Hurricane Milton

[turboteal]

Currently a tropical storm in the SW gulf of Mexico, but looks like it will be a potentially major hurricane and hit Florida's west coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday. As a Houstonian I am always checking this website throughout the summer: theeyewall.com/

This could be really rough for the Tampa/St. Pete area, especially since they're barely recovering from Helene.

[neverfstop]

Yes, I saw this several places last night & my first thought was all the discussion we had about Helene that people didn't have warning. I get hat Florida is uniquely tough to evacuate because it's a peninsula & there's also so much uncertainty this far out.

[Deleted]

This type of trajectory also has a high likelihood of going out into the Atlantic, picking up steam, and making landfall again on the eastern seaboard.

Aside from the tremendous loss of life and property from recent storms, as a N.C. homeowner I’m also getting very nervous about the insurance industry. We saw what happened in FL when we lived there, and our insurance rates on our N.C. home skyrocketed BEFORE all of these storms hit (went up 65% in one year)….its only going to get worse, especially if companies become insolvent like happened in FL.

[sju]

The Tampa area is already in trouble. The area experiences floods with significant afternoon rain, add Helene, today’s system, and the upcoming storm, and we will see years of recovery. The evacuation efforts along I-4 between Tampa and Orlando will be like nothing we have seen in recent years. I-4 is busy at all times so if I lived in that area and had the resources, I would not wait and leave asap. 

@villainv , agree. Insurance skyrocketed across the state in recent years so this is going to cause more people not to be able to afford living anywhere. And of course Ronny has been busy picking up fights with Disney, banning books, etc.

[dancingirl21]

I follow dr.beachgem10 on instagram. She lives in the St. Pete area and their house has flooded 3 times in 4 years. They are in the permitting process to have their house raised. She’s a wealth of information, in a very calm succinct manner. She’s a Peds ER doctor, so familiar with calm in a crisis.

[gretchenindisguise]

Oct 6, 2024 9:03:56 GMT -5 dancingirl21 said:

I follow dr.beachgem10 on instagram. She lives in the St. Pete area and their house has flooded 3 times in 4 years. They are in the permitting process to have their house raised. She’s a wealth of information, in a very calm succinct manner. She’s a Peds ER doctor, so familiar with calm in a crisis.

She is on the hospital's disaster preparedness team too. I've been following her for years and love her.

I feel so badly for her that the plans to raise the house got stuck in permitting before they were hit again with another flood. And possibly another another one.

[dancingirl21]

Oct 6, 2024 9:23:43 GMT -5 gretchenindisguise said:

Oct 6, 2024 9:03:56 GMT -5 dancingirl21 said:

I follow dr.beachgem10 on instagram. She lives in the St. Pete area and their house has flooded 3 times in 4 years. They are in the permitting process to have their house raised. She’s a wealth of information, in a very calm succinct manner. She’s a Peds ER doctor, so familiar with calm in a crisis.

She is on the hospital's disaster preparedness team too. I've been following her for years and love her.

I feel so badly for her that the plans to raise the house got stuck in permitting before they were hit again with another flood. And possibly another another one.

Me too! Recently she said they will be out of their house for a year. So I’m thinking they don’t plan to go back until it’s raised. Which, I don’t blame them, but how awful. She’s so calm about all of it.

[tiki]

My parents (inland of Tampa so not coastal, but still likely to get a direct hit and their home is not sturdy) have decided to evacuate. My mom is my dad's around-the-clock caregiver as he is incontinent and can't stand/walk. She just managed to get him into the car last week for the first time all year. She has a hoyer lift she can bring, but I still have no idea how she will manage him in a hotel.

Update: she can't lift the hoyer to get it into the car.  I'm worried she's going to have a breakdown, stay, and just have to hope they don't lose their roof. 

[AAM2012]

This looks horrible for Tampa/St. Pete, Ft. Myers, Naples and all the barrier islands.

[spindle92]

My bestie has a house right on the water on siesta key. She is never worried but this one has her concerned.

