Brexit update

[mrsukyankee]

Several things:

1. T. May cancels vote in Parliament for tomorrow
2. The EU have stated that they will NOT renegotiate a deal

So, that means we have three options:

1. This deal - which members of the Parliament will not vote for as it's basically what we have now without any decision making ability in the EU and which is pissing off the hard leavers who voted for racism (aka, no freedom of movement at all)
2. No deal - which would destroy the country & piss off pretty much all of N. Ireland and Ireland, we'd lose Scotland and all those who voted against Brexit
3. No Brexit - which would piss off a small number of people and probably cause some serious issues but would be the best for the country.

In other words, we're screwed. Seriously and utterly screwed. And I'm, yet again, pissed off at the idiocy of even calling for this vote in the manner they did. Fuckers.

[sakoro]

mrsukyankee, have you heard of ordinary people stocking up on medication and other imported essentials in anticipation of chaos at the border with a no deal Brexit?

I just can't get over the idiocy of Boris Johnson. He is the leader of the lemmings off the cliff. Does he really believe that no Brexit is a good idea and that he will be a hero when the EU miraculously caves to Britain's demands?

[mrsukyankee]

Dec 10, 2018 14:19:26 GMT -5 sakoro said:

mrsukyankee , have you heard of ordinary people stocking up on medication and other imported essentials in anticipation of chaos at the border with a no deal Brexit?

I just can't get over the idiocy of Boris Johnson. He is the leader of the lemmings off the cliff. Does he really believe that no Brexit is a good idea and that he will be a hero when the EU miraculously caves to Britain's demands?

Yes. I have a friend who was told by her GP to stock up on medications. It's very scary to think about.

Boris Johnson is wealthy enough that he can deal with whatever comes. He truly doesn't care about anyone other than himself.

[AndyCohen]

Andy Serkis is a treasure.

[downtoearth]

How can #3 happen? I was under the impression that only #1 or #2 can happen now and #3 is not even on the table (aka not Brexit).

[Velar Fricative]

This is every bit of the shitshow I expected, and yet it is still shocking.

[isabel]

Dec 10, 2018 21:41:25 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

This is every bit of the shitshow I expected, and yet it is still shocking.

Seriously. People basically voted to ruin their country and now there really doesn't seem to be any way to avoid it.

[mrsukyankee]

Dec 10, 2018 19:31:50 GMT -5 downtoearth said:

How can #3 happen? I was under the impression that only #1 or #2 can happen now and #3 is not even on the table (aka not Brexit).

It can happen because there are a LOT of people who are pushing for a further referendum (due to lies and inability to actually come to an agreement in Parliament) and #3 would be a part of it. Plus the EU has agreed that we can stop article 50 legally and just continue to be part of the EU. 


www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/04/britain-legally-cancel-brexit-eu-parliament-court-remain

[mouse]

Dec 11, 2018 3:49:47 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

Dec 10, 2018 19:31:50 GMT -5 downtoearth said:

How can #3 happen? I was under the impression that only #1 or #2 can happen now and #3 is not even on the table (aka not Brexit).

It can happen because there are a LOT of people who are pushing for a further referendum (due to lies and inability to actually come to an agreement in Parliament) and #3 would be a part of it. Plus the EU has agreed that we can stop article 50 legally and just continue to be part of the EU. 


www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/04/britain-legally-cancel-brexit-eu-parliament-court-remain

So there's a very reasonable option of continuing how things were with minor difficulties vs pure disaster and that's not everyone's first choice?

[jamaicam]

Dec 11, 2018 3:56:19 GMT -5 mouse said:

Dec 11, 2018 3:49:47 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

It can happen because there are a LOT of people who are pushing for a further referendum (due to lies and inability to actually come to an agreement in Parliament) and #3 would be a part of it. Plus the EU has agreed that we can stop article 50 legally and just continue to be part of the EU. 


www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/04/britain-legally-cancel-brexit-eu-parliament-court-remain

So there's a very reasonable option of continuing how things were with minor difficulties vs pure disaster and that's not everyone's first choice?

Because there are a lot of racist people in Britain, including politicians, who are still pro-brexit as they are anti all foreigners and want their country back (eyeroll). 

[NewOrleans]

I want you to know that even though I don't comment on your Brexit threads because I don't know enough, I do read them and think about them and appreciate the perspective on them.

[mouse]

Dec 11, 2018 10:48:33 GMT -5 jamaicam said:

Dec 11, 2018 3:56:19 GMT -5 mouse said:

So there's a very reasonable option of continuing how things were with minor difficulties vs pure disaster and that's not everyone's first choice?

Because there are a lot of racist people in Britain, including politicians, who are still pro-brexit as they are anti all foreigners and want their country back (eyeroll). 

I know, but you'd think self-preservation would win out. I guess that's naive of me.

[cville]

Dec 11, 2018 10:56:58 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

I want you to know that even though I don't comment on your Brexit threads because I don't know enough, I do read them and think about them and appreciate the perspective on them.

