Here's the thing. I'm not excited about anyone who is left. Probably the most interested in Warren. So, for me, I plan to vote for the person that I think is most likely to have a chance at beating Bernie and then Trump. I vote on super Tuesday. I don't plan to vote early as I want to see what happens in SC and NV. Depending on how things are looking, I will make a decision. I might feel differently if Harris or Castro or someone I really liked was left, but I don't. So, I will vote strategically. I don't see what is wrong with that approach.
What are you basing your strategy on? Unless this is your job and you’re absurdly good at it, you don’t have a clue what’s best. All this bullshit about Biden or Bloomberg being able to beat Trump—no one fucking knows. The two of them have major baggage and vulnerabilities.
Vote for the person whose values and vision best align with yours.
Here's the thing. I'm not excited about anyone who is left. Probably the most interested in Warren. So, for me, I plan to vote for the person that I think is most likely to have a chance at beating Bernie and then Trump. I vote on super Tuesday. I don't plan to vote early as I want to see what happens in SC and NV. Depending on how things are looking, I will make a decision. I might feel differently if Harris or Castro or someone I really liked was left, but I don't. So, I will vote strategically. I don't see what is wrong with that approach.
What are you basing your strategy on? Unless this is your job and you’re absurdly good at it, you don’t have a clue what’s best. All this bullshit about Biden or Bloomberg being able to beat Trump—no one fucking knows. The two of them have major baggage and vulnerabilities.
Vote for the person whose values and vision best align with yours.
I'm not excited about anyone. That's the problem. So, I will vote for who I think is looking good to knock out Bernie. I'm getting a little tired of being attacked here for how I plan to vote.
Just take a deep breath. Maybe someone will drop out. Maybe some scandalous bomb will drop on someone. Maybe the results from the next two states will provide a lot more clarity.
Or maybe we'll be on the eve of Super Tuesday and things will be as muddled as they are today. But even if that happens, it's still not all over. The other thing to keep in mind is that the reasonable candidates (IMO they are Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar) likely know that a brokered convention would be a disaster and may be inclined to rethink some things if it's a complete disaster after Super Tuesday. Let's just take things one day at a time.
This primary is giving me an ulcer and I have my very dark moments, so I completely get it. But really, if you are lucky enough to be able to cast a vote this early, don't waste it simply because 47 white people who don't work on Tuesday nights really liked Pete Buttigieg.
Just take a deep breath. Maybe someone will drop out. Maybe some scandalous bomb will drop on someone. Maybe the results from the next two states will provide a lot more clarity.
Or maybe we'll be on the eve of Super Tuesday and things will be as muddled as they are today. But even if that happens, it's still not all over. The other thing to keep in mind is that the reasonable candidates (IMO they are Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar) likely know that a brokered convention would be a disaster and may be inclined to rethink some things if it's a complete disaster after Super Tuesday. Let's just take things one day at a time.
This primary is giving me an ulcer and I have my very dark moments, so I completely get it. But really, if you are lucky enough to be able to cast a vote this early, don't waste it simply because 47 white people who don't work on Tuesday nights really liked Pete Buttigieg.
I just moved to a Super Tuesday state. I think I preferred my later Illinois voting date. It was less stressful.
Can you guys at least wait until like ten brown people have voted before ringing the alarm bells?
I get it, this primary is a shit show.
But if you are going to be all OMG WE HAVE TO PICK A UNITY CANDIDATE OR WE WILL HAVE BERNIE ELEVENTY, can you at least see what happens in SC and NV first?
JHC. None of us like the situation we are in but like 50 delegates out of 2000 have been awarded FFS. Even after Super Tuesday, there’s still going to be something like 1400 left to dole out.
Go read about the 1992 democratic primary and how Bill Clinton was a complete loser at the start to calm yourselves.
This. Holy shit you guys have some perspective. It’s way too early to start trying to game the primary to vote for who you think is “electable” and frankly if we start doing that this early we are going to be in a world of hurt come November. No one knows what is going to happen yet. And if you think you know you can basically guarantee that you’re wrong.
