Who is going to win the US election in November?

[sonrisa]

Who do you feel in your gut is going to win?

[fernweh]

I am 100% confident Kamala will win the popular vote and about 75% confident she will win the electoral vote. What makes me very nervous is Trump with his stolen SCOTUS overturning it.

[penguingrrl]

Oct 13, 2024 17:38:16 GMT -5 fernweh said:

I am 100% confident Kamala will win the popular vote and about 75% confident she will win the electoral vote. What makes me very nervous is Trump with his stolen SCOTUS overturning it.

100% agreed. I have no doubt that the popular vote will be a landslide, I just don’t trust that the will of the people will be what wins the day.

[erbear]

I think Harris wins the popular vote by 10+ million votes, but I think there's a decent chance she loses the electoral vote because it sucks.

[4speedy]

If the election were held today, Harris.

But I also think another made up immigration story close to the election, or the Middle East crisis, or the aftermath of both hurricanes or really anything the R’s choose to lie about and escalate close to the election could do her in. It feels like Harris needs to be vigilant about all of their lies and cheating so nothing escalates.

[heygrey]

I'm feeling confident that Harris will win. I think Trump is going to be really ugly about it, but I am looking ahead to late January and a whole different vibe in the country.

[underwaterrhymes]

I think Harris will win, but I’m still terribly anxious because while I know Harris will win the popular vote and am fairly confident she will also gain the EC votes, there is a lot that can happen in three weeks to disrupt the voting process. I’m very concerned about MAGA nutjobs attempting to cause harm, preventing people from accessing the polls, and ultimately overthrowing the government.

[babsbunny]

DH says Harris has to be up by 3 points to win, so he says she will lose. Boo.

His source: the internets

[mcsangel2]

In the last couple of weeks, it really looks to me like it’s trending to a Trump win. I don’t know how. I hope I’m wrong.

[aurora]

I voted Harris because I can't really separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen. And I don't want to be depressed for the next 3 weeks.

That said, I am not nearly as confident about this as I was about Clinton winning in mid-October, 2016.

(My rational mind knows that it is going to be extremely close and may get very ugly.)

[noodleoo]

Oct 13, 2024 23:11:31 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

In the last couple of weeks, it really looks to me like it’s trending to a Trump win. I don’t know how. I hope I’m wrong.

Based on the political analyst I follow (Jay Kuo), Republican outlets are flooding the news with biased polls to make the race look closer than it is. That way Trump can claim he won even if he doesn’t and contest the election just like he did last time.

Here’s a link to his write up in FB about it.

www.facebook.com/share/p/kqYcXdgDpUnq4GJV/?mibextid=WC7FNe

[heat40]

I think Harris will win, but I am nervous. I'm hoping to get a rush of the same energy we got when she became top of the ticket. I know there is a lot of work happening on the ground and behind the scenes, but I want to "feel" the energy again. I caught myself thinking "again?" when she went to PA recently. I keep reminding myself that they have internal data that must be telling them something we aren't seeing.

[lostrn]

I want Harris to win, desperately want her to win. But I see so much on social media from actual real people (vs bots) and they are either outright supporting Trump or now they doubt Harris because of XYZ. I have a former coworker who lives in Iowa and is a big Harris supporter but she has so many Trump supporters on her Facebook. A recent post of hers had one woman ( I think her sister or cousin) responding something to the effect of "well I wasn't sure about Harris but after the horrible hurricane response I just can't vote for her" um, excuse me? And of course she can't back up what's so horrible, she's just falling for the noise. I'm just afraid there are a lot of people like her out there.

[basilosaurus]

If you want to have any optimism, don't watch John Oliver. His explanation of georgia insane bullshit is extremely disheartening.

[sent]

I wrote a whole response with points that just make too much sense on why Harris should be the choice for most reasonable people and all women, but deleted it. I remembered that people's budgets have really been hit by increased costs at the grocery store and everywhere else and it just made my "of course Harris" response too depressing to read. The general public easily could fall for the "times were better under Trump" and "close the borders" nonsense while they forget everything else that has not been better since 2016.

[basilosaurus]

Oct 14, 2024 0:18:16 GMT -5 sent said:

I wrote a whole response with points that just make too much sense on why Harris should be the choice for most reasonable people and all women, but deleted it. I remembered that people's budgets have really been hit by increased costs at the grocery store and everywhere else and it just made my "of course Harris" response too depressing to read. The general public easily could fall for the "times were better under Trump" and "close the borders" nonsense while they forget everything else that has not been better since 2016.

Not to mention all the job growth and lower inflation rate. They're feeling the hurt not because of Biden's economy but because of Trump policy, billionaire tax breaks, decreased regulation that has led directly to dramatically increased rents...

