Also if path to POTUS from VPOTUS is only 20% pretty sure those are better odds than path to POTUS from Senator of California.
That's what's blowing my mind about this conversation. There's literally no other job where 20% of alumni become POTUS. Yes, there are downsides, and I suppose we can argue about the definition of a stepping stone, but it's not a crazy choice for someone with presidential ambitions.
And let's be honest, becoming VP to the oldest POTUS in histor increases the chances of a promotion from VP.
HOWEVER. Remember when Biden floated Stacey Abrams as his VP pick without even talking to her?!? I don't know if Kamala wants to tie her fortunes to that wagon.
Also if path to POTUS from VPOTUS is only 20% pretty sure those are better odds than path to POTUS from Senator of California.
You also have to look at who actually RAN to be president. Cheney didn’t run, for example. Biden is an interesting case since he’s running but l didn’t run at the end of his VP term. I just looked and Quayle did run, but not until 2000 and he only made it to August of 1999. It’s hard to evaluate most of the 70s because of the Nixon and Agnew scandals. Nixon was Eisenhower’s VP and did go on to become president but not the first time he ran. So it’s really hard to draw conclusions from this data, IMO.
With Kamala out, I think my DREAM is: a Warren/Castro ticket. Harris as AG. Booker and Gillibrand as something in the cabinet (maybe HHS and State, respectively). Stacey Abrams for, IDK, empress? Special adviser to the president with a focus on voter protection? Deputy AG focusing on voter protection? Pam Karlan for SCOTUS. Sally Yates for Solicitor General. Jay Inslee as a climate czar, who coordinates policy among multiple agencies.
The good news is that we have a lot of talented people, so there are a lot of different permutations of awesomeness we can have.
Basically a ton of kickass women and a handful of non-problematic men.
Obviously the presidency is the big prize. It’s frustrating as hell to see who the front runners are. But VP is still a big deal. I don’t know. Maybe it’s just me.
I want Castro to win. He has been my choice since the very beginning. I’m hoping against all hope he gets some crazy surge. if I’m being realistic though, chances are he won’t win. if he gets chosen as VP??? That’s still a big fucking deal. Someone who’s last name could very well be mine as VP?? Yup. I’ll take it
Obviously the presidency is the big prize. It’s frustrating as hell to see who the front runners are. But VP is still a big deal. I don’t know. Maybe it’s just me.
I want Castro to win. He has been my choice since the very beginning. I’m hoping against all hope he gets some crazy surge. if I’m being realistic though, chances are he won’t win. if he gets chosen as VP??? That’s still a big fucking deal. Someone who’s last name could very well be mine as VP?? Yup. I’ll take it
Exactly. I am hoping he makes the next debate. He and Warren are my top 2, hands down. I assume I’ll vote for Warren because my state votes in April and I doubt he’ll still be in it then. If he is, it will be a really hard choice for me.
If Warren wins the nomination, I think he’s got to be in the running for VP. He’s also very progressive. He could likely garner a lot of support from Obama alumni. He’s run an administrative agency, which Warren knows will be key to getting things done. As best I can tell, they seem to genuinely like each other. And he’d keep the ticket from being all white, which I think is important for an increasingly diverse party. I am sure he’d be on her short list.
Post by penguingrrl on Dec 6, 2019 12:50:54 GMT -5
Okay, I concede that 20% is a decent stat. I looked up some stats. 16 senators have gone on to become president, 9 Secretaries of State. VP is certainly one path to it, but it’s not necessarily a better option than Senate or a high level cabinet post. I also would be sad to see her permanently associated with Biden.
I'm really nervous it's going to be Biden. I think Kamala was best positioned to be the candidate that had a surprise surge, and with her out, I don't know who that person is. Biden's anti-Trump ad this week was really powerful, and coming on the heels of Harris's withdrawal, I think he is really starting to harden his support.
Castro and Stacy Abrams are my two favorite politicians in the party right now. If they don't wind up on the ticket in some way, I wonder if either one has any interest in running the DNC?
I'm really nervous it's going to be Biden. I think Kamala was best positioned to be the candidate that had a surprise surge, and with her out, I don't know who that person is. Biden's anti-Trump ad this week was really powerful, and coming on the heels of Harris's withdrawal, I think he is really starting to harden his support.
Castro and Stacy Abrams are my two favorite politicians in the party right now. If they don't wind up on the ticket in some way, I wonder if either one has any interest in running the DNC?
I really hope it’s not Biden. That would be handing Trump a re-election on a golden platter.
