Kamala's campaign

[kpol]

Nov 2, 2024 19:06:03 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Nov 2, 2024 18:32:05 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I’m ignoring all the polls, but this still made me get a little excited.

I’ve been ignoring them, too. I just don’t think they’re reliable. But Biden was down 18 in June, she was down by 4 in September, and now she’s up by 3…and no one has paid any attention to Iowa!

What surprises me the most is that the older people are leaning towards her!

My gut has been telling me for awhile that Iowa has a chance to pull this off…but I’m also scared to hope.

Anecdote: I moved to Iowa a few months ago and spoke with a canvasser for a house rep today. They said that although the signs may not make it seem this way, my neighborhood is overwhelmingly Harris supporters. They even said a few women asked how private the voting booths are. I’m letting myself have hope too!

[ZitchDog]

Nov 2, 2024 20:02:19 GMT -5 kpol said:

Nov 2, 2024 19:06:03 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

I’ve been ignoring them, too. I just don’t think they’re reliable. But Biden was down 18 in June, she was down by 4 in September, and now she’s up by 3…and no one has paid any attention to Iowa!

What surprises me the most is that the older people are leaning towards her!

My gut has been telling me for awhile that Iowa has a chance to pull this off…but I’m also scared to hope.

Anecdote: I moved to Iowa a few months ago and spoke with a canvasser for a house rep today. They said that although the signs may not make it seem this way, my neighborhood is overwhelmingly Harris supporters. They even said a few women asked how private the voting booths are. I’m letting myself have hope too!

We moved here a few years ago from New York, knowing we'd be going backwards, and I have to say the same thing-- our paper reported on how many signs were out and yard sign representation was overwhelmingly democratic in our purple town. Wild, and wonderful.

[wanderingback]

Last election was it looking pretty good that Biden won by Wednesday morning? I know when Clinton lost, we knew that night right?

Wednesday is my usual work from home day but I have something due @@@


Thats abortion related and it involves writing. It’s going to be hard to stay focused ugh.

[TR]

Nov 2, 2024 20:30:07 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Last election was it looking pretty good that Biden won by Wednesday morning? I know when Clinton lost, we knew that night right?

Wednesday is my usual work from home day but I have something due @@@


Thats abortion related and it involves writing. It’s going to be hard to stay focused ugh.

Re-reading the results thread from last year (it was posted in one of these threads) it looked like it was back and forth on swing states for a few days as batches of ballots were released.

[Velar Fricative]

Nov 2, 2024 20:30:07 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Last election was it looking pretty good that Biden won by Wednesday morning? I know when Clinton lost, we knew that night right?

Wednesday is my usual work from home day but I have something due @@@


Thats abortion related and it involves writing. It’s going to be hard to stay focused ugh.

We were waiting on PA so Biden wasn’t officially confirmed to have won until like the Saturday after the election.

I knew late that night in 2016. It may not have been official until later in the morning but I remember being up until 1:30 am eastern and seeing the map of Wisconsin and knew there was no possible way it would go blue after the numbers they were showing. But it was quick - the mood at work the next morning was very somber since Trump was confirmed to have won by the workday.

[klee23]

Nov 2, 2024 20:30:07 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Last election was it looking pretty good that Biden won by Wednesday morning? I know when Clinton lost, we knew that night right?

Wednesday is my usual work from home day but I have something due @@@


Thats abortion related and it involves writing. It’s going to be hard to stay focused ugh.

I want to said it was called Saturday, late morning. I remember what unit I was assigned with which coworker when I saw it was done.

PA was a big part of the problem since that was the first presidential race that mail in ballots were approved and election law says that cannot be counted until election day (can't remember if it's when polls open or close) so it's going to take days again to count them

[eb777888]

Nov 2, 2024 20:51:33 GMT -5 klee23 said:

Nov 2, 2024 20:30:07 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Last election was it looking pretty good that Biden won by Wednesday morning? I know when Clinton lost, we knew that night right?

Wednesday is my usual work from home day but I have something due @@@


Thats abortion related and it involves writing. It’s going to be hard to stay focused ugh.

I want to said it was called Saturday, late morning. I remember what unit I was assigned with which coworker when I saw it was done.

Me too. I remember going out for a champagne brunch on Saturday and people were celebrating in my red area! Possibly called late Friday, Idk, but Saturday seems right. 

[penguingineer]

Nov 2, 2024 20:30:07 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Last election was it looking pretty good that Biden won by Wednesday morning? I know when Clinton lost, we knew that night right?

