Biden is leading Trump in ALL of them. He beats Trump in Arizona and FUCKING TEXAS. He is the ONLY one beating Trump in some of those states.
In a perfect world, it would be Warren. But I have decided that the most important thing in this election is to get Trump out, and I think the best way to do that is to play the odds.
We cannot afford to dick around with this election, now that RBG is really fighting to stay alive.
Post by redheadbaker on Aug 23, 2019 14:18:54 GMT -5
Polls showed Clinton beating Trump in 2016. I will not be paying any attention to polls this time around, especially not this far out from the election.
Post by seeyalater52 on Aug 23, 2019 14:33:03 GMT -5
I don't understand voting for someone other than your first choice in the primary. Matchup polls more than a year out from a general election have no bearing on, well, anything.
Post by eponinepontmercy on Aug 23, 2019 14:39:52 GMT -5
This is why electability is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone loves Warren, but thinks OTHER people will vote for Biden because he's an old, moderate white guy.
There haven't even been any primaries yet! I'll keep the Warren and Kamala stickers on my car until the convention.
Biden is leading Trump in ALL of them. He beats Trump in Arizona and FUCKING TEXAS. He is the ONLY one beating Trump in some of those states.
In a perfect world, it would be Warren. But I have decided that the most important thing in this election is to get Trump out, and I think the best way to do that is to play the odds.
We cannot afford to dick around with this election, now that RBG is really fighting to stay alive.
Is this a legitimate website? I tried reading it and I got several pop ups and couldn't figure out how to switch away from Florida.
I agree we need to win, but I don't believe at this point that Biden is the only way. I will gladly vote for him if he's the nominee, but he's not anywhere near my first choice.
I mean, yeah, if it's Biden vs Trump on the ballot... Biden will get my vote. But I think we're still way too far away from that scenario to be planning for that.
And another thing to consider about polls: they often determine likely voters based on past voting. Who will energize the base and bring in new voters? That's how AOC won and how Stacey Abrams nearly won. That's how Obama won Iowa in the 2008 primary! And those voters probably don't show up in these polls.
Or ask John Kerry. He was the pick because everyone thought he was the most electable (and polls probably showed him beating W). Turns out we're really bad at predicting who's the most electable.
The actual election is more than a year away. I’ll be voting and campaigning for whoever the D nominee is. I don’t know that anyone needs to make any decisions beyond that at this point.
It's way too early for definitive predictions. Give your support and vote to the candidate who you most want to see as president. trying to game the system never works.
Post by centralsquare on Aug 23, 2019 15:26:41 GMT -5
Counterpoint: voting for Biden *is* dicking around.
You don’t want him. Most people don’t want him. They’re just being pulled into this idea that no one else can win.
We don’t know WTF is going to happen. All we know is that nothing is going to be normal. Nothing is predictable. And we need someone to get out the vote.
Post by centralsquare on Aug 23, 2019 15:27:36 GMT -5
And please note, I don’t think trump will debate anyone, nor do I expect he will vacate office if he loses. Nor at the end of his (god help us) second term.
It leaves them — all of us — to grapple with the impossibility of our own passivity, if we actually care what’s going to happen next. Because what the conviction that someone out there knows the end — like J.K. Rowling at a café in Edinburgh, or a representative of Price-Waterhouse, backstage with the envelope tucked in his pocket — relieves us of is the responsibility to act as if the ending is up to us. Which it is.
As soon as we admit that the “narrative” is yet unwritten, and that what makes someone “electable” is doing the work of electing them, and that none of us knows what’s ahead, we will all be more scared.
And here’s the only thing I know for sure: that is exactly what we should be.
Post by seeyalater52 on Aug 23, 2019 16:08:36 GMT -5
Also it would be downright shocking for anyone BUT Biden to be leading those matchups at this stage. He is far and away the candidate with the most name recognition this early on. That is how early polls work.
If we always have to choose a candidate based on who has been around the longest and who is recognized the most often by the people being polled boy is the Democratic Party in trouble. We have been here before and it does us no favors.
Are all his primary voters actually going to show up for him in November? Also, neither Obama and Trump were electable. I will totally vote for Biden if he wins the nom but I am voting for my favorite in the primary and he will more than likely not be it when there are several others I really like.
Post by sparkythelawyer on Aug 23, 2019 16:17:56 GMT -5
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.
I don’t think the people who stayed home in 2016 are a monolith. Some people have hated Hillary for 20 years. Some people dislike women. Some people are Berners.
Post by suburbanzookeeper on Aug 23, 2019 16:30:41 GMT -5
I would vote for a potted plant over Trump if that was the final ballot choices in November 2020 - until then, I will continue to vote my choices and not what pollsters tell me "will be the real choice."
I do a lot of focus groups and I have made it to the end of the selection process on a few political ones in the last few weeks until I've said those exact words.
Post by 5kcandlesinthewind on Aug 23, 2019 16:34:57 GMT -5
The best way to prove electability is to run a damn good campaign, full of ideas and energy. Biden ain’t cutting it. He’s running for coronation, and that isn’t enough in a field full of qualified, passionate candidates. It shouldn’t be, anyway. It’s the whole point of a primary! I’m convinced that him as the nominee is a guaranteed Trump victory-I just don’t think he’s going to be able to turn out the coalition he needs to win in the general even if he brings back some of those oh-so-coveted white working class voters. I mean, if he’s the nominee, then I would be happy to be proven wrong. But I don’t buy the “he’s the only one who can win” line of thinking, especially not this far out.
We need someone who is going to non-voters to come out and vote. And Biden is barely going to inspire regular voters to come out. So. No. I don't think he is our best pick. But I wouldn't be shocked if he is what we end up with because that just seems to be how it goes.
Obama wasn't seen as electable...until he started winning. So, lets just wait until after Iowa maybe?
Biden is electable only because people perceive him as electable.
Have you heard a single person give a reason for why they like Biden other than he’s electable? No! Because literally nobody actually prefers Biden.
This is a HUGE problem that’s going to catch up to him.
And it’s going to catch up to all of us if we let this electability myth continue unchecked. The fastest way to lose the election is nominating a candidate no one really likes or is excited about, and who is 10 to 1 most likely to have an epic scandal emerge before Election Day. Biden is a liability.
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.
I doubt he will be the nominee, but you really wouldn't vote for Bernie over Trump? Or you just wouldn't vote? I can't fathom anyone who cares about politics sitting this one out.
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.
I doubt he will be the nominee, but you really wouldn't vote for Bernie over Trump? Or you just wouldn't vote? I can't fathom anyone who cares about politics sitting this one out.
Post by RoxMonster on Aug 23, 2019 17:27:16 GMT -5
If Biden ends up being the nominee, I will vote for him over Trump. I really am not liking Biden though at all. My state's primary is relatively early (March), and I plan to vote for who I am most excited by at that time. Right now, that's Warren for me.
I honestly don't think all that many people really like Biden. IMO I don't think it's a given he will be the nominee, especially if people are willing to vote for the candidate they actually like in the primary.
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.