Utah-Arizona primary thread

[wambam]

Is there anything to talk about here? I noticed that the UT polls don't close until 2AM. Whaaaaaat? Bless those poll workers for being there so late.

[smock]

I think the long hours in Utah are because they're allowing online voting until 11pm. Which is awesome, because it should make it much easier for many people to vote versus the traditional caucus.

And don't forget, Dems in Idaho are also voting today!

[niemand88f]

Mar 22, 2016 7:53:55 GMT -5 smock said:

I think the long hours in Utah are because they're allowing online voting until 11pm. Which is awesome, because it should make it much easier for many people to vote versus the traditional caucus.

And don't forget, Dems in Idaho are also voting today!

Only Republicans are online, Democrats caucus from 6pm-8:30pm (have to be in line by 8:30pm). I really want to go vote for Hillary but I don't know if we'll be able to get way across town to the caucus location by 8:30.

I think Bernie will win Utah, but hopefully not a huge margin. But I've gotten an appalling amount of mail & 2 door hangers in the last week and is really pushing people to go vote. Nothing at all from Clinton. 

Cruz should beat Trump and might even get a big majority, Mormons don't generally like Trump.

[mcsangel2]

I'm in Phoenix and heading out to the poll in about an hour. I heard on the news last night that Arizona is considering switching to a caucus format after this year. BOOOOOOOOOO.

ETA: Hillary is expected to win by a big margin here. Also Trump, I think by at least 10 percent.

[heyjude]

HRC will probably lose Utah but win Arizona. Have no idea about Idaho.

[ESF]

Mar 22, 2016 8:01:14 GMT -5 niemand88f said:

Mar 22, 2016 7:53:55 GMT -5 smock said:

I think the long hours in Utah are because they're allowing online voting until 11pm. Which is awesome, because it should make it much easier for many people to vote versus the traditional caucus.

And don't forget, Dems in Idaho are also voting today!

Only Republicans are online, Democrats caucus from 6pm-8:30pm (have to be in line by 8:30pm). I really want to go vote for Hillary but I don't know if we'll be able to get way across town to the caucus location by 8:30.

I think Bernie will win Utah, but hopefully not a huge margin. But I've gotten an appalling amount of mail & 2 door hangers in the last week and is really pushing people to go vote. Nothing at all from Clinton. 

Cruz should beat Trump and might even get a big majority, Mormons don't generally like Trump.

I saw some article about how a couple polls were run in the state, asking voters to choose between Clinton and Trump, and Sanders and Trump, and the democrats came out ahead a few points in each. Apparently they hate him so much that Utah could go blue if Trump is the nominee. Let that sink in.

[wambam]

Mar 22, 2016 10:36:59 GMT -5 ESF said:

Mar 22, 2016 8:01:14 GMT -5 niemand88f said:

Only Republicans are online, Democrats caucus from 6pm-8:30pm (have to be in line by 8:30pm). I really want to go vote for Hillary but I don't know if we'll be able to get way across town to the caucus location by 8:30.

I think Bernie will win Utah, but hopefully not a huge margin. But I've gotten an appalling amount of mail & 2 door hangers in the last week and is really pushing people to go vote. Nothing at all from Clinton. 

Cruz should beat Trump and might even get a big majority, Mormons don't generally like Trump.

I saw some article about how a couple polls were run in the state, asking voters to choose between Clinton and Trump, and Sanders and Trump, and the democrats came out ahead a few points in each. Apparently they hate him so much that Utah could go blue if Trump is the nominee. Let that sink in.

Did the article discuss the specific reasons Mormons hate him? I mean, duh, he's pretty hate able, but I didn't know if there were reasons why Mormons specifically don't like him.

[elleblue]

Mar 22, 2016 10:28:12 GMT -5 heyjude said:

HRC will probably lose Utah but win Arizona. Have no idea about Idaho.

