Hurricane Helene (Cat 3 or 4) to hit FL panhandle ThursdayPM

[neverfstop]

www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/09/25/helene-florida-hurricane-path-update/  

Here we go again...Looks like it's hitting a generally less populated coastline, but straight at Tallahassee.

[underwaterrhymes]

I follow Denis Phillips during hurricane season and this is the most concerned I have seen him in quite awhile.

[heat40]

Yea there’s definitely concern for the big bend area. particularly with flooding. It’s also pretty massive so we’ll be feeling some winds all the way down here in Miami.

Hoping everyone is prepared and safe.

[mcppalmbeach]

Sept 25, 2024 14:52:09 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I follow Denis Phillips during hurricane season and this is the most concerned I have seen him in quite awhile.

He does he does seem concerningly concerned.

[sju]

I have many friends in the Tallahassee area and at least one will ride the storm at home because it would be too difficult to evacuate with numerous pets. Homes in that area are not built to the same standards as areas in central and south FL so I am concerned. The number of trees is significantly higher as well.

Everyone stay safe!

[Gato]

This is going to be a really bad one. It has all night to draw on the super hot waters of the Gulf, it has no dry air or wind shear around to calm it down, and it’s huge. I just hope it makes landfall somewhere relatively unpopulated. Stay safe everyone in its path.

[abs]

Thinking of everyone in the path. Really hoping it’s not as bad as predicted but it’s not looking good.

I hate hurricanes. Reading the evening updates is making me sick to my stomach.

[statgirl]

I’m right on the western edge of the cone with Hurricane Michael PTSD. My whole area has been stressed all week. We prepped as much as we could and are staying with (local) family. I’m worried for Apalachicola—that area is so beautiful and so low.

[mofongo]

I have been watching the weather channel on/off all day. I hate this for anyone:(( thinking of those in the path. Cat 4 is just terrible, they do seem concerned.

[scout8]

I'm in the mountains in Western NC. We are already getting rain and then Helene is going to bring more. It's basically going to rain non stop through Friday. If it's as bad as they say, we will see major flooding. And we are nowhere near a coast.

[pixy0stix]

I honestly can't tell if the people on social media who are in the path of the hurricane are actually telling the truth about not knowing a hurricane is coming for them.

[AAM2012]

I hope everyone stays safe and sending positive vibes!

The good news for Florida is that this appears to be fast moving versus just sitting over the area for days.

I work in insurance and we’re expecting higher impacts in the GA, SC, SC area due to recent flooding plus now this.

If I can help anyone here by any means, please let me know. ❤️

[circa1978]

Sept 25, 2024 22:02:37 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

I honestly can't tell if the people on social media who are in the path of the hurricane are actually telling the truth about not knowing a hurricane is coming for them.

This is probably more detail than you want but I can't sleep. I used to be a hurricane reporter in Florida. I left in 2009, but many of my friends and former colleagues still live there and struggle with this. It is actually very difficult to get people to pay attention to storms, particularly locals who have been through a million before. It was better immediately after Katrina but even though models have improved, they shift and on a very long, thin state even a small shift makes a difference in most storms to the point that sometimes you evacuate to an area that ends up getting hit harder than your home. Because of the long state thing and limited infrastructure, evacuation north is a PITA/expensive, particularly with pets and kids. (Not to mention that if you live on a barrier island - and I've lived on three - you risk not getting back on for days to weeks, and people think the risk of not being able to clean up after a power loss is bigger than their risk of loss of life from a storm. And sometimes that is true. It just depends on factors that are impossible to know until the last minute, like landfall and storm surge.) Put it all together with a state of people who generally have a distrust of authority/moved there to "get away from" reality and you have a population that doesn't pay attention/believe forecasts that is really, really hard to get through to until the last minute. 🤷🏼‍♀️

[lessel]

I think another factor in people in the path not paying attention is that storms that formed in the Gulf and hit weren’t typically that strong. Maybe I’m not fully remembering, but I grew up in FL and I feel like the only ones we really watched and worried about (and learned to plot and track in school) were those coming from the far Atlantic, forming off the coast of Africa. Those were typically the ones you could watch for days and days as they became a Cat 4 or 5. It feels like these storms are going from a depression to a Cat 4 in like 2 days.

[basilosaurus]

Sept 26, 2024 2:39:06 GMT -5 circa1978 said:

Sept 25, 2024 22:02:37 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

I honestly can't tell if the people on social media who are in the path of the hurricane are actually telling the truth about not knowing a hurricane is coming for them.

