Most experts believe the turning point was around April 16th when Trump announced this was for the states to handle and a few decided to reopen too quickly.
Los Angeles County now has a million recorded cases. It has a population higher than most states, but it’s still sobering to read about how fast this is spreading in California. Some officials believe one in three people in LA may have been infected since the start of the pandemic until now.
i cannot wrap my brain around why this is still so, so bad in California. when everything hit the fan in NYC last spring, it was absolutely awful, but it was several weeks of horror and things have been relatively under control since.
how is it still like this in Calif.? is it just that people are burnt out?? there are still tons of restrictions there, right?? like, what else can be done?
i cannot wrap my brain around why this is still so, so bad in California. when everything hit the fan in NYC last spring, it was absolutely awful, but it was several weeks of horror and things have been relatively under control since.
how is it still like this in Calif.? is it just that people are burnt out?? there are still tons of restrictions there, right?? like, what else can be done?
It wasn’t several weeks of horror, it was several months. From March until early June, that’s when could take a little bit of a breath. Unfortunately respiratory viruses spread very easily, especially if there is asymptomatic spread, that is why covid is more tricky than usual in that respect. The only countries that got things under control essentially had military style lock downs where you couldn’t leave your house, which obviously would never work here. And even now some of those countries are seeing record numbers of cases (albeit much lower than here thankfully). It’s really sad.
I'm just wondering how much the Biden administration will be able to do to increase the numbers/rates on vaccination. I haven't looked too hard, but quick searches aren't really turning up solid info on what the real problem is. Is there enough vaccine out there that the US can access more quickly, and things will get better if distribution improves? Or is the limiting factor simply that there's not enough being made. And if it's the latter, how quickly can production be increased? I mean, these vaccines can't be made just anywhere.
I keep going back to Fauci saying in December or so that he expected the general population (i.e., healthy adults) could start getting vaccinated in April. However, based on what I'm seeing now, at least in Michigan, that's not going to happen.
i cannot wrap my brain around why this is still so, so bad in California. when everything hit the fan in NYC last spring, it was absolutely awful, but it was several weeks of horror and things have been relatively under control since.
how is it still like this in Calif.? is it just that people are burnt out?? there are still tons of restrictions there, right?? like, what else can be done?
It wasn’t several weeks of horror, it was several months. From March until early June, that’s when could take a little bit of a breath. Unfortunately respiratory viruses spread very easily, especially if there is asymptomatic spread, that is why covid is more tricky than usual in that respect. The only countries that got things under control essentially had military style lock downs where you couldn’t leave your house, which obviously would never work here. And even now some of those countries are seeing record numbers of cases (albeit much lower than here thankfully). It’s really sad.
Yup. I visited my mom on Memorial Day, and I only felt comfortable with that because she had recovered from being hospitalized with covid about a month prior. We were in a park with masks on and I was still petrified but she almost died so it was a risk I was willing to take (and I quickly thereafter also felt more comfortable with outdoor masked socialization anyway as more science came out). June was when I started to breathe a little (and also when NYC reopening slowly began).
I know pandemic fatigue is a big obstacle, but that’s not only relevant to LA. I know we don’t know for sure, but I would not be surprised at all if SoCal is one of the first areas here significantly impacted by the new variant.
Per this article, another new variant has been identified in LA County. I wonder if it is also more contagious and part of the huge surge there. This also says LA County has had 2.96 million cases so far. I feel like they just hit the 2 million mark, and already about to hit 3.
Per this article, another new variant has been identified in LA County. I wonder if it is also more contagious and part of the huge surge there. This also says LA County has had 2.96 million cases so far. I feel like they just hit the 2 million mark, and already about to hit 3.
i cannot wrap my brain around why this is still so, so bad in California. when everything hit the fan in NYC last spring, it was absolutely awful, but it was several weeks of horror and things have been relatively under control since.
how is it still like this in Calif.? is it just that people are burnt out?? there are still tons of restrictions there, right?? like, what else can be done?
It wasn’t several weeks of horror, it was several months. From March until early June, that’s when could take a little bit of a breath. Unfortunately respiratory viruses spread very easily, especially if there is asymptomatic spread, that is why covid is more tricky than usual in that respect. The only countries that got things under control essentially had military style lock downs where you couldn’t leave your house, which obviously would never work here. And even now some of those countries are seeing record numbers of cases (albeit much lower than here thankfully). It’s really sad.
my apologies on the time frames.
it just feels to me that it's been like this in Cali so much longer than it was in NYC.
