Congress could actually get anti-choice legislation toward him, I do worry he would sign it. But I don't see him screaming for it and refusing to look at anything else until it gets to him like I think Cruz would do. And he wouldn't be screaming to kick out all the Muslims like Trump.

I actually think he is the candidate that the firmly liberal camp should be worried about the most.

[ESF]

This is how I feel about Marco Rubio.

www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/05/taking-down-marco-rubio-is-easier-than-you-think.html

Except of course if Sanders is the nominee. Then the GOP could nominate Rubio's boot and still win the race.

[chedifuen]

I'm not really worried about Bernie getting the nomination. I just can't see this working out in his favor and momentum is going to swing in her favor really quickly once we get to South Carolina.

I am worried BS won't campaign hard for her and won't do enough to bring his followers over to her.

[iamlaila]

National polls for the primary and general election are not really that helpful though. Primaries are won based on delegates and superdelegates for the Dems; general elections are won based on electoral votes (just ask Al Gore who won the popular vote, oh and it doesn't hurt to have the Supreme Court on ones side). Polls so early in the process (like those matching up hypothetical Dem and Repub nominees) are also very inaccurate and misleading. Down-ballot Democratic candidates will also be slaughtered if Bernie is on the top of the ticket.

[wackadoo]

Feb 5, 2016 20:35:06 GMT -5 iamlaila said:

National polls for the primary and general election are not really that helpful though. Primaries are won based on delegates and superdelegates for the Dems; general elections are won based on electoral votes (just ask Al Gore who won the popular vote, oh and it doesn't hurt to have the Supreme Court on ones side). Polls so early in the process (like those matching up hypothetical Dem and Repub nominees) are also very inaccurate and misleading. Down-ballot Democratic candidates will also be slaughtered if Bernie is on the top of the ticket.

I agree that hypothetical match-up polls at this point are premature.  I have to admit, though that this is making me nervous (and mad), but keep telling myself that Bernie does not have the broad support that Obama did across so many demographics and it will be ok.    


Could you explain the bolded a bit for me?  How does Bernie vs. Clinton affect choices in the down-ballot?  I realize this may be a really simple minded question. :-)

[iamlaila]

Feb 5, 2016 21:45:36 GMT -5 wackadoo said:

Feb 5, 2016 20:35:06 GMT -5 iamlaila said:

National polls for the primary and general election are not really that helpful though. Primaries are won based on delegates and superdelegates for the Dems; general elections are won based on electoral votes (just ask Al Gore who won the popular vote, oh and it doesn't hurt to have the Supreme Court on ones side). Polls so early in the process (like those matching up hypothetical Dem and Repub nominees) are also very inaccurate and misleading. Down-ballot Democratic candidates will also be slaughtered if Bernie is on the top of the ticket.

I agree that hypothetical match-up polls at this point are premature.  I have to admit, though that this is making me nervous (and mad), but keep telling myself that Bernie does not have the broad support that Obama did across so many demographics and it will be ok.    


Could you explain the bolded a bit for me?  How does Bernie vs. Clinton affect choices in the down-ballot?  I realize this may be a really simple minded question. :-)

The parties try to nominate their strongest candidate at the top of the ballot because there are usually coat-tail effects (since many voters cast a straight-party ticket).  In 2008, for instance, Obama was a strong candidate who was able to bring out many groups, esp. African-Americans.  That support trickled down to Democrats at the state and county-levels.  Even in traditionally "red states" like Texas, in certain areas like Harris County (Houston) the turnout among Democrats ushered in many Democratic judges (in Texas, judges face partisan elections) among other offices (although Houston leans more liberal than other parts of TX, the DA's office and most judicial posts are still typically controlled by Republicans).  A lack-luster Democratic presidential candidate or one who lacks a strong appeal among key groups for Democrats like African-Americans or Hispanics will mean low to mediocre turnout so Democratic candidates in state-level or local races will suffer (or won't fully reap the benefits of a coat-tail effect).

[wackadoo]

Thanks for responding, iamlaila. That makes perfect sense - I wasn't thinking about the impact of turnout.

[annieblah]

All o can add is that I saw some dude wearing a Bernie 2026 pin at a local fest today. He was over 50.

[elleblue]

Feb 6, 2016 21:14:05 GMT -5 annieblah said:

All o can add is that I saw some dude wearing a Bernie 2026 pin at a local fest today. He was over 50.

Is that a typo? Because he's pretty optimistic if he thinks Bernie is going to be in the shape to be president in 2026. 

[annieblah]

Feb 6, 2016 22:22:28 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Feb 6, 2016 21:14:05 GMT -5 annieblah said:

All o can add is that I saw some dude wearing a Bernie 2026 pin at a local fest today. He was over 50.

Is that a typo? Because he's pretty optimistic if he thinks Bernie is going to be in the shape to be president in 2026. 

damn, yes 2016. Oops