This is probably more detail than you want but I can't sleep. I used to be a hurricane reporter in Florida. I left in 2009, but many of my friends and former colleagues still live there and struggle with this. It is actually very difficult to get people to pay attention to storms, particularly locals who have been through a million before. It was better immediately after Katrina but even though models have improved, they shift and on a very long, thin state even a small shift makes a difference in most storms to the point that sometimes you evacuate to an area that ends up getting hit harder than your home. Because of the long state thing and limited infrastructure, evacuation north is a PITA/expensive, particularly with pets and kids. (Not to mention that if you live on a barrier island - and I've lived on three - you risk not getting back on for days to weeks, and people think the risk of not being able to clean up after a power loss is bigger than their risk of loss of life from a storm. And sometimes that is true. It just depends on factors that are impossible to know until the last minute, like landfall and storm surge.) Put it all together with a state of people who generally have a trust of authority/moved there to "get away from" reality and you have a population that doesn't pay attention/believe forecasts that is really, really hard to get through to until the last minute. 🤷🏼‍♀️

It's probably my dad's engineer self, but we had full on checklists detailing what to do at which point in time. (I'm from S FL). Most people I know did similar. But, yes, there were people forced to evacuate even in zone 1. Still, yes, there is definitely a blase attitude unless it's bearing down on you. I think that goes back to when predictions weren't as accurate. Which is probably why my dad's list was hourly countdowns.

Even after devastation from Andrew, Floyd, Wilma, Dorian (my family is still rebuilding 5 years later)... people will still wait last minute for full on prep.

We'd just evacuate to "inland" which by most standards isn't very far, but it's away from storm surge, and that's the goal. You're right that the north south is so long it is nearly impossible to go out of predicted path. Andrew hit S of Miami, but it was predicted to hit Miami/Ft Laud central. Where do you go? 

I do understand pixy's point that how do you not believe it's going to hit you?! But also, evacuating can be very difficult especially if you have kids or pets or both. Shelters can be pretty restrictive. And can you return? And that's if you're privileged enough to have the means to evacuate and stay at a hotel for who knows how long.

[sju]

pixy0stix, yet another factor, this storm “just” formed. I knew it was going to form because I pay attention but sometimes people need to actually see them. A co-worker (from Miami) who is normally very smart was upset and questioning on Tuesday why visitors from out of state were canceling a visit.

[underwaterrhymes]

I think circa1978 makes great points, especially regarding the mistrust. I lived in Florida during 2004 when we got Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne and even then people were reluctant to trust forecasters

I think part of it is lack of trust in authority and part of it is that if a forecast is slightly off, people remember that rather than the times forecasts have been accurate. We see that in the Midwest during tornado season. Plus, if there is even slightly the mention that fact that climate change has an impact on extreme weather, people who already are unlikely to trust, dig in their heels even more.

This one is going to be really bad. I hope that whomever can leave already has and that whomever stayed behind stays safe.

[underwaterrhymes]

Also - sharing what Denis Phillips shares on his FB feed pretty regularly in case it’s helpful to anyone here or their families. Spoiler tagged because it’s long.