It wasn’t several weeks of horror, it was several months. From March until early June, that’s when could take a little bit of a breath. Unfortunately respiratory viruses spread very easily, especially if there is asymptomatic spread, that is why covid is more tricky than usual in that respect. The only countries that got things under control essentially had military style lock downs where you couldn’t leave your house, which obviously would never work here. And even now some of those countries are seeing record numbers of cases (albeit much lower than here thankfully). It’s really sad.
Yup. I visited my mom on Memorial Day, and I only felt comfortable with that because she had recovered from being hospitalized with covid about a month prior. We were in a park with masks on and I was still petrified but she almost died so it was a risk I was willing to take (and I quickly thereafter also felt more comfortable with outdoor masked socialization anyway as more science came out). June was when I started to breathe a little (and also when NYC reopening slowly began).
I know pandemic fatigue is a big obstacle, but that’s not only relevant to LA. I know we don’t know for sure, but I would not be surprised at all if SoCal is one of the first areas here significantly impacted by the new variant.
Yep and I don't think we'll ever have an accurate assessment about how many people actually had covid and died from it March - June. Even the amount of testing June compared to now is almost double now, testing over 100,000 people a day, back in March seemed like we'd never be able to do that. I just know what I saw, person after person coming in to our urgent care area and we couldn't do anything for them except make sure their vitals weren't horrible and then send them home and call them to follow up. No testing, no formal contact tracing, etc. Dozens of people per day. There are so many cases unaccounted for. And early June is when it slowed down, we felt a shift and when I took a "vacation" and went to see my partner for the first time.
And yep new variant makes sense. Once the cat is out the bag, it's hard to contain. Out of curiosity, what is LA's public health infrastructure like? Testing, tracing, sending tests, home visits, public health commercials (in multiple languages) etc?
I'm just wondering how much the Biden administration will be able to do to increase the numbers/rates on vaccination. I haven't looked too hard, but quick searches aren't really turning up solid info on what the real problem is. Is there enough vaccine out there that the US can access more quickly, and things will get better if distribution improves? Or is the limiting factor simply that there's not enough being made. And if it's the latter, how quickly can production be increased? I mean, these vaccines can't be made just anywhere.
I keep going back to Fauci saying in December or so that he expected the general population (i.e., healthy adults) could start getting vaccinated in April. However, based on what I'm seeing now, at least in Michigan, that's not going to happen.
I’ve been wondering about this too. It feels like a lot of the issue is that we simply didn’t buy enough vaccine and I don’t really know how you fix that when manufacturers have already gone out and pre-sold what they can make to other countries.
But the biggest secondary issue seems to be a total mismanagement of shipping and just generally getting it out to states, so maybe that’s something the Biden administration will have a better handle on.
I am hopeful given his ambitious 100 million doses in 100 days that they have plans going in the background and are prepared to get more of the vaccine out there.
Post by wanderingback on Jan 18, 2021 9:34:48 GMT -5
Black Americans are getting vaccinated at lower rates.
Today I'm on a zoom panel with another Black doctor at a Black church to talk about my experience being in a trial and discuss the vaccine. I really hope it goes well. I completely understand vaccine hesitancy, but we're in a crisis. So hopefully we have a good discussion and people will feel more comfortable getting the vaccine after our panel. Last night I had a horrible thought, what if the other doctor is an anti-vaccinator lol, but I truly hope that is not the case because I won't be able to keep a straight face. Hopefully we're both on the same page!
It wasn’t several weeks of horror, it was several months. From March until early June, that’s when could take a little bit of a breath. Unfortunately respiratory viruses spread very easily, especially if there is asymptomatic spread, that is why covid is more tricky than usual in that respect. The only countries that got things under control essentially had military style lock downs where you couldn’t leave your house, which obviously would never work here. And even now some of those countries are seeing record numbers of cases (albeit much lower than here thankfully). It’s really sad.
my apologies on the time frames.
it just feels to me that it's been like this in Cali so much longer than it was in NYC.
Nope, seems to be following similar time frame based on the numbers. Mid Nov it seems like cases picked up in LA and now it's 2 months later. Things are possibly on the down swing, but we'll see over the next couple of weeks.
Numbers are hard to follow since testing was so poor in the spring, but early June is when the hospital where I worked stopped needing extra areas for people, our hospital team had doubled during the surge (ALL residents were working in-patient) and in June is when we went back to a normal team, etc. So almost 3 months.
The thing about SoCal is that, observationally, most people here were the strictest during the NYC surge in the spring.
