How are you feeling about the election post-debate?

[estrellita]

Sept 13, 2024 11:37:11 GMT -5 fernweh said:

This has to be fake right. I saw an informal - we asked undecided readers if the debated changed their mind.

One of the readers said they we leaning Harris but after the debate they are firmly Trump because she wasn’t clear enough on her policies and didn’t really answer the questions.

Umm… this has to be someone making a joke right?!

One of my coworkers I've recently discovered is more conservative posted about the debate. So, she didn't flip her vote, but she did state that Harris wasn't providing her plans. She also mentioned "that smirk" of hers 🙄 But really, how in the world did she not talk about any plans? There were actual, specific plans laid out. Whether or not they actually happen of course is to been seen but like.. were they just sleeping the whole time?

@@@

She and some other commenters also double downed on the eating pets thing and babies being "aborted" after birth. Thankfully there were a couple sane people trying to debunk but she posted more about the abortion thing today. I didn't click but probably the same stupid crap that's been passed around and debunked over and over.

[lust2hart]

The only thing I’m 100% confident about is that Kamala will win the popular vote by a landslide. It’s hard for me to see how she doesn’t win in general, but then I think, “Oh yeah, that damn electoral college.”

[breezy8407]

I've had moments of hope and excitement, but then my anxiety returns thinking about it doesn't matter what he says or does, people are still going to vote for him.

I also hate the misogynist rhetoric around "she's too prepared" "She can't think on her feet with our prepared remarks" "what are her policies" but the terrible orange thing always get a pass.

Being from MN, I am obviously excited to see Tim on the national stage.

[sent]

Sept 13, 2024 11:37:11 GMT -5 fernweh said:

This has to be fake right. I saw an informal - we asked undecided readers if the debated changed their mind.

One of the readers said they we leaning Harris but after the debate they are firmly Trump because she wasn’t clear enough on her policies and didn’t really answer the questions.

Umm… this has to be someone making a joke right?!

That was a MAGA voter hiding in an undecided wolf suit, for the publicity. 

I am nervous about the swing states. My feed is like 50-50 among my colleagues. These are smart people who think he's the better choice. This is basically their white supremacy smoke signal combined with being rich people who want more tax breaks. I have to remind myself that even though I've created this bubble in adulthood where I don't have to deal with racists on a daily basis, racism is still very much alive in places I choose to no longer visit.

[mcsangel2]

Well, I guess I'll be the Debbie Downer of the group. If the election were today, I think Trump would win. I obsess over polls. Clinton and Biden were ahead by much more at this point in the last 2 elections. I know pollsters are trying to correct, this time, for the gap that Trump created between the polls and the actual turnout, but I fear there are still more silent Trump voters than we know about. Nate Silver has NV, GA, NC and PA tied right now. And Trump is leading again in AZ. So. Sorry.

[minzy]

Sept 13, 2024 11:21:39 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

To clarify, from last winter to prior to the Biden debate I predicted Biden would win based on demographics alone and I think Harris has a better chance. It’s hard to be optimistic though.

To calm my anxiety I like to list the ways that Cheeto has lost voters since November 2020:

January 6 and all the lies surrounding it
E. Jean Carrol verdict
34 felonies
Roe v Wade
The biased Supreme Court and other decisions
Most recent Epstein document release
Fake ear injury (could be +/-)
Picking JD Vance as a running mate
His age (everything he criticized Biden for)
Photo stunt at Arlington
Harris Debate
Project 2025 Denial / A Concept of a Plan

I’m sure I’m forgetting some right now. Feel free to add yours.

Well not on your list but unvaccinated people who died of COVID won’t be voting this time. This study estimates 232,000 preventable deaths in the US in the 15 months between May 2021 and September 2022. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37093505/
Also, general die-off of Boomers in the last four years. They’re starting to age into the average age of American death (76.33 years). I don’t know how quickly they’re being replaced by new voters, who would also vote the same way.

As for answering the question myself, I don’t know, it depends where I am! When I’m at home/work near DC, I feel like there are a ton of progressive voters. When I am in rural Ohio (where I spent most of the summer), I feel like the conservatives are everywhere. I have only seen two Harris flags the entire time I was in Ohio, and literally hundreds of Trump ones. Maybe that’s in part due to her late entry into the race and backlog with merch production, but it appears very lopsided towards him out there.

