At an instinct level, who do you think will win in 2024?

[k3am]

pixy0stix, largely because the D's have taken a unified stance that Biden is their candidate. So the only people willing to openly run and risk the wrath of the party are the whackadoodles. Which is maybe a good strategy in general, but I'm not so sure it is here.

So you've got one party that refuses to put out any other viable candidates and will support Biden regardless and one party that's cannibalizing itself.

My vote doesn't really matter based on where I live, so I'm curious to see what third party candidates come up.

[basilosaurus]

I'm questioning whether we live in enclaves of intelligent people so much we can't see a drumpf run. If course I don't want it, and because I want to like my fellow humans I err on trusting the strange. But 2016 and 2020 happened.

[stinkyfeet]

Aug 28, 2023 10:42:26 GMT -5 StrawberryBlondie said:

Highly dependent on who the R candidate is. I can see a theoretical R win but with the vast majority of the current clown car, my money would be on Biden.

If it's Biden v Trump 2.0, I definitely think Biden.

I hate to agree, but I think you are correct

[abs]

Even in my highly red area Trump seems to have like zero support. I bet he does in the more rural areas though. It will be interesting because they also hate Biden. I think if it’s Trump vs Biden then Biden wins but I wouldn’t put money on it. Biden vs anyone else? Probably anyone else.

[neverfstop]

Is this going to be our best shot ever at a "contested convention"? There's a decent chance that something happens to Biden or Trump between when the primary delegates start getting allocated and when they all vote at the convention. The news tonight was making a point that some of the GOP candidate may stay in longer & not drop out to pick up as many delegates as they can, gambling something significant will happen to trump during the primary season.

[sonrisa]

Aug 28, 2023 16:03:35 GMT -5 k3am said:

Aug 28, 2023 15:39:36 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

What does this mean? You think he's going to die?

Ideally, he realizes/admits that he is potentially not up for the demands of the job.

This is on every 2020 primary voter who thought then that he was the best bet. Of course he aged and of course he ran again.

We've known since Dec. of 2020 we'd be here.

Every sitting president who is primaried, goes on to lose the election, so a primary challenger isn't the answer. And even if he stepped down, he'd basically be handing the incumbent advantage over to Trump, since Trump's a beloved by many* former president. (yes, those many are awful, but they still exist and vote).

You can rail against reality or hope he makes it to December 2024 and work to get him elected in the interim. Honestly, this whole argument is a Republican talking point that has been trotted out again and again (starting with rumors years back that he'd step aside). 

Frankly, I think Trump has a damned good chance of winning.

[morecoffeeplease]

These responses make me feel better because trump is god around here. And if a family doesn’t like him they hate Biden (inflation) more than disliking trump.

[momof2ms]

I think Biden will win, but I think it will be low voter turnout, and I think no one will be excited, ha ha. I think possibly there will be some confusion, or may be too many conflicting issues to create much of a groundswell in any one direction.

[eddy]

Trumpers continue to be loud. But Trump isn't a brand new candidate this time. The country knows what he is about and knows how he governs. I just don't think he can pull in independents like he did in 2016. I also think he is going to be the GOP candidate. His specific base is all in. But he needs more than his base.

I think it will be Biden. It will come down again to states like Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.

Biden against another GOP candidate makes me more nervous.

[dulcemariamar]

I think the Republicans will win but I am not sure who will be their candidate.

But maybe my news are skewed because I am living outside the States and the Biden admin is not painted favorably.

I think economy/inflation is what going to get people out to vote. Even though I tell my family/friends in the States that it is rough in Europe too, they all think that Biden is behind it all.

[Nugget T. Brain, The OG]

I'm 50/50 on Biden and Trump. I actually think Trump has a decent chance at beating Biden, unfortunately.

If the R nom is DeSantis I think Biden will win.

[ESF]

I have no freaking clue. While it's always hard to predict things this far out, it's exceptionally hard this year.

Trump is facing 91 felony indictments. A trial could be held in one of those cases. Evidence could come out that could either win him sympathy or cause some fraction of people to splinter away.

Along with those felony indicments is a bunch of pre-trial release conditions. The conditions also impose various gag orders. I doubt we'll see him at any debate. The format presents such a risk to him - he can't control the questions or the other candidates, and he could be caught up in the momentum and say something that violates a court order and possibly get sent back to jail. He's walking a tightrope right now.

That all said, he and his base could find ways mobilize in truly frightening ways that causes chaos throughout the GOP primary and later during the election. The base is unhinged. I would not rule out bombs, assassination attempts, and other acts of violence.

Both Trump and Biden are old AF and could very well experience a a health event that is either disqualifying or has some meaningful impact on how they are perceived and their ability to actually run a campaign.

And this Supreme Court is wackadoodle.

[waverly]

I agree with ESF. We were so far off in 2016. If Trump is in play it will always be a wildcard. The poll is just the opinion of a very few number of people, so I don't think it is indicative of anything anymore broad than that.

[Gato]

I still think Biden was a good choice in 2020 and has been a good President. I will be voting for him! Personally I come from a line of people who live vigorously well into their 90s, so I haven’t been worrying about Biden’s health.

I believe the Dems will hit the abortion issue HARD. This is how they will turn Democrats out to the polls, even if enthusiasm for Biden himself is low. I see Trump losing a big chunk of his 2020 support from Independents and moderate Republicans. I don’t see his path to victory at this point. Another Republican nominee, maybe.

[sonrisa]

Aug 30, 2023 10:39:19 GMT -5 waverly said:

I agree with ESF . We were so far off in 2016. If Trump is in play it will always be a wildcard. The poll is just the opinion of a very few number of people, so I don't think it is indicative of anything anymore broad than that.

CEP is never representative of the whole country even if the election were tomorrow  

I'm curious to see how the board's opinion progresses over time. I'll ask again as legal cases work their way through the system and candidates come and go. 

[msmerymac]

I think you are all way too optimistic.

[cous0226]

If the economy doesn’t tank, I think that Biden will win but the numbers will be not as close as 2020 meaning he’d win by more. Abortion is a driver now. If Biden does win, I think the R party is severely fractured even more after it unless Trump dies. Desantis will run again but he better hope Trump crokes. McConnell dieing won’t help them either because he knows how to get the numbers for what he wants to push forward. The crackpot population in the house and senate will continue to grow.

[gerberdaisy]

While I really want to think optimistically, I don't see Biden winning. While Trump isn't that popular where I am, hating Biden is the predominant thought among R's and lots of D's. While I don't think any of the dems I know would ever vote for a rep, I just see a lot of people not turning out. Everyone I know who was so motivated 4 years ago to prevent a second Trump term has just gone silent. Thats what makes me most nervous, lack of turn out.

[StrawberryBlondie]

I just don't see the abortion issue going away or people caring about it less.

[Velar Fricative]

If the election was held today, Biden.

Abortion will still be an issue but I foresee that immigration will be too. I’m seeing right here in my blue city and state that the migrant crisis is top of mind for voters and enough to make some typical D voters reconsider voting for Ds. So that’s a toss-up.

But basically, we are lifetime away from November 2024. In September 2019 covid didn’t even exist. And we all remember asshole Comey in late October 2016.