[heygrey]

My 87 year old uncle lives inland Tampa in a mobile home seniors community. They did okay with Helene (subjective - the community suffered damage, but his house was okay), but my mom told him to get his ass on a plane today because we’re not waiting and hoping he survives Milton. He’s headed to his daughter’s house in Tucson, AZ.

[rubytue]

FIL emailed us the other day that they are expecting 30 inches of rain near ft myers. If I prayed, I’d be sending them to everyone in the path. 

Oct 6, 2024 6:34:29 GMT -5 @villainv said:

This type of trajectory also has a high likelihood of going out into the Atlantic, picking up steam, and making landfall again on the eastern seaboard.

Sorry for being selfishly me. Anyone recall typical timing here? Like it’ll be 3ish days later, right? We are leaving for Iceland Wednesday and my nephew is staying here with the dog. I should probably prepare an “open in case of hurricane” set of instructions? Just in case. Not super worried, it’s typically just rain here, but after losing water for 3 days after isabel, I always fill bathtubs.

[mofongo]

Oct 6, 2024 16:34:46 GMT -5 rubytue said:

FIL emailed us the other day that they are expecting 30 inches of rain near ft myers. If I prayed, I’d be sending them to everyone in the path. 

Oct 6, 2024 6:34:29 GMT -5 @villainv said:

This type of trajectory also has a high likelihood of going out into the Atlantic, picking up steam, and making landfall again on the eastern seaboard.

Sorry for being selfishly me. Anyone recall typical timing here? Like it’ll be 3ish days later, right? We are leaving for Iceland Wednesday and my nephew is staying here with the dog. I should probably prepare an “open in case of hurricane” set of instructions? Just in case. Not super worried, it’s typically just rain here, but after losing water for 3 days after isabel, I always fill bathtubs.

It looks to be heading out straight over the Atlantic. Keep an eye on it, but don't worry yet.

[penguingrrl]

Oct 6, 2024 16:34:46 GMT -5 rubytue said:

FIL emailed us the other day that they are expecting 30 inches of rain near ft myers. If I prayed, I’d be sending them to everyone in the path. 

Oct 6, 2024 6:34:29 GMT -5 @villainv said:

This type of trajectory also has a high likelihood of going out into the Atlantic, picking up steam, and making landfall again on the eastern seaboard.

Sorry for being selfishly me. Anyone recall typical timing here? Like it’ll be 3ish days later, right? We are leaving for Iceland Wednesday and my nephew is staying here with the dog. I should probably prepare an “open in case of hurricane” set of instructions? Just in case. Not super worried, it’s typically just rain here, but after losing water for 3 days after isabel, I always fill bathtubs.

The spaghetti models all seem to agree that this one will go straight out to sea instead of curving up the coastline.

[pixy0stix]

I'm just catching up on the news. Yet another Cat 4 hurricane? My God.

[neverfstop]

www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/07/tampa-bay-flood-risk/

Since 2010, the Gulf of Mexico has experienced twice the global average rate of sea level rise, according to a Washington Post analysis. Along the Tampa Bay coast, the sea is now nearly five inches higher than it was back then, with the result that roads are increasingly being flooded by the tides and insurance companies are raising rates or leaving flood-prone areas.
Amount of high tide inundation under Category 5 storm surge (red end is21+')

Attachments:

[neverfstop]

still looking bad for Tampa..

[Velar Fricative]

I’m looking at these models and it just makes clear how difficult evacuation will be for so many people. Like, the entire peninsula is threatened and there’s only so many places people can go.

I hope everyone who can evacuate does so, and those who can’t remain safe.

And I just saw on my social media feed that an acquaintance just flew into Orlando last night for a family vacation this week. Yes, they are aware of what’s happening. I would imagine vacation packages can be changed by now?

[underwaterrhymes]

My mom and sister and her family live in the Tampa area. Neither plan to evacuate. They are far enough away from the bay that they aren’t worried about surge, but I reminded my mom if she doesn’t leave today, she won’t be able to later. I-4 is a hot mess on a good day and 75 isn’t much better, so evacuation is going to be a nightmare.