[underwaterrhymes]

Polls are not an effective means of predicting elections. Young people do not answer their phones. Hell, I don’t answer my phone. I also won’t click links that come to me via text.

Also, just a reminder that Lichtman has been remarkably effective at predicting elections based on his 13 keys and he has Harris winning. The only time he’s been wrong in 40 years was in 2000, which was the year of the hanging chad.

Now. I am anxious AF. The fucker could still win. But my anxiety is not because of the polls.

[sakoro]

I really have no idea. I don’t think polls are accurate anymore and it doesn’t make sense to compare to 2020 (when more people were home sitting around bored) and 2016.

My tenant who is Czech immigrant and typically doesn’t pay attention to American politics watched the debate. She approached me afterwards with horror regarding Trump. “All he does is talk about himself and not things relevant to people’s daily life” “he has a concept of a plan?!?” I think Kamala’s baiting approach worked better than Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden’s approach of reeling off facts and policy details to show what a narcissistic idiot her really is.

Trump people don’t want to vote for a weak man or a “loser” and he looked like that on Tuesday night. I’m hoping that some of them stay home.

[meganew]

Sept 13, 2024 10:23:59 GMT -5 TR said:

Call me crazy or naive, but I think it’s going to be a decisive victory for Harris/Walz. I’m using one of my 4/yr remote weeks to work from home that week because it’s the first time in I don’t know how long that I think there might be a favorable outcome on election night, even if it’s late. In 2020, we knew it wouldn’t be called that night because of mail-in votes. In 2016, I went to bed when things started going south because it was too depressing. 2012 was kind of a duh. So. Anyway. I’m pumped.

This does NOT mean that I’m getting complacent. I’m signed up to drive democratic voters to the polls on Election Day and will block walk.

I’m already putting in for a personal day for that Wednesday. I’m either going to be happy hungover or sad hungover.

[elleblue]

Sept 13, 2024 14:38:49 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Well, I guess I'll be the Debbie Downer of the group. If the election were today, I think Trump would win. I obsess over polls. Clinton and Biden were ahead by much more at this point in the last 2 elections. I know pollsters are trying to correct, this time, for the gap that Trump created between the polls and the actual turnout, but I fear there are still more silent Trump voters than we know about. Nate Silver has NV, GA, NC and PA tied right now. And Trump is leading again in AZ. So. Sorry.

Nate Silver is working for Peter Thiel. His polls are absolute shite. Not that I'm saying we should take anything for granted, but the idea that he has his finger on the pulse of *anything* is a complete joke.

[mcsangel2]

Sept 13, 2024 19:31:11 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Sept 13, 2024 14:38:49 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Well, I guess I'll be the Debbie Downer of the group. If the election were today, I think Trump would win. I obsess over polls. Clinton and Biden were ahead by much more at this point in the last 2 elections. I know pollsters are trying to correct, this time, for the gap that Trump created between the polls and the actual turnout, but I fear there are still more silent Trump voters than we know about. Nate Silver has NV, GA, NC and PA tied right now. And Trump is leading again in AZ. So. Sorry.

Nate Silver is working for Peter Thiel. His polls are absolute shite. Not that I'm saying we should take anything for granted, but the idea that he has his finger on the pulse of *anything* is a complete joke.

538 (no longer owned by Nate Silver) and 270toWin has it this close too.

[ellipses84]

minzy oh yeah, I mentioned the whole demographic shift in my first post but forgot to mention how Covid impacted that. There’s definitely tons of Covid deniers who voted in 2020 and died of Covid, are suffering from long covid, or have witnessed it first hand with loved ones and changed their stance. I feel like sometimes the people who get scammed by a snake oil salesman or get out of a cult can be the most fervent opposition to it to help others see the light.

GenZ overwhelmingly votes anti-Republican 🙌 It’s a voter turnout numbers game though. Rough numbers since the last election, 10 million Boomers died, 41 million GenZ are eligible to vote. Some 2023 surveys show 75% of Boomers are registered to vote and they are majority R at 40%, but voted about 51% for Trump over Biden in 2020. GenZ was 40% registered to vote (but I think that’s going up) and they are majority D at 40% and polling for Harris at 50%. The bigger difference is that GenZ is only 14% R which is super low with more liberal leaning Independent or undecided/ unaffiliated voters that will likely vote D, 3rd party or not at all in this election. That’s why it’s super important to talk to GenZ voters you know about our unfortunate 2 party electoral college system and what happened in 2016 because they may not remember or fully understand. By my estimates since 2020, Boomers lost 3.8 million Rs and lost 3.7 million Ds. GenZ gained 2.3 million Rs and gained 6.5-8.2 million Ds. That still leaves 36% of GenZ votes TBD, but even if TBD went 50-50 R-D, the total could conservatively be 9.6 million R GenZ votes vs 13.8-15.5 million D GenZ votes, and I think the delta will be much greater with more D votes.

