This is terrifying! I am aghast at the state of our country right now.
Every weekend, this Trump train, an ever growing line of trucks (mostly), drives from conservative Placer County through our town and on into Sacramento. I thought they were aggressive until I saw this video. 😥
Love of my life baby boy born 11/11. One and done not by choice; 3 years of TTC yielded 4 MMC and 2 CPs, through 4 IUIs and 2 IVFs. Focusing on making the world a better place instead...and running.
Here's the problem with the Hill opinion piece, summed up in one paragraph:
Third, the content of the current news cycle. What’s going on in a particular moment in time can influence voter attitudes, particularly in swing states. For example, the recent revelation of Hunter Biden’s hidden emails on his laptop, coupled with the link to his father, has come at an opportune time for the president. Moreover, if the economic recovery continues, the good news may continue putting wind in Trump’s sails.
Does ANYONE outside the MAGA bubble think that Hunter Biden's laptop is a bigger story than COVID? Does anyone else think the "economic recovery" is going great? Or how about Trump's chief of staff saying we're not going to control the pandemic?
The current news cycle is absolutely devastating for Trump––the only reason his support hasn't completely collapsed is because Fox News insulates his base from the news!
So basically, the clear problem we have is MEN. Manly men of all colors will vote for Trump.
Internalized racism and self-hate. Also believing their proximity to alt-right brand of whiteness will be looked at favorably by the white “ruling class.” Apparently, 45’s campaign has been focusing a lot of efforts on turning Latinx voters and Black men away from voting blue.There’s a lot of political Black face happening on all sorts of platforms. There’s a forum I frequent of predominantly Black women infiltrated by MAGA trolls in Black face or just plain ol’ MAGA denigrates trying very hard to sway members from supporting Biden.
Article from US News and World Report updating their predictions.
This is the main point of the article "A month ago, we had Biden with 290 electoral votes leaning his way, compared to 185 for Trump and 63 in the tossup category. That put Biden above the all-important 270 electoral-vote benchmark for winning the presidency. Biden remains above 270 electoral votes in our assessment, though he's down slightly this month to 279. However, Trump has suffered an even bigger erosion, falling to 163. In turn, the tossup category has ballooned to 96 electoral votes."
Post by Velar Fricative on Oct 28, 2020 12:38:20 GMT -5
I also always try to keep in mind that HRC was very unlikeable. Deserved or not, she just was. Biden does not inspire that same level of dislike. So unless something dramatic happens with 6 days to go, I don’t see a huge shift in Biden’s numbers.
I also always try to keep in mind that HRC was very unlikeable. Deserved or not, she just was. Biden does not inspire that same level of dislike. So unless something dramatic happens with 6 days to go, I don’t see a huge shift in Biden’s numbers.
One of the late night hosts - Colbert or Myers - referenced a survey that says people like Biden because he's likable. Likability really does go a long way. Especially when you have that combined with a very moderate candidate. I know some people dislike moderates because they aren't that much different than Republicans, and Trump supporters are trying to paint Biden as an extremist socialist. But, I think most Americans like a moderate, likable candidate.
Of course racism and sexism influence voters' perceptions of likability which is why Obama was targeted so much more than any white president and HRC lost Michigan by 10,000 votes.
The narrowly part of the headline gave me a bit of a scare. But when I read the article it meant the margin was still the same that we have been seeing. I understand that margin is narrow, but I thought there had been a big shift or something. #2016ptsd
Same same. But honestly, right now, I was expecting it to tighten up more, so keeping steady is "good enough" for me right now.
Agree. I was expecting to see a 3 point lead. I'm ok with 7.
Plus, HRC's lead was really starting to take a hit by this point in 2016. It should not have been so surprising that she lost the general.
So basically, the clear problem we have is MEN. Manly men of all colors will vote for Trump.
He gives their "quien es mas macho" a place to be glorified. The same reason all men will vote for him...he is the personified deity of the "real man" they all think needs to exist.
I also always try to keep in mind that HRC was very unlikeable. Deserved or not, she just was. Biden does not inspire that same level of dislike. So unless something dramatic happens with 6 days to go, I don’t see a huge shift in Biden’s numbers.
Labeling HRC unlikeable is such a sexist, bullshit thing to do. I can’t even formulate a good argument for this this morning because I’m so stressed and pissed off, but this is horseshit.
Saying she’s unlikeable in this context puts the blame on her instead of the gop, sexists, general assholes, and the actual strategy behind politics. Not to mention how it ignores the fact that she was likeable by about 3 million more votes than Trump.
I also always try to keep in mind that HRC was very unlikeable. Deserved or not, she just was. Biden does not inspire that same level of dislike. So unless something dramatic happens with 6 days to go, I don’t see a huge shift in Biden’s numbers.
Labeling HRC unlikeable is such a sexist, bullshit thing to do. I can’t even formulate a good argument for this this morning because I’m so stressed and pissed off, but this is horseshit.