SPOILER: Click to show

I feel compelled to share this just one last time. Please share with anyone in the Big Bend who has decided to ride out the storm. Same for students at Florida State University and Florida A&M University. University of Florida students will be on the fringe of the heavy stuff but should be ok.
Here's a list I've compiled over the years. Our family has found it helpful.
1. Charge any device that provides light. Laptops, tablets, cameras, video cameras, and old phones. Old cell phones can still used for dialing 911. Charge external battery backups. ( Glow sticks also provide light for a few hours. Stand them upright in a glass or jar to make a lantern.)
2. Wash all trash cans, big and small, and fill them with water for flushing toilets. Line outdoor trash cans with trash bags, fill them with water, and store them in the garage. Add bleach to sterilize.
3. Fill every tub and sink with water. Cover sinks with Saran Wrap to keep it from collecting dust. Fill the washing machine and leave the lid up to store water.
4. Fill old empty water bottles and other containers with water and keep them near sinks for washing hands.
5. Fill every Tupperware with water and store in the freezer. These will help keep food cold longer and serve as a backup water supply.
6. Fill drinking cups with water and cover with Saran Wrap. Store as many as possible in the fridge. The rest you can store on the counter and use first before any water bottles are opened. Ice is impossible to find after the storm.
7. Reserve fridge space for storing tap water and keep the sealed water bottles on the counter.
8. Cook any meats in advance and other perishable foods. You can freeze cooked food. Hard boil eggs for snacks for first day without power.
9. Be well hydrated before the storm hits and avoid salty foods that make you dehydrated.
10. Wash all dirty clothes and bed sheets. Anything dirty will smell without the A/C, you may need the items, and with no A/C, you'll be sweating a lot. You're going to want clean sheets.
11. Toss out any expired food, clean cat litter boxes, and empty all trash cans in the house, including bathrooms. Remove anything that will cause an odor when the A/C is off. If you don't have a trash day pickup before the storm, find a dumpster.
12. Bring in any yard decor, secure anything that will fly around, secure gates, bring in hoses, potted plants, etc. Bring in patio furniture and grills.
13. Clean your environment so you have clear, easy escape routes. Even if that means temporarily moving furniture to one area.
14. Scrub all bathrooms so you are starting with a clean odor-free environment. Store water-filled trash cans next to each toilet for flushing.
15. Place everything you own that is important and necessary in a backpack or small file box that is easy to grab. Include your wallet with ID, phone, hand sanitizer, snacks, etc. Get plastic sleeves for important documents.
16. Make sure you have cash on hand.
17. Stock up on pet food and fill up bowls of water for pets.
18. Refill any medications. Most insurance companies allow for 2 emergency refills per year.
19. Fill your propane tanks. You can heat soup cans, boil water, make coffee, and other stuff besides just grilling meat. Get an extra, if possible.
20. Drop your A/C in advance and lower temperatures in your fridges.
21. Gather all candles, flashlights, lighters, matches, batteries, and other items and keep them accessible.
22. Clean all counters in advance. Start with a clean surface. Buy Clorox Wipes for cleaning when there is no power. Mop your floors and vacuum. If power is out for 10 days, you'll have to live in the mess you started with.
23. Pick your emergency safe place such as a closet under the stairs. Store the items you'll need in that location for the brunt of the storm. Make a hand fan for when the power is out.
24. Shower just before the storm is scheduled to hit.
25. Keep baby wipes next to each toilet. Don't flush them. It's not the time to risk clogging your toilet!
26. Run your dishwasher, don't risk having dirty smelly dishes and you need every container for water! Remember you'll need clean water for brushing your teeth, washing yourself, and cleaning your hands.
27. Put a small suitcase in your car in case you decide to evacuate. Also, put at least one jug of water in your car. It will still be there if you don't evacuate! Remember to pack for pets as well.
28. Check on all family members, set up emergency backup plans, and check on elderly neighbors.
29. Remember, pets are family too. Take them with you!
30. Before the storm, unplug all electronics. There will be power surges during and after the storm.
31. Gas up your car and have a spare gas container for your generator or your car when you run out.
32 . Use plastic cups and paper plates. 👍 You need water to wash dishes....👎
33 . Also if you run out of water tap your hot water heater it can have up to 30 gallons stored in there.
34 . Put water in balloons and store it in the freezer.
35 . If it's yellow let it mellow, if it's brown Flush it down!💩
If you can, take a video of your house and contents....walk room to room--open cabinets/drawers and closets. This will help if you need to make a claim later. It will show proof of items and help you list all the items (help your memory, so you don't forget anything)...I highly recommend it!!!
I also heard you should freeze a cup of water, and place a coin on top after it is frozen...keep this in your freezer to help you gauge the temperature if the power goes out. If the coin stays on top, the food is staying frozen. If the coin falls into the water, the freezer thawed out and most food will likely need to be thrown away. This is super helpful is you have to leave and come back, as it may appear everything is still frozen, but if the coin is in the cup--you will know!!
Rule #7 And for those asking, that means "Don't freak out unless I'm freaking out..we're fine". Whatever comes our way, we've got this as long as we stay informed and prepared.

[heat40]

Yea. I didn’t know about this storm until a couple of days ago. It’s hurricane season, many storms or tropical depressions form and then go nowhere or don’t come to us, so we are reluctant to pay attention until our weather experts are literally sayin “Get ready now!”. Also, unfortunately, we are used to storms and the joke around here is, unless it’s at least a cat 3, it’s business as usual.

This one in particular was fast, so people didn’t have as much time to prep. Hoping the damage is minimal and everyone is safe. And be careful after the storm passes. In my experience, the aftermath is the worst part.