I get that. But our early voting starts Tuesday. This is very much something I have been thinking about a ton due to the proximity of our election cycle. So....I’m going to vote for Warren but I didn’t think it too early to be worried or to find a reason to feel optimistic or hopeful. But I will save my hand wringing for later.
OP, I also vote on Super Tuesday and am at a complete loss as to what to do. Right now, my candidate is Not Bernie but what does that mean? I guess I’m prepared to vote Pete if that’s where the moderate/traditional liberal wing is more apt to congregate, and he’s leading in delegates.
It is a damn crime that outside groups aren’t flooding the airwaves with Bernie oppo.
Now is absolutely the time to vote for whichever candidate you like the most. I get that you just might not be sure who that is, though.
All of my favorites are out. I have issues with all the remaining candidates, but find several to be very strong. Right now I’m leaning toward Klobuchar, but I have about a month before I need to mail in my ballot so I’m going to wait for a little while to decide.
I have a little over 2 weeks and it’s not getting any easier, lol. I’ve also been leaning towards Klobuchar. I think she’d be a good Commander in Chief as well as advance liberal domestic priorities.
What are you basing your strategy on? Unless this is your job and you’re absurdly good at it, you don’t have a clue what’s best. All this bullshit about Biden or Bloomberg being able to beat Trump—no one fucking knows. The two of them have major baggage and vulnerabilities.
Vote for the person whose values and vision best align with yours.
I'm not excited about anyone. That's the problem. So, I will vote for who I think is looking good to knock out Bernie. I'm getting a little tired of being attacked here for how I plan to vote.
I get it. It’s how I feel. It’s not a popular perspective. “Vote for who you love” only works if you love any of them.
, if you are lucky enough to be able to cast a vote this early, don't waste it simply because 47 white people who don't work on Tuesday nights really liked Pete Buttigieg.
Dems don't necessarily have to win Florida, which is trending red, if they win Wisconsin and Arizona. (And PA and Michigan, etc.) But he likely won't win those, either. Unions have been gutted in Wisconsin thanks to Scott Walker, and the unions that still exist are wary of M4A (at least the way Bernie wants to implement it).
Dems don't necessarily have to win Florida, which is trending red, if they win Wisconsin and Arizona. (And PA and Michigan, etc.) But he likely won't win those, either. Unions have been gutted in Wisconsin thanks to Scott Walker, and the unions that still exist are wary of M4A (at least the way Bernie wants to implement it).
No, we don’t HAVE to win Florida. But Bernie at the top of the ticket essentially takes it completely off the table. And we shouldn’t be taking a state like that completely off the table.
The GOP opp file on this guy is going to be ridiculous.
He did a weekly radio show in Vermont FOR YEARS. He was on public access tv all the time in Burlington in the 80s. I trust that there are RNC interns who have watched and listened to all of these things and the hits will just keep coming if he’s the nominee.
He spent the 70s not paying child support and stealing electricity and writing essays about women fantasizing about being raped.
His wife is a grifter who bankrupted a college. If he’s the nominee, Barr and Guilani will do to her what they did to Hunter Biden, except this time I’m confident they will find actual crimes.
There is literally a video of him singing naked with Russians floating around the internet. No I’m not kidding. This exists.
Just wait until CNN decides these things are news. It will be over.
See. This right here is what’s scaring me. Y’all. What if he wins the most delegates. What then?
Edited to add that I’ve had this feeling that we’re echoing 2016. People were convinced Trump couldn’t take it the whole way and there were all these reasons he wouldn’t win. Then he did.
I guess I was looking for hair pats and to be told it would be all right. Lol. 😭
Oh, if he surprises everyone and wins the ELECTION that will be fine. I don't think he'll get anything done and might only last 4 years, but he's not Trump. It's losing by a horrendous margin to the orange menace that's the problem.
His whole “thing” for everything from winning A election to implementing His agenda is that he will turn out a “revolution” of new voters. This hasn’t happened. And there is no evidence that this is going to happen. Actually the evidence suggests that it won’t happen.
