Is the housing market bubbling near you?

[Jalapeñomel]

NYC burbs (not NJ or CT, NY proper) and the market is crazy here. According to my realtor, it’s always crazy though.

We sold our house in October for way more than it’s worth.

[outnumbered]

Apr 1, 2021 13:09:22 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

Yup. I feel like real estate has been tight in my area for years, but lately it seems even more insane. I'm curious about the sustainability too. But the fact is that there is huge demand and very low supply for the desirable Boston suburbs. There is no more land to build, so all the small homes are being bought by developers, bulldozed, and then replaced with a $1M+ new construction. It kind of sucks. We got lucky and bought in 2009, so we've appreciated considerably. I'd love to upgrade, but to get what we'd want (one more bedroom and a garage), we would have to more than double our mortgage. I feel kind of stuck unless we move to lower COL.

I live 12 miles north of Boston in a town with a commuter rail station.  We are also at the junction of 93 and 95.  Our house is worth $200,000 more than when we bought at the beginning of 2006 (when we thought prices were high). It is absolutely crazy, we have done nothing to it.  I wanted to move my parents nearby, but there are no affordable small houses.  They are being sold well out of their range and knocked down to built 1.5 to 2 million dollar houses.  There are no small houses being built anymore.  It is awful and frustrating.

[Gato]

Wow, that place is about 1/2 mile from where I lived on Shasta. My ex and I should have bought the 3br/2ba place we rented when it went on sale for $325K!

We’ve got a “bubble,” here in Portland, Maine, although it’s been rising every year since we moved, and I doubt it will slow down now. Home prices have doubled in my neighborhood in the past five years. People from Massachusetts and New York make up 1/3 of the sales here, and they are willing to pay much more than the typical Mainer can. Now that remote work has taken off, this trend will probably accelerate.

[Gato]

Apr 1, 2021 12:44:30 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

HOLD UP. I googled Prop 19 since I don't live in CA. People can sell their houses and buy more expensive ones while maintaining the taxes they paid on the cheaper house? Say what?

Yup. And it’s no shock that the California school system has really degraded because of it.

[Velar Fricative]

Apr 1, 2021 14:52:25 GMT -5 outnumbered said:

Apr 1, 2021 13:09:22 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

Yup. I feel like real estate has been tight in my area for years, but lately it seems even more insane. I'm curious about the sustainability too. But the fact is that there is huge demand and very low supply for the desirable Boston suburbs. There is no more land to build, so all the small homes are being bought by developers, bulldozed, and then replaced with a $1M+ new construction. It kind of sucks. We got lucky and bought in 2009, so we've appreciated considerably. I'd love to upgrade, but to get what we'd want (one more bedroom and a garage), we would have to more than double our mortgage. I feel kind of stuck unless we move to lower COL.

I live 12 miles north of Boston in a town with a commuter rail station.  We are also at the junction of 93 and 95.  Our house is worth $200,000 more than when we bought at the beginning of 2006 (when we thought prices were high). It is absolutely crazy, we have done nothing to it.  I wanted to move my parents nearby, but there are no affordable small houses.  They are being sold well out of their range and knocked down to built 1.5 to 2 million dollar houses.  There are no small houses being built anymore.  It is awful and frustrating.

If DH weren't so set on a house with a garage for our next house, I'd love a house like this that's pretty typical in my NYC neighborhood.



One story above grade, they almost all have 3BR and 1 or maybe 1.5 bathrooms. Living room and kitchen may be on the smaller side but totally fine for my needs. Those with finished basements effectively double the living space of the house and usually provide another full bathroom, family/tv room, laundry room, and sometimes another room of some sort (office, bedroom, gym, etc.). The ones that have come up for sale lately almost always end up going immediately under construction to add a second floor, and I've noticed a few become 2-family homes (the second floor becomes an apartment). This kind of home would be perfect for so many types of households - people who need one-floor living for mobility reasons, people who just don't want a huge house (this one and most like it are 1,100 sq ft or so), etc. But developers are not building houses like this anymore, so adding additions to these smaller homes will just further reduce the amount of smaller houses that will eventually be brought to market, further shutting out many people from the housing market. 

