Hurricane Helene (Cat 3 or 4) to hit FL panhandle ThursdayPM

[basilosaurus]

pizzaandtulips, I think that likely refers to a confluence of factors like water temp and location of high and low pressure systems, not that they're tracking anything specifically. Wunderground has a hurricane section that lets you know active systems they're watching.

There are also other far more wonky sites that get into deep discussions about weather like NOAA and various forums.

[scout8]

Sept 29, 2024 19:39:25 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

The amount of people on social media blaming the government for not properly warning them, when I can go back to wherever they're posting from and see multiple news articles etc. and the NWS practically screaming that the weather is going to be life threatening... it's disheartening. I don't know how the government can warn people if they're not listening.

We had lots of warnings, but I don't think anyone expected it to be this bad. This is way worse than anything we've ever experienced. I don't think the government expected it to be this bad either or they would have recommended evacuation.

[frlcb]

Sept 30, 2024 7:16:24 GMT -5 scout8 said:

Sept 29, 2024 19:39:25 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

The amount of people on social media blaming the government for not properly warning them, when I can go back to wherever they're posting from and see multiple news articles etc. and the NWS practically screaming that the weather is going to be life threatening... it's disheartening. I don't know how the government can warn people if they're not listening.

We had lots of warnings, but I don't think anyone expected it to be this bad. This is way worse than anything we've ever experienced. I don't think the government expected it to be this bad either or they would have recommended evacuation.

It also shifted, it was supposed to hit Atlanta worse and shifted which gave more impact to WNC and TN. I am in atlanta and we had 14 inches over 2 days and now have a flooded basement. It could be so much worse, I know.

[JayhawkGirl]

I came upon this summary of the alerts from NWS there. Knowing how true it became makes it hard to read. The statement from the nws about how they would have so wished to be wrong about this forecast
x.com/minghao_zhou/status/1840274418091577845?s=46

[orval]

I think it is hard to imagine what a "catastrophic" event might be for your neighborhood. If you aren't on a river or that close to one, you would likely not think it would reach you. In my sister's neighborhood, the flooding went past the 500 year flood plain designated by the city. I don't think most people would have been able to fathom that would happen.

[abs]

I am so sorry for everyone struggling with storm aftermath. The destruction was just so horrible and really hard to fathom. I know during Harvey when the forecasts were calling for 30-50 inches of rain most of us were like well that can’t be right. Then it wasn’t. It was more. So sometimes you can hear the message but not really understand it, too. Sadly these events are just becoming more and more frequent.

[pixy0stix]

Sept 30, 2024 7:47:42 GMT -5 orval said:

I think it is hard to imagine what a "catastrophic" event might be for your neighborhood. If you aren't on a river or that close to one, you would likely not think it would reach you. In my sister's neighborhood, the flooding went past the 500 year flood plain designated by the city. I don't think most people would have been able to fathom that would happen.

Right, but the saying, "That's a you problem" (you being general) applies here. The government and various organizations really did try. Coming back and blaming the government because they (general) didn't listen is just dumb.

[orval]

Sept 30, 2024 7:55:18 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Sept 30, 2024 7:47:42 GMT -5 orval said:

I think it is hard to imagine what a "catastrophic" event might be for your neighborhood. If you aren't on a river or that close to one, you would likely not think it would reach you. In my sister's neighborhood, the flooding went past the 500 year flood plain designated by the city. I don't think most people would have been able to fathom that would happen.

Right, but the saying, "That's a you problem" (you being general) applies here. The government and various organizations really did try. Coming back and blaming the government because they (general) didn't listen is just dumb.

I agree to an extent, but that doesn't change the fact the people now have nowhere to live.  Many were actually out of town in my sister's hood.

[scout8]

Sept 30, 2024 7:55:18 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Sept 30, 2024 7:47:42 GMT -5 orval said:

I think it is hard to imagine what a "catastrophic" event might be for your neighborhood. If you aren't on a river or that close to one, you would likely not think it would reach you. In my sister's neighborhood, the flooding went past the 500 year flood plain designated by the city. I don't think most people would have been able to fathom that would happen.

Right, but the saying, "That's a you problem" (you being general) applies here. The government and various organizations really did try. Coming back and blaming the government because they (general) didn't listen is just dumb.

What should people have done? There's only so much you can do to prepare. It doesn't matter how much you've prepared if your house has been washed away. Maybe I'm not understanding your point here, but I feel like you are blaming people for not being ready for this.

[pixy0stix]

Sept 30, 2024 8:09:26 GMT -5 scout8 said:

Sept 30, 2024 7:55:18 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Right, but the saying, "That's a you problem" (you being general) applies here. The government and various organizations really did try. Coming back and blaming the government because they (general) didn't listen is just dumb.