In addition to all the stuff I said up thread (I feel honored), I saw that apparently the DCCC has internal polling for CA-25, Katie Hill’s district. Christy Smith, a sitting CA assemblywoman, is polling at the top. Then 2 Republicans. THEN Cenk Uygur, who Bernie endorsed and was forced to (weakly) retract his endorsement almost immediately, is in 4th with 5 percent. That district is in Orange County and is traditionally Republican. Like a lot of districts that Ds flipped in 2018, it’s suburban, was won by a woman, and was largely won due to suburban women. You think the district that Jon Ossof but Lucy McBath won is going to go for Bernie? Or turn out for McBath with Bernie on top of the ticket? Basically with Bernie on the top of the ticket, not only do I predict Trump wins again, but I think Ds would lose the House. The hardcore Bernie people VASTLY overestimate his universal popularity.
It's not that they underestimate his popularity - it's that they don't care about anything or anyone else. They think Bernie is the only one who will somehow, singlehandedly, change our entire system of government. Blow up the system. Anything else and you might as well be voting for the ghost of George Wallace with Barry Goldwater as his running mate. It's the old Republicrats/Democans song and dance that Nader used when he ran. THE PARTIES ARE EXACTLY ALIKE. You know, if you're a privileged white man.
I'd say probably 60%+ of Bernie supporters I see are like that. The rest are hopelessly naive and just like his ideas and don't see that it will be impossible to do what he's promising and even harder for him to get elected in the first place.
In addition to all the stuff I said up thread (I feel honored), I saw that apparently the DCCC has internal polling for CA-25, Katie Hill’s district. Christy Smith, a sitting CA assemblywoman, is polling at the top. Then 2 Republicans. THEN Cenk Uygur, who Bernie endorsed and was forced to (weakly) retract his endorsement almost immediately, is in 4th with 5 percent. That district is in Orange County and is traditionally Republican. Like a lot of districts that Ds flipped in 2018, it’s suburban, was won by a woman, and was largely won due to suburban women. You think the district that Jon Ossof but Lucy McBath won is going to go for Bernie? Or turn out for McBath with Bernie on top of the ticket? Basically with Bernie on the top of the ticket, not only do I predict Trump wins again, but I think Ds would lose the House. The hardcore Bernie people VASTLY overestimate his universal popularity.
It's not that they underestimate his popularity - it's that they don't care about anything or anyone else. They think Bernie is the only one who will somehow, singlehandedly, change our entire system of government. Blow up the system. Anything else and you might as well be voting for the ghost of George Wallace with Barry Goldwater as his running mate. It's the old Republicrats/Democans song and dance that Nader used when he ran. THE PARTIES ARE EXACTLY ALIKE. You know, if you're a privileged white man.
I'd say probably 60%+ of Bernie supporters I see are like that. The rest are hopelessly naive and just like his ideas and don't see that it will be impossible to do what he's promising and even harder for him to get elected in the first place.
I agree. I have no idea why they think he has this magically ability to just completely overhaul the government with the flick of a pen.
Post by Dumbledork on Feb 18, 2020 12:18:08 GMT -5
Bernie could have another heart attack on the eve of Super Tuesday or two days later, and you would have wasted a vote on beating Bernie instead of supporting who actually represents you.
Don’t give up your ST vote when Bernie could keel over at any moment.
Post by downtoearth on Feb 18, 2020 14:20:47 GMT -5
I know we're skewed anti-Bernie here. I'm all in for the Bernie dislike. He grates me and is so typical of the rise of the lazy boomer dude who has good ideas, but never gets anything done b/c the people doing the work are not seen or heard or given the credit from him. Plus his cadence and shouting are frustrating as hell. He isn't empathetic and if he tries to act sweet to kids or babies, it's all act and honestly very inauthentic - similar to #45 like that. Plus I really feel like NH and Iowa are not the tell-alls of political turnout and involvement as they once thought themselves.
But I, reluctantly and with a sinking heart, do think Sanders is a viable Dem candidate if he wins the primary. And honestly, the higher voter turnout in NH is part of the reason I'm hopeful that we could also win with any Dem nominated - even Sanders. The turnout was closer to 2008 turnout and not like the lower 2016 Dem turnout, but there are also more registered voters now. That is good. Promising, but honestly, we need better turnout to beat #45. And I really am digesting this piece from fivethrityeight about how Sanders is viable, but that these are his overall weaknesses as a Dem leader:
There isn’t much evidence of this for Sanders. On the contrary, his favorability ratings are roughly as good as any other Democrat’s — and often the best in the field, depending on which poll you look at.
