I’ll be honest, if he wins the nomination it will be really hard to go out of my way to knock doors and host events for his campaign. I’ll hold my nose and vote for him, and grudgingly campaign for him. But I certainly lynwony have the energy and fervor I would for a real candidate.
Right, why campaign hard for someone who has the personal cultural history to understand the pain of targeted genocide and could free people from cages?
I don’t like the guy, and I’ll vote for my favorite in the primary, but I’ll campaign hard for the nom even if it’s Captain Underpants himself.
I said it will be hard, not that I won’t do it. But he’ll be one of the saddest choices if I’m being honest. And I'm far from alone in having trouble mustering excitement. Obama got people excited to campaign for him and to vote for him. Warren and Harris excite the same. Biden is boring and outdated. His gaffes were cute as VP, but embarrassing for the top of the ticket. So I would knock doors, but I can’t say I’d be as enthusiastic or excited.
Right, why campaign hard for someone who has the personal cultural history to understand the pain of targeted genocide and could free people from cages?
I don’t like the guy, and I’ll vote for my favorite in the primary, but I’ll campaign hard for the nom even if it’s Captain Underpants himself.
I said it will be hard, not that I won’t do it. But he’ll be one of the saddest choices if I’m being honest. And I'm far from alone in having trouble mustering excitement. Obama got people excited to campaign for him and to vote for him. Warren and Harris excite the same. Biden is boring and outdated. His gaffes were cute as VP, but embarrassing for the top of the ticket. So I would knock doors, but I can’t say I’d be as enthusiastic or excited.
Right, and I’m saying that not being excited about any candidate that could free people from cages is an issue.
I said it will be hard, not that I won’t do it. But he’ll be one of the saddest choices if I’m being honest. And I'm far from alone in having trouble mustering excitement. Obama got people excited to campaign for him and to vote for him. Warren and Harris excite the same. Biden is boring and outdated. His gaffes were cute as VP, but embarrassing for the top of the ticket. So I would knock doors, but I can’t say I’d be as enthusiastic or excited.
Right, and I’m saying that not being excited about any candidate that could free people from cages is an issue.
I’m pretty sure that’s the average person’s reaction to Biden. Yes, I’ll vote for him in the general. Yes I’ll even volunteer to knock doors to him. But he’s basically my last choice , about even with Bernie. Mostly because he won’t attract less traditional voters to the polls. He won’t attract people who will have to wait hours on line to exercise their right to vote. He won’t attract the young voters who will need to beg for time off for one of their three jobs. He simply won’t attract the groundswell of support Obama will. And several other candidates can and will.
Biden’s not my first, second, or fifth choice, but if he gets the nomination, I’m going all out on doors for him, and the important races down the ballot in 2020.
You can replace “Biden” with any other candidate, cardboard box, half eaten pop tart, old shoe, and I still stand by my statement.
I said it will be hard, not that I won’t do it. But he’ll be one of the saddest choices if I’m being honest. And I'm far from alone in having trouble mustering excitement. Obama got people excited to campaign for him and to vote for him. Warren and Harris excite the same. Biden is boring and outdated. His gaffes were cute as VP, but embarrassing for the top of the ticket. So I would knock doors, but I can’t say I’d be as enthusiastic or excited.
Right, and I’m saying that not being excited about any candidate that could free people from cages is an issue.
We're still in the primary process. We're allowed to not be excited by one of the possible nominees.
Right, and I’m saying that not being excited about any candidate that could free people from cages is an issue.
We're still in the primary process. We're allowed to not be excited by one of the possible nominees.
This. For the record I’m not going to be excited about Biden. I don’t care if he gets the nomination. I will do what I need to do but I’ll resent the fuck out of everyone who took the bait and brought us a mediocre candidate because they bought some idiot party line on electability based off a few early polls.
Biden’s not my first, second, or fifth choice, but if he gets the nomination, I’m going all out on doors for him, and the important races down the ballot in 2020.
You can replace “Biden” with any other candidate, cardboard box, half eaten pop tart, old shoe, and I still stand by my statement.
I keep saying I’d vote for warm mayo v. Trump. So if Biden or shouty Bernard get the nom....warm, old mayo it is. But fuck if we can’t do better. Vote your passion in the primary and vote your duty, like people’s lives depend on it, in the general. Jesus, it’s not that hard.
Do we even know what state OP is in? Like I have my preferred candidate, but my primary isn’t until April so it’s anybody's guess who is even going to still be in the race at that point.
Do we even know what state OP is in? Like I have my preferred candidate, but my primary isn’t until April so it’s anybody's guess who is even going to still be in the race at that point.
That’s a good point. I’m in NJ, so our primary isn’t until June, so it’s effectively pointless.