What should people have done? There's only so much you can do to prepare. It doesn't matter how much you've prepared if your house has been washed away. Maybe I'm not understanding your point here, but I feel like you are blaming people for not being ready for this.

Not at all. I'm saying that no one is to blame, but people are trying to pin this on the government for not giving them warning. Which isn't true at all. There's literally nothing that could be done, AND ALSO people were given warning. There's no side to this.

[tacokick]

Sept 30, 2024 7:38:09 GMT -5 JayhawkGirl said:

I came upon this summary of the alerts from NWS there. Knowing how true it became makes it hard to read. The statement from the nws about how they would have so wished to be wrong about this forecast
x.com/minghao_zhou/status/1840274418091577845?s=46

Yes! And on the 26th they were still predicting 4-6 inches of rain in a lot of places that ended up with double, triple and even quadruple that in some areas. I saw warnings for people in Asheville and evacuations there but not for the other towns that washed away. Blowing Rock is about 2 hrs away from Asheville. On the 27th they issued a state of emergency there but it didn’t include evacuation. wataugaonline.com/watauga-county-declaration-of-a-state-of-emergency-for-hurricane-helene/

[neverfstop]

I think it would help if we all (society/government/media) in general came to the realization that going forward, with climate change, we're always going to be in unprecedented territory & disasters are going to be much more (stronger, severe, extreme, unpredictable, frequent, etc.). No place is safe because we've never experienced anything like the fires, hurricanes, flooding, and heat/cold that we've seen before. I think insurance companies are starting to comprehend this & that's why rates everywhere are going u so much. People that live in "high risk" areas have pretty decent emergency preparations or mentality, but it's starting to feel like everybody should have an emergency plan for flooding, extended power outages, and evacuations if necessary.

[pixy0stix]

Sept 30, 2024 8:51:46 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

I think it would help if we all (society/government/media) in general came to the realization that going forward, with climate change, we're always going to be in unprecedented territory & disasters are going to be much more (stronger, severe, extreme, unpredictable, frequent, etc.). No place is safe because we've never experienced anything like the fires, hurricanes, flooding, and heat/cold that we've seen before. I think insurance companies are starting to comprehend this & that's why rates everywhere are going u so much. People that live in "high risk" areas have pretty decent emergency preparations or mentality, but it's starting to feel like everybody should have an emergency plan for flooding, extended power outages, and evacuations if necessary.

Everybody SHOULD have a disaster preparedness plan. There's a whole government agency dedicated to it - www.ready.gov/

But most people don't. 

And before someone tries to come for me again for "victim blaming". When are we supposed to talk about this? It's like gun control and not being able to talk about it after yet another mass shooting. There is some personal responsibility to being prepared, even if it's to hang on long enough for you to be rescued.

[livinitup]

I didn’t want to ask this in the ML thread because the reports of the devastation are too much. Seems appropriate for a C&P discussion.

I think we can agree that all affected residents are going to look for and accept help from FEMA (specifically) and the government in general to recover. Frankly, they’ll demand it, no matter their political affiliation. Do you think this will translate to friends and family to vote for Harris, the party that WANTS good government?
Strong social programs to support Americans in a crisis (food, shelter, health care). Or will it be more - “well, my friends & family need this government program and should get assistance but I’m voting Republican anyway because of low taxes and gay marriage, etc., and I trust the Rs will keep the good programs even though I sorta know they won’t because bootstraps are best”?

[scout8]

Sept 30, 2024 8:25:45 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Sept 30, 2024 8:09:26 GMT -5 scout8 said:

What should people have done? There's only so much you can do to prepare. It doesn't matter how much you've prepared if your house has been washed away. Maybe I'm not understanding your point here, but I feel like you are blaming people for not being ready for this.

Not at all. I'm saying that no one is to blame, but people are trying to pin this on the government for not giving them warning. Which isn't true at all. There's literally nothing that could be done, AND ALSO people were given warning. There's no side to this.

Ahh. Got you. I haven't heard anyone blame the government for lack of warning, but I'm sure some people are. I do think that we should have been evacuated, but I don't blame the government. I'm sure they didn't realize it would be this bad or there would have been evacuation orders. 

I will say that the local government response has not been good. They have briefings twice a day and they don't seem to know anything. It's kind of scary. For example, my mom has been at the hospital and the hospital has been on a generator for electric and without water since Friday. I listened to the briefing yesterday afternoon and they didn't know this! And these are the people in charge. As of yesterday, they weren't able to tell people where to get food or water even though I know some places where it can be found. 

There are some local journalists/DJs from I heart radio that are broadcasting 24/7 and they have way more information than the local briefings. For anyone in WNC, 99.9 or 97.7 is the place to get information. 

