It's not a perfect estimation, but I took the top 10 most vaccinated states per the NYT and compared their recent case, hospitalization and death rates per capita to the 10 least vaccinated states. I averaged each state's rate per capita for the final averages of each group.
So for the least vaccinated states, they have per capita:
3.5x more cases 4.5x more hospitalizations 7.5x more deaths
There are some anomalies, I think, that I wonder if immunity from infection does play a role. For example, North Dakota is in the least vaccinated group but their case, hospitalization and death rates are much lower than the rest in that group, and they were hit really badly in the late fall. Among the most vaccinated states, Washington and New Mexico were glaringly higher than the rest and I wonder if that's because they weren't hit too widespread early on (I know WA was the country's first hotspot, but it seemed pretty well-contained after a bit). They were #9 and #10, with New York as #11 (all at 58% fully vaccinated), so New York wasn't included in the calculation but their rates are currently lower than WA and NM. And then there's the case of Florida which is pretty middle of the pack as far as vaccination rates so it wasn't included in either group, but they're the biggest hotspot in the country. Maybe county-level data will be more helpful. So, a lot to chew on but interesting nonetheless.
I can’t figure out Florida. Miami-Dade is particularly perplexing. Highly vaccinated but also one of the worst spots in the state. Is there a vaccine resistant variant? High rate of elderly people? All the summer travel? It doesn’t quite make sense.
We’re seeing something similar happening in San Francisco. The vaccination rate is 76% and we’ve nevertheless been dealing with a mini-surge here (though not nearly as bad as Miami, which has a similar vaccination rate). I guess having 20% of people unvaccinated is still a pretty large number; we knew herd immunity would be an elusive goal but whatever the “number” is for vaccination, it’s probably much higher than 75%.
I’m just speculating but there’s also the possibility of seasonality at play. We saw this last year; the states getting hardest hit weren’t necessarily the ones with the most lax regulations. California got walloped despite being one of the most locked down states in the country. On the other side of the spectrum, the Dakotas got hit pretty late in the pandemic so they may just be on the other side of their earlier wave, with the Delta wave coming later.
Or there could be some other factor involved. There’s also the fact that the communities that were hit disproportionately last year are still less likely to be vaccinated. I wonder if there’s an equity component we’re missing when we just look at raw numbers.
Post by Velar Fricative on Aug 10, 2021 13:10:25 GMT -5
I'm also wondering if previous estimates about over 100 million Americans actually be infected as a result of undercounts and undertesting are accurate. Add the 170 million or so fully vaccinated people, factor in overlap between those who had covid and then got vaccinated, and even so...it doesn't seem like we're anywhere near close to this mythical herd immunity we're chasing. I've basically given up on the idea of herd immunity since experts are saying it will be endemic.
We’re seeing something similar happening in San Francisco. The vaccination rate is 76% and we’ve nevertheless been dealing with a mini-surge here (though not nearly as bad as Miami, which has a similar vaccination rate). I guess having 20% of people unvaccinated is still a pretty large number; we knew herd immunity would be an elusive goal but whatever the “number” is for vaccination, it’s probably much higher than 75%.
I’m just speculating but there’s also the possibility of seasonality at play. We saw this last year; the states getting hardest hit weren’t necessarily the ones with the most lax regulations. California got walloped despite being one of the most locked down states in the country. On the other side of the spectrum, the Dakotas got hit pretty late in the pandemic so they may just be on the other side of their earlier wave, with the Delta wave coming later.
Or there could be some other factor involved. There’s also the fact that the communities that were hit disproportionately last year are still less likely to be vaccinated. I wonder if there’s an equity component we’re missing when we just look at raw numbers.
I posted above an article from NPR regarding the Provincetown Delta outbreak during the week of the Fourth of July. The two articles linked here note that the referenced community affected by the outbreak had extremely high rates of full vaccination by the people who tested positive for the Delta mutation of Covid.
