This isn't really a data tracker but...prospective scenarios across the US if we don't shelter, if we social distance, if we shelter-in-place, if we lockdown - with last-chance dates. Seattle/Washington state has already passed it's point of no return, which is kind of scary.
This isn't really a data tracker but...prospective scenarios across the US if we don't shelter, if we social distance, if we shelter-in-place, if we lockdown - with last-chance dates. Seattle/Washington state has already passed it's point of no return, which is kind of scary.
That’s really interesting. I think that my state (IA) is in between social distancing and shelter in place right now. Most non-essential places are either WFH or closed. Schools are closed for at least another 3 weeks. Restaurants are takeout only, movie theaters are closed, salons/spas are closed, etc. No groups over 10 people. But the official line is “social distancing.”
I think it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in more rural areas where the population density is so much less. Unfortunately, the number of hospital beds is also incredibly small. My hometown local hospital has an ER, but I don’t think they have an ICU. I think all ICU cases go to the hospital 40 minutes away (the last I heard, it was also the closest place to be tested).
Post by litebright on Mar 25, 2020 12:25:18 GMT -5
Not a direct COVID-19 tracker, but this is a data tool that a company put together based on anonymous cell phone data and looking at how often/far phones are moving across the U.S., extrapolating it and giving each state a grade on how well people are following through on social distancing.
This isn't really a data tracker but...prospective scenarios across the US if we don't shelter, if we social distance, if we shelter-in-place, if we lockdown - with last-chance dates. Seattle/Washington state has already passed it's point of no return, which is kind of scary.
I really like these projections by state, but I also haven't heard that any states are going to "shelter in place" for 3 months like the simulations are using as a prediction. I wish they would do a 4 week shelter in place simulation then follow that with social distancing for 2 months to see what happens.
This isn't really a data tracker but...prospective scenarios across the US if we don't shelter, if we social distance, if we shelter-in-place, if we lockdown - with last-chance dates. Seattle/Washington state has already passed it's point of no return, which is kind of scary.
I really like these projections by state, but I also haven't heard that any states are going to "shelter in place" for 3 months like the simulations are using as a prediction. I wish they would do a 4 week shelter in place simulation then follow that with social distancing for 2 months to see what happens.
The Bay Area or even CA might. It started March 16, was extended by Newsom's order for all of CA. The earliest possible end date I've seen is May 1st from the schools. Newsom said it's indefinite and has told his kids they won't be going back to school this year, which means through mid june.
According to this, CO has more than enough ICU beds, so that’s a bright spot.
FL is okay so that's good for my in-laws and son and his fiancée and her family (if Tampa has enough beds. It's a big state. They may all be in Miami for all I know.) My daughter in GA is not as fortunate with over 2K bed shortage; she's been really on Kemp for his lack of supports and structure. My son in ID should be okay with only 30 beds short. But he's in the Moscow Pullman area so who knows where those beds are all located. Looks like we'll be okay on all beds but a bit short on ICU beds here in WA. But then Trump hates us because our governor is a snake. ;P CA looks to be okay, NY is very certainly not, with a several thousand bed shortage as soon as next week.
Lots of states appear to have a surplus of beds, so I'm wondering on accuracy and also if the folks in the areas who are all "no big deal" will *ever* see what a big deal this actually is. (Indiana will have a shortage so that should be interesting.)
I'm not sure I fully understand this one, but if I do, it looks like some states will have plenty of beds. Will we start to see some patients being moved out of state to hospitals with extra capacity?
Anyone read and understand enough of the methods to explain how they are calculating the projected peak dates in different states? The resource needs presumably aren't peaking due to everyone being infected (not big enough for that), but based on falling cases due to people sheltering in place and not infecting one another.
For example, I'm seeing they say NY will peak on April 6th, but that Oregon will not peak until April 24th. This is even though both states put out stay at home orders on the same day, and Oregon had it's schools and services shut down sooner.
Anyone read and understand enough of the methods to explain how they are calculating the projected peak dates in different states? The resource needs presumably aren't peaking due to everyone being infected (not big enough for that), but based on falling cases due to people sheltering in place and not infecting one another.
For example, I'm seeing they say NY will peak on April 6th, but that Oregon will not peak until April 24th. This is even though both states put out stay at home orders on the same day, and Oregon had it's schools and services shut down sooner.
I'm a health sociologist and not an epidemiologist, but I did read the full paper last night and my understanding of it is that they based the curves on the 33 states that had sufficient data, plus some international datasets, and did some population matching. While some states did implement the social distancing at the same time, the populations aren't comparable. The R0 (average number of people one person can go on to infect) varies by environment, including community factors like density, sanitization, access to care, etc.
If you think about a population center like NYC, it's much easier for every infected person to infect many others than it might be in states without that type of urban center - while sure, every state has a big city, they don't all look like NYC in terms of density.
Part of the model also includes time from outbreak, and NY is farther along the outbreak curve than OR if you look at days since first case and days since reaching 100 cases.
So, in this one that was posted above, www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, it shows a fatality rate in closed cases of 18%. Is that right? Why is that so much higher than the numbers we've been hearing. I know that is for closed cases only, but that still seems really high.
ETA: why is there an emoji in my post? I didn't add that.
So, in this one that was posted above, www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, it shows a fatality rate in closed cases of 18%. Is that right? Why is that so much higher than the numbers we've been hearing. I know that is for closed cases only, but that still seems really high.
ETA: why is there an emoji in my post? I didn't add that.