I'm really nervous it's going to be Biden. I think Kamala was best positioned to be the candidate that had a surprise surge, and with her out, I don't know who that person is. Biden's anti-Trump ad this week was really powerful, and coming on the heels of Harris's withdrawal, I think he is really starting to harden his support.
Castro and Stacy Abrams are my two favorite politicians in the party right now. If they don't wind up on the ticket in some way, I wonder if either one has any interest in running the DNC?
I really hope it’s not Biden. That would be handing Trump a re-election on a golden platter.
I feel like you could say this about any of the top 4 candidates though.
I really hope it’s not Biden. That would be handing Trump a re-election on a golden platter.
I feel like you could say this about any of the top 4 candidates though.
I don’t disagree. I think of the four Warren is the most likely to succeed, but all have some pretty critical flaws. My first choice is and has been Castro, and I hope he gets a surge and quickly.
I feel like you could say this about any of the top 4 candidates though.
I don’t disagree. I think of the four Warren is the most likely to succeed, but all have some pretty critical flaws. My first choice is and has been Castro, and I hope he gets a surge and quickly.
They all make me nervous but Biden has a slight advantage IMO. He seems to capture a wider electorate. For some fucking reason.
Also if path to POTUS from VPOTUS is only 20% pretty sure those are better odds than path to POTUS from Senator of California.
You also have to look at who actually RAN to be president. Cheney didn’t run, for example. Biden is an interesting case since he’s running but l didn’t run at the end of his VP term. I just looked and Quayle did run, but not until 2000 and he only made it to August of 1999. It’s hard to evaluate most of the 70s because of the Nixon and Agnew scandals. Nixon was Eisenhower’s VP and did go on to become president but not the first time he ran. So it’s really hard to draw conclusions from this data, IMO.
With Kamala out, I think my DREAM is: a Warren/Castro ticket. Harris as AG. Booker and Gillibrand as something in the cabinet (maybe HHS and State, respectively). Stacey Abrams for, IDK, empress? Special adviser to the president with a focus on voter protection? Deputy AG focusing on voter protection? Pam Karlan for SCOTUS. Sally Yates for Solicitor General. Jay Inslee as a climate czar, who coordinates policy among multiple agencies.
The good news is that we have a lot of talented people, so there are a lot of different permutations of awesomeness we can have.
Basically a ton of kickass women and a handful of non-problematic men.
Not to mention that the stat should actually be 10 VP's ran and won because GORE WON HIS ELECTION...so, 22% with the flawed data. lol
Did anyone listen to The Daily today? Bernie tried to end the interview when Barbaro asked him about his support for Ortega and the Sandinistas. He did ultimately continue the interview and answered that it was more about opposing American intervention, which is some seriously revisionist history. First, it’s astonishing to me the extent to which he’s not been pressed on that. Second, holy shit is there no way Bernie could win Florida. Why is this not glaringly obvious to everyone in the party? Does Bernie have a narrow path to victory that cuts through states like Wisconsin and Michigan? Sure, but his paths to victory are so much more limited than just about anyone else because I cannot fathom any universe in which he wins Florida. We can’t nominate someone who just takes it completely off the table.
I don’t disagree. I think of the four Warren is the most likely to succeed, but all have some pretty critical flaws. My first choice is and has been Castro, and I hope he gets a surge and quickly.
They all make me nervous but Biden has a slight advantage IMO. He seems to capture a wider electorate. For some fucking reason.
The whole thing makes me ill. I can't even believe how it is that we went from this super exciting campaign filled with great people to this. Bernie really did a fucking number on the party.
Warren's pledge not to take large donor money in the general is really a hard thing for me to accept. We aren't going to defeat the military grade weaponry of the GOP with a butter knife, and that will seriously fuck over down ballot races.
Plus while the trolling of billionaires was entertaining at first, it's getting old. While Biden was out with his fantastic ad on Trump, she's picking a fight with Bloomberg? WHYYYYYYYYY. Between that and her DNA test, she gets so easily distracted and I'm just not convinced she can run a disciplined campaign with broad appeal.
But even with that, she's still the best of the four frontrunners. She's not out there dog whistling, getting handsy with women while telling offensive stories from yesteryear, or covering up a heart attack while his army of twitter supporters harass women of color.
Hillary Clinton was a better candidate than anyone gives her credit for.
I'm really nervous it's going to be Biden. I think Kamala was best positioned to be the candidate that had a surprise surge, and with her out, I don't know who that person is. Biden's anti-Trump ad this week was really powerful, and coming on the heels of Harris's withdrawal, I think he is really starting to harden his support.