I thought about that as well, but hospitalizations and deaths are also going up — and that’s primarily being driven by infections among the unvaccinated. Like if case counts were going up in highly vaccinated states but hospitalizations remained relatively low, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. The vaccines still work against severe disease, and breakthrough cases (while I’d be the first to say are likely occurring at a higher rate than the 1-3% being reported) are still relatively uncommon.
ETA: The Washington Post article about Florida above mentions that hospitalizations are also outpacing its less vaccinated neighbors — not just case counts.
Is anyone else seeing more bare spots on grocery store shelves? I feel like this is ramping up again, and within the past week I've seen a FB friend in CO post about it as well, so I don't think it's just me.
It's not the same things it was last year, like paper/cleaning products and meat. It seems really random, like the one that stuck with me from this past weekend is sparkling water even though there were several other items that I can't recall now. I thought it might be staffing/stocking issues rather than not having the actual product, but I've been back to the store a couple of times and it does seem like they just don't have the things that would normally fill those spots on the shelves.
I'm going to guess it's supply chain issues, rather than people hoarding like they were last year. I know a lot of restaurants have been limiting their menus because they can't reliably get certain ingredients right now.
We went to Red Robin about 2 weeks ago, and the first thing the server said to us was, "We are completely out of chicken." I think they are still having the same supply issues.
My husband is military and the local spouse page (aka not the active duty themselves) are losing their minds over the vaccine being mandated for AD and the "government controlling them." Like as if the government doesn't tell them what to wear, where to live, when they're moving, where they can and can't vacation/go in their local area, not to mention every single vaccine the service member has already received. You're life is already controlled by the government this vaccine isn't the thing that's done it lol.
Post by chickadee77 on Aug 10, 2021 16:27:24 GMT -5
My H works in infrastructure (don't want to be too specific) and they're quoting over a year out right now. They just don't have raw material to do what they need to do.
My husband is military and the local spouse page (aka not the active duty themselves) are losing their minds over the vaccine being mandated for AD and the "government controlling them."
Last Edit: Aug 10, 2021 17:22:25 GMT -5 by pixy0stix
"Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies-"God damn it, you've got to be kind.”
I used to work in the service industry and there is no amount of money that would make me go back right now. Between the customers, exposure level, having to police mask wearing, lack of staff while also being super busy... It makes every day a really hard day. And even over market rate is only what $15-20? Not worth it. Plus these jobs don't have any type of sick leave so if you can't work you're not getting paid. I don't blame anyone for not taking them, although I do feel for small business owners. It's a tough industry.
I was listening to an episode of The Daily recently where they talked to both restaurant owners and ex-restaurant employees. The owners were basically all blaming the government/covid relief and people being lazy. The employees talked about how the time off + covid relief made them realize just how miserable their jobs were -- physically, mentally, emotionally and financially. The burns, the insanely hot kitchens, working 13-hour shifts on your feet in a job with no health insurance, the sexual harassment, the nasty customers, the low pay. One guy talked about how once he stopped working in a kitchen, his feet stopped hurting, his back stopped hurting. They had actual leisure time to exercise, spend time outside, etc. instead of working multiple jobs and being constantly exhausted just to get by and/or because their employers demanded it or else they'd get fired.
Basically, once they got a taste of actual quality of life -- like the kind that middle-class/UMC people regularly expect/strive for/get -- where they didn't have to scrape and scramble and do nothing but work and sleep, it totally changed their perspective about the calculus of those jobs/careers, some of them after being in that field for years and years. Once they weren't desperate, they weren't willing to go back to them. Which to me says that there are way bigger issues that just "offer people more money" won't solve.
Even among the owners/managers who seemed more sympathetic, I don't think there was one who talked about offering better working conditions beyond "more money," if they even talked about that.