Wednesday is my usual work from home day but I have something due @@@


Thats abortion related and it involves writing. It’s going to be hard to stay focused ugh.

We knew by midnight/1am eastern in 2016 on Tuesday night. It was so, so sad. I was on the phone with a friend crying.

Biden was called Saturday morning. It was my mom’s birthday, and she was visiting us. Very exciting!

[sakoro]

I remember the news network’s officially called it for Biden on Saturday morning after the Election Day. What a huge sigh of relief!

Hoping for sooner this time but willing to wait for a good result.

Harris is 3 points ahead in Iowa, previously thought to be a safe state for Trump — What ZitchDog and kpol observed anecdotally

[Nugget T. Brain, The OG]

Nov 2, 2024 19:33:41 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Nov 2, 2024 19:27:50 GMT -5 lust2hart said:

Yeah. SOMETHING is going on in Iowa. Even if it ultimately doesn’t go for Kamala, it’s progress.

Selzer has nailed it when everyone else got it wrong on several occasions now, so this isn’t the average poll.

Between this and Allen Litchman I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

[minzy]

Nov 2, 2024 19:49:33 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Nov 2, 2024 18:43:14 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

There is speculation (and I stress speculation) that she will appear on SNL tonight.

Confirmed by multiple sources!

Thanks for posting this. I just caught her and Maya Rudolph do the cold open in a mirror mirror skit.

[katfco]

Nov 2, 2024 22:40:20 GMT -5 minzy said:

Nov 2, 2024 19:49:33 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Confirmed by multiple sources!

Thanks for posting this. I just caught her and Maya Rudolph do the cold open in a mirror mirror skit.

It was worth it if only for the “open doors” joke

[Roc A Bee]

My election anxiety is overshadowing how a big fucking deal it would be for Kamala to win and to have our first woman president. I keep reminding myself that this is so important for so many reasons.

[basilosaurus]

Nov 2, 2024 11:21:07 GMT -5 cville said:

I **hate** door knocking. But I've canvassed three times now (one more on the schedule for tomorrow) and it's not bad at all. Most people don't answer the door. The ones that do are mostly polite, sometimes enthusiastic. And it's great to go to a campaign office for the drop off and pick up and be surrounded by other supporters.

If you're thinking about it, especially if you are in or can get to a swing state--DO IT. It feels good to do something so tangible.

In 2016 I was living in NoVA, and I actually answered the door. Because of those volunteers and our great interaction I decided to go door knocking myself. Our house was on the list because the previous owners were registered, so while it didn't affect my vote (we were out of state military voters), hopefully I affected others. 

[fernweh]

Nov 2, 2024 20:30:07 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Last election was it looking pretty good that Biden won by Wednesday morning? I know when Clinton lost, we knew that night right?

Wednesday is my usual work from home day but I have something due @@@


Thats abortion related and it involves writing. It’s going to be hard to stay focused ugh.

Yes, we knew night of in 2016. I remember waking up at 3am and I decided to turn on the tv to check for updates and saw his dumb smug face as the projected winner. I will never forget how I felt
That night.

[cous0226]

Guys omg omg where did this come from? Iowa!!!


www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

[underwaterrhymes]

Nov 2, 2024 22:54:46 GMT -5 katfco said:

Nov 2, 2024 22:40:20 GMT -5 minzy said:

Thanks for posting this. I just caught her and Maya Rudolph do the cold open in a mirror mirror skit.

It was worth it if only for the “open doors” joke

She was absolutely delightful. I love how she and Maya Rudolph just spent about 30 seconds just laughing together while the crowd cheered. So lovely.

And the Tim Kaine bit was funny.

[sent]

All the SNL skits about the election have been good this season but this one was special.

[neverfstop]

Hmmm....fingers crossed.
More info about hte Iowa pollster


The simplest explanation is that there’s a pollster named Ann Selzer. Her home base and speciality is Iowa but she also does national polling. She has a very good track record. For various reasons, among data nerds she’s taken on a kind of legendary status in recent cycles, not only for accuracy but also in 2016 and 2020 for releasing final polls that picked up in advance the surprises that came on Election Day. In other words, she has a record of outlier last polls that are later vindicated by election results. The almost totemic treatment of this poll can’t not be seen as a bit overblown. But Selzer has a very good record. There’s no getting around that.

Her final poll of Iowa, which is of course now a securely red state, was slated to come out at 7 p.m. this evening. People were eagerly awaiting the results to see whether Trump or Harris might be doing better than you’d expect for Iowa. It’s a given that Trump will win Iowa. The question everyone had is whether Selzer’s poll would say Trump’s margin was bigger or narrower than one might expect.

