Florida's climate exodus has begun

[msmerymac]

Excerpt from The Great Displacement: Climate Change and the Next American Migration

I think it's good that this touches on the class issues that come with this too:

Hundreds of people like the Faasts left the Keys of their own volition in the years after Irma, deciding one way or another that the risks of staying there outweighed the benefits. But perhaps the more turbulent phenomenon after the storm was the involuntary displacement caused by the shortage of affordable housing on the islands. The storm destroyed not only the massive mobile home parks on islands like Big Pine, but also hundreds of so-called downstairs enclosures, small apartment-style units that sat beneath elevated homes.



It also wiped out dozens if not hundreds of liveaboard boats and older apartment complexes in island cities like Marathon. These trailer parks and apartment complexes had been havens for resort waiters, boat buffers, and bartenders, allowing them to get a foothold in an archipelago that had long ago become unaffordable for anyone who wasn't rich. Now all that housing was gone, and FEMA's 50% rule — which prohibits improvements to structures that cost more than 50% of its market value — prohibited most trailers and downstairs enclosures from being rebuilt.



Many of those who had been lucky enough to own small homes or campers hadn't been able to afford insurance, which meant they missed out on the payouts that went to wealthy homeowners and part-time vacationers. To make matters worse, the government of the Keys couldn't build enough new homes to fill the gap created by the storm: the state had long ago imposed a de facto cap on the number of building permits Monroe county — which encompasses the islands — could issue, an attempt to make sure the population did not grow too large to evacuate the islands in a single day. Thus it was impossible for most residents either to rebuild their old homes or to buy new ones.



Some of those who lost their homes were able to crash with friends and family, and others got by living in tents or trailers, but others resorted to a forest homeless encampment. The lack of housing made the storm survivors feel as though they were stuck in a permanent limbo: life on the islands became a game of musical chairs, in which only the highest bidders could end up with a seat.

www.businessinsider.com/florida-residents-moving-leaving-climate-change-refugees-hurricanes-flood-2023-2

[bookqueen15]

Interesting. We moved out of Florida last year (after living there for 30 years, since childhood) and climate change was a big reason we decided to relocate, along with many other reasons. While we did not live in area recently impacted by hurricanes, we lived in a very flood prone area that could easily be devastated by a direct hit and will be impacted by sea level rise, along with the college I worked at. We wanted to live somewhere (and I wanted to work someplace) that will hopefully be more environmentally stable, at least for the next 20-30 years. And Florida was not it. Not to mention all of Florida's other issues.

[chickadee77]

Anecdote:
We just left FL last year after having lived there for ten years. It was mostly political, honestly, and while our house sustained minor damage from Irma, we were far enough inland that we'd be "safe" for years, yet. So while climate change wasn't a driving factor in our move, it is a huge factor in where we end up (though, honestly, it was a factor in why we didn't live on the water in FL, too).

I know quite a few younger people that are leaving/trying to leave FL post-Ian. Between the weather and the politics, they're DONE.

[chickadee77]

Maybe because it's so close, but this is so, so true. We lived in a "blue-collar" area and the wealthy (of which there were a LOT in select parts of our county) just never gave another thought to the idea that maybe, maybe! alienating and isolating the people that do all of your work is not a great plan . . .

"Maconaughey told me with distaste that in several places along Marathon's beachfront, developers have built single large mansions on lots that once contained three or four small homes each.

The lack of affordable housing in turn created a labor shortage: fire and police departments couldn't find enough officers to fill their shifts, boat maintenance companies struggled to locate buffers and repairmen, and many hotels went shorthanded through the on-season rush. When employers exhausted their hiring options on the islands, Maconaughey said, they started to hire workers from the mainland towns of Homestead and Florida City, who take a two-hour bus ride in either direction to work for minimum wage."

One of the biggest assholes in the area where we lived was known for bussing in employees from poorer areas.

[minzy]

Somewhat tangentially related Wapo article about how adaptation to temperature-related climate deaths will disproportionally favor the rich global north and disproportionally disfavor areas already possessing fewer resources…
apple.news/A8pgy22fqRWaODZbryrnh3g

[tamarindy]

Interesting article. If you’ve ever been to the Keys (one of my favorite places on the planet) you know how unique they are, and it’s also pretty easy to see that it’s an untenable lifestyle for most “average” people. Not much land in basically paradise = not much inventory = the most affluent will always come out ahead. Add in the almost impossible task of insuring a home there and strengthening storms, and a migration is bound to happen.