Same. I read about Brexit and am like stressed out all "just do another referendum already!" Must be how the rest of the world feels watching Orange Foolius.

[secretlyevil]

Dec 11, 2018 11:08:27 GMT -5 cville said:

Dec 11, 2018 10:56:58 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

I want you to know that even though I don't comment on your Brexit threads because I don't know enough, I do read them and think about them and appreciate the perspective on them.

Same. I read about Brexit and am like stressed out all "just do another referendum already!" Must be how the rest of the world feels watching Orange Foolius.

This is where I am. It is mind-boggling how things are screwed up all over the bloody place.

[phunluvin82]

Dec 10, 2018 22:16:19 GMT -5 isabel said:

Dec 10, 2018 21:41:25 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

This is every bit of the shitshow I expected, and yet it is still shocking.

Seriously. People basically voted to ruin their country and now there really doesn't seem to be any way to avoid it.

Damn if that doesn't feel depressingly familiar.

[isabel]

Dec 11, 2018 11:27:31 GMT -5 phunluvin82 said:

Dec 10, 2018 22:16:19 GMT -5 isabel said:

Seriously. People basically voted to ruin their country and now there really doesn't seem to be any way to avoid it.

Damn if that doesn't feel depressingly familiar.

::sob::

[Velar Fricative]

Dec 11, 2018 11:05:29 GMT -5 mouse said:

Dec 11, 2018 10:48:33 GMT -5 jamaicam said:

Because there are a lot of racist people in Britain, including politicians, who are still pro-brexit as they are anti all foreigners and want their country back (eyeroll). 

I know, but you'd think self-preservation would win out. I guess that's naive of me.

It *is* self-preservation...in their minds. 

[sakoro]

Dec 11, 2018 3:49:47 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

Dec 10, 2018 19:31:50 GMT -5 downtoearth said:

How can #3 happen? I was under the impression that only #1 or #2 can happen now and #3 is not even on the table (aka not Brexit).

It can happen because there are a LOT of people who are pushing for a further referendum (due to lies and inability to actually come to an agreement in Parliament) and #3 would be a part of it. Plus the EU has agreed that we can stop article 50 legally and just continue to be part of the EU. 


www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/04/britain-legally-cancel-brexit-eu-parliament-court-remain

Just to back up a bit, the part that confuses me is where Teresa May went wrong? It seems like she came in a with mandate to come up with #2 and she went off in secret to hash out a deal with the EU. Perhaps she should have first spent some time building consensus on what the path forward should look like with the British public and Members of Parliament before negotiating with the EU? Is this what pisses everyone off about her?

This lack of consensus just gives the opportunists (Boris Johnson) and racists (Nigel Farage) the ability to come in and disrupt everything.

Ideally they would never have held the Brexit vote without the specifics of an exit being spelled out (and vetted with the EU in advance). And even the smoothest Brexit possible would still do economic damage, but not to level the no-deal Brexit will do.

[mrsukyankee]

sakoro the problem is that there can't be consensus on this as the British public are seriously divided on what they want (and honestly are either voting with racism or with reality/knowledge) and that no one actually spelled out what it could look like before the vote (and, in fact, a lot of the leaver party were pulling the same shit as the Republicans - and there was a lot of Russian bot interference). So some people thought that we could leave the EU entirely, still trade the way we wanted and not have any common movement...because they are idiots and/or only paid attention to the UK equivalent of Fox News.

[mbcdefg]

[sakoro]

Dec 11, 2018 17:47:35 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

sakoro the problem is that there can't be consensus on this as the British public are seriously divided on what they want (and honestly are either voting with racism or with reality/knowledge) and that no one actually spelled out what it could look like before the vote (and, in fact, a lot of the leaver party were pulling the same shit as the Republicans - and there was a lot of Russian bot interference). So some people thought that we could leave the EU entirely, still trade the way we wanted and not have any common movement...because they are idiots and/or only paid attention to the UK equivalent of Fox News.

Ok that makes much more sense— they are brainwashed by the equivalent of Fox News and the nonbrainwashed population are trying to bring them back to sanity.

Why would anyone want the Prime Minister job? What was Theresa May thinking when she took it? That it would be easy to bring the racist brainwashed people back to reality and that the remain people would give up?

[mouse]

Dec 11, 2018 22:05:38 GMT -5 sakoro said:

Dec 11, 2018 17:47:35 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

sakoro the problem is that there can't be consensus on this as the British public are seriously divided on what they want (and honestly are either voting with racism or with reality/knowledge) and that no one actually spelled out what it could look like before the vote (and, in fact, a lot of the leaver party were pulling the same shit as the Republicans - and there was a lot of Russian bot interference). So some people thought that we could leave the EU entirely, still trade the way we wanted and not have any common movement...because they are idiots and/or only paid attention to the UK equivalent of Fox News.

Ok that makes much more sense— they are brainwashed by the equivalent of Fox News and the nonbrainwashed population are trying to bring them back to sanity.

Why would anyone want the Prime Minister job? What was Theresa May thinking when she took it? That it would be easy to bring the racist brainwashed people back to reality and that the remain people would give up?