The poll came out and Harris was beating Trump by 3 percentage points. 47-44. No one considered anything like that a possibility. It’s sent a shockwave through election land.

talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/okay-what-about-the-selzer-poll

[wanderingback]

Nov 3, 2024 6:18:24 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Guys omg omg where did this come from? Iowa!!!


www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

@@@@
I know it’s semantics and I generally don’t like the terms pro life and pro choice. But yeah this means you’re pro choice….

"The registered Democrat said she identifies as pro-life but doesn’t think anyone should make that choice for somebody else.

“I just believe that if the Republicans can decide what you do with your body, what else are they going to do to limit your choice, for women?” she said."

[konapoppy]

Nov 3, 2024 6:48:53 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Nov 2, 2024 22:54:46 GMT -5 katfco said:

It was worth it if only for the “open doors” joke

She was absolutely delightful. I love how she and Maya Rudolph just spent about 30 seconds just laughing together while the crowd cheered. So lovely.

And the Tim Kaine bit was funny.

I pretty much always avoid hearing politicians speak, and I realized watching this that I haven’t seen her talk (besides the incessant ads lol) since the nomination speech. She is just so delightful. The skit was so cute!

[niemand88f]

Full sketch with Kamala at the end:
youtu.be/e6Funs6yyEw?feature=shared

[AAM2012]

Nov 3, 2024 8:36:14 GMT -5 niemand88f said:

Full sketch with Kamala at the end:
youtu.be/e6Funs6yyEw?feature=shared

Omg I looooved that!!!

[penguingrrl]

Nov 3, 2024 8:36:14 GMT -5 niemand88f said:

Full sketch with Kamala at the end:
youtu.be/e6Funs6yyEw?feature=shared

That was amazing! Thanks for sharing the link!

[AAM2012]

We had a guy come to our door yesterday, I never answer but saw his big Harris sticker so I talked to him.

He thanked me for the support (saw my yard sign) and wanted to make sure we knew where we were voting (husband already mailed his in) and if we had any questions.

I thanked him for what he was doing and he gave us a card his wife made.

It was super nice to experience because I feel like I live among a lot of trumpers…but the signs and flags are like 1/5 of what they were in 2016 and 2020 so I am hopeful.

[lilac05]

Nov 3, 2024 6:18:24 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Guys omg omg where did this come from? Iowa!!!


www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

It came from a whole lot of people doing the work! Not giving up because people thought there was absolutely no hope for this state. Not believing their vote doesn’t matter because “Iowa is Ruby red.” Not shying away from having hard conversations with family and friends. Listening to how the recent decisions regarding healthcare and education are impacting real people in their lives. Seeing what happens when Republicans hold all three branches of government and do whatever the hell they want regardless of what is popular with the people they supposedly represent. (@@their decisions on abortion bans AND school vouchers were both very unpopular here, but they did it anyway.)

I’ve been saying for awhile that I had some wild hope that Iowa could pull this off. In my purple area, there are FAR fewer Trump signs and FAR more Harris signs than in 2020.

Keep an eye on Iowa…we’re going to get this Governor out and get things back on the right track here.

[cous0226]

We don’t even need to win Iowa though it would be lovely but it’s a sign, a big one. Curious how Cruz and Scott will do in their seats.

[lilac05]

Nov 3, 2024 10:13:45 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

We don’t even need to win Iowa though it would be lovely but it’s a sign, a big one. Curious how Cruz and Scott will do in their seats.

I know you mean well, but this sucks to hear. Feeling like they don’t matter is part of what draws people to the other side or leads to people not voting at all.

Iowa + NC > Pennsylvania as far as electoral votes (22 vs 19)

Every vote in every state matters. We need every single one. And we need to stop making people think that only the votes in 7 states really make a difference. It disenfranchises voters whose voices matter, too.

[abs]

Nov 3, 2024 10:13:45 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

We don’t even need to win Iowa though it would be lovely but it’s a sign, a big one. Curious how Cruz and Scott will do in their seats.

I’m feeling pretty confident that Cruz is going to lose. No one likes him and no one has forgotten 2021. We will see.

[fernweh]

Nov 3, 2024 8:36:14 GMT -5 niemand88f said:

Full sketch with Kamala at the end:
youtu.be/e6Funs6yyEw?feature=shared

Thanks for sharing - all the clips I saw were just of the part with Kamala. It makes it even better with the rest of the skit.