Brexit Deal with EU

[isabel]

Text article: www.npr.org/2019/10/17/770860962/britains-johnson-hails-new-brexit-deal-with-eu

Audio: www.npr.org/2019/10/17/770857949/britain-and-eu-say-they-have-a-brexit-deal

I found the audio explanation of the deal helpful. This mostly just revolves around how things will work with Northern Ireland. They say that Brexit is far from a done deal though.

[mrsukyankee]

It's bullshit. It's not going to pass in Parliament...but if it does, it means the UK will probably no longer be united (at the least, Scotland will leave), the troubles will return to Ireland and those of us stuck in England will be screwed so much (we'll lose workers rights, the NHS, etc).

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/british-businesses-say-new-brexit-deal-worse-than-mays-deal

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/can-boris-johnson-pass-his-brexit-deal-through-the-house-of-commons

Pray for us if you are believers, cross your fingers if you aren't. Cause this is going to be an awful few months ahead.

[jigsy]

So this deal looks terrible, and it seems like Johnson will have a hard time getting the votes he needs.

But if this doesn't pass, and nothing else comes up to vote between now and 10/31, that would mean a hard brexit, right? Hasn't the EU said they aren't going to extend anymore? Or, is it possible that if they could agree to hold a second referendum before 10/31, then everything will kind of pause until that happens?

I guess I am wondering what the people who won't vote for this deal hope to happen in the next 2 weeks.

[mrsukyankee]

jigsy, I think they'll extend if a large majority of the Parliament agree to work on a second referendum in the time given. And since pretty much every single poll out there shows that a majority want to remain now, it might work well.

The worry is that BJ will just flout the law and allow us to leave. I'm not sure it could happen but it's still a concern.

Regardless of what does happen, there has been a huge loss of confidence in how our gov't works (some of it is because people don't understand how it works and what an advisory referendum means) as well as a huge split on a lot of topics.

[mrsukyankee]

If you want to watch what's going on in Parliament right now (and all it's insanity):

[mrsukyankee]

And the People's March for a Vote which is going on right now:

[Jalapeñomel]

This is all so confusing for me as I had just a surface level understanding. I appreciate the links, so I can learn more.

What would happen if it ended up at a hard Brexit?

[mrsukyankee]

Oct 19, 2019 7:47:45 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

This is all so confusing for me as I had just a surface level understanding. I appreciate the links, so I can learn more.

What would happen if it ended up at a hard Brexit?

www.ft.com/content/a6f991ba-eda8-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47470864

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/03/no-deal-brexit-crashing-out-uk-europe

[mrsukyankee]

MP's are voting right now on an amendment to delay the approval of the deal. The Prime Minster would have to seek an extension from the EU tonight. It's basically to help us look at possibilities of what the deal would mean a bit better as there hasn't been any analysis of it by the gov't. A lot at stake right now.

[Jalapeñomel]

Thanks so much mrsukyankee

[mrsukyankee]

Oct 19, 2019 8:31:50 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

MP's are voting right now on an amendment to delay the approval of the deal. The Prime Minster would have to seek an extension from the EU tonight. It's basically to help us look at possibilities of what the deal would mean a bit better as there hasn't been any analysis of it by the gov't. A lot at stake right now.

The meaningful vote has been delayed by 16 votes (322 to 306). That means that Brexit and a plan or no deal will not happen today.

[underwaterrhymes]

Oct 19, 2019 8:51:20 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

Oct 19, 2019 8:31:50 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

MP's are voting right now on an amendment to delay the approval of the deal. The Prime Minster would have to seek an extension from the EU tonight. It's basically to help us look at possibilities of what the deal would mean a bit better as there hasn't been any analysis of it by the gov't. A lot at stake right now.

The meaningful vote has been delayed by 16 votes (322 to 306). That means that Brexit and a plan or no deal will not happen today.

OMG.

This is so frustrating and exhausting.

[mrsukyankee]

underwaterrhymes, I'm okay with that. But what is happening is that people are getting tired of the uncertainty. And that is driving some to say, just do it, get it over with. And I honestly believe that this is a tactic for some of the leaver MPs. Making it so that it appears everyone has always wanted Brexit, when all they want is certainty (which is NOT Brexit).

The time is meant to allow the gov't to actually look at analysis of what would happen were we to pass this deal. Having read analysis by some very educated folk, it appears that it will allow us to have a backdoor No Deal Brexit after a period of time - or- just be awful for the country. It's a worse deal than the ones that MPs wouldn't vote for with May. And so it shouldn't be voted on. I worry that this is what some of the MPs were hoping for and so voted down all the other deals to get to the one that would hurt the UK the worst but make them the most money (bringing in a US style health service, etc).