I am not feeling very enthused. A Berner on my feed posted this article which says Nate Silver now predicts Bernie will win the next eight states (excluding Arizona). 

I'm so tired of it all, I want off this merry go round. 

[heyjude]

Mar 22, 2016 10:39:32 GMT -5 wambam said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:36:59 GMT -5 ESF said:

I saw some article about how a couple polls were run in the state, asking voters to choose between Clinton and Trump, and Sanders and Trump, and the democrats came out ahead a few points in each. Apparently they hate him so much that Utah could go blue if Trump is the nominee. Let that sink in.

Did the article discuss the specific reasons Mormons hate him? I mean, duh, he's pretty hate able, but I didn't know if there were reasons why Mormons specifically don't like him.

He's crass and vulgar. Probably didn't help that he called Romney "not a real Mormon" the other day.

[ESF]

Mar 22, 2016 10:39:32 GMT -5 wambam said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:36:59 GMT -5 ESF said:

I saw some article about how a couple polls were run in the state, asking voters to choose between Clinton and Trump, and Sanders and Trump, and the democrats came out ahead a few points in each. Apparently they hate him so much that Utah could go blue if Trump is the nominee. Let that sink in.

Did the article discuss the specific reasons Mormons hate him? I mean, duh, he's pretty hate able, but I didn't know if there were reasons why Mormons specifically don't like him.

No, I don't think so. I only skimmed and can't recall where I saw it, but the article was basically a "GOP will get fucked by the electoral college if Trump is the nominee."  Of course,odds are excellent that they'll get fucked by the electoral college, regardless....

My take on the Mormon dislike - they occupy this weird space, where despite being Christian and having a lot in common with the evangelicals and Christian right, they are in some ways a minority group. Trump is a lot of things, but he's not a holy roller. He's not pedaling theocracy, he's peddling hate. And it could very well be that they see themselves as a potential target. 

I also think that while Mormons have their own racial demons and history to answer for, it's very different than the Baptists and other evangelical religions, the development of which cannot be separated from slavery and its legacies. So the racial undertones in Trump's messages may very well be a huge turn off too.

[alexis]

Mar 22, 2016 10:39:32 GMT -5 wambam said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:36:59 GMT -5 ESF said:

I saw some article about how a couple polls were run in the state, asking voters to choose between Clinton and Trump, and Sanders and Trump, and the democrats came out ahead a few points in each. Apparently they hate him so much that Utah could go blue if Trump is the nominee. Let that sink in.

Did the article discuss the specific reasons Mormons hate him? I mean, duh, he's pretty hate able, but I didn't know if there were reasons why Mormons specifically don't like him.

I came across this article the other day. www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/mormon-voters-really-dont-like-donald-trump-heres-why#.uqqxwYdEN

It says that Mormons tend to be pro immigration due to the fact that many of them go on foreign missions.

Also they disagree with banning Muslims. After Trump said we should ban all Muslims the church released a statement about the importance of religious freedom and the Utah governor was the only republican governor to say that Syrian refugees were welcome in his state.

The crassness is certainly not helping.

[laurack]

Mar 22, 2016 11:01:26 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:44:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

I am not feeling very enthused. A Berner on my feed posted this article which says Nate Silver now predicts Bernie will win the next eight states (excluding Arizona). 

I'm so tired of it all, I want off this merry go round. 

Fivethirtyeight does not seem that enthused about Bernie's chances in NY, which is in early April and I think within the next eight states, so I don't know where they got that from.  

I believe that's the 9th. So Bernie could do well in the next 8 states (Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming). Then, he'll probably take another downturn from there when it's time for NY, CT, MD, PA etc.

I don't see Bernie winning Arizona at all, but the other 7 maybe

[elleblue]

Mar 22, 2016 11:01:26 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:44:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

I am not feeling very enthused. A Berner on my feed posted this article which says Nate Silver now predicts Bernie will win the next eight states (excluding Arizona). 