It’s also worth mentioning that Sanders gets a lot of support from younger African Americans and Hispanics, making his coalition among the most diverse in the race. Granted, he does have very little support from voters over the age of 65, but of all demographic deficiencies, that may be one of the easier ones to overcome. There are plenty of young voters in every state, provided you can turn them out.
Additionally, a set of YouGov polls last week showed Sanders winning in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against every other Democrat — narrowly beating Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren while more clearly defeating Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg. (There are some qualifications to that YouGov poll. Buttigieg and Klobuchar still have fairly low name recognition, and earlier polling that tested head-to-head matchups hadn’t shown Sanders doing so well, especially against Biden.)
But if you look at the actual behavior of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire — and the most recent polling from upcoming states on how voters are reacting to the Iowa and New Hampshire results — then there are a few troubling signs for Sanders, including some evidence of what you might call a ceiling on support. In no particular order of importance:
1. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders did relatively poorly among late-deciding voters. In New Hampshire, he got 17 percent of the vote among voters who decided in the last few days, as compared to 35 percent among voters who decided before then. And in Iowa, he got just 13 percent of late-deciders, versus 28 percent of early-deciders. These numbers are a potential hallmark of a campaign that emphasizes turnout over persuasion. They identify their voters early, and they turn them out. But they don’t have a lot of voters drift into their orbit late in the race.
2. In Iowa, where voters could realign to second choices if their candidate didn’t clear the viability threshold (usually 15 percent in their precinct), Sanders gained relatively little from this process, going from 24.7 percent on the first-alignment vote to 26.5 percent on the final alignment — a gain of 1.8 percentage points. (By contrast, Buttigieg added 3.8 percentage points to his vote total via this realignment process despite starting out with a lower vote share than Sanders.) Sanders’s gains were considerably less than our model expected, too. It thought that if Sanders had around 25 percent of the initial vote, he would have wound up with about 30 percent of the vote after realignment. This realignment process doesn’t take place in most states — although it does occur in Nevada and a few states later on that have ranked-choice voting — but it’s nonetheless a negative sign for Sanders as it would seem to indicate that he is relatively few voters’ second choice. That means he might not stand to gain as much as other candidates when opponents drop out or fall in the polls.
3. Based on the evidence we have so far, Sanders has gotten relatively little bounce in the polls from his outright win in New Hampshire and popular-vote win4 in Iowa. In our national polling average, he is at 22.9 percent, only slightly higher than he was in our final average before Iowa, when he was at 21.7 percent.
4. Even in fairly liberal states like New Hampshire, voters seem to prefer a more moderate candidate in the abstract. Nearly two-thirds of voters in the New Hampshire exit poll said they preferred a candidate who could beat Trump to one who agreed with them on the issues. (Although, note that a lot of voters see Sanders as being electable, and he polls pretty well in head-to-head polls against Trump.) And 50 percent of voters said Sanders’s positions were too liberal. Meanwhile, the combined vote shares for Buttigeig, Klobuchar and Biden (52.6 percent) considerably exceeded that for Sanders and Warren (34.9 percent). No, it’s not quite as simple as there being two distinct lanes (left and moderate) with no overlap between them. But as the primary has evolved, the electorate has behaved more and more as the lanes theory might predict — Buttigieg and Bloomberg have gained ground as Biden has declined in national polls, for instance.
5. Finally, turnout in the first two states has been a mixed bag. Turnout in Iowa was 176,000 people, about what it was in 2016 but well below 2008 and what most observers expected. Turnout in New Hampshire — about 300,000 voters in the Democratic primary — did end up being record-breaking. The Iowa numbers probably weren’t as bad as they looked, though. The caucuses did not receive their typical amount of media attention, thanks to a busy news calendar involving impeachment, the Super Bowl and other stories. Also, Iowa has drifted red, so there are simply fewer Democratic voters in that state than there once were. But if the Iowa numbers weren’t as bad as they looked for Democrats, the New Hampshire ones weren’t as good as they seemed. Democrats were not going up against a competitive Republican primary as they were in 2008 or 2016, which helped boost turnout in a state where independents can vote in either primary. Nor was turnout particularly high as a share of registered voters as the number of registered voters has grown since 2008.
