If you want some good data analysis, Dave Wasserman is the guy to follow. I don’t particularly care for his personality but he does a good job of breaking things down and communicating benchmarks. He also seems to have access to the district-level polling. He’s talking about TX this morning - turnout is highest in the suburban districts right now, particularly around Austin.
I’ve heard that TX is bluer than people think, its problem has been turnout because everyone has assumed their vote doesn’t matter. The talk of TX being a swing state has dramatically accelerated turnout.
The 2 main differences between TX and NY are 1. Higher percentage of rural voters 2. Low turn out in bigger cities. This starts with voter registration which I believe is challenges in TX.
If turn out improved in bigger cities and democrats can improve their margins in rural areas then TX would be at least purple and I believe it was a swing state back in the 70s.
There are other differences too but overall I do think long term investment in TX would pay off a lot for dems.
I agree about the long term investment. Different since it’s issue advocacy and not a campaign but we have had great luck with building grassroots power and momentum in Texas. We won’t be winning anything soon, but with continued investments we have a shot at winning in a few years. If we ignored TX we’d never ever win, period. I am hopeful that the infrastructure Beto built is a good starting foundation for this year, and to build on in the future.
It still gives me a rage stroke reading news articles about campaigning... Well, Biden campaigns, Trump holds rallies. Another way these two could not be more different.
I just read through Wasserman’s tweets. That did not make me feel at all hopeful about Texas. I live basically on the line between Harris County and Montgomery county and it’s like basically two different states. We pretty much avoid the Montgomery county area because mask compliance is low, the county judge is very pro-Trump, and it’s a red red red area. So if voting is up in that county vs. 2016 that’s not a good thing.
One of the most undersold and important ways (among many) in which Biden appears primed to avoid a shocking, Hillary Clinton-esque loss is favorability. A poll Wednesday affirmed it. The CNN poll showed Biden with a pretty sterling image rating: 55 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable. That plus-13 was notably far better than Trump, who was 16 points underwater (41 percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable).
The chart in the article is really interesting. His likability gap is really widening.
Post by susquehanna on Oct 29, 2020 13:40:32 GMT -5
So, Butler County, Pennsylvania (a historically red county) has announced that they will not begin to count their mail-in ballots until AFTER Election Day:
The head of Duval County FL’s vote-counting board has donated to Trump 12 times and has six Trump signs up at his home, despite rules barring him from doing so.
This is local to me. I have to say, I'm pleasantly surprised that the (few) comments on our local news story about this are all talking about how this judge is corrupt and should be removed.
On a related note (because on Twitter she responded to this story saying she was "on it"), are any of y'all familiar with Nikki Fried? She's awesome. She's the Florida Commissioner of Agriculture, and she's the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida. I don't think I've ever before known who the commissioner of agriculture was, but she has really done a great job of advocating for Democratic values and standing up to Desantis.
Nikki Fried is awesome. She laid a lot of groundwork VERY quickly last spring to sort out providing lunches for school kids when the pandemic started. Her work is credited with Florida’s quick decision to close all schools in March.
Essentially, the Supreme Court decision isn't really final, and I would expect it to be challenged and ruled in favor of not counting late ballots if the vote is close enough that the late votes matter.
Post by Velar Fricative on Oct 29, 2020 14:17:55 GMT -5
Also, I do cry easily but never really at political stuff. But every time I see a Biden ad I feel emotional. WTF. I guess Trump has really mentally drained me all these years.
I am getting sooooooo many texts and also getting added to random anti republican email lists that send like 8 emails a day.
I can't wait for it to stop.
I am too, but rarely for me. Most of them are for the person who had my number before me.
I'm extremely impressed with the local GOTV effort to/in the Somali community. It's a light day if I get 3 texts reminding him or her to go vote and how important this election is to the local Somali community.
Also, I do cry easily but never really at political stuff. But every time I see a Biden ad I feel emotional. WTF. I guess Trump has really mentally drained me all these years.
It is seriously food for my soul to hear him talk. I think we have just forgotten what it's like to have a president who is a good and compassionate person.
yea so many texts and phone calls from random numbers. I never answer the calls, but I've been replying to texts lately telling them I've already voted so they can take me off their list and not waste time with me. I don't even want to check how much I've donated so far from just the texts.
Also, I do cry easily but never really at political stuff. But every time I see a Biden ad I feel emotional. WTF. I guess Trump has really mentally drained me all these years.
It is seriously food for my soul to hear him talk. I think we have just forgotten what it's like to have a president who is a good and compassionate person.
I was listening to NPR this morning (for the first time in ages because I've been avoiding news like... the plague) and they were comparing Biden and Trump's speeches. My God. Listening to Biden speak was like having holy water poured over me or something. I'm not a religious person, but what a balm to listen to someone intelligent speak to a group of people with respect.
Post by discogranny on Oct 29, 2020 16:29:47 GMT -5
As a Texan, I am energized by Texas being considered a swing state, but my own Facebook feed had a well known local influencer spouting about Hunter Biden's sex tape and crack use and how she's "seen the tapes" and people are "being brainwashed." She's so close on that last part, but just not quite right.
Can't wait to see what these are about. Based on other things they've released I'm going to guess maybe love letters from Joe to Jill? Records of Joe's volunteering?
My sister somehow got her absentee ballot today! She promised me she'd open it up and get it done tonight and I've already reminded her to put it in a drop box, not mail it, and not to give it to anyone else to put in the box. I'm so close to feeling relieved about this.
Post by RoxMonster on Oct 29, 2020 18:58:56 GMT -5
I know it's just anecdotal, but I've been texting for Texas, and have had MANY positive conversations with people and some first-time voters who were so excited to vote for Biden and get all their friends to, as well. Fingers crossed.
MN appeals court rules today that mail in ballots must be received by 8pm Election Day, changing the previous rules they could be received up to a week later.
I am so pissed. Thank goodness I sent my ballot in super early and it’s already been received and accepted.
I saw someone wearing a mask yesterday that said “Trump 2020, fuck your feelings”. Lovely. I did take solace in the fact that he surely (hopefully?) didn’t buy this directly from Trump’s campaign so Trump didn’t actually make money off it. And at least they were wearing a mask.
I'd be tempted to kick them in the privates and say, "Trump 2020, fuck your healthcare."
I just saw a clip of Trump in Tampa saying that if Biden was elected we wouldn’t have Christmas...
Please tell me I am going crazy cakes...
His spiraling is giving me some hope, honestly. I know that he screams shit all day, every day- but it's like he's seeing the end coming and he's trying to get anything to stick and he knows he has nothing up his sleeve. So he's just shouting like mad trying to get anyone to care.