I'm so tired of it all, I want off this merry go round. 

Fivethirtyeight does not seem that enthused about Bernie's chances in NY, which is in early April and I think within the next eight states, so I don't know where they got that from.  

I didn't realize New York was one of the eight. Yeah, she's polling at what, 50 pts ahead of Bernie? I figured (hoped) it was exaggerated but I honestly didn't have the heart to go to Fivethirtyeight directly, lol. 

I'm just supremely tired of the claims of a media blackout on Bernie and that he's going to be the nominee even though the math isn't in his favor because the delegates will shift to him, and so on. I was hoping for another day similar to last week so that the gap will widen a bit more. And here I was thinking it'd all be decided before us here in California get to weigh in in June. 

[pumpkincat]

I just finished voting in Arizona. Maricopa county was allowing for voting at any location in the county as this was the only thing on the ballot.

Line was about 30mins. We had some interesting people in line with us (I brought my 7 year old daughter). A Trump supporter was pretty vocal telling a Bernie supporter his shirt violated the electioneering laws (it didn't) and many people were very vocal about their preferences, but overall relatively civil.

There were also petitioners out front collecting signatures for candidates for Mayor and City Council to appear on the ballot later in the year.

[jigsy]

I've put in some thought about the R side of the primaries in relation to my home state (Utah). I am a far left progressive, my dad was a pretty staunch R with libertarian leanings. My dad passed away a year and a half ago, and one of the most bittersweet parts of this primary season for myself is that he isn't around for me to argue with...I have often thought about what he would think of his party, and while he'd never vote for a democrat, he certainly wouldn't vote for Trump...pretty sure he'd go with one of the third party contenders that will pop up. As much as I hate to say it, I think he would support Cruz the most. I half think that because it is the one person that would make me the most upset, and he had a knack for making my head explode sometimes.

As to why I think that is the case. I think the PP's hit the nail on the head. The hateful tone of Trump is not what Mormons like about the R party. While they have their issues with race and other minority groups, I do think Mormons think of themselves as inclusive and welcoming of all races. I mean, I remember being taught about how great the Mormon pioneers were to slaves...sure, they couldn't hold the priesthood or whatever, but early Mormons were abolitionists, especially as they moved westward.

I think Trump's outspokenness toward Muslims also make Mormons less than supportive. They experienced a lot of religious persecution, so I think they are generally very supportive of the freedom of religion. It wasn't all that long ago that Mormons were also the target of politicians and many died for their beliefs, so I don't think they particularly like hearing a potential president express those views towards another religion.

[smock]

Mar 22, 2016 11:09:52 GMT -5 laurack said:

Mar 22, 2016 11:01:26 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Fivethirtyeight does not seem that enthused about Bernie's chances in NY, which is in early April and I think within the next eight states, so I don't know where they got that from.  

I believe that's the 9th. So Bernie could do well in the next 8 states (Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming). Then, he'll probably take another downturn from there when it's time for NY, CT, MD, PA etc.

I don't see Bernie winning Arizona at all, but the other 7 maybe

Yeah, that article is really stretching the truth to claim that Nate Silver thinks Bernie could win the next 8 contests. Clinton is up by a really big margin (20+ points) in recent polls in Arizona, and apparently polls in Idaho are about tied, where Bernie has a single-digit lead in Utah polls. But Arizona has 75 delegates, whereas Idaho and Utah COMBINED are worth 56 delegates--so even if Bernie wins by a small margin in Utah and Idaho, he'll probably fall even further behind in delegates.

He is not going to catch HRC at this point in pledged delegates, which is why he's floating weird scenarios about pledged delegates switching sides and wooing superdelegates.

[heyjude]

www.politico.com/story/2016/03/sanders-clinton-arizona-idaho-utah-221039

[debatethis]

Mar 22, 2016 10:59:50 GMT -5 ESF said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:39:32 GMT -5 wambam said:

Did the article discuss the specific reasons Mormons hate him? I mean, duh, he's pretty hate able, but I didn't know if there were reasons why Mormons specifically don't like him.