So overall, while Democratic turnout has been just fine, it has not exactly been revolutionary, so to speak. It may even be that the Sanders campaign — if it has a highly loyal but relatively fixed number of voters — prefers lower turnout overall, since that means its base will make up a higher share of the electorate. In Iowa, with its relatively low turnout, 24 percent of voters were under 30. In New Hampshire, meanwhile, under-30 voters were just 13 percent of the electorate, down from 19 percent in 2016.
What happens after or if Sanders is the one and if he does 4 years without dying or disenfranchising all of Congress? I don't know, but I'll be happy to discuss that here if he wins.
Let's talk about the coallition building that is necessary to win the presidency from #45 more than personal sinking feelings. The primary isn't decided and we get to vote as we want now. And Sanders isn't the pick of a big part of the base of Dems - and hasn't been trying to sway those people in their campaign, but instead is pushing ahead with lower turnout and with his own loyal demographic group. I'm interested to see if Sanders can pivot to try to get more Dems to his side - he's not one to compromise on his views, and I worry that overall turnout will be lower if he is the Dem nominee. But I'm waiting to see how this all goes... there are still so many other states to weigh in and Bloomberg is bringing a new challenge in the moderate lane too.
I am probably going to get flamed for this, but I'd rather Sanders get the nomination with a clear delegate count than end up with a brokered convention and an unclear consensus on the nominee. I really can only see the latter scenario being a hot holy mess that sinks the election.
downtoearth, don’t get excited by NH turnout. It was an open primary and in exit data many voters declared they would never vote for the D in the general no matter who won. So spoiler voters.
downtoearth , don’t get excited by NH turnout. It was an open primary and in exit data many voters declared they would never vote for the D in the general no matter who won. So spoiler voters.
So true. Yeah, it's better than 2016 in numbers, but not good per se. I agree with fivethirtyeight on that one. We need more Dems out and I don't know that Sanders has more to pull from. He's going to need some serious coalition building - even in super white states and especially in states that have some diversity.
The Bernie Bros are an extreme turnoff, they were in 2016 and are even more insufferable. I don't want another old white guy yelling at me 24/7. I can't get behind him, can't do it. I am in PA and will still vote my heart at the Primary. And will even vote for a mofo ham sandwich if that is the Dem nominee in the general. I will vote blue no matter who but for real, we know the bros won't vote blue if it isn't Bernie, they didn't do it in 2016, why start now. I unfriended bros back in 2016 when they bitched about Tangerine Mussolini and got pissy when I asked how their protest vote for Jill FUCKING Stein (that's my auto fill BTW) was working out for them.
Don't get me started on Not you Tulsi is the new Jill FUCKING Stein this election cycle.
He’s tripling down in the town hall!!! Omg I’m fucking pissed. I hate him. And he dismissed the dem congresswomen who came out against his comments as “oh they’re voting for someone else” as if it doesn’t matter what they think. Wow
He’s tripling down in the town hall!!! Omg I’m fucking pissed. I hate him. And he dismissed the dem congresswomen who came out against his comments as “oh they’re voting for someone else” as if it doesn’t matter what they think. Wow
I do know he's not bad like Trump as bad. But he grates on me when he speaks just the same as Trump does. I have not been able to watch more than a few seconds of him speak since he took office. I'd feel the same about Bernie. Jesus America. The man is OLD OLD OLD. Can we not do better? Can we really not?
He’s tripling down in the town hall!!! Omg I’m fucking pissed. I hate him. And he dismissed the dem congresswomen who came out against his comments as “oh they’re voting for someone else” as if it doesn’t matter what they think. Wow
This is like a Biden stance. "Whatever, she can just go vote for Trump, then!"
I think what’s bothering me most is a refusal to acknowledge that the abuses were well-known at the time Sanders was there. This isn’t some misguided union organizer in the 30s, by the late 80s you fucking knew who you were dealing with.