[abs]

Our local weather has been talking about this storm for over a week now. If anyone wants to follow a hurricane specific account I highly, highly recommend the eyewall.

theeyewall.com/

These guys have gotten us through many, many storms. Maybe it’s just because the weather here has been relentless with disaster after disaster for the last 10 years but I pay attention to anything that could come my way all hurricane season. It’s another reason why I’ll forget be on team summer is the worst.

[circa1978]

Sept 26, 2024 6:23:42 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I lived in Florida during 2004 when we got Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne and even then people were reluctant to trust forecasters

]

Hurricane twins! Seriously, this is a reason we moved to the Midwest to try for kids, which was easier for us because although we met there we were both transplants. I didn't get to totally evacuate for most storms because I had to stay to cover them, obviously, but I had to leave my home every time when they approached the barrier islands we lived on. I was actually at Waveland, where Katrina made landfall to cover it (having also had Katrina pass over me as a tropical storm in Naples/Bonita) and that was sobering but maybe if we'd stayed, I would have gotten immune again, like since people did post Andrew. The home I lived in in Bonita Beach is gone, though, wiped out by the last storm to hit there. Regardless, Florida friends, stay safe.

[underwaterrhymes]

Sept 26, 2024 7:18:22 GMT -5 circa1978 said:

Sept 26, 2024 6:23:42 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I lived in Florida during 2004 when we got Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne and even then people were reluctant to trust forecasters

]

Hurricane twins! Seriously, this is a reason we moved to the Midwest to try for kids, which was easier for us because although we met there we were both transplants. I didn't get to totally evacuate for most storms because I had to stay to cover them, obviously, but I had to leave my home every time when they approached the barrier islands we lived on. I was actually at Waveland, where Katrina made landfall to cover it (having also had Katrina pass over me as a tropical storm in Naples/Bonita) and that was sobering but maybe if we'd stayed, I would have gotten immune again, like since people did post Andrew. The home I lived in in Bonita Beach is gone, though, wiped out by the last storm to hit there. Regardless, Florida friends, stay safe.

💙💙💙

[lessel]

I was also in FL in 2004 and I think the jog right that Charlie took unexpectedly (from coming inland around Tampa to instead hitting like Naples area head on) caused an uptick in mistrust of the forecasts.

[pixy0stix]

But not even being peripherally aware that something might happen just blows my mind. Even in the "oh, I should probably bring in the plants cause of the wind" kind of way.

[katb]

Sept 25, 2024 20:02:57 GMT -5 scout8 said:

I'm in the mountains in Western NC. We are already getting rain and then Helene is going to bring more. It's basically going to rain non stop through Friday. If it's as bad as they say, we will see major flooding. And we are nowhere near a coast.

My DD is in Western Carolina and I am nervous for her.  A bunch of them had planned to go to Gatlinburg on Friday but I think I convinced her to stay put and ride it out on campus.

[estrellita]

We just flew into Orlando a few hours ago, ahead of the storm. Flight was fine, a few bumps but that was it. We're getting food and maybe a half hour ago it was raining sideways and stopped pretty quickly. We're expecting more rain and our cruise leaving tomorrow should be fine other than leaving later.

Thinking of everyone in the path, stay safe!

[windyseas]

Sept 26, 2024 7:42:50 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

But not even being peripherally aware that something might happen just blows my mind. Even in the "oh, I should probably bring in the plants cause of the wind" kind of way.

You would be unbelievably shocked at how oblivious people remain to weather.  I'm not in Florida, but in Alabama, and even when severe weather is predicted days in advance, there are people that didn't even know it was going to rain.  My co-worker is one of those people that just has no clue what is going on outside of her little world.  I'm often baffled by her ability to just shut out everything. 

[mofongo]

I’m home and done with all things on my todo list for the day, H and I are both just watching the weather channel. Between Nola and PR, we know what it’s like, I hate this for all in the path. Why do these things always happen at night? Is there some scientific reason?!

[stuffandthings]

Sept 26, 2024 17:31:58 GMT -5 mofongo said:

I’m home and done with all things on my todo list for the day, H and I are both just watching the weather channel. Between Nola and PR, we know what it’s like, I hate this for all in the path. Why do these things always happen at night? Is there some scientific reason?!

Y’know I’ve never thought about it before until you said this, but that’s totally a thing! Both of the hurricanes I’ve been in hit at night.

[Velar Fricative]

I hope everyone in the path remains safe. It’s a category 4 now and there will be really bad impacts in parts of several states that don’t see this kind of thing happen often if at all.