ETA: Someone posted this today and I feel like this guy gets it more than most. Basically taking a stand against "the customer is always right" and putting a sign on the door that essentially said if you're going to be nasty, you're not welcome because they want a positive environment for their staff and for them to be treated decently by customers. This also ties in with the recent piece about how demanding American consumers are. www.goerie.com/story/news/local/2021/08/09/the-brewerie-in-erie-posted-this-sign-on-its-front-doors-be-kind-or-leave/5534341001/
Also, IME in low-pay and/or long-hour jobs (though not restaurants), feeling like you are valued, protected and not disposable can make a huge difference in terms of satisfaction and retention. Money makes a difference, but it also isn't everything to everyone.
Here's the link to the audio, the transcript is at the top of the page.
I’ve noticed supply issues. We did good burger takeout last week and they were out of American cheese, chicken, and onion rings, so we got a call to modify 66% of our order. I still do grocery pickup and have random stuff OOS every time—if I can even add it to the list. This week’s “no real acceptable substitute” items were corn dogs and impossible burgers. Last week’s were full-sheet paper towels and buttermilk. (Both of those are common OOS items for us. Luckily, we go through under 12 rolls of paper towels a year—just checked my receipts—and that should drop now that the grandmas aren’t staying with us in the pod. They love paper towels. I’ve trained the kids on using rags. Buttermilk is an issue, but I can fake it for cooking if needed and save what I can for the 6 yo to drink).
Any tips on training the husband? I went through one roll of paper towels when I was by myself for 6 months. He comes back and we are back to sooooo many.
I did this by making it super convenient to use cloths and inconvenient to use paper towels. So right next to the sink in a basket we keep a bunch of clean, dry cloths. If you want a paper towel, I only buy one roll at a time and it’s downstairs in the basement so you have to go down and get it.
I saw some posts at the end of last week talking about antibody testing and vaccines. Thought I would share my experience.
I got Pfizer, mRNA. Two doses. And signed up for a Leukemia and Lymphoma Society sponsored study to measure effectiveness in blood cancer patients. I did one blood draw that tested two antibodies. One was general antibodies, the other was for the spike protein. The general antibody test was negative, but the test for spike proteins was strongly positive. I dug into in and realized the general antibody test would find the antibodies from infection. But the antibodies to the spike protein were what the vaccine would produce. So my takeaway was a general antibody test wasn’t what was needed to test vaccine efficacy.
I’ll go relook at my results and edit with the actual all names rather than general and spike.
general: SARS-CoV-2 Ab, Nucleocapsid This negative result does not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection. Correlation with epidemiologic risk factors and other clinical and laboratory findings is recommended. Serologic results should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude recent SARS-CoV-2 infection.
spike: SARS-CoV-2 Semi-Quant Total Ab Antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) were detected.Studies are underway to measure the quantitative levels of specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies following vaccination. Such studies will provide valuable insights into the correlation between protection from vaccination and antibody levels.
Right - all of the vaccine trials plus studies like yours check for anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies. That way, they can draw conclusions about whether the vaccine is preventing asymptomatic infections (which would induce antibody formation to many viral proteins, including both N and S proteins). The disclaimer that a negative "general" test doesn't rule out infection is because you could have a negative antibody test for a couple of weeks after infection. Thanks for participating in the study!
Post by notsopicky on Aug 10, 2021 20:59:48 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind Abbott and DeSantis (just 2 examples) being absolute fuckheads re: vaccines and masks? Don't they realize they are killing/debilitating the very people that vote for them (and a slew of innocent people too)? How do they wrap their brains around that?
It keeps me awake at night, trying to understand. I realize that it's (most likely) an exercise in futility.
Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind Abbott and DeSantis (just 2 examples) being absolute fuckheads re: vaccines and masks? Don't they realize they are killing/debilitating the very people that vote for them (and a slew of innocent people too)? How do they wrap their brains around that?
It keeps me awake at night, trying to understand. I realize that it's (most likely) an exercise in futility.
I think they want covid to get worse and worse, they don’t want a resolution of covid on Biden’s term. They’re playing games for some fucked up political shit.
I posted local vaccine vs non-vaccinated numbers from our county showing that .003% of vaccinated folks end up hospitalized since January.