Saying she’s unlikeable in this context puts the blame on her instead of the gop, sexists, general assholes, and the actual strategy behind politics. Not to mention how it ignores the fact that she was likeable by about 3 million more votes than Trump.
Right. It's not that she wasn't warm and fuzzy enough. It was that she's cast as the conservatives' boogey man.
I also always try to keep in mind that HRC was very unlikeable. Deserved or not, she just was. Biden does not inspire that same level of dislike. So unless something dramatic happens with 6 days to go, I don’t see a huge shift in Biden’s numbers.
One of the late night hosts - Colbert or Myers - referenced a survey that says people like Biden because he's likable. Likability really does go a long way. Especially when you have that combined with a very moderate candidate. I know some people dislike moderates because they aren't that much different than Republicans, and Trump supporters are trying to paint Biden as an extremist socialist. But, I think most Americans like a moderate, likable candidate.
Of course racism and sexism influence voters' perceptions of likability which is why Obama was targeted so much more than any white president and HRC lost Michigan by 10,000 votes.
Y’all. Voter suppression is a thing.
Hillary did not lose because she was less likeable than Trump. Come on.
Did Stacy Abrams lose because she was less likeable than Kemp?
Article from US News and World Report updating their predictions.
This is the main point of the article "A month ago, we had Biden with 290 electoral votes leaning his way, compared to 185 for Trump and 63 in the tossup category. That put Biden above the all-important 270 electoral-vote benchmark for winning the presidency. Biden remains above 270 electoral votes in our assessment, though he's down slightly this month to 279. However, Trump has suffered an even bigger erosion, falling to 163. In turn, the tossup category has ballooned to 96 electoral votes."
I'm quoting Rachel Bitecofer again because it's relevant and reassuring:
Prepare yourself, because it is a radical statement:
At least so far, the “changes” we’ve seen in polls this cycle (when one poll shows Pennsylvania at 6 points and another at 3 points), are due to different polling methodologies, weird sample draws, or just plain random polling “noise”–not actual preference change.
I mean sometimes, preferences change! At least they used to, not all that long ago. But almost every time one of you sends me an angsty tweet or email, the “change” you are freaking out about is not an actual preference change. Instead, it is the product of polling methodology differences.
But it’s totally NOT YOUR FAULT for thinking it is preference change, because the media covers polls as such. Rarely does the media–or heck, even analysts–cover polling data appropriately (don’t believe me? See footnote 1 and think back to how many discussions you’ve seen where small differences between voters of a different age, or race have been dissected for you from a survey and realize now that the large error terms often are larger than the differences discussed!)
The media especially loves horserace narratives.
You might even argue it needs them like a junkie needs a fix. When a cycle denies them compelling horserace narratives, the media starts looking for them.
One of the late night hosts - Colbert or Myers - referenced a survey that says people like Biden because he's likable. Likability really does go a long way. Especially when you have that combined with a very moderate candidate. I know some people dislike moderates because they aren't that much different than Republicans, and Trump supporters are trying to paint Biden as an extremist socialist. But, I think most Americans like a moderate, likable candidate.
Of course racism and sexism influence voters' perceptions of likability which is why Obama was targeted so much more than any white president and HRC lost Michigan by 10,000 votes.
Y’all. Voter suppression is a thing.
Hillary did not lose because she was less likeable than Trump. Come on.
Did Stacy Abrams lose because she was less likeable than Kemp?
And then they convince the voters that certain types of people (women, POC) are “unelectable.”
I also always try to keep in mind that HRC was very unlikeable. Deserved or not, she just was. Biden does not inspire that same level of dislike. So unless something dramatic happens with 6 days to go, I don’t see a huge shift in Biden’s numbers.
Labeling HRC unlikeable is such a sexist, bullshit thing to do. I can’t even formulate a good argument for this this morning because I’m so stressed and pissed off, but this is horseshit.
Saying she’s unlikeable in this context puts the blame on her instead of the gop, sexists, general assholes, and the actual strategy behind politics. Not to mention how it ignores the fact that she was likeable by about 3 million more votes than Trump.
I liked her. And yes, this is sexist bullshit. It worries me because I want to see a woman President. But, at the end of the day I want this asshole out of the White House we can’t withstand 8 years of damage and for a significant portion of the people where HRC ended up losing the EC, “likeability” matters. I am trying to hold onto literally anything that will give me hope about next week because I can’t even picture another 4 years of Trump. It will be a hellfire of misery.
One of the late night hosts - Colbert or Myers - referenced a survey that says people like Biden because he's likable. Likability really does go a long way. Especially when you have that combined with a very moderate candidate. I know some people dislike moderates because they aren't that much different than Republicans, and Trump supporters are trying to paint Biden as an extremist socialist. But, I think most Americans like a moderate, likable candidate.
Of course racism and sexism influence voters' perceptions of likability which is why Obama was targeted so much more than any white president and HRC lost Michigan by 10,000 votes.
Y’all. Voter suppression is a thing.
Hillary did not lose because she was less likeable than Trump. Come on.
Did Stacy Abrams lose because she was less likeable than Kemp?
