Does Allred stand a chance running against Ted Cruz?

[4speedy]

I received a text announcing Allred’s running against Ted Cruz. His background sounds impressive and I’m thinking about sending a donation so his first numbers look good. But I don’t want to throw money at him if it looks like he doesn’t have a chance in TX. I’d rather send money to where it could make a difference. Anyone know about this guy and want to share thoughts?

[TR]

He's the Rep for my district. I really like him. I always WANT to feel optimistic about these "popular with Dems" candidates here and it's easy to get caught up in the excitement in my bubble, but overall it's hard to see how he (or any of them) stands a chance statewide.

[abs]

I have honestly not heard much about him. I also took a big news break though so there’s that.

I don’t know. Everyone likes to publicly hate Cruz but he keeps getting re-elected. It would be nice to think that could change.

[Michelle]

I confess i first heard of him when i got his campaign text yesterday. So far, I'm for anyone-but-Cruz, but I need to research him to see what kind of momentum he might have.

[Velar Fricative]

May 3, 2023 12:50:45 GMT -5 abs said:

I have honestly not heard much about him. I also took a big news break though so there’s that.

I don’t know. Everyone likes to publicly hate Cruz but he keeps getting re-elected. It would be nice to think that could change.

This is the first thing I thought too. Whatever his chances, I wish Allred and Ds in Texas allllllllll the luck. 

[bronxgirl]

As an aside, does anyone remember Senator deSenator? Husband of former poster who thought he could take on Ted Cruise? Good times. I wonder if he’ll try again.

[MixedBerryJam]

May 4, 2023 17:18:50 GMT -5 bronxgirl said:

As an aside, does anyone remember Senator deSenator? Husband of former poster who thought he could take on Ted Cruise? Good times. I wonder if he’ll try again.

i vaguely remember. Was that poster a reg? I seem to recall going down in flames but I don’t recall why

[bronxgirl]

May 5, 2023 10:01:36 GMT -5 MixedBerryJam said:

May 4, 2023 17:18:50 GMT -5 bronxgirl said:

As an aside, does anyone remember Senator deSenator? Husband of former poster who thought he could take on Ted Cruise? Good times. I wonder if he’ll try again.

i vaguely remember. Was that poster a reg? I seem to recall going down in flames but I don’t recall why

She was, but I forget her name. I think she was run off the board slightly before her husband's campaign was discovered.

[Bad Dingo]

I hope he has a chance, I thought his campaign video was very well done.

[thejen626]

May 5, 2023 10:21:35 GMT -5 bronxgirl said:

May 5, 2023 10:01:36 GMT -5 MixedBerryJam said:

i vaguely remember. Was that poster a reg? I seem to recall going down in flames but I don’t recall why

She was, but I forget her name. I think she was run off the board slightly before her husband's campaign was discovered.

She posted here about his campaign and then something happened a few months later… I can’t remember what it was

[charlie]

May 4, 2023 17:18:50 GMT -5 bronxgirl said:

As an aside, does anyone remember Senator deSenator? Husband of former poster who thought he could take on Ted Cruise? Good times. I wonder if he’ll try again.

mx27

[neverfstop]

538 says texas may be the best pick-up option for a Dem sentate seat


So why might Texas turn out to be a better bet for Democrats than Florida? Over the last few election cycles, Florida has taken a hard right turn as Texas has been getting bluer. In the 2012 presidential race, Texas was 17 points redder than Florida. In the 2020 presidential race, it was only 3 points redder. And in 2022, Republicans won statewide elections in Florida by an average of 19 points; in Texas, they won them by an average of 13 points. That’s still pretty red, but amid a sea of bad options, it’s possible that Texas will be Democrats’ most promising (or, at a minimum, least hopeless) pickup opportunity in the Senate next year.

And in Allred, they now have a serious candidate. The former NFL player was first elected to Congress in 2018, when he defeated an 11-term incumbent by 7 points in a historically Republican district in the Dallas suburbs. He won reelection by 6 points in 2020 before redistricting placed him in a new, dark-blue district for 2022. (That district, the 32nd, will now be an open seat in 2024.)

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Allred still has a tough road ahead of him. First, he needs to win the Democratic primary, which it doesn’t look like he’ll have to himself; state Sen. Roland Gutierrez, who represents Uvalde and has become a prominent gun-control advocate in the wake of the school shooting there, is expected to run as well. And then he needs to figure out how to win a general election in a state that hasn’t elected a single Democrat to statewide office in the past 28 years. In the end, maybe Allred will be the next O’Rourke after all: a highly touted Democratic candidate who puts up a fight, but ultimately falls short.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-colin-allred-have-what-it-takes-to-beat-ted-cruz-in-2024/