Millennials are also a massive voting block that votes majority Dem 🙌 The more people 18-45 who register and vote, the wider the spread for democrats getting the majority. Evaluating the demographics in each swing state would be a better predictor, but where there’s good size population and elections have been won or lost by less than a few hundred thousand votes, new GenZ voters can really make a difference.

[cville]

Sept 13, 2024 19:55:44 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Sept 13, 2024 19:31:11 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Nate Silver is working for Peter Thiel. His polls are absolute shite. Not that I'm saying we should take anything for granted, but the idea that he has his finger on the pulse of *anything* is a complete joke.

538 (no longer owned by Nate Silver) and 270toWin has it this close too.

You are right. It's going to be close. Hence optimism tinged with terror on my part.

But I have felt this way since she became the nominee snd the debate didn't change it. Which is a nice change from ONLY terror.

[elleblue]

Sept 13, 2024 19:55:44 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Sept 13, 2024 19:31:11 GMT -5 elleblue said:

Nate Silver is working for Peter Thiel. His polls are absolute shite. Not that I'm saying we should take anything for granted, but the idea that he has his finger on the pulse of *anything* is a complete joke.

538 (no longer owned by Nate Silver) and 270toWin has it this close too.

Sure, but that's not who you name checked. I'm not claiming it's not close, I'm just not peddling the same gloom and doom.

[livinitup]

It’s shocking, SHOCKING to me that it’s this close. But cults fascinate me in general.

[abs]

Sept 13, 2024 21:34:00 GMT -5 livinitup said:

It’s shocking, SHOCKING to me that it’s this close. But cults fascinate me in general.

Same. I do know people that will be voting for Kamala because they’ve realized Trump is evil. Far too many though just think my life was better when Trump was president because my groceries were cheaper. So yeah. Hopeful but terrified.

[konapoppy]

Sept 13, 2024 22:07:23 GMT -5 abs said:

Sept 13, 2024 21:34:00 GMT -5 livinitup said:

It’s shocking, SHOCKING to me that it’s this close. But cults fascinate me in general.

Same. I do know people that will be voting for Kamala because they’ve realized Trump is evil. Far too many though just think my life was better when Trump was president because my groceries were cheaper. So yeah. Hopeful but terrified.

The people who fail to grasp how much Covid shifted economics across the entire globe make my head explode.

[somersault72]

I'm shocked (though I shouldn't be) about the number of Trumpsters I've seen doubling down on SM after his dumpster fire of a performance. Delusion? Willful ignorance?

I'm also continually saddened that we are even having to worry about this--that there are that many people in this country willing to vote for this guy.

[heygrey]

I am quite optimistic. Because the conservative evangelical church is where I came from, I see a lot of millennials leaving the church, deconstructing, and changing their political affiliation. With the rise in Gen Z voters who are more likely to vote D and enough older R voters swayed to the other side I think we are going to get this thing done.

Has there been another election where so many prominent people from one party loudly declared their vote for the other candidate? There are always a few who like to stir the pot, but I am continually amazed at the Republicans who are coming out loudly opposing Trump in this election. I think that is having an influence on the people who were starting to question Trump, but wanted to toe party lines. Now they see that they don't have to do that. And I don't care if they don't vote for Harris, but if it prevents a vote for Trump, I'll take it.

[basilosaurus]

Sept 13, 2024 22:27:58 GMT -5 heygrey said:

I am quite optimistic. Because the conservative evangelical church is where I came from, I see a lot of millennials leaving the church, deconstructing, and changing their political affiliation. With the rise in Gen Z voters who are more likely to vote D and enough older R voters swayed to the other side I think we are going to get this thing done.