Castro and Stacy Abrams are my two favorite politicians in the party right now. If they don't wind up on the ticket in some way, I wonder if either one has any interest in running the DNC?
I think Abrams is setting herself up for DNC chair with her current work. I'm here for it.
I'm really nervous it's going to be Biden. I think Kamala was best positioned to be the candidate that had a surprise surge, and with her out, I don't know who that person is. Biden's anti-Trump ad this week was really powerful, and coming on the heels of Harris's withdrawal, I think he is really starting to harden his support.
Castro and Stacy Abrams are my two favorite politicians in the party right now. If they don't wind up on the ticket in some way, I wonder if either one has any interest in running the DNC?
6 months ago I was saying no way will Biden last, but I am leaning more towards him being the nom. The article you posted below also explains the disagreements between me and my (black) boss. She cannot be convinced that anyone but Biden can beat Trump and now I’m starting to come around to that, at least among the top 4. I vehemently disagree that a Biden victory means Trump gets handed another term on a silver platter - if anything the other 3 will and Biden does give us the best chance at this very point in time. Not saying he would definitely win, just that I’m coming around more to him giving us a fighting chance even if I’m disappointed about that. And I still love Warren; I’m just starting to sense that she has less of a chance of beating Trump than I initially believed.
They all make me nervous but Biden has a slight advantage IMO. He seems to capture a wider electorate. For some fucking reason.
The whole thing makes me ill. I can't even believe how it is that we went from this super exciting campaign filled with great people to this. Bernie really did a fucking number on the party.
Warren's pledge not to take large donor money in the general is really a hard thing for me to accept. We aren't going to defeat the military grade weaponry of the GOP with a butter knife, and that will seriously fuck over down ballot races.
Plus while the trolling of billionaires was entertaining at first, it's getting old. While Biden was out with his fantastic ad on Trump, she's picking a fight with Bloomberg? WHYYYYYYYYY. Between that and her DNA test, she gets so easily distracted and I'm just not convinced she can run a disciplined campaign with broad appeal.
But even with that, she's still the best of the four frontrunners. She's not out there dog whistling, getting handsy with women while telling offensive stories from yesteryear, or covering up a heart attack while his army of twitter supporters harass women of color.
Hillary Clinton was a better candidate than anyone gives her credit for.
I’m concerned with her ability to excite people of color. Is she aware Hispanic people even exist? Has she tried to reach them at all? And her numbers with black people are pretty abysmal.
I’m now in this rare (for me) space where I don’t particularly like any of the top tier candidates. I’m not saying I’m an arbiter of objectivity but I’m just very detached at this point. Coupled with terrified. It makes for a sad combination.
The whole thing makes me ill. I can't even believe how it is that we went from this super exciting campaign filled with great people to this. Bernie really did a fucking number on the party.
Warren's pledge not to take large donor money in the general is really a hard thing for me to accept. We aren't going to defeat the military grade weaponry of the GOP with a butter knife, and that will seriously fuck over down ballot races.
Plus while the trolling of billionaires was entertaining at first, it's getting old. While Biden was out with his fantastic ad on Trump, she's picking a fight with Bloomberg? WHYYYYYYYYY. Between that and her DNA test, she gets so easily distracted and I'm just not convinced she can run a disciplined campaign with broad appeal.
But even with that, she's still the best of the four frontrunners. She's not out there dog whistling, getting handsy with women while telling offensive stories from yesteryear, or covering up a heart attack while his army of twitter supporters harass women of color.
Hillary Clinton was a better candidate than anyone gives her credit for.
I’m concerned with her ability to excite people of color. Is she aware Hispanic people even exist? Has she tried to reach them at all? And her numbers with black people are pretty abysmal.
I’m now in this rare (for me) space where I don’t particularly like any of the top tier candidates. I’m not saying I’m an arbiter of objectivity but I’m just very detached at this point. Coupled with terrified. It makes for a sad combination.
I can’t speak to her Latinx outreach, but from what I’ve seen, she’s making slow but steady inroads with black voters, especially black women. Whether it’s enough? IDK.
I'm always confused when people say Harris wouldn't/shouldn't be the VP because she could do more as a senator, it is beneath her, she is too good for the position, etc. Being VP is often the stepping stone to become president. It seems like it would be a great move for her politically.
I think VP would be fine, but I have trouble thinking of who she would pair well with due to policy differences, except MAYBE Warren and a few people who aren't doing that well. I DO think this when people say she should be AG, though. I get that there's a desire to return the justice department to something not dysfunctional, but very few cabinet positions, except Sec. of State maybe, hold the same cache as senator of the largest state in the US, even if she is the junior senator. She's only in her first term!