No, I don't think so. I only skimmed and can't recall where I saw it, but the article was basically a "GOP will get fucked by the electoral college if Trump is the nominee."  Of course,odds are excellent that they'll get fucked by the electoral college, regardless....

My take on the Mormon dislike - they occupy this weird space, where despite being Christian and having a lot in common with the evangelicals and Christian right, they are in some ways a minority group. Trump is a lot of things, but he's not a holy roller. He's not pedaling theocracy, he's peddling hate. And it could very well be that they see themselves as a potential target. 

I also think that while Mormons have their own racial demons and history to answer for, it's very different than the Baptists and other evangelical religions, the development of which cannot be separated from slavery and its legacies. So the racial undertones in Trump's messages may very well be a huge turn off too.

My somewhat educated guess is that they have a distinct or extra level of dislike for him due to his marital infidelities and multiple marriages/divorces. LDS divorce rates mirror national rates or are even a little higher, but they toe the line of Family is Eternal no matter what and his brazen disregard for the sanctity of marriage probably leaves a really foul taste in their mouths.

[magpie]

I excused one of my students from class this morning to go vote (in Arizona). She ended up going to two different locations because she didn't know where the polling place was (it was her first time), but came back proudly with her first "I voted" sticker. She's a young Republican and I have no idea who she voted for (I kind of don't want to know...).

I live in an pretty liberal part of Arizona and most of my friends here are huge Bernie supporters. When I said that I voted for Hilary it was met with shocked silence and wide eyes filled with horror.

[elleblue]

Well that's a new one. Were you all aware that the primary system is completely rigged to the point that the DNC arranged for the pro-Hillary states to vote first?

[ESF]

Mar 22, 2016 11:01:26 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:44:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

I am not feeling very enthused. A Berner on my feed posted this article which says Nate Silver now predicts Bernie will win the next eight states (excluding Arizona). 

I'm so tired of it all, I want off this merry go round. 

Fivethirtyeight does not seem that enthused about Bernie's chances in NY, which is in early April and I think within the next eight states, so I don't know where they got that from.  

NY primary is on April 19. I know this because I will be on a cruise ship then, and H and I actually spent time figuring out whether we'd miss any Hot Primary Action while we are away.

Fortunately, the answer is no. NY is the only primary that day. We'll have real time CNN in our room, polls close in NY at 9 pm ET, and I will be in the same time zone. I won't have internet access, but damn it, I will be drinking rum punch while Wolf gives me my key race updates.  

[mcsangel2]

Mar 22, 2016 11:17:36 GMT -5 pumpkincat said:

I just finished voting in Arizona. Maricopa county was allowing for voting at any location in the county as this was the only thing on the ballot.

Line was about 30mins. We had some interesting people in line with us (I brought my 7 year old daughter). A Trump supporter was pretty vocal telling a Bernie supporter his shirt violated the electioneering laws (it didn't) and many people were very vocal about their preferences, but overall relatively civil.

There were also petitioners out front collecting signatures for candidates for Mayor and City Council to appear on the ballot later in the year.

My line was about 75 minutes. CRAZY. It wasn't even that long at the 2008 general election (last time I remember super high turnout). I goofed up not leaving home early and I was really late to work.

[aurora]

Mar 22, 2016 12:31:30 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Well that's a new one. Were you all aware that the primary system is completely rigged to the point that the DNC arranged for the pro-Hillary states to vote first?

Wow, that's a pretty impressive conspiracy!

[OscarQ]

Mar 22, 2016 12:31:30 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Well that's a new one. Were you all aware that the primary system is completely rigged to the point that the DNC arranged for the pro-Hillary states to vote first?

Well then maybe he should have run on his own party's ticket.  Oh wait....