BTW, this home sold for $450k in 2010 and has been renovated top to bottom since then and just sold for $709k (asking price). Non-renovated homes (not gut jobs, just houses that may not have a finished basement, need cosmetic updates, etc.) like this are selling for about $600k right now on average.

[notsopicky]

Velar Fricative, that is a super cute house.

[livinitup]

Apr 1, 2021 15:16:59 GMT -5 Gato said:

Apr 1, 2021 12:44:30 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

HOLD UP. I googled Prop 19 since I don't live in CA. People can sell their houses and buy more expensive ones while maintaining the taxes they paid on the cheaper house? Say what?

Yup. And it’s no shock that the California school system has really degraded because of it.

I don't know much about this except that I have an aunt who lives in Redondo Beach (outside LA) and bought her house in 1982. She has shared in great detail, over many years how the tax situation has "trapped" her. Because CA only taxes them based on the sale of the house, with no re-assessments. So, even though their house has GREATLY increased in value, they pay next to nothing in taxes (still based upon the 1982 sale). Thereby creating a HUGE dis-incentive to move. And plus also, renovating houses seems to have little to no zoning restrictions, so cute little capes that used to dot her block now have random 3 story houses built right to the property line. It makes an awful mess of the esthetics of neighborhood in every single way. 

So, Prop 19 passed in part to encourage would-be "trapped" home owners to move. Among other things. Its a mess.

[Bernadine]

Apr 1, 2021 12:36:41 GMT -5 Patsy Baloney said:

Yep, there’s no inventory here. I’ve toyed with selling because $$$$$$ but we’d have nowhere to move to!

Same here!

[HRH Queen Dick I, Orphan]

Apr 1, 2021 11:34:01 GMT -5 sonrisa said:

A house in Berkeley just went for double the asking price. So $2.3 instead of $1.15 million. For 3 bed, 2 bath, 2.5k sqft.

All the boomers cashing in on the prop 19 changes are messing up the already frothy market.

www.zillow.com/homedetails/6-Harvard-Cir-Berkeley-CA-94708/24844059_zpid/

Tbf, that is wildly underpriced in the first place. Don't do this to yourself.

[Velar Fricative]

Apr 1, 2021 16:06:50 GMT -5 notsopicky said:

Velar Fricative, that is a super cute house.

Right??? Makes me sad that they’ll slowly but surely disappear.

[sent]

IDK. We are in a desirable suburb with an easy commute to Manhattan. I have a 4 BD, 2.5 BA with a 2 car attached garage and my house is probably in the top 25% of larger homes in the town. The majority of SFH are much smaller or don't have garages. I see houses with 3 BD, 1.5 or 2 BA and maybe 1 garage go for what we paid 5 years ago; 5 years ago, those smaller homes went for at least $150K less. Yet we tried to re-finance our home and the companies were all saying our house has appreciated less than $100K in 5 years because they look at recent comps. No one near us has sold a house like ours nearby in over 5 years.

[morecoffeeplease]

It's crazy in the Hamptons Road area in VA. We built in 2019 and houses in our neighborhood are going for almost 100,000 over what they were built for. Some of our military friends are moving here and there is no base housing (months of wait lists) and it's almost impossible to find rentals or homes to buy. Another friend listed their house and had a line of cars waiting to see it within a few hours. It's crazy.

[melmel48]

The market is crazy here. My cousin told me about two houses near her that sold for a ton of $$ sight unseen. I could get a good amount of $$$ for my condo, but then I have nowhere to go. Even with a nice profit, it wouldn't be enough to put down on any place so that I could afford the payment.

[sonrisa]

Apr 1, 2021 12:44:30 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

HOLD UP. I googled Prop 19 since I don't live in CA. People can sell their houses and buy more expensive ones while maintaining the taxes they paid on the cheaper house? Say what?

its a three part ponzi scheme for boomers leaving everyone else homeless.

1) Because of prop 13, your property tax is set at the time of purchase and cannot increase more than 3% per year regardless of market value.

2) pre-prop 19: if seniors sold before feb 16, they could sell/give their home to their kid *and the kid would keep the property tax basis set from the initial purchase in 1970 (or whatever)*

The kid doesn’t even have to live in the home. They can rent it and keep that ancient tax basis until they sell or die.