My cousin responded all sorts of nonsense about the government is just wanting to make money off of us, we cannot trust any numbers provided by the government, we have no idea long term effects, that people with good immune systems will beat Covid, and we are poisoning our bodies with vaccines.
It was an insight to a whole lot of nonsense that I normally don’t see. I know I shouldn’t argue but it was too hard not to!
Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind Abbott and DeSantis (just 2 examples) being absolute fuckheads re: vaccines and masks? Don't they realize they are killing/debilitating the very people that vote for them (and a slew of innocent people too)? How do they wrap their brains around that?
It keeps me awake at night, trying to understand. I realize that it's (most likely) an exercise in futility.
My own theories:
1) All surges have eventually plateaued and then gone away and they may be hedging their bets on the same, especially with Americans’ terrible collective memories.
2) Related to #1 - as long as Delta isn’t that much more severe, it being more contagious means more people will get infected and therefore they’ll have post-infection immunity, keeping cases low for a while.
The problem with their thinking, if this is indeed their thinking, is 1) Delta didn’t exist last year so hedging their bets on a quick surge and then disappearance seems risky, and 2) hospitals are overwhelmed. When hospitals get overwhelmed, a shutdown becomes increasingly necessary, and no one wants a shutdown.
I don’t think people like DeSantis are capable of deep thought so this is just about politics with them. Banning mask mandates plays well with a certain crowd because “freedom!!”. A logical Governor, who doesn’t want to enact mandates, would at least say “I will leave it up to local leadership” because it takes the burden off of them but still allows for decisions to be made that benefit the community. DeSantis and Abbott doubling and tripling down on their stances plays well with the Trump/QAnon/conspiracy base who think this is all about controlling the people.
I think DeSantis and Abbott are just used to getting their way, don't want to give in, and have zero empathy. They are also both up for re-election next year and are pandering to their base. I don't think there is any long game though...they just don't want to be told what to do.
I saw some posts at the end of last week talking about antibody testing and vaccines. Thought I would share my experience.
I got Pfizer, mRNA. Two doses. And signed up for a Leukemia and Lymphoma Society sponsored study to measure effectiveness in blood cancer patients. I did one blood draw that tested two antibodies. One was general antibodies, the other was for the spike protein. The general antibody test was negative, but the test for spike proteins was strongly positive. I dug into in and realized the general antibody test would find the antibodies from infection. But the antibodies to the spike protein were what the vaccine would produce. So my takeaway was a general antibody test wasn’t what was needed to test vaccine efficacy.
I’ll go relook at my results and edit with the actual all names rather than general and spike.
general: SARS-CoV-2 Ab, Nucleocapsid This negative result does not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection. Correlation with epidemiologic risk factors and other clinical and laboratory findings is recommended. Serologic results should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude recent SARS-CoV-2 infection.
spike: SARS-CoV-2 Semi-Quant Total Ab Antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) were detected.Studies are underway to measure the quantitative levels of specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies following vaccination. Such studies will provide valuable insights into the correlation between protection from vaccination and antibody levels.
Right - all of the vaccine trials plus studies like yours check for anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies. That way, they can draw conclusions about whether the vaccine is preventing asymptomatic infections (which would induce antibody formation to many viral proteins, including both N and S proteins). The disclaimer that a negative "general" test doesn't rule out infection is because you could have a negative antibody test for a couple of weeks after infection. Thanks for participating in the study!
I had posted all of this because there was seeming to be talk and assumptions that the antibody test, say with the Red Cross, would give information about vaccine efficacy. And while I don’t know which test the Red Cross uses, I’m guess the “general” one since they started it before vaccines availability. I don’t want people thinking they don’t have vaccine efficacy if they give blood and it comes back negative.
I was skimming the end of last weeks thread though, so I might have misinterpreted.