Also, is it that 9 VPs were ELECTED president? Because 8 presidents were either assassinated or died in office, and one resigned, so their VPs became president. Some were re-elected (Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman, LBJ) and some were not (Andrew Johnson, Gerald Ford).
I'm always confused when people say Harris wouldn't/shouldn't be the VP because she could do more as a senator, it is beneath her, she is too good for the position, etc. Being VP is often the stepping stone to become president. It seems like it would be a great move for her politically.
I think VP would be fine, but I have trouble thinking of who she would pair well with due to policy differences, except MAYBE Warren and a few people who aren't doing that well. I DO think this when people say she should be AG, though. I get that there's a desire to return the justice department to something not dysfunctional, but very few cabinet positions, except Sec. of State maybe, hold the same cache as senator of the largest state in the US, even if she is the junior senator. She's only in her first term!
Also, is it that 9 VPs were ELECTED president? Because 8 presidents were either assassinated or died in office, and one resigned, so their VPs became president. Some were re-elected (Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman, LBJ) and some were not (Andrew Johnson, Gerald Ford).
Thank you. I read that upthread, and it surprised me because I remember my history teacher in 8th grade saying that the idea that the VP is a stepping stone to president is a myth because GHWB was only the second to accomplish that, after John Adams. I thought maybe I was not remembering correctly but what you are saying would explain it. I think it's the case that GHWB is the only one since Adams to get elected after not finishing out the previous president's term.
I'm really nervous it's going to be Biden. I think Kamala was best positioned to be the candidate that had a surprise surge, and with her out, I don't know who that person is. Biden's anti-Trump ad this week was really powerful, and coming on the heels of Harris's withdrawal, I think he is really starting to harden his support.
Castro and Stacy Abrams are my two favorite politicians in the party right now. If they don't wind up on the ticket in some way, I wonder if either one has any interest in running the DNC?
6 months ago I was saying no way will Biden last, but I am leaning more towards him being the nom. The article you posted below also explains the disagreements between me and my (black) boss. She cannot be convinced that anyone but Biden can beat Trump and now I’m starting to come around to that, at least among the top 4. I vehemently disagree that a Biden victory means Trump gets handed another term on a silver platter - if anything the other 3 will and Biden does give us the best chance at this very point in time. Not saying he would definitely win, just that I’m coming around more to him giving us a fighting chance even if I’m disappointed about that. And I still love Warren; I’m just starting to sense that she has less of a chance of beating Trump than I initially believed.
I can't say you're necessarily wrong, since I'm a white woman and all, but what does Biden offer other than "not Trump"? Even though Clinton had policies, good policies, fully fleshed out policies, the media portrayed it as a race between Trump and someone who was not Trump (and her messaging often leaned too much in "not Trump" too, i.e. Love Trumps Hate). I don't doubt that defeating Trump is a huge motivator, but it can't be the only motivator. People need to know they are voting FOR something, too. Some kind of change.
You know what's happening? I'm becoming apathetic a year out. And if the nom goes to Biden, I will still be apathetic. I will vote D no matter what, but I won't be excited about it. I wonder about the large scale impact of Biden as the nominee for the former supports of Warren, Harris, Castro, and Buttigieg.
6 months ago I was saying no way will Biden last, but I am leaning more towards him being the nom. The article you posted below also explains the disagreements between me and my (black) boss. She cannot be convinced that anyone but Biden can beat Trump and now I’m starting to come around to that, at least among the top 4. I vehemently disagree that a Biden victory means Trump gets handed another term on a silver platter - if anything the other 3 will and Biden does give us the best chance at this very point in time. Not saying he would definitely win, just that I’m coming around more to him giving us a fighting chance even if I’m disappointed about that. And I still love Warren; I’m just starting to sense that she has less of a chance of beating Trump than I initially believed.
I can't say you're necessarily wrong, since I'm a white woman and all, but what does Biden offer other than "not Trump"? Even though Clinton had policies, good policies, fully fleshed out policies, the media portrayed it as a race between Trump and someone who was not Trump (and her messaging often leaned too much in "not Trump" too, i.e. Love Trumps Hate). I don't doubt that defeating Trump is a huge motivator, but it can't be the only motivator. People need to know they are voting FOR something, too. Some kind of change.
I don’t disagree with you. But, while she’s just one black woman and not speaking for all black people, she’s voting FOR reducing further damage to black people’s livelihoods and truly believes Biden is the one person who can beat Trump. And who am I to question her with “Yeah but what about M4A?” She will obviously vote for whoever is the nom but that is her primary thought during the primary.