Now, when our cases are several times higher than they’ve ever been and our icus have been at capacity for a month, people are over it.
3/6 of my neighborhood restaurants are defying the public health order and offering in person dining, including indoors - which is asinine but especially so when it’s 75 and sunny. Every day I see posts about which nail salons/hair salons/gym classes are open (all against public health orders). People are going to the mall for entertainment (somehow ok with our current public health restrictions). They’re going on vacations. @@@@@ elementary schools are largely open in my area (though usually hybrid), over 50% of my friends with a SAH parent have their toddler in daycare for socialization (and none of these centers mandate masks for 2+), and contact maskless sports are happening indoors and outdoors. @@@@@@
None of the above was the case back in the spring. People stayed home. I don’t think we are behaving worse than people anywhere else in the country, but I think our behaviors are completely disconnected from our case metrics... and that’s exactly how this spirals out of control, even with improved testing, treatment and prevention from the spring.
i cannot wrap my brain around why this is still so, so bad in California.
how is it still like this in Calif.? is it just that people are burnt out?? there are still tons of restrictions there, right?? like, what else can be done?
Part of the horror is that California has way fewer hospital beds per capita than most other states. They chose to focus on outpatient care over the past few decades and also some existing hospitals closed rather than rebuild to meet earthquake safety rules in the early 2000s. So there is simply less ICU and ER capacity for our population.
There are super strict rules in place (e.g. no gathering with other households whatsoever) but many many regular science-believing people are breaking them. Restaurants are supposed to be take-out only but there are secret facebook groups where you can find our which ones are breaking the rules and doing indoor dining. Hair salons are supposed to be closed but many are still operating with paper over the windows. There’s also hairdressers and manicurists who will come to your house.
Most of the COVID cases I know of happened in multigenerational, extended family situations. There are many immigrants from Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam and other parts of the world where people rely on extended family for financial support, @@childcare and eldercare. “Only interact with your nuclear household” doesn’t translate culturally for them. I think the rules should have been presented in a different way (“you can help with your grandmother’s care but wear a mask and don’t eat together”).
it just feels to me that it's been like this in Cali so much longer than it was in NYC.
Nope, seems to be following similar time frame based on the numbers. Mid Nov it seems like cases picked up in LA and now it's 2 months later. Things are possibly on the down swing, but we'll see over the next couple of weeks.
Numbers are hard to follow since testing was so poor in the spring, but early June is when the hospital where I worked stopped needing extra areas for people, our hospital team had doubled during the surge (ALL residents were working in-patient) and in June is when we went back to a normal team, etc. So almost 3 months.
WRT LA County, I agree that the timeline is similar to NYC in the Spring. We started seeing an uptick about two weeks after Halloween. While many public things were cancelled, there was a lot of "don't take Halloween away" sentiment and so celebrations became private. The houses in our neighborhood are about 6 feet apart and we could hear parties all night. then Thanksgiving hit and the winter holidays and more of the same. And numbers continued to rise. And we have had some of the most restrictive measures in the US since March, a good number of people seem to have given up. DH has had to go into his office this entire time and he's said traffic has definitely picked up. It's obvious people are no longer staying home like in the Spring.
We have noticed what appears to be a possible downturn, and I am hoping it isn't just some outlier numbers since a few testing sites, including our largest at Dodger Stadium, has been transformed to a vaccination site.
As far as testing and tracing goes, free county testing is now pretty hard to get an appointment for. DH had a bad cold in early December and was able to get an appointment same morning at a county site. Then he was exposed at work the first week in January and couldn't get an appointment at any county site the entire week. There are a ton of pay testing sites, so he went to one of those and we sent the form to insurance, but not everyone has the $200 to float the test fee until insurance reimburses you (or has private insurance for that matter). But they are still testing tens of thousands of people a day. Not sure how well contact tracing is going. There is an app, but it only notifies you if the person with the positive case that you have been around also has it enabled and your phones exchanged a "key" in passing. So I am guessing if you were exposed at work, you are likely notified, but if you were at a store or someplace like that probably not. The only public place I have been asked for my info for contact tracking purposes is the public (so county or city run) golf courses. There are also three different health departments in LA County so I am sure the logistics of coordinating that are challenging.
ETA: I also want to point out that LA is getting a lot of press, but we have about a third of the state's population and about a third of the state's cases. So we aren't really seeing a higher rate, just higher raw numbers which make sense based on population size.