I have to kind of laugh at the article’s title, since even the friends of the couple interviews here (who sound pretty upper class themselves) all left the Keys for other Florida cities on the mainland. Currently, there is certainly no exodus up here in CFL, only urban sprawl and more and more people moving from other states every day.



ETA - The labor shortage has been real down there for decades. I’ve been visiting since the 90s and I don’t remember a time when people didn’t bus down to work from Homestead or Miami. It’s a huge problem and very sad.

[mcppalmbeach]

Feb 22, 2023 6:23:45 GMT -5 tamarindy said:

Interesting article. If you’ve ever been to the Keys (one of my favorite places on the planet) you know how unique they are, and it’s also pretty easy to see that it’s an untenable lifestyle for most “average” people. Not much land in basically paradise = not much inventory = the most affluent will always come out ahead. Add in the almost impossible task of insuring a home there and strengthening storms, and a migration is bound to happen.

I have to kind of laugh at the article’s title, since even the friends of the couple interviews here (who sound pretty upper class themselves) all left the Keys for other Florida cities on the mainland. Currently, there is certainly no exodus up here in CFL, only urban sprawl and more and more people moving from other states every day.



ETA - The labor shortage has been real down there for decades. I’ve been visiting since the 90s and I don’t remember a time when people didn’t bus down to work from Homestead or Miami. It’s a huge problem and very sad.

As a Floridian living in a once “smallish” coastal town, I definitely laughed at the title. We are having rapid, unprecedented and absolutely terrifying growth. Maybe the Keys will be the metaphorical “canaries,” but right now it doesn’t seem that way.

[Velar Fricative]

Anecdote - the people migrating TO Florida from up here are all very likely to not believe or care about climate change. I’m not surprised that Floridians who’ve seen and experienced changes are more concerned about it. But it’s not like FL is losing people as a result (on the contrary!). As mentioned above, they likely aren’t leaving FL, just moving further away from the coasts in the booming central areas.

I mean, DeSantis visited a restaurant less than a mile from my house on Monday and referred to this part of NYC as “Florida North” - there were a lot of supporters there who said they can’t wait to move to the “free” state of Florida. You can’t tell me those people care about climate change lol. And they’re taking their NYC money and pensions with them, which I know is a big reason more and more Floridians are feeling squeezed housing-wise too.

[tamarindy]

Feb 22, 2023 8:34:11 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Anecdote - the people migrating TO Florida from up here are all very likely to not believe or care about climate change. I’m not surprised that Floridians who’ve seen and experienced changes are more concerned about it. But it’s not like FL is losing people as a result (on the contrary!). As mentioned above, they likely aren’t leaving FL, just moving further away from the coasts in the booming central areas.

I mean, DeSantis visited a restaurant less than a mile from my house on Monday and referred to this part of NYC as “Florida North” - there were a lot of supporters there who said they can’t wait to move to the “free” state of Florida. You can’t tell me those people care about climate change lol. And they’re taking their NYC money and pensions with them, which I know is a big reason more and more Floridians are feeling squeezed housing-wise too.

   I'm certainly not implying that the people moving here care about climate change or the environment at all, really.  They are burning and clearing the land in this area for their McMansions every day, so obviously they DGAF. 

   What I am saying is that if this author really wants to assert there is any kind of exodus from FL on the horizon, he should probably find more evidence than a couple leaving the Keys for mainland after years of living there because they finally got tired of storms. 

[MixedBerryJam]

Not the point of the article I’m sure (I haven’t read it yet and actually this may have been mentioned by another poster and not mentioned in the article) but I’m a bit head tilty at people raising houses onto stilts, and then using the space underneath for … housing? Safe housing for me but not for thee? Can a rental unit in a raised home in a flood prone area be insured? (Asked rhetorically)

[pixy0stix]

I keep deleting my post because I think several people have missed the point? Climate flight has started all over the country. I've posted a few articles that touch on other places that are being effected where people are having to sell their homes, or outright abandoning them. It has nothing to do with inland areas, or even most of the states where it's happening. (FL is a *massive* state.)

[tamarindy]

Feb 22, 2023 11:12:54 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

I keep deleting my post because I think several people have missed the point? Climate flight has started all over the country. I've posted a few articles that touch on other places that are being effected where people are having to sell their homes, or outright abandoning them. It has nothing to do with inland areas, or even most of the states where it's happening. (FL is a *massive* state.)

  I totally agree with this; areas like the FL Keys will definitely see an exodus far before the state as a whole.  Which I why I pointed out that the title here is pretty misleading.  
  
  Believe me, I would love to see an exodus of some/any sort, rather than what we are seeing now.  