Post by downtoearth on Aug 26, 2019 13:18:25 GMT -5
So fivethirtyeight was just talking about the demographics of Biden supporters and if he has as enthusiastic supporters as Warren and others. Spoiler - he does.
It's a good read b/c it's not all just individual poll numbers - it's how strongly people in those polls like that person along with the demographics of those polled. Basically Biden is polling higher with black Dems and non-college educated older Dems, and those aren't the demographics in some liberal enclaves areas (or the Dems in Iowa who are 70% white and college-educated and very liberal). It's not that he has an issue with support right now, it's that early places that aren't playing well to his demographics will probably sway people who were supporting him to consider other candidates before they get to their primary. So, since I like Warren and Harris more, I hope that Iowa (and other early primaries) sway Dem voters away from Biden. There is just so much more than polling high in Texas 1+ year out from a primary that will make voters reconsider or evaluate who they align with.
Biden’s numbers are OK in Iowa, but not great. Some 31 percent of Democrats say they have a very or strongly favorable view of him, which is essentially tied with Sanders for fourth place in the field. By comparison, 46 percent of Iowa Democrats have a strongly favorable view of Warren. (And remember, these polls are a couple of months old — she’s gained ground in most national and early-state polls since then.) Meanwhile, 40 percent also have a strongly favorable view of Harris and Pete Buttigieg.
Whenever we see a divergence between Iowa polls and national polls, the question is whether it has something to do with Iowa’s demographics or, rather, the fact that the campaign is more active in Iowa than it is nationally. If the differences are demographic in nature, then Biden might not have as much to worry about — the Democrats who turn out to caucus in Iowa are white and liberal, whereas he overperforms among nonwhite and moderate Democrats, who make up bigger parts of the electorate in states such as South Carolina and most of the Super Tuesday states. Alternatively, if Biden’s numbers are middling in Iowa because voters don’t like him as much upon prolonged exposure to him, that could mean it’s more of a canary in the coal mine, and that voters in other states will tire of Biden once they begin paying more attention to the campaign.
These explanations aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive — but on balance, the demographic hypothesis is more persuasive in Biden’s case. In 2016, 91 percent of Iowa’s Democratic caucus electorate was white, as compared to around 60 percent nationally in the Democratic primaries. And almost 70 percent of voters there identified as liberal, as compared to about 50 percent nationally. Those are big differences, and not ones that are favorable for Biden’s coalition, so it’s reasonable to expect he might be doing quite a bit worse there than he is nationally. Furthermore, as I mentioned, national polls show Biden doing just as well with highly attentive voters as with voters overall, which should also lead us to discount the canary-in-the-coal-mine hypothesis.
Actually, the candidate who should be really worried about his Iowa numbers is Sanders. Iowa’s demographics should boost his coalition, but his favorability numbers are just as lukewarm as Biden’s there.
But getting back to Biden: Even if his issues in Iowa are mostly linked to demographics, the state could still be a major concern for him. That’s because Iowa can affect the result of every state that votes after it.
The speakers in these stories are always enthusiastic about Warren, delighted by her intellect, inspired by her policy agenda, and happy about the prospect of a woman president. But they seem confident that they’re alone, or at least in the minority, in liking these things. The speakers are progressive, but think that nobody else is; they want a woman president, but they feel that the rest of the electorate is too sexist to vote for one. They want to vote for Warren in the primary, but feel that they shouldn’t, or can’t afford to. Instead, they should capitulate to what they imagine are other voters’ bad impulses, so that when the general election rolls around, the Democrats will have a candidate who they think is more likely to beat Trump—a centrist, that is, and a man.
downtoearth the PSA episode addressed that somewhat. Essentially, the type of minority voters who vote in the primary (who tend to be somewhat older POCs) are scared of not nominating someone who is electable, and since everyone is rallying about Biden as the most "electable" it creates a vicious cycle.
downtoearth the PSA episode addressed that somewhat. Essentially, the type of minority voters who vote in the primary (who tend to be somewhat older POCs) are scared of not nominating someone who is electable, and since everyone is rallying about Biden as the most "electable" it creates a vicious cycle.
I'll try to listen later - I think fivethirtyeight is saying that the early primary states might scare those demographics away from Biden at the last minute b/c he won't look electable. If Biden doesn't do as well in Iowa and New Hampshire then a lot of those voters that were going with Biden as "safe" might sway in SC and NC based on how other candidates do early. Plus some of the other Super Tuesday states, like Texas could also sway. Being from a late primary state, we see that a lot... the early primary polls in our state swing a lot from Feb to June when we vote - they sway towards the front runner more and more over time.
At the dfl booth at the Minnesota state fair yesterday. We can't give up on a good candidate yet.
I saw someone (Shaun King, maybe?) post a pic of the State Fair area where Bernie was this weekend with a caption of something like "Minnesota sure loves Bernie." Which .. might be true, and he may have had a good crowd, but the picture looked like every other crowded State Fair picture in history.