[neverfstop]

Sept 30, 2024 9:46:22 GMT -5 livinitup said:

I didn’t want to ask this in the ML thread because the reports of the devastation are too much. Seems appropriate for a C&P discussion.

I think we can agree that all affected residents are going to look for and accept help from FEMA (specifically) and the government in general to recover. Frankly, they’ll demand it, no matter their political affiliation. Do you think this will translate to friends and family to vote for Harris, the party that WANTS good government?
Strong social programs to support Americans in a crisis (food, shelter, health care). Or will it be more - “well, my friends & family need this government program and should get assistance but I’m voting Republican anyway because of low taxes and gay marriage, etc., and I trust the Rs will keep the good programs even though I sorta know they won’t because bootstraps are best”?

It's really a shame the the whole GOP platform is basically shitting on government & then tearing it down, to make it even worse.  If you say "X sucks" and I have a plan to dismantle "X", then it's certainly going to suck even more when the GOP is done gutting it....so they can continue running on "government sucks" and "we're for LESS government".    That's the primary MO behind attacking the department of education & wanting to abolish it.  I think we can all agree that in many places, at the local/state/federal level, government could be doing better.  But the solution isn't to burn it down or elect people who actively disdain actual governing (see Trump, the GOP in Congress).    

Even if people take FEMA money, they will complain about the program or bitch about people who got more or that they weren't 100% covered.  People are voting for the GOP / Trump for basic, simple reasons like patriarchy, misogyny, greed, and racism.  

[circa1978]

livinitup, it's a logical question, but I've never seen it turn out that way, at least in Florida, where yeah, you'd think people would make that connection. I think if FEMA and the Hurricane Center and things went away for real and there was massive loss of life with no recourse, and Republicans were in office, they would have to deal with it, likely by reinstituting the very program they cut and calling it something different and being like, well if we hadn't had to cut that program due to liberal graft, you wouldn't have experienced this so really, we PROTECTED you by cutting it. It is maddening.

[abs]

Sept 30, 2024 9:46:22 GMT -5 livinitup said:

I didn’t want to ask this in the ML thread because the reports of the devastation are too much. Seems appropriate for a C&P discussion.

I think we can agree that all affected residents are going to look for and accept help from FEMA (specifically) and the government in general to recover. Frankly, they’ll demand it, no matter their political affiliation. Do you think this will translate to friends and family to vote for Harris, the party that WANTS good government?
Strong social programs to support Americans in a crisis (food, shelter, health care). Or will it be more - “well, my friends & family need this government program and should get assistance but I’m voting Republican anyway because of low taxes and gay marriage, etc., and I trust the Rs will keep the good programs even though I sorta know they won’t because bootstraps are best”?

Nope. Also when people find out hard it is to actually get FEMA assistance they will blame the Democrats. I mean that’s how it goes down in Texas at least.

[Gato]

livinitup it always feels like people think they government programs THEY need are totally necessary and that they are totally deserving. It’s other people who need to use their bootstraps and other programs that are wasteful. So personally I doubt this will change anyone’s mind.

But here’s my worry. Asheville is pretty liberal and absentee ballots can’t get to them right now. And just in general are people going to be ready to vote in Asheville in a month? It could make a difference in a very tight contest.

[rubytue]

Sept 30, 2024 9:46:22 GMT -5 livinitup said:

I didn’t want to ask this in the ML thread because the reports of the devastation are too much. Seems appropriate for a C&P discussion.

I think we can agree that all affected residents are going to look for and accept help from FEMA (specifically) and the government in general to recover. Frankly, they’ll demand it, no matter their political affiliation. Do you think this will translate to friends and family to vote for Harris, the party that WANTS good government?
Strong social programs to support Americans in a crisis (food, shelter, health care). Or will it be more - “well, my friends & family need this government program and should get assistance but I’m voting Republican anyway because of low taxes and gay marriage, etc., and I trust the Rs will keep the good programs even though I sorta know they won’t because bootstraps are best”?

I saw someone interviewed on the news who was complaining that there weren’t FEMA tents and shelters set up yet. The next words out of his mouth were “every road is closed, we can’t get out.”

I just… can you not connect “we can’t get out” to “and no one can get in”? 

In other news, my aunt and cousin got enough spotty cell service today to say that our family in Boone is safe. 

[missva]

I've not heard anyone directly "blame" anyone for not warning about the storms impact, but the truth is most people are traumatized, in shock, and just verbalizing that. No one could have predicted this b/c it's literally never happened. My family listened to all the reports and still didn't prepare like we should have in retrospect. I got basic supplies, but was not prepared for a flood or to be without power for 5+ days. I'm not sure how to prepare for that impact, and low income families definitely don't have as many planning options. If everyone who in retrospect should have, evacuated, where would they have all gone? We have many hospital workers who can't leave in my neighborhood, families with 3+ young children in their house etc. How were they supposed to prepare for this better? "Regular" disaster plans don't cover this shit. 