Our party, our rules.  You want to play in our game, this is it.

Also, I realize this rigging thing is nonsense but even if it isn't it's not like he couldn't have researched the damn rules before deciding to run as a D!  Argh, so much stupid.

[Deleted]

Mar 22, 2016 12:18:16 GMT -5 heyjude said:

www.politico.com/story/2016/03/sanders-clinton-arizona-idaho-utah-221039

(Disclaimer: I live in a border city between WA and ID. Work/ vacation in ID but am a WA resident)

I think that of the deomocrata who would caucus in ID, they're more likely to be Bernie-style hard core liberals (almost Libertarians) than Hillary centrists. It takes a pretty thick skin/ bleeding heart to be a Democrat in Idaho.

It also doesn't make much sense for HRC to spend resources on ID's 27 delegates. The state will go red in the general so why waste resources building a HRC network here?

WA's caucus in on Saturday and I can't go because of a baby shower. I'm pissed. Why no primary so I can vote absentee?!

[jojoandleo]

Mar 22, 2016 10:44:58 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Mar 22, 2016 10:28:12 GMT -5 heyjude said:

HRC will probably lose Utah but win Arizona. Have no idea about Idaho.

I am not feeling very enthused. A Berner on my feed posted this article which says Nate Silver now predicts Bernie will win the next eight states (excluding Arizona). 

I'm so tired of it all, I want off this merry go round. 

Seriously. I am dizzy and sick all the time. Granted, that may be due to the alcohol this election has driven me to consume, but still!

[jojoandleo]

Mar 22, 2016 11:12:28 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Mar 22, 2016 11:01:26 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Fivethirtyeight does not seem that enthused about Bernie's chances in NY, which is in early April and I think within the next eight states, so I don't know where they got that from.  

I didn't realize New York was one of the eight. Yeah, she's polling at what, 50 pts ahead of Bernie? I figured (hoped) it was exaggerated but I honestly didn't have the heart to go to Fivethirtyeight directly, lol. 

I'm just supremely tired of the claims of a media blackout on Bernie and that he's going to be the nominee even though the math isn't in his favor because the delegates will shift to him, and so on. I was hoping for another day similar to last week so that the gap will widen a bit more. And here I was thinking it'd all be decided before us here in California get to weigh in in June. 

It doesn't look like they have predicted Utah or Arizona on 538. The polls show Clinton way ahead in Arizona, though, so no idea where they got their info. NY is number 9, though. Utah is polling for Bernie, but only within the last few weeks. Who knows how it will turn out. I am not too concerned about Utah and Idaho. I will be if Arizona goes Bernie.

They are predicting a Trump win in Arizona and Cruz win in Utah.

[karinothing]

Looks like AZ is having a lot of trouble at the polls - usuncut.com/news/arizona-polling-disaster/

[mcsangel2]

Mar 22, 2016 19:07:55 GMT -5 karinothing said:

Looks like AZ is having a lot of trouble at the polls - usuncut.com/news/arizona-polling-disaster/

First I've heard of that today - it's not even on the major newspaper's website. FWIW, I changed party affiliation from Independent to Dem a month ago, and had no issues, nor did I hear of any while I was there. But the bin for provisional ballots was already full when I was there at 9:30.

For the record lines, I read that the number of polling places has been reduced from 200 last time to 60 this time, due to cost. I also read that they are considering switching to caucuses after this year, also due to cost.

With these mentions of 4 hour waits, I'm glad I went this morning and only had to wait just over an hour.

[karinothing]

mcsangel2, It has been all over my FB, but my friends in AZ work in politics so I am guessing that is why. I did see that the polling places were reduced to 60, which is insane. I guess maybe more people will vote by mail or early vote in the future?

I think AZ has always had issues with provisional ballots, I remember them being used a lot in 2004 (the last time I voted in AZ!). At least they have time to fix before the general (hopefully)