At the dfl booth at the Minnesota state fair yesterday. We can't give up on a good candidate yet.
I saw someone (Shaun King, maybe?) post a pic of the State Fair area where Bernie was this weekend with a caption of something like "Minnesota sure loves Bernie." Which .. might be true, and he may have had a good crowd, but the picture looked like every other crowded State Fair picture in history.
There is no way in hell that Biden is taking Trump in Texas.
Beto almost but didn't quite beat out Cruz in Texas. Beto is much more favored in Texas than Biden.
I really think Harris would have the best chance in Texas. There is a lot of Black Girl Magic working around here right now. Lots of coalition building. Lots of networking. Look what happened in January: www.npr.org/2019/01/16/685815783/meet-black-girl-magic-the-19-african-american-women-elected-as-judges-in-texas (I have heard Black Girl Magic so much I thought of that before this article - there is a strong wave here in the Houston area).
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.
I doubt he will be the nominee, but you really wouldn't vote for Bernie over Trump? Or you just wouldn't vote? I can't fathom anyone who cares about politics sitting this one out.
I'm in Illinois, which has as much chance of shifting purple as I do of walking on the moon.
IF Bernie was the nominee, and IF Illinois suddenly became in play, I'd do it. Otherwise, no.
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.
I think it’s fair to be concerned about Warren increasing turnout. But I think if she can’t excite voters, I don’t see how Biden would be any different.
Sadly, I think that Biden calms people. Biden ain't great, but he would signify to an unfortunate number of voters "things returning to normal."
I just have a bunch of people in my sphere who left that line blank on their ballots in 2016 that have stated over and over they'd go Biden, but nobody else. They'd leave the item blank again.
Democrats like to be right, winning is an added bonus and losing is part of life. Republicans know you can't govern if you don't first win. They fall in line.
I'll vote for just about anyone the democrats pick other than Bernie Sanders.
But I do not believe, for one single second, that the people who stayed home in 2016 will come out for Warren. I just don't.
Look, I hate Bernie Sanders as much as anyone, what with his shouty old man persona, his sense of entitlement, and his efforts to hijack the Democratic party while not, you know, actually being a member of it, but COME ON. Our figurative house is on fire. Instead of refusing to use a garden hose to try to put the fire out because it's not your preferred brand, maybe use the hose and salvage the building?
As I've said before, I'm in a completely solid blue state with a really late primary.
That being said, IF Bernie became the nominee and IF Illinois suddenly somehow leaned red, I'd vote for him. But I think he'd be just about a complete disaster.
I live in Houston and have not seen any support showing for Biden at all. I do travel in very liberal circles, so I do not know that is really reflective of the whole city. I think what we need is energy, youth, diversity, and a platform that includes social justice to get people out and motivated to vote.
There was recently a proposal to cut all funding from meals on wheels, and due to a petition, this did not go through. There are plenty of people in Texas who are liberal, but they are often written off as living in a conservative state.
Instead of trying to appeal to everyone, we need politicians who do make broad proposals. Of course, that can cause a different problem if these things can not get off the ground. I think to motivate voters, you need to tell them what you are offering and attempting to do. This offer can not be vague, like "I am better than Trump." Honestly, I think a turnip is better than him, but instead, we need people out there saying, I am campaigning for $15/hr, women's access to healthcare, a path to citizenship, or whatever they want their pet project to be. One reason Bernie has support is that he is out there shouting about what he wants. Given his track record and age, I do not believe he has the skill to get it done, but at least he is saying something, and saying it often. Other candidates do have some issues they want to work on, but they are not out there blasting it on social media to everyone who does not even want to hear about it.
Of course we need those things. We have always needed those things.
And that youth, that energy? Even in 2016 when Trump was on the line, stayed the fuck home. In 2012 - Stayed the fuck home. Who comes out to vote? The older folks. I don't like it either. But it is what it is.
I won't be a bit surprised if Warren gets the nomination. Heck I like Warren and think she has some decent ideas! She's not necessarily my favorite (and neither is Biden), but I have crazy respect for her and think she's great. I just have zero confidence that she can beat Trump. Every Democrat response to getting anyone other than Biden across the goal line involves "Well, if we just do amazingly herculean efforts and get higher voter turnout than we've ever seen and and and...."
I didn't realize that blue states had the option of just sitting out on this one.
Cool.
I have said if my state is in play I'd vote for the guy. That's more than like, several hundred thousand fucking Bernie Bros in WI, MI, and OH managed to do in 2016. It is, in fact, enough, to vote for a completely crap candidate that is still better than his steaming dogpile opponent
I live in Houston and have not seen any support showing for Biden at all. I do travel in very liberal circles, so I do not know that is really reflective of the whole city. I think what we need is energy, youth, diversity, and a platform that includes social justice to get people out and motivated to vote.