Post by formerlyak on Jan 18, 2021 10:06:07 GMT -5
In related news, I work in a different county and my work county has opened up vaccine appointments a bit more than my home county making me eligible there, so I was able to get an appointment. I'm nervous because the email confirmation looks very generic - just name, date, location, time. No confirmation number or anything like that. But DH pointed out that some people don't have access to a computer and won't even have the email so things like a barcode and/or confirmation number may confuse things. And I did get the email immediately after signing up, so I guess ok. But then the news is talking about some lot of Moderna vaccines is being paused because of higher than expected side effects with this lot (less than 10 and all at the same site). I know my sign up said Moderna, but I didn't write down the lot number that was listed, so I don't know if mine is in that lot and if I will show up and be told there is no vaccine for me. I have a lot of anxiety (like a lot a lot - I get physically sick in the days leading up to it) about getting any kind of shot and am really nervous that I am going to get there ready to go and then they won't have the shot for me and I will have to do it over.
Post by Velar Fricative on Jan 18, 2021 10:10:28 GMT -5
That’s a really good point, tacom. In the spring, fear kept us home. We didn’t know as much about covid as we do now. This is not the case anymore, which is why the federal response is really so criminal - they had the opportunity to prevent so many cases, hospitalizations and deaths when people bought into staying home for the greater good, and they squandered it. There’s no going back to that no matter how many cases we see.
Per this article, another new variant has been identified in LA County. I wonder if it is also more contagious and part of the huge surge there. This also says LA County has had 2.96 million cases so far. I feel like they just hit the 2 million mark, and already about to hit 3.
Also in the spring people were exclusively working from home or being paid to stay home. There were heavy regulations on who could go to work. I am doing the same job I did last year. In spring I did it from home. Now I am back in the office. Same job. Same circumstances.
On ML there was a thread about if you had covid where did you get it. I would say 95% of responses were at work.
We really underestimate how forcing all of us back into work has lit the spread of covid on fire.
My parents and grandma were able to get their first dose yesterday in Florida. They heard through the grapevine that people were getting vaccinated without appointments and drove by the vaccines site. Very grateful.
I'm really looking forward to seeing them again. I'm not sure what that will look like, but this is a good step in the right direction.
I live in Los Angeles county. My neighbors across the street have been ravaged by Covid. They have continued to have large unmasked gatherings this whole time. The grandfather and father got Covid from a cousin who was exposed at work. They both died and the family has continued to have large unmasked gatherings and another family member is now hospitalized with Covid.
I see a lot of people here that don’t wear masks properly or wear a bandanna or gaiter instead of a proper mask. Both DH and I keep trying to wrap our heads around why it’s still spreading so quickly.
His place of work has been closed since March 16 and we have no hope of it opening any time soon.
Nope, seems to be following similar time frame based on the numbers. Mid Nov it seems like cases picked up in LA and now it's 2 months later. Things are possibly on the down swing, but we'll see over the next couple of weeks.
Numbers are hard to follow since testing was so poor in the spring, but early June is when the hospital where I worked stopped needing extra areas for people, our hospital team had doubled during the surge (ALL residents were working in-patient) and in June is when we went back to a normal team, etc. So almost 3 months.
And we aren’t out of the woods yet!
Oh yes, agree with this! Nowhere is "safe" and we need to do our best to keep minimizing the spread.
GMIL got her vaccine on Friday - she's in her 90s, had Covid in December (mild, thankfully), lives in a nursing home. They passed out papers explaining the vaccine to them while they were waiting and by the time they got to her she'd decided she didn't want the vaccine. Thankfully they took time to talk to her and she couldn't really vocalize *why* she'd decided this, so they talked to her about it, answered her questions, explained that the current policy meant if she didn't get the shot she'd be required to continue quarantining in her room indefinitely (which is like the worse thing ever in her opinion), and told her that mil had signed the form approving her getting it. So thankfully she did finally agree to it.
It makes me wonder how often that might be happening in nursing homes when they either can't or don't take the time to talk it through with the residents. From what I can tell they're really just now getting into nursing homes/long term care centers around here, so i haven't seen numbers for the area yet.
Post by wanderingback on Jan 18, 2021 12:19:16 GMT -5
WHO chief says "we're on the bring of a catastrophic moral failure" in regards to the covid vaccine.
39 million doses of vaccines have been administered in 49 higher income countries and just TWENTY-FIVE (yes 25, not 2500 or 25,000) doses have been administered in one lower income country.
So say you are a healthcare provider but not currently patient facing with no immediate plans to return to a patient facing position, high BMI but no other significant risks...would you get the vaccine now or let others go ahead of you?