3) post prop 19: seniors can now take their low tax basis and transfer it to any new home purchase in the state. (Up to theee times). If the new home is more expensive than the old home, it’s just a partial increase.


Soooooo: tax savvy seniors sold to their kids before feb 19 to get the old tax benefits. They then sat on the money until after to get the new tax benefits. So now they are rushing into the market, cash rich from their transfer, and snapping up everything in sight.

You can see this huge jump in prices and offers this past month that is out of line from the already crazy pandemic increases. $300-400k above asking (when the asking was in line with the previous month’s comps.

(@livinitup -prop 19 means your aunt can now move in state and keep that basis)

[sonrisa]

Apr 1, 2021 17:12:53 GMT -5 HRH Queen Dick I, Orphan said:

Apr 1, 2021 11:34:01 GMT -5 sonrisa said:

A house in Berkeley just went for double the asking price. So $2.3 instead of $1.15 million. For 3 bed, 2 bath, 2.5k sqft.

All the boomers cashing in on the prop 19 changes are messing up the already frothy market.

www.zillow.com/homedetails/6-Harvard-Cir-Berkeley-CA-94708/24844059_zpid/

Tbf, that is wildly underpriced in the first place. Don't do this to yourself.

very true.

[dreamcrisp1]

Yep. It’s insane here. We lost 3 bids on houses. The house we finally ended up getting, we bid 13% over asking and all the offers were at the same price but they liked us the best so we got lucky. There’s barely inventory and tons of people house hunting. A lot of people have sold their homes in the city for cash and are able to cash fund purchases in the smaller cities. It’s crazy. And I’m not sure I see it changing with Brexit and more companies setting up shop in the Netherlands.

Oh and 2 offers on the house were people who hadn’t even viewed it. Like that’s just insane!

[imojoebunny]

I don't think Atlanta's prices are over the top. Lots of people moving here, and companies are investing in the city, and I see Atlanta continuing to grow and housing cost to become more like other major cities, at least close in. Where I see the big bubble, is outside of town, where our vacation house is. My neighbor bought his house for $280K last year, in January. The same house a few doors down is selling for $425K now. The average income in the town is around $30K. The prices are all being driven up by remote workers and people looking to do vacation rentals. I see a crash coming to the exhurbs. My uncle lives in Menlo Park, CA and has lived in the same house for 40 years. He can't afford to move because of property taxes. He could easily clear $3M, but finding a cheaper place wouldn't make it work, with the tax issue. I hope that prop 19 does what it is intended to do, but I think setting the tax basis when people buy is a shit law to begin with, as much as, it would benefit us. There are other ways, such as senior school tax exemptions that are more fair.

[laurack]

Yes it’s completely insane around here. I live north of Boston in an increasingly popular coastal city. Bidding wars, houses selling for 70k over asking etc. we want to move but I can’t deal with the current situation. We can sell our home for way more than we paid and get a great down payment as we have all that equity but it’s no good to us in this market. I just don’t want to deal with the madness, when we are simply looking to move from our 2 bed 1 bath house to a normal 3-4 bed 2 bath house. Not looking for the most amazing house in the world here, but I’m not getting into a bidding war on a 2000 square foot house that was 500k 4 years ago and now is 800 for some reason.

I’m hoping as inventory picks up things will improve.

[snapoutofit]

I live northwest of Boston in the greater lowell area. It’s crazy here. Every house that goes up for sale pretty much sells at 1st open house. Bidding wars. Cars lined up and down the street. In my neighborhood it’s mostly Ranch houses on slab foundation that need a lot of updates and they’re going for >500k. It’s crazy to me.

[laurack]

Another thing people are doing here to make their offers more attractive is waiving the inspection which is complete insanity to me!

[scm1011]

Apr 1, 2021 19:39:45 GMT -5 laurack said:

Another thing people are doing here to make their offers more attractive is waiving the inspection which is complete insanity to me!

That’s the thing here, too. I’m in a Boston adjacent city and we’d love to move from our apartment to a single family, but the few single families that go up for sale sell for $100K+ over asking, all cash offers, inspection waved. It’s absolutely impossible for people like us who don’t have $800k+ cash sitting in the bank.