[Scout'sHonor]

NPR interviewed the author yesterday: www.npr.org/2023/02/21/1158580464/climate-change-has-forced-thousands-to-relocate-in-the-u-s

[pixy0stix]

Feb 22, 2023 11:32:12 GMT -5 tamarindy said:

Feb 22, 2023 11:12:54 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

I keep deleting my post because I think several people have missed the point? Climate flight has started all over the country. I've posted a few articles that touch on other places that are being effected where people are having to sell their homes, or outright abandoning them. It has nothing to do with inland areas, or even most of the states where it's happening. (FL is a *massive* state.)

  I totally agree with this; areas like the FL Keys will definitely see an exodus far before the state as a whole.  Which I why I pointed out that the title here is pretty misleading.  
  
  Believe me, I would love to see an exodus of some/any sort, rather than what we are seeing now.  

How is it misleading when FL has started it's exodus? It's slow, it's relatively small, but it's started. ETA: The NPR interview says it pretty well. It's a very slow/chaotic process where people first move not very far away, and then completely move as things progress or they get used to the idea that they can't stay where "home" was.

[tamarindy]

Feb 22, 2023 11:37:31 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Feb 22, 2023 11:32:12 GMT -5 tamarindy said:

  I totally agree with this; areas like the FL Keys will definitely see an exodus far before the state as a whole.  Which I why I pointed out that the title here is pretty misleading.  
  
  Believe me, I would love to see an exodus of some/any sort, rather than what we are seeing now.  

How is it misleading when FL has started it's exodus? It's slow, it's relatively small, but it's started.

   Ok.      

[Vespasia]

If anyone wants a fictionalized account of Florida's eventual fall, The Light Pirate was fantastic. I actually just finished it last night and as someone who used to live there (and gtfo as soon as I could) it feels very realistic.

I have other thoughts to share but for now I will just sit next to Pixy.

[msmerymac]

Feb 22, 2023 11:32:12 GMT -5 tamarindy said:

Feb 22, 2023 11:12:54 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

I keep deleting my post because I think several people have missed the point? Climate flight has started all over the country. I've posted a few articles that touch on other places that are being effected where people are having to sell their homes, or outright abandoning them. It has nothing to do with inland areas, or even most of the states where it's happening. (FL is a *massive* state.)

  I totally agree with this; areas like the FL Keys will definitely see an exodus far before the state as a whole.  Which I why I pointed out that the title here is pretty misleading.  
  
  Believe me, I would love to see an exodus of some/any sort, rather than what we are seeing now.  

I don't know that it's misleading - it's an excerpt from a book that happens to deal with the Florida Keys, but I'm interested to listen to the NPR interview and read the book to see what else the author says about other coastal areas. And of course, it will be a massive issue for island nations, the global south, and really many places.

[tamarindy]

Feb 22, 2023 12:47:05 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Feb 22, 2023 11:32:12 GMT -5 tamarindy said:

  I totally agree with this; areas like the FL Keys will definitely see an exodus far before the state as a whole.  Which I why I pointed out that the title here is pretty misleading.  
  
  Believe me, I would love to see an exodus of some/any sort, rather than what we are seeing now.  

I don't know that it's misleading - it's an excerpt from a book that happens to deal with the Florida Keys, but I'm interested to listen to the NPR interview and read the book to see what else the author says about other coastal areas. And of course, it will be a massive issue for island nations, the global south, and really many places.

    I want to be super clear that not only do I believe that climate change has and will continue to have devastating impacts on the state (and many other portions of the country, obviously), but also that a migration of sorts from coastal areas will have to happen at some point by necessity.  I understand and fully believe that.  Climate issues and the future of this planet are a big reason we chose not to have kids.

    As far as this piece and the author using the Florida Keys as the example, these issues (both environmental and economic) aren't at all new.  Storms have indeed strengthened and there have been particularly devastating effects with the most recent ones, yes.  People with enough money who want to put up with it will stay as long as they can, everyone else will eventually be pushed out.  Hell, I've loved KW since I was 10 years old but am surprised it is still above water (for now).

    I think it is just wild to read the implication that any kind of "exodus" is underway in this state when it grows by leaps and bounds daily.  As I have said many times here, I wish it were true.

  
  

[pixy0stix]

Feb 22, 2023 13:07:17 GMT -5 tamarindy said:

Feb 22, 2023 12:47:05 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

I don't know that it's misleading - it's an excerpt from a book that happens to deal with the Florida Keys, but I'm interested to listen to the NPR interview and read the book to see what else the author says about other coastal areas. And of course, it will be a massive issue for island nations, the global south, and really many places.