If I followed correctly, she's a lead brainwasher or at least hoping to capitalize on it. I'm not sure she realizes how bad a no deal would be, or maybe she just doesn't care.

Reminds me of the states (Kansas maybe?) that slashed services and cut back corporate taxes thinking it would work out great. Spoiler: not so much.

[mrsukyankee]

sakoro , here's one reason why: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-philip-may-amazon-starbucks-google-capital-group-philip-morris-a7133231.html

Basically her H could end up benefiting from any decisions she convinces the gov't to make while she was in charge...it's all about the money.

[mrsukyankee]

Further update: Tories have triggered a no confidence vote in the Parliament which would mean a vote for a new leader w/in the party. This would NOT involve the public. What it does not mean is an automatic change. There has to be a vote w/in Parliament and a certain number have to vote to stand with May to keep her in.

Right now the top possibilities are horrendous. We have the idiocy and changing with the wind of Boris Johnson. We have the home secretary, Sajid Javid, who is a first generation Brit who is arguing against immigration (yeah, that's ripe). We have the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, whose nickname is Jeremy CUNT, because he's so awful on so many levels. And we have Penny Mordaunt, the Minister for Women and Equality, who might be the best possibility, but some of her voting records are a bit mixed. She's the only one who seems to be supporting May despite not liking the actual plan.

What this would mean is that if May is toppled, we'd have to postpone anything about Brexit as it could take up to 6 weeks to choose a new leader and get everything up to snuff. Ugh. More shit. More money. More idiocy.

[sakoro]

So for the remainders, what is the most realist best possible outcome at this point? A chaotic no-deal Brexit which leads to overwhelming demand for a revote?

Maybe the brainwashed Leave people need to see the impact firsthand in the form of empty store shelves, not enough medical personnel and not being able to emigrate abroad to retire? Of course this would be terrible for anyone who takes imported medication or has an emergency during the chaos. And I imagine the economy would take a severe hit which would take years to recover from.

[jamaicam]

It is a complete mess!

I am still not 100% sure on it all, but basically the best case scenario would be that someone (new Tory leader if May is toppled? Labour if they end up with a general election and win?) needs to put Article 50 on pause, which I believe EU have said they can do, and then hold a new referendum.

But the basic issue is that the country is completely divided. What annoys me a lot is that younger people, who are the ones this will most impact, want to stay but older people, who already have their safe pensions etc and won't be around to see the consequences, want to leave.

[CheeringCharm]

Is the only real solution to hold another referendum? Is the reluctance to do this related to worries about cheating the original remainers?

I get why the other Tories are trying to push May out (they smell blood in the water and they want to advance their own careers) but taking her out doesn't seem like it would really change the reality of what they're facing. They're still facing a March deadline and an adversary who is not willing to grant further concessions and doesn't have to.

If a hard Brexit person gets the top job, what will happen then?

[cville]

Holy hell.

[sakoro]

Dec 12, 2018 8:49:46 GMT -5 jamaicam said:

It is a complete mess!

I am still not 100% sure on it all, but basically the best case scenario would be that someone (new Tory leader if May is toppled? Labour if they end up with a general election and win?) needs to put Article 50 on pause, which I believe EU have said they can do, and then hold a new referendum.

But the basic issue is that the country is completely divided.

With such a divided and partially brainwashed electorate, would a revote’s results be accepted as legitimate? It seems like people need to see and experience the consequences firsthand to start questioning the lies they’ve been told. Unfortunately that means a certain number of people (probably the most vulnerable) will likely not survive if there are shortages of medicines.

What annoys me a lot is that younger people, who are the ones this will most impact, want to stay but older people, who already have their safe pensions.

Same problem in america—If younger age groups voted at the same rate as 65+ Trump would not be in office and republicans would not control the Senate. Do you think they would come out for a revote?

[mrsukyankee]

Yeah, right now, even if they get a hard leaver in power, it won't matter. The Parliament won't vote for any possible deal that the EU is going to give them because it makes no sense to do so - all the deals basically will include all that we have now but no ability to vote on it in the EU. So no voice. It's going to either be a hard Brexit because the idiots in the Parliament - OR - we will have to put off any decision making, have another referendum which will basically ask the people do you want hard brexit, this deal or to remain in the EU - OR they will get off their asses and actually say what they should have in the first place- yes, 30% or so of the people eligible to vote in the UK originally voted for leave, but we're the people you voted in and your vote does not mean we have to do what you asked for and for the good of the country, we're staying in the EU.

My guess - we're going to end up with a hard Brexit which means we'll have people dying in the UK, the NHS will fall to pieces and we'll end up with a US system which means people will die in the UK and rich people will get richer, and we'll end up a very, very sad little island which becomes a second world country. On top of that, Scotland will leave the UK and join the EU and N. Ireland may end up either patching it up with Ireland or the two countries will go back to the times before the Troubles and people will die. The next 20 years will be horrible, people will want to go back to the EU and they won't let us back in because we'll have caused them so much trouble.

Yeah, I'm feeling very pessimistic today.