[underwaterrhymes]

mrsukyankee - oh, I know. (Or at least, in my limited understanding of how Parliament works, I know).

I just feel so bad for you guys. This has dragged out for so long and so many people’s lives are going to be affected by this. I’m so mad at the Brexitiers.

[mrsukyankee]

Oct 20, 2019 6:37:15 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

 I’m so mad at the Brexitiers.

Me too. I'm mad that people weren't being listened to when they were telling the gov't that life wasn't working for them before all of this came about (maybe we could have changed history in this way). I'm mad at Cameron for capitulating to the far right faction of his party and then making it an advisory referendum without the normal law changing % needed to win (which, I believe would be more than 2/3rd). I hate that Theresa May triggered Article 50 before doing any research at all or asking for it to be done so that more information could come out before all this hell began (it would have been far easier at that point to say, ya know, this isn't going to work for our union). I'm pissed off at all the hard Brexiters who don't actually understand Democracy and are far too much like those who praise Trump as a "true leader". Honestly, I'm a very angry person right now. I probably needed to get out of my bubble and be angry before...and now I am.

[just]

This woman is my hero

[amberlyrose]

I know a few "leave" voters that still don't think the UK should be a part of the EU. When I bring up N. Ireland and Scotland leaving, they think it's a ridiculous thought and they'll never leave the UK. How can you navigate life with your eyes so tightly closed?! The writing is on the wall and some of your biggest exports come from those countries!

[mcsangel2]

Oct 21, 2019 12:40:16 GMT -5 amberlyrose said:

I know a few "leave" voters that still don't think the UK should be a part of the EU. When I bring up N. Ireland and Scotland leaving, they think it's a ridiculous thought and they'll never leave the UK. How can you navigate life with your eyes so tightly closed?! The writing is on the wall and some of your biggest exports come from those countries!

I follow the Scotland subreddit board. This line of thought is quite naive, I think they are definitely going to leave the UK with the next referendum.

[elleblue]

Oct 21, 2019 12:51:37 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Oct 21, 2019 12:40:16 GMT -5 amberlyrose said:

I know a few "leave" voters that still don't think the UK should be a part of the EU. When I bring up N. Ireland and Scotland leaving, they think it's a ridiculous thought and they'll never leave the UK. How can you navigate life with your eyes so tightly closed?! The writing is on the wall and some of your biggest exports come from those countries!

I follow the Scotland subreddit board. This line of thought is quite naive, I think they are definitely going to leave the UK with the next referendum.

What I'm reading indicates this as well. It feels like they're tired of being drug along so to speak and are ready to break from the UK, regardless of what happens with Brexit. NI is not as certain, although I do think if Brexit does go through there's a decent chance they'll want to break from the UK as well.

Interesting times to say the least.

[jigsy]

Oct 21, 2019 12:51:37 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Oct 21, 2019 12:40:16 GMT -5 amberlyrose said:

I know a few "leave" voters that still don't think the UK should be a part of the EU. When I bring up N. Ireland and Scotland leaving, they think it's a ridiculous thought and they'll never leave the UK. How can you navigate life with your eyes so tightly closed?! The writing is on the wall and some of your biggest exports come from those countries!

I follow the Scotland subreddit board. This line of thought is quite naive, I think they are definitely going to leave the UK with the next referendum.

I follow that too, and while it is clearly very pro-indy leaning, I do think that it is quite likely that the ref will pass, especially with Brexit. It is both very exciting and terrifying to think that this may all happen while I live there. Only terrifying because being on a visa is precarious, though I do think an independent Scotland would be more amiable to me staying permanently, lol. 

[jigsy]

I saw this and it made me laugh/cry

[mrsukyankee]

jigsy, oh my god.

[mrsukyankee]

So two things have happened tonight in Parliament:

1. Parliament voted to allow the government's withdrawal agreement bill to pass on to the next steps.
("$£"%L:^J$I£OJR)

2. They voted against allowing it to come to pass in the next few days. So that means BJ has to ask for an extension plus it means that more scrutiny has to happen (which hasn't yet). And I'm hoping that this means that this will somehow all fall apart. But my worries is that we are entering the last year of a United Kingdom.

[jigsy]

mrsukyankee, liking for the update. not for the news.