Pete Muntean @petemuntean JUST IN: Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines will NOT REQUIRE employees to get vaccinated, breaking with United Airlines' mandate that workers get vaccinated by October 25th or face getting fired.
Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind Abbott and DeSantis (just 2 examples) being absolute fuckheads re: vaccines and masks? Don't they realize they are killing/debilitating the very people that vote for them (and a slew of innocent people too)? How do they wrap their brains around that?
It keeps me awake at night, trying to understand. I realize that it's (most likely) an exercise in futility.
My own theories:
1) All surges have eventually plateaued and then gone away and they may be hedging their bets on the same, especially with Americans’ terrible collective memories.
2) Related to #1 - as long as Delta isn’t that much more severe, it being more contagious means more people will get infected and therefore they’ll have post-infection immunity, keeping cases low for a while.
The problem with their thinking, if this is indeed their thinking, is 1) Delta didn’t exist last year so hedging their bets on a quick surge and then disappearance seems risky, and 2) hospitals are overwhelmed. When hospitals get overwhelmed, a shutdown becomes increasingly necessary, and no one wants a shutdown.
DeSantis has essentially said that he plans to let Covid run its course so that we end up with natural herd immunity. Which is... problematic. On a lot of levels.
1) All surges have eventually plateaued and then gone away and they may be hedging their bets on the same, especially with Americans’ terrible collective memories.
2) Related to #1 - as long as Delta isn’t that much more severe, it being more contagious means more people will get infected and therefore they’ll have post-infection immunity, keeping cases low for a while.
The problem with their thinking, if this is indeed their thinking, is 1) Delta didn’t exist last year so hedging their bets on a quick surge and then disappearance seems risky, and 2) hospitals are overwhelmed. When hospitals get overwhelmed, a shutdown becomes increasingly necessary, and no one wants a shutdown.
DeSantis has essentially said that he plans to let Covid run its course so that we end up with natural herd immunity. Which is... problematic. On a lot of levels.
WTF. No one actually knows if that will ever happen.
I need to stay off FaceBook because there is too much stupid. The latest I just read posted by someone I went to high school with is that we should not only not get the vaccine, but we should not test because the swab has carcinogens on it because the government wants to give us all cancer. I can’t make this stuff up!
I think DeSantis and Abbott are just used to getting their way, don't want to give in, and have zero empathy. They are also both up for re-election next year and are pandering to their base. I don't think there is any long game though...they just don't want to be told what to do.
Same for Reynolds in Iowa. It is all about the election.
Post by Velar Fricative on Aug 11, 2021 8:41:53 GMT -5
ETA: Should have tagged it as @@@ because it took place at a school board meeting, but given how viral it has gone the consequences go away beyond schools.
Have you guys seen this viral video? The guy is batshit but it appears the video has gone even more viral than Plandemic. So this is what we are grappling with. None of my friends have shared it but I've seen it in local Facebook groups.
ETA: Should have tagged it as @@@ because it took place at a school board meeting, but given how viral it has gone the consequences go away beyond schools.
Have you guys seen this viral video? The guy is batshit but it appears the video has gone even more viral than Plandemic. So this is what we are grappling with. None of my friends have shared it but I've seen it in local Facebook groups.
I saw that, maybe Monday? I admit contributing to its view number because I wanted to watch the whole thing.
my friend and I have been talking about this shit a lot lately, generally around cancer health shit. But… these people get up and string together big sciency words that are, in real science term, bunk. But it sounds so believable. I found a link that listed the studies on the flash drive he references. The first two I clicked on have been retracted.
I stumbled on another video debunking the “doctor” my friend and I were talking about. And it spawned a discussion of how there need to be more of that. Meeting people where they are, and not just beating them over the head to go read the actual science. What started this whole discussion was me telling a woo person I get my research from pubmed and the NCI. (Said woo person was telling someone with thyroid cancer not to have surgery to remove the thyroid, just eat vegan, do you own research about Dr Woo-Somebody). But this is something a think about a lot. Meeting people where they are (I.e., you tube video “research”).