[joy]

Oct 6, 2024 16:34:46 GMT -5 rubytue said:

FIL emailed us the other day that they are expecting 30 inches of rain near ft myers. If I prayed, I’d be sending them to everyone in the path. 

Oct 6, 2024 6:34:29 GMT -5 @villainv said:

This type of trajectory also has a high likelihood of going out into the Atlantic, picking up steam, and making landfall again on the eastern seaboard.

Sorry for being selfishly me. Anyone recall typical timing here? Like it’ll be 3ish days later, right? We are leaving for Iceland Wednesday and my nephew is staying here with the dog. I should probably prepare an “open in case of hurricane” set of instructions? Just in case. Not super worried, it’s typically just rain here, but after losing water for 3 days after isabel, I always fill bathtubs.

You can see all the tracks for all the storms here: nhc.noaa.gov

[neverfstop]

Per CNN ( but does look south of Tampa, which is better than north)


Milton has exploded in strength in the Gulf of Mexico and is now a Category 3 major hurricane packing sustained winds of 120 mph with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane is forecast to reach at least Category 4 strength early this week as it tracks east across the Gulf toward Florida.

[noodleoo]

Ugh my parents live in Central FL and they never take the hurricanes seriously because they are not near the coast. This appears to be tracking directly over them and the wind could be bad. I need to call them and hope I can convince them to make some preparations in case they lose power at least.

[tiki]

noodleoo, where are they? My parents are nearish Zephyrhills.

[AAM2012]

Beyond the flooding there is so much debris out on the roadway that will quickly become flying objects …I really hope people are leaving.

[spindle92]

Oct 7, 2024 9:07:43 GMT -5 AAM2012 said:

Beyond the flooding there is so much debris out on the roadway that will quickly become flying objects …I really hope people are leaving.

That is what my friend was saying. People have stuff piled up from the first cleanup and that stuff is going to go airborne. It's just terrifying.

[Gato]

It has already jumped to a Cat 5, which is insane. With warmer waters, hurricanes have much more fuel than they used to and this crazy intensification is going to happen more and more often.

The forecast is that wind shear will disrupt it in the middle of the Gulf, so by the time it hits land the winds might be more like Cat 3. It will still be moving a ton of water though.

If anyone is interested, I always follow Yale Climate Connection’s Jeff Masters’s blog comment section for the latest chatter and Levi Cowan on tropicaltidbits.com for a good, in-depth daily update.

[noodleoo]

Oct 7, 2024 9:00:35 GMT -5 tiki said:

noodleoo, where are they? My parents are nearish Zephyrhills.

They're near Sanford. What are your parents doing to prepare? I don’t know if mine should consider leaving or not, though I know they won’t.

[tiki]

Oct 7, 2024 10:50:46 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

They're near Sanford. What are your parents doing to prepare? I don’t know if mine should consider leaving or not, though I know they won’t.

The problem is my dad is medically fragile, so he can't hide in a closet or even easily switch rooms if a window breaks, and ambulances won't come if the roads are flooded. My mom has stubbornly refused to hire in-home care help because it's expensive, so now she's stuck trying to get everything (including my dad) into the car herself.  It's increasingly sounding like she can't physically do it and they'll end up staying.

They have flats of water bottles all the time anyway because they're boomers, but they will need to hope their manufactured home remains intact and they have enough non-perishable food for a few days afterward. I will probably try to fly in as soon after the storm as I can to assess the situation and help with cleanup. 

[noodleoo]

tiki, ugh I’m sorry, that sounds really scary. Yeah my parents are usually pretty well stocked with non-perishables and water. I’m hoping the storm weakens as they are predicting and they can hunker down and ride it out. They’ve been in FL 18 years so they always tell me I worry too much, but it makes me nervous. I hope everyone stays safe.

[Velar Fricative]

I don’t think Cat 5 was expected at all? So that’s really scary even if it loses strength.