    I want to be super clear that not only do I believe that climate change has and will continue to have devastating impacts on the state (and many other portions of the country, obviously), but also that a migration of sorts from coastal areas will have to happen at some point by necessity.  I understand and fully believe that.  Climate issues and the future of this planet are a big reason we chose not to have kids.

    As far as this piece and the author using the Florida Keys as the example, these issues (both environmental and economic) aren't at all new.  Storms have indeed strengthened and there have been particularly devastating effects with the most recent ones, yes.  People with enough money who want to put up with it will stay as long as they can, everyone else will eventually be pushed out.  Hell, I've loved KW since I was 10 years old but am surprised it is still above water (for now).

    I think it is just wild to read the implication that any kind of "exodus" is underway in this state when it grows by leaps and bounds daily.  As I have said many times here, I wish it were true.

Ok, but you're conflating two separate things:

1. FL continues to grow as people move into the state. This is true. FL has been in the top of the states for population growth for the last 5 years.

2. At the same time, the coastal regions in FL are showing that people are moving away from areas that have been heavily damaged or are starting to show signs of catastrophic flooding. People are making the choice to not rebuild.

Both are happening at the same time, so it *feels* like a weird thing to say that there is an exodus happening when you can look out your window and see growth. However, the growth is part of the exodus as people move around. This is why we (general) can't rely on anecdotes, as we (general) don't usually see the whole picture.

[tamarindy]

Feb 22, 2023 13:16:47 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Feb 22, 2023 13:07:17 GMT -5 tamarindy said:

    I want to be super clear that not only do I believe that climate change has and will continue to have devastating impacts on the state (and many other portions of the country, obviously), but also that a migration of sorts from coastal areas will have to happen at some point by necessity.  I understand and fully believe that.  Climate issues and the future of this planet are a big reason we chose not to have kids.

    As far as this piece and the author using the Florida Keys as the example, these issues (both environmental and economic) aren't at all new.  Storms have indeed strengthened and there have been particularly devastating effects with the most recent ones, yes.  People with enough money who want to put up with it will stay as long as they can, everyone else will eventually be pushed out.  Hell, I've loved KW since I was 10 years old but am surprised it is still above water (for now).

    I think it is just wild to read the implication that any kind of "exodus" is underway in this state when it grows by leaps and bounds daily.  As I have said many times here, I wish it were true.

Ok, but you're conflating two separate things:

1. FL continues to grow as people move into the state. This is true. FL has been in the top of the states for population growth for the last 5 years.

2. At the same time, the coastal regions in FL are showing that people are moving away from areas that have been heavily damaged or are starting to show signs of catastrophic flooding. People are making the choice to not rebuild.

Both are happening at the same time, so it *feels* like a weird thing to say that there is an exodus happening when you can look out your window and see growth. However, the growth is part of the exodus as people move around. This is why we (general) can't rely on anecdotes, as we (general) don't usually see the whole picture.

     I do see what you're saying.  I think it is just the headline, or maybe it is just semantics for my perspective.  An "exodus" from the small region of the Keys and some (not all) coastal regions doesn't equal "Florida" to me.  But admittedly I'm bitter about the influx of idiots. 

    ETA - Also I think that residents leaving the Keys due to hurricane damage has been a thing for so long that it barely registers to me as a thing anymore.  Which is sad in and of itself.

[pixy0stix]

Here's another article talking specifically about FL and Hurricane Ian, and how certain segments are choosing to just not return - www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-displaced-millions-from-homes-extreme-weather-natural-disaster/

[Vespasia]

Bumping this with the news that Ft. Lauderdale International Airport is shutdown through tomorrow after a "1-in-1,000-year rainfall event." There is significant flooding throughout the region. 


www.cnn.com/2023/04/12/weather/florida-flash-flood-fort-lauderdale/index.html

[basilosaurus]

Apr 13, 2023 12:21:19 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

Bumping this with the news that Ft. Lauderdale International Airport is shutdown through tomorrow after a "1-in-1,000-year rainfall event." There is significant flooding throughout the region. 


www.cnn.com/2023/04/12/weather/florida-flash-flood-fort-lauderdale/index.html

My hometown, so I'm seeing video from friends. 25in. I've never seen anything like it there not related to storm surge.

[msmerymac]

Reviving this to note that Jake Bittle, author of The Great Displacement, was interviewed on the FiveThirtyEight podcast last week: fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-climate-change-will-reshape-where-americans-live/