There was recently a proposal to cut all funding from meals on wheels, and due to a petition, this did not go through. There are plenty of people in Texas who are liberal, but they are often written off as living in a conservative state.
Instead of trying to appeal to everyone, we need politicians who do make broad proposals. Of course, that can cause a different problem if these things can not get off the ground. I think to motivate voters, you need to tell them what you are offering and attempting to do. This offer can not be vague, like "I am better than Trump." Honestly, I think a turnip is better than him, but instead, we need people out there saying, I am campaigning for $15/hr, women's access to healthcare, a path to citizenship, or whatever they want their pet project to be. One reason Bernie has support is that he is out there shouting about what he wants. Given his track record and age, I do not believe he has the skill to get it done, but at least he is saying something, and saying it often. Other candidates do have some issues they want to work on, but they are not out there blasting it on social media to everyone who does not even want to hear about it.
Of course we need those things. We have always needed those things.
And that youth, that energy? Even in 2016 when Trump was on the line, stayed the fuck home. In 2012 - Stayed the fuck home. Who comes out to vote? The older folks. I don't like it either. But it is what it is.
I won't be a bit surprised if Warren gets the nomination. Heck I like Warren and think she has some decent ideas! She's not necessarily my favorite (and neither is Biden), but I have crazy respect for her and think she's great. I just have zero confidence that she can beat Trump. Every Democrat response to getting anyone other than Biden across the goal line involves "Well, if we just do amazingly herculean efforts and get higher voter turnout than we've ever seen and and and...."
2020 will be nothing like 2016. Everything has changed. Don’t underestimate the younger voters.
I live in Houston and have not seen any support showing for Biden at all. I do travel in very liberal circles, so I do not know that is really reflective of the whole city. I think what we need is energy, youth, diversity, and a platform that includes social justice to get people out and motivated to vote.
There was recently a proposal to cut all funding from meals on wheels, and due to a petition, this did not go through. There are plenty of people in Texas who are liberal, but they are often written off as living in a conservative state.
Instead of trying to appeal to everyone, we need politicians who do make broad proposals. Of course, that can cause a different problem if these things can not get off the ground. I think to motivate voters, you need to tell them what you are offering and attempting to do. This offer can not be vague, like "I am better than Trump." Honestly, I think a turnip is better than him, but instead, we need people out there saying, I am campaigning for $15/hr, women's access to healthcare, a path to citizenship, or whatever they want their pet project to be. One reason Bernie has support is that he is out there shouting about what he wants. Given his track record and age, I do not believe he has the skill to get it done, but at least he is saying something, and saying it often. Other candidates do have some issues they want to work on, but they are not out there blasting it on social media to everyone who does not even want to hear about it.
Of course we need those things. We have always needed those things.
And that youth, that energy? Even in 2016 when Trump was on the line, stayed the fuck home. In 2012 - Stayed the fuck home. Who comes out to vote? The older folks. I don't like it either. But it is what it is.
I won't be a bit surprised if Warren gets the nomination. Heck I like Warren and think she has some decent ideas! She's not necessarily my favorite (and neither is Biden), but I have crazy respect for her and think she's great. I just have zero confidence that she can beat Trump. Every Democrat response to getting anyone other than Biden across the goal line involves "Well, if we just do amazingly herculean efforts and get higher voter turnout than we've ever seen and and and...."
What about 2008, though? Isn't this how Obama got elected? Inspiring people who would not have otherwise voted? We did not elect a black man as President by relying on old people who have always voted for the status quo.
If we keep doing what we've always done, we're going to keep getting what we've always gotten. What we have isn't working. I think literally anyone in the world would be better suited for the presidency than Trump, but has he really forced us to lower the bar so low that we'll settle for a country that isn't working for the vast majority of citizens, just because that's better than the current dumpster fire happening in the White House? It's tempting to go the safe route but the safe route still screws us in the end.
Post by Patsy Baloney on Aug 28, 2019 16:32:53 GMT -5
The flippancy of, "Old people vote so fuck the youths," is grating on me.
I will never forget standing on the grounds of the Old State Capitol building when Pres. Obama declared his candidacy. I won't forget voting for him either - I was 22.
My family ran in a very conservative, Catholic circle, and it pissed that group off to see that type of energy and vigor injected into an election cycle. They pooh-poohed like those who were excited for this moment and this person potentially becoming the leader of the free world were idiots. I bet they expected that the dumb kids would stay home.
I really won't stand for people acting like there's no value in candidates who get young people, minority groups, marginalized people, etc. excited to cast a vote. They already have so much against them with all of these bullshit voting restrictions that have gone into place. Don't throw up the middle finger and act like old white people should be catered to because they rigged the vote for themselves.