But, no, it's all Kamala's fault. They're not even blaming Biden anymore, although sometimes they still blame Obama. It would be inifitely worse under a 2nd drumpf

[wanderingback]

Oct 13, 2024 23:42:11 GMT -5 lostrn said:

I want Harris to win, desperately want her to win. But I see so much on social media from actual real people (vs bots) and they are either outright supporting Trump or now they doubt Harris because of XYZ. I have a former coworker who lives in Iowa and is a big Harris supporter but she has so many Trump supporters on her Facebook. A recent post of hers had one woman ( I think her sister or cousin) responding something to the effect of "well I wasn't sure about Harris but after the horrible hurricane response I just can't vote for her" um, excuse me? And of course she can't back up what's so horrible, she's just falling for the noise. I'm just afraid there are a lot of people like her out there.

I’m hoping people like this just don’t vote, ugh.
I really hope that that’s what we see.
I’m overall an optimistic person in general but it does seem like democrats are more motivated to vote than republicans. Blocking people’s access to vote is maddening so I really hope democrats can overcome any obstacles.

[morecoffeeplease]

538 had me confident of a Harris win last week and now I’m not and voted that Trump will win.

[jinkies]

I live in a swing county of a swing state. I don't feel great about this. I really have trouble trusting my own reality sometimes when otherwise reasonable people come out vocally in support of Trump. I can't understand how anyone could listen to him and think he sounds like the better candidate, but here we are.

I read something about how in 2016, the silent voters were for Trump bc they were embarrassed. But in 2024 the silent voters are for Harris who don't want to engage the crazy trump folks.

I hope that's true, but I voted Trump in the poll.

[underwaterrhymes]

If we vote, we win.

Make sure you are doing everything you can in the next few weeks to help get out the vote.

[Jalapeñomel]

If you are on TikTok, follow this man:

www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8868Y3n/

[basilosaurus]

Oct 14, 2024 7:15:00 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

If we vote, we win.

Make sure you are doing everything you can in the next few weeks to help get out the vote.

Count me as having cast one of those obviously fraudulent overseas votes. I'm also encouraging other fraudsters on how to get their ballots in and helping them research their options

[underwaterrhymes]

Oct 14, 2024 7:41:03 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

If you are on TikTok, follow this man:

www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8868Y3n/

This link isn’t working for me.

[fortnightlily]

I still just have a hard time believing that Trump has gained any voters over last time, whereas I think he's definitely lost some or that some who voted for him last time will just sit it out. But Harris winning will still hinge on turnout.

[fernweh]

Oct 14, 2024 8:20:07 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I still just have a hard time believing that Trump has gained any voters over last time, whereas I think he's definitely lost some or that some who voted for him last time will just sit it out. But Harris winning will still hinge on turnout.

H has a nephew who is very much voting for Trump who wasn’t old enough to vote in 2020. He isn’t the only one. While I do think Harris will pick up more of the young voters, Trump will get some of the Andrew Tate fans.

[stuffandthings]

In my heart I think Harris will win (although I'm very nervous about Trump) but I thought Clinton would win in 2016 despite being very nervous about Trump, so I just don't trust myself to know these things anymore.

[abs]

Oct 14, 2024 8:20:07 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I still just have a hard time believing that Trump has gained any voters over last time, whereas I think he's definitely lost some or that some who voted for him last time will just sit it out. But Harris winning will still hinge on turnout.

This is where I am. I do know plenty of people that voted for him before that aren’t this time. Abortion rights and education seem to be the biggest drivers. I don’t know anyone that didn’t vote for him before that will now. It’s all still a lot though and I don’t even know.

[stuffandthings]

If it helps--my husband told me last night that he thinks my SIL, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, is staying home this year. She is an anti-immigrant bigot but she's also pro-choice, so she was FLABBERGASTED when Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022. LOL for days that she didn't see that coming a mile away, but I'll take whatever Trump disillusionment I can get.

I told him that if she presents me with evidence that she didn't vote for Trump this time around, I will consider speaking to her again in November.

[Jalapeñomel]

Oct 14, 2024 7:54:46 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Oct 14, 2024 7:41:03 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

If you are on TikTok, follow this man:

www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8868Y3n/

This link isn’t working for me.

Try this: www.tiktok.com/@jamellebouie?_t=8qXRgKh9DGZ&_r=1

His name is Jamelle Bouie

[underwaterrhymes]

Oct 14, 2024 8:43:20 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Oct 14, 2024 7:54:46 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

This link isn’t working for me.

Try this: www.tiktok.com/@jamellebouie?_t=8qXRgKh9DGZ&_r=1

His name is Jamelle Bouie

Thank you!