[fivechickens]

Our house was $250k we bought in 2013. It is now Zestimated at $389k of that is even close to accurate than yes it ridiculous here too.

Our house, while nice, is not worth that IMO.

[rubytue]

Apr 1, 2021 19:39:45 GMT -5 laurack said:

Another thing people are doing here to make their offers more attractive is waiving the inspection which is complete insanity to me!

Maybe it’s because my H works in the trades, but that worries me less than the appraisal and even financing contingency. So if something comes up in underwriting that no one expected, and the loan falls through, you are still on the hook to by the house 😳😳😳

We’ve waived inspection on a few, based on deciding that the only things that would make us back out are structural or water leakage - and we can see those by looking at the foundation.

one house, we even opened up the termite sentry boxes around the foundation before making our offer 😂 my theory is it’s no different than opening cabinet doors. 

[pinkdutchtulips]

Apr 1, 2021 15:16:59 GMT -5 Gato said:

Apr 1, 2021 12:44:30 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

HOLD UP. I googled Prop 19 since I don't live in CA. People can sell their houses and buy more expensive ones while maintaining the taxes they paid on the cheaper house? Say what?

Yup. And it’s no shock that the California school system has really degraded because of it.

my gpa basically pays nothing in property taxes on a house he bought in 1972 (pre Prop 13 but was grandfathered in) for $35k that now appraises for $1.1M in the San Gabriel Valley

[k3am]

Apr 1, 2021 19:39:45 GMT -5 laurack said:

Another thing people are doing here to make their offers more attractive is waiving the inspection which is complete insanity to me!

People have been doing this here for a long time. I know our first house we bought in 2011, we waived inspection.

Here, the seller will have an inspection done and provide the paperwork to any potential buyers. On a nice house, you either agree to it, or your offer won’t be accepted.

[janegold]

We just had our refi appraisal and our house appraised for over $200k more than what we bought it for 15 months ago. We were torn about leaving the city for the burbs but feel like we got really lucky on that timing.

[noodleoo]

Apr 1, 2021 14:52:25 GMT -5 outnumbered said:

Apr 1, 2021 13:09:22 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

Yup. I feel like real estate has been tight in my area for years, but lately it seems even more insane. I'm curious about the sustainability too. But the fact is that there is huge demand and very low supply for the desirable Boston suburbs. There is no more land to build, so all the small homes are being bought by developers, bulldozed, and then replaced with a $1M+ new construction. It kind of sucks. We got lucky and bought in 2009, so we've appreciated considerably. I'd love to upgrade, but to get what we'd want (one more bedroom and a garage), we would have to more than double our mortgage. I feel kind of stuck unless we move to lower COL.

I live 12 miles north of Boston in a town with a commuter rail station.  We are also at the junction of 93 and 95.  Our house is worth $200,000 more than when we bought at the beginning of 2006 (when we thought prices were high). It is absolutely crazy, we have done nothing to it.  I wanted to move my parents nearby, but there are no affordable small houses.  They are being sold well out of their range and knocked down to built 1.5 to 2 million dollar houses.  There are no small houses being built anymore.  It is awful and frustrating.

I grew up in your town (or one neighboring it!). I really wish I had bought my parents house when they moved to FL. Of course I was 24 and not ready for it! Kicking myself now... I live a few exits south of you near the mall. We’re so lucky we got our house when we did. I don’t even know how young couples starting out do it anymore. A house almost exactly the same as ours in a much less desirable neighborhood just sold for double what we paid in 2009. 😳😳😳

[sadlebred]

It doesn't seem that bad in Atlanta. Houses are going for over asking by maybe 3-5%. In my area they seem to be going for asking price but don't stay on the market more than a few days. Values have gone up about 20% in the last year. I'm actually priced out of my area if I were to buy now.

[kooshball]

I assume folks waiving inspection are getting one pre offer so they know what they are getting into. Maybe wrong assumption. Heh

[pugz]

It is fuckin nuts here. A house in a friend’s neighborhood had had 60+ showings and 20 offers