I don't disagree. Voter suppression is a real thing for sure and Kemp stole the election.
But, lots of people didn't like HRC, and they couldn't give a reason other than "I just don't like her" or "she rubs me the wrong way" or "she's a bitch."
There were valid reasons to disagree with HRC on policy, her record, her experience, just being plain, old sick of the Clintons. But I think a chunk of the dislike for HRC boiled down to the fact that she was a woman and the traits or characteristics that are seen as positive or acceptable in a man made her as a female candidate unappealing to a chunk of people. I don't think the majority of people didn't vote for HRC did so because she was a woman, but it was enough added to everything else (suppression, Russian interference, etc.) that tipped the election to Trump.
Labeling HRC unlikeable is such a sexist, bullshit thing to do. I can’t even formulate a good argument for this this morning because I’m so stressed and pissed off, but this is horseshit.
Saying she’s unlikeable in this context puts the blame on her instead of the gop, sexists, general assholes, and the actual strategy behind politics. Not to mention how it ignores the fact that she was likeable by about 3 million more votes than Trump.
I liked her. And yes, this is sexist bullshit. It worries me because I want to see a woman President. But, at the end of the day I want this asshole out of the White House we can’t withstand 8 years of damage and for a significant portion of the people where HRC ended up losing the EC, “likeability” matters. I am trying to hold onto literally anything that will give me hope about next week because I can’t even picture another 4 years of Trump. It will be a hellfire of misery.
My point is that voter suppression and sexism were bigger factors than likeability. Listing likability as the reason is, once again, sexist and furthering the impact of sexism in politics.
If anyone from the area is reading this, I have a question just because I'm curious.
The article says that the buses were having trouble getting to the airport because the surrounding road was jammed.
Was it jammed with Trump supporters who couldn't get in to the rally, so they just disregarded basic traffic laws and parked on the road outside? (Or illegally parked along the road in places that were too narrow to let buses through?)
Or were the roads jammed with people who were protesting Trump?
I am suspecting that Trump supporters who just did their own thing and jammed up the road themselves is what caused the problem here.
Definitely not protesting Trump. There was a small anti-Trump protest nearby but nothing that would cause traffic problems. It was predominantly the busses got stuck in parking lots with cars all trying to leave and not being able to get back to the people. The parking lots were almost 4 miles away and people started to walk but also caused traffic back ups. They did a horrible traffic flow with the airport parking lots, the busses should have had their own in and out lanes. Also, according to the local scanner page, a lot of people had no idea where they parked in daylight to find their cars at night.
Here's the problem with the Hill opinion piece, summed up in one paragraph:
Third, the content of the current news cycle. What’s going on in a particular moment in time can influence voter attitudes, particularly in swing states. For example, the recent revelation of Hunter Biden’s hidden emails on his laptop, coupled with the link to his father, has come at an opportune time for the president. Moreover, if the economic recovery continues, the good news may continue putting wind in Trump’s sails.
Does ANYONE outside the MAGA bubble think that Hunter Biden's laptop is a bigger story than COVID? Does anyone else think the "economic recovery" is going great? Or how about Trump's chief of staff saying we're not going to control the pandemic?
The current news cycle is absolutely devastating for Trump––the only reason his support hasn't completely collapsed is because Fox News insulates his base from the news!
Yep. I got to that part and was like "who is this guy?" Then I saw that he's a chairman of the republican party. It all makes sense now. The Hunter Biden story was barely even a blip.
The Washington Post @washingtonpost · 13m "Anonymous" will soon no longer be anonymous.
The author of "A Warning," the buzzy book criticizing the president written by a Trump administration staffer, is expected to be revealed later Wednesday afternoon, people familiar with the planning say.
On one hand...exciting news. On the other...too little, too late with millions already voted. Plus will it really move Trump voters? nope.
Can someone explain the Hunter Biden laptop/emails like I’m 5? Is there really anything to it?
A computer store owner in Delaware claims that someone (ostensibly Hunter) dropped off three damaged laptops, only one of which was salvageable. When no one picked up the laptop he decided to look through its contents and decided to pass them on to unspecified people he thought would help him deal with it. He won't say who. Ultimately it ended up in the hands of Rudy Giuliani who took it to the NY Post, and supposedly was subpoenaed by the FBI. The shop owner's story has some inconsistencies and he's been evasive in answering questions about it.
The supposed contents are mostly embarrassing personal stuff (e.g. photos of crack pipes and a sex tape) but the only thing of substance is an email that hints at Hunter trying to set up a meeting with Joe and someone from Burisma, and some vague references to "the big guy" which rightwing media claimed referred to Joe. There really isn't much of substance. Other impending revelations have been teased but it's so close to the election and so many people have voted...if anything big was there, we would all know about it by now.
ETA: Hunter's former business partner (Bobulinski) gave an interview on Tucker Carlson last night, which was also not nearly as damning as it was hyped up to be. I hate to give Fox the clicks, but I think it's important to note that even they admit this isn't a smoking gun.