It compares deaths so far to all cases with an outcome (recoveries so far + deaths), which gives a very high death rate for countries still early on the curve because deaths often happen faster than recoveries. Other sources give the death rate as deaths so far out of all cases so far, which is also also wrong because some sick people haven't died yet, but will. If you want actual good numbers, you want to look at places where most cases have reached an outcome (death or recovery), and where testing was actually fairly comprehensive. Although don't forget that death rate is expected.to vary from place to place based on population demographics and availability of healthcare.
covidactnow.org/ this one will raise the hairs on the back of your neck.
I think that it is a lot more dire than many models. This is the one I've been seeing on Reddit a lot and it seems to fall in line with a lot of the predictions I've seen written about.
covidactnow.org/ this one will raise the hairs on the back of your neck.
I think that it is a lot more dire than many models. This is the one I've been seeing on Reddit a lot and it seems to fall in line with a lot of the predictions I've seen written about.
This seems very different from all the other forecasting tools. It is suggesting the FL is fine and needs no extra capacity. Seems odd given that FL over indexes on retirees, has limited testing and has open beaches.
Do any of the data trackers show a percent of the population that has tested positive, e.g. x% of NY city residents tested positive or % of Italian population that tested positive? We have a new county data tracker that includes this stat and now my city (a suburb) was declared a "hot bed" by one of the local news broadcasts. I'm wondering how we compare.
Do any of the data trackers show a percent of the population that has tested positive, e.g. x% of NY city residents tested positive or % of Italian population that tested positive? We have a new county data tracker that includes this stat and now my city (a suburb) was declared a "hot bed" by one of the local news broadcasts. I'm wondering how we compare.
You can calculate by pulling the numbers from here:
But areas that are only testing people with symptoms are going to have a higher % than areas that are doing more widespread testing. Here is an image of the data pulled from the link. I know Washington State has been hovering around 7% for awhile now.
I think that it is a lot more dire than many models. This is the one I've been seeing on Reddit a lot and it seems to fall in line with a lot of the predictions I've seen written about.
This seems very different from all the other forecasting tools. It is suggesting the FL is fine and needs no extra capacity. Seems odd given that FL over indexes on retirees, has limited testing and has open beaches.
It doesn't say FL is fine. It illustrates a pretty large ICU bed shortage at the peak for Florida.
covidactnow.org/ this one will raise the hairs on the back of your neck.
I think that it is a lot more dire than many models. This is the one I've been seeing on Reddit a lot and it seems to fall in line with a lot of the predictions I've seen written about.
They must be continuing to update this info. I know for certain that I saw on a projection that looks exactly like this one(99.9% sure it WAS this one) that was predicting a peak of April 24th and a 95 bed shortage in ICU for Iowa. I believe it also said 100+ ventilators. Now it says peak April 15th with 0 ICU bed shortage and 52 ventilators needed. I hope the new data is more accurate and possibly it reflects that we started social distancing and things like takeout when there were only 3 travel related cases in the entire state.
I think that it is a lot more dire than many models. This is the one I've been seeing on Reddit a lot and it seems to fall in line with a lot of the predictions I've seen written about.
They must be continuing to update this info. I know for certain that I saw on a projection that looks exactly like this one(99.9% sure it WAS this one) that was predicting a peak of April 24th and a 95 bed shortage in ICU for Iowa. I believe it also said 100+ ventilators. Now it says peak April 15th with 0 ICU bed shortage and 52 ventilators needed. I hope the new data is more accurate and possibly it reflects that we started social distancing and things like takeout when there were only 3 travel related cases in the entire state.
Yes, they're updating every day and detailing how the models are changing with new information in their write-ups. Their noted margins of error around their curves are huge, so every possible piece of additional data helps to tighten things up. IHME is super well respected in the health analytics world. They do fascinating work.
They must be continuing to update this info. I know for certain that I saw on a projection that looks exactly like this one(99.9% sure it WAS this one) that was predicting a peak of April 24th and a 95 bed shortage in ICU for Iowa. I believe it also said 100+ ventilators. Now it says peak April 15th with 0 ICU bed shortage and 52 ventilators needed. I hope the new data is more accurate and possibly it reflects that we started social distancing and things like takeout when there were only 3 travel related cases in the entire state.
Yes, they're updating every day and detailing how the models are changing with new information in their write-ups. Their noted margins of error around their curves are huge, so every possible piece of additional data helps to tighten things up. IHME is super well respected in the health analytics world. They do fascinating work.
I'm starting to lose faith in this one, just because of how drastically it has gone back and forth for my state. I just re-checked it and now we're supposed to peak on the 30th and be 11 regular beds short (instead of >1000 extra), 408 ICU beds short, and 523 ventilators needed. That's 10 times as many vents needed given just 2 additional days' worth of data.
I just need to stop looking at these. Only time will really tell. I'll do my part and encourage others to do the same. The rest is out of my control.
They must be continuing to update this info. I know for certain that I saw on a projection that looks exactly like this one(99.9% sure it WAS this one) that was predicting a peak of April 24th and a 95 bed shortage in ICU for Iowa. I believe it also said 100+ ventilators. Now it says peak April 15th with 0 ICU bed shortage and 52 ventilators needed. I hope the new data is more accurate and possibly it reflects that we started social distancing and things like takeout when there were only 3 travel related cases in the entire state.
Yes, they're updating every day and detailing how the models are changing with new information in their write-ups. Their noted margins of error around their curves are huge, so every possible piece of additional data helps to tighten things up. IHME is super well respected in the health analytics world. They do fascinating work.
This is fascinating from a scientific standpoint. A few days ago when I checked Colorado was going to be way under resourced (like <50% of needed beds) at our peak on April 15, and now it suggests we're already a day past our peak and will have enough beds.
I'm curious what is changing. Is social distancing working? Are we adding capacity? Is the model getting better?