[pixy0stix]

To be blunt, there is only one thing that can be blamed, and it's everyone here for contributing to climate change. I include myself in this equation.

This is what storms are going to be from now on. They're not going to be nice with a little bit of rain. The world is angry, and it's going to do it's best to destroy us. Is this the storm/event we keep waiting for for people to wake up and start changing things? I doubt it.

[wildrice]

Sept 30, 2024 12:12:33 GMT -5 Gato said:

livinitup it always feels like people think they government programs THEY need are totally necessary and that they are totally deserving. It’s other people who need to use their bootstraps and other programs that are wasteful. So personally I doubt this will change anyone’s mind.

But here’s my worry. Asheville is pretty liberal and absentee ballots can’t get to them right now. And just in general are people going to be ready to vote in Asheville in a month? It could make a difference in a very tight contest.

Oof, I hadn't thought of that but that's a scary political thought. I hope they figure out some way to have displaced people vote with a provisional ballot elsewhere, but I admit I don't have a lot of confidence that this will be prioritized by those in charge. 

I have been watching a ton of TikTok videos about the disaster and I am seeing a lot of commentary about how the federal government hasn't done enough to help, why hasn't the Biden administration activated FEMA (I assume they have by now), etc. So if anything I am concerned that people are going to be angry at the response by the government vs feeling grateful for the help, at least in the short term. And although I don't doubt that everyone is doing the best they can to help people right now and it's not easy to do, I don't think people are wrong to be angry how slow and inadequate our disaster relief services tend to be. I think democrats are generally better at funding social programs, but there is bipartisan neglect when it comes to funding social programs including FEMA. 

[rubytue]

In terms of activating FEMA, last Thursday or Friday I saw the call for FEMA surge force volunteers.
www.dhs.gov/surge-capacity-force.

edit: see also www.fema.gov/disaster/current/hurricane-helene#news

[penguingrrl]

Sept 30, 2024 12:12:33 GMT -5 Gato said:

livinitup it always feels like people think they government programs THEY need are totally necessary and that they are totally deserving. It’s other people who need to use their bootstraps and other programs that are wasteful. So personally I doubt this will change anyone’s mind.

But here’s my worry. Asheville is pretty liberal and absentee ballots can’t get to them right now. And just in general are people going to be ready to vote in Asheville in a month? It could make a difference in a very tight contest.

I’m hopeful they’ll be able to sort that out. The 2012 election was a week after Sandy and they managed to get voting sorted out. While I know this storm was far more destructive there’s also a month instead of only a week to figure it out. I would guess that’s already being arranged.

[statgirl]

[mention]gatogirl [/mention] Michael hit October 10, 2018 and Election Day was November 6. We had a lot of mass election sites with early voting, absentee ballots that were rushed by mail, and ended up with good turnout for the area. Election officials will have to be creative, but it can be done.

[neverfstop]

Is this a good time to remember Project 2025 wants to cut FEMA? and SBA loans

www.americanprogress.org/article/project-2025-proposes-eliminating-aid-for-families-and-businesses-rebuilding-after-storms/

www.theparadiseprogressive.com/blog-the-paradise-progressive/project-2025-remake-of-fema-would-hit-communities-hard-after-disasters

[neverfstop]

These seems relevant too..

http://instagram.com/p/DAjWXfvADes

[rubytue]

We didn’t have an annual shutdown thread, but if you weren’t following, congress passed a CR through Dec 20 Wednesday night. Otherwise, today would have been it. Imagine what would have happened without government funding Oct 1.

[neverfstop]

GiFt wapo.st/3XP4oVC

Why Helene’s floods caught North Carolina off guard
Before this scenic, rustic Great Smoky Mountain refuge turned into a trap few residents saw coming, there were signs of Hurricane Helene’s unthinkable potential.

A few lines...

The air carried higher levels of Gulf moisture than meteorologists had ever seen — something scientists have warned will come with human-caused climate change. Warmer air is capable of holding more moisture, raising potential for heavier downpours.
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Yet many said the torrential rains and flash floods — which have claimed an untold number of lives — caught them unprepared, and they had little chance for escape even if they had tried.
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According to data obtained by The Washington Post, that happened at 6:15 a.m. Friday, when the county sent its first warning via wireless emergency alerts to cellphones: “High water can cause loss of life and property. MOVE to high ground, AWAY from water, do not delay.”

The county sent five similar alerts that day, warning of high waters and of dams at critical levels. None were in Spanish. About 7 percent of Buncombe County’s residents — 19,100 people — are Hispanic or Latino.