Has there been another election where so many prominent people from one party loudly declared their vote for the other candidate? There are always a few who like to stir the pot, but I am continually amazed at the Republicans who are coming out loudly opposing Trump in this election. I think that is having an influence on the people who were starting to question Trump, but wanted to toe party lines. Now they see that they don't have to do that. And I don't care if they don't vote for Harris, but if it prevents a vote for Trump, I'll take it.

I think you're quite right about these prominent folks saying affirmatively not to vote for their own party.

Fucking cheney. gonzales. (idiot w still silent). These are people who crafted this party, and they're saying, nope, bad idea, not today.

[basilosaurus]

I'm feeling slightly optomistic based on chatter I get exposed to in a country with kind of no stakes in this election. From taxi drivers, servers, hotel receptionists, people are informed and want to talk. I do get respectfully asked for clarification sometimes.

I'm often the only American, the only white person, the only voter, and I witnessed last night one person get taken to task for supporting "she just turned black" bullshit. People here identify by ethnicity in a way I've not experienced before, so forgive me for explaining the way they say and identify and are categorized by others.

He's Chinese, an ethnicity historically maligned as cat, dog pet eaters in murca. 2 others at the table, both Indian, and a biracial Indian man who, as it was brought up by the party being called out, is gay. Because, what? That matters? A cornered animal will strike I guess. Even in this conservative country we all went, wtf, dude? This has nothing to do with anything.

If American voters are half as engaged and informed as these non citizens halfway around the world, I'm optimistic. They were passionate about the obvious racism. And they were very wtf about the pet eating comments (they don't even know about the history of Chinese immigrants eating pets as a punchline).

But, when was the last time you took a taxi to the airport and engaged in a pros and cons discussion about parliamentary vs us system (yesterday for me)? I'd sound a braggart if I related the many taxi or coffee shop random conversations I've had that have far more intellect than anything ever see on faux news since, oh, 2005? The world is watching is not a throwaway statement.

It's bizarro world to sit and witness when I'm the only voter and sit mostly silent. I want my friends on the stage! They're good at this shit.

[formerlyak]

@@@@

I read this for a reality check because I live in CA and we are definitely a blue state.

Curious if high schools in other states do voter registration events. Lots of high school seniors will be eligible to vote. If the stats posted upthread about Gen Z leaning more liberal, but we don’t know what their turn out will be like, maybe some effort there is needed? DS’ class all got to register at school last year and at the high school registration this year there was a voter sign up during senior registration day.

[ellipses84]

I’m also feeling relief the debate is over and glad if it was the last one. Although the chaos after the previous debate led to Kamala-Walz, I feel like that was by some miracle Dem’s united. I don’t think much good would come from a 2nd debate between these two candidates and I don’t think a lot of undecided voters minds would be changed. I don’t think many undecided voters are watching debates and after this one they are just seeing clips about eating cats. Not worth the poor city of Springfield and its LEGAL immigrants being tormented, although I hope the news stories sway more people to D than R votes. The only argument for it is a voter for one side who watched would be forced to listen to both candidates and any reasonable person would acknowledge that something is seriously wrong with Trump, but his cult followers are delusional and claim he won the debate. Now Harris can focus her time on a positive message on the campaign trail, do televised town halls, interviews, use all the dirt she already has on cheeto in scathing tv ads, instead of arguing with a narcissist.

[Jalapeñomel]

Sept 14, 2024 9:35:05 GMT -5 formerlyak said:

@@@@

I read this for a reality check because I live in CA and we are definitely a blue state.

Curious if high schools in other states do voter registration events. Lots of high school seniors will be eligible to vote. If the stats posted upthread about Gen Z leaning more liberal, but we don’t know what their turn out will be like, maybe some effort there is needed? DS’ class all got to register at school last year and at the high school registration this year there was a voter sign up during senior registration day.

@@@@

My school does this every year! And I’m grateful to teach HS, because the young folks around me are overwhelmingly anti-Trump and anti-Republican (and their parents in this neighborhood are the opposite).

[penguingrrl]

Sept 14, 2024 9:35:05 GMT -5 formerlyak said:

@@@@

I read this for a reality check because I live in CA and we are definitely a blue state.

Curious if high schools in other states do voter registration events. Lots of high school seniors will be eligible to vote. If the stats posted upthread about Gen Z leaning more liberal, but we don’t know what their turn out will be like, maybe some effort there is needed? DS’ class all got to register at school last year and at the high school registration this year there was a voter sign up during senior registration day.

@@@
I’m in NJ and we have voter registration drives in high schools as well. I think it’s fantastic! I know a few people who have been involved in that.

We also have a box to check at DMV to register, and a lot of teens register that what as well. My kid turned 17 two weeks ago (drivers license age in NJ) and is already a registered voter, though obviously can’t vote yet in this election. Their voter registration card arrived this week having been processed, so next June they’ll be able to vote in the primaries (NJ allows anyone who will be an eligible voter by Election Day to vote in primaries).

I think all this outreach and systems that make registering easy will really help get people on the rolls. Time will tell if that gets them to the polls.

[neeps]

Sept 14, 2024 9:38:42 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

I’m also feeling relief the debate is over and glad if it was the last one. Although the chaos after the previous debate led to Kamala-Walz, I feel like that was by some miracle Dem’s united. I don’t think much good would come from a 2nd debate between these two candidates and I don’t think a lot of undecided voters minds would be changed. I don’t think many undecided voters are watching debates and after this one they are just seeing clips about eating cats. Not worth the poor city of Springfield and its LEGAL immigrants being tormented, although I hope the news stories sway more people to D than R votes. The only argument for it is a voter for one side who watched would be forced to listen to both candidates and any reasonable person would acknowledge that something is seriously wrong with Trump, but his cult followers are delusional and claim he won the debate. Now Harris can focus her time on a positive message on the campaign trail, do televised town halls, interviews, use all the dirt she already has on cheeto in scathing tv ads, instead of arguing with a narcissist.

I'm actually sad there's not another debate because the side by side contrast is amazing for Harris. This article (gift link) does a good job of explaining why the debates hurt Trump much more than Harris. We have to remember not everyone is in the cult. Outside of MAGA most people aren't paying any attention to what he says at rallies or they see it sanitized by the media. Some people just vote R because they've always voted R - it's what they do - and pay literally no attention to politics. This crazy stuff leaking into their daily orbit outside of the rallies is good for awareness of just how off the rails Trump has gone. If all it does is disgust them enough to stay home, then that's great.

[kellady]

I’m up and down. I was very optimistic after the debate,, but it is discouraging reading the continuous and dangerous lies being spread by the Trump team, and even more discouraging that they seem to be believed by some, resulting in bomb threats in Springfield OH.

I’m going to go donate to Tester and Brown soon. I hope that makes me feel more hopeful. And I have 200 more postcards to write.

[imimahoney]

Sept 14, 2024 9:35:05 GMT -5 formerlyak said:

@@@@

I read this for a reality check because I live in CA and we are definitely a blue state.

Curious if high schools in other states do voter registration events. Lots of high school seniors will be eligible to vote. If the stats posted upthread about Gen Z leaning more liberal, but we don’t know what their turn out will be like, maybe some effort there is needed? DS’ class all got to register at school last year and at the high school registration this year there was a voter sign up during senior registration day.

Not an event but when a student turns 18 my department (social studies) gifts them a voter registration card and we turn it in for them at town hall.

[havarti]

Sept 14, 2024 14:01:11 GMT -5 kellady said:

I’m up and down. I was very optimistic after the debate,, but it is discouraging reading the continuous and dangerous lies being spread by the Trump team, and even more discouraging that they seem to be believed by some, resulting in bomb threats in Springfield OH.

I’m going to go donate to Tester and Brown soon. I hope that makes me feel more hopeful. And I have 200 more postcards to write.

I’m optimistic about Harris, but I’m becoming increasingly annoyed that the media continues to give oxygen to Trump’s immigration lies instead of focusing on conversations around either candidate’s policy proposals.

[lilac05]

A poll out yesterday showed that Harris is only behind in Iowa by 4 points! Biden was down by 18 points the last time that poll was conducted.

This tells me several things: (and puts on my rose colored glasses)
1) NO PLACE is out of the question
2) We MUST keep working
3) People aren’t “too far gone.” There are STILL people changing from Trump to Harris. We don’t have to understand it for it to be true. No, his die hard cult members are not going to change, but there are still people who are deciding that the “lesser of two evils” is Harris, not Trump. Never give up on people.
4) The Republicans speaking up and saying they won’t endorse Trump matter. The more that do it, the more people have a chance to realize that the party itself is unrecognizable to what they thought they were voting for.