Who is going to win the US election in November?

[StrawberryBlondie]

Harris, but not complacent about it.

[fortnightlily]

I'm also curious how Trump voters feel about JD Vance, because if Trump were to win I think there's a high likelihood he would deteriorate enough over 4 years to get the 25th Amendment invoked.

[stuffandthings]

Oct 14, 2024 8:58:08 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I'm also curious how Trump voters feel about JD Vance, because if Trump were to win I think there's a high likelihood he would deteriorate enough over 4 years to get the 25th Amendment invoked.

I think it's more likely he'd die of natural causes in his term. The GOP would be 100% fine with him being incapacitated as long as they could keep it hushed up. If they didn't invoke the 25th the last term, they won't do it now.

[underwaterrhymes]

Also, if you think your vote doesn’t matter, vote for her anyway. If you don’t love everything about Harris, vote for her anyway. We MUST win this election and we MUST keep the Senate and hopefully flip the House.

Turning out is critical. In 2016, only 59% of the voting eligible public (nearly 231 million) turned out to vote. In 2020, it was 66.6% (nearly 8 million more people than in 2016).

In both years, millions more people voted for Clinton and Biden, but because the turnout was so much greater in 2020, we snagged the electoral college too. Your vote absolutely matters and even in states where we may not stand a chance at snagging the EC vote, those down ballot races and initiatives on the ballot are vital.

So many people didn’t believe us when we said they were coming for abortion. Well, look what happened. They dismantled it and women are dying because of it. The next President will be able to put more people on the Supreme Court, and if it’s Trump, you can say goodbye to ever knowing a liberal court in our lifetimes. Regardless of whether you believe they will take away our democracy, believe this: the GOP is coming for every other freedom we have gained - from marriage equality to healthcare.

My anxiety is sky high too, but now is the time to ACT. We have got to pull this out.

[Michelle]

I cannot put anything out to the world like a vote in the poll for Trump, but i'm not counting my chickens before they hatch again.

[cville]

Not putting any vibes out there that aren't 100% pro-Kamala.

[ellipses84]

I’ll maintain I think Harris will win, just like I think Biden would have won. I think it will be close via the electoral college and a landslide in the popular vote.

There’s no way the momentum and excitement over Harris doesn’t mean something. I’m seeing way more Republicans, white men, unions, other groups, etc. publicly support her that did not even do that for Biden in 2020. There’s way more Dem grass roots efforts and ground support than 2020. The demographics have changed to favor Dems even more. RvW on the ballot has shown results at the ballot box in past state elections that polling has not reflected.

I know there’s danger of being in an online silo and underestimating the racism and misogyny, but I also think a lot of what we are seeing online is the very loud 20-30% of MAGA that is left, plus trolls and bots. Mainstream media is being overly critical of Harris and normalizing 🍊which impacts those who watch the news, aka Boomers, not Millenials and GenZ that make up a larger combined voting block now. I know there’s some entitled Boomers in there that want deny 🍊 will cut their Medicare and rich ones who think he’ll be better for the economy and maybe they are part of that or an extra 5-10%, but there’s also tons who are horrified about it and RvW. His campaign is in dissarray and their strategy is not good. If it were not for the Elon $$$ they’d be in much worse shape, but I don’t think that’s going well for either of them or their companies. They are trying to present an illusion to the public.

For GenX and younger, I think we are going to see really low voter turnout for men who aren’t voting for Harris. Even if they argue in person or online about it, doesn’t mean they’ll make the effort to register and vote in a swing state. Kind of like the notes to conservative women, that you don’t need to vote like your husband, I think there are some split households where women are more politically minded and if they can’t convince their husbands to vote Harris, they just won’t remind them to vote, and they probably won’t turnout (just like they won’t make that Dr appt or do whatever else unless their wife reminds them) because this election is not as important to them as it’s to women. 🍊 has lost voters at several points through the last few years and if those people can’t bring themselves to vote for Harris they’ll vote third party or not at all.

[ellipses84]

Oct 14, 2024 8:58:08 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I'm also curious how Trump voters feel about JD Vance, because if Trump were to win I think there's a high likelihood he would deteriorate enough over 4 years to get the 25th Amendment invoked.

After the debate with his smooth lying, I can really see the similarities of JD and Usha to Fred and Serena from The Handmaids Tale. They could totally be one of those couples in Gilead. Like, they didn’t even really believe in all that but they went along with it for the power and the promise of this future.

[sent]

ellipses84 , after listening to Call Her Daddy, I want to optimistically think there are many middle class and poor white women in those states deeply impacted by RvW who realize it could happen to them. That silently voting for Trump in 2016 is how they lost their rights to lots of medical care for women, not just abortion care. OB/GYNs are leaving hostile states and I don't blame the doctors. But at the same time, those women are looking at a weekly $300 grocery bill at Walmart for a family of 4 or if gas prices jump up again between now and Election Day. That's where my optimism ends because people's memories are short.

[sonrisa]

Oct 14, 2024 11:07:18 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

Oct 14, 2024 8:58:08 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

I'm also curious how Trump voters feel about JD Vance, because if Trump were to win I think there's a high likelihood he would deteriorate enough over 4 years to get the 25th Amendment invoked.

After the debate with his smooth lying, I can really see the similarities of JD and Usha to Fred and Serena from The Handmaids Tale. They could totally be one of those couples in Gilead. Like, they didn’t even really believe in all that but they went along with it for the power and the promise of this future.

In Handmaid's Tale they took care of the kids they stole. Never forget Trump's family separation policies and how they showed we can be worse than Gilead. 

[lilac05]

This is a XP from the Malcolm Gladwell post, but this keeps going through my head. I need to hear it over and over, and from reading this post, I think I’m not alone. It’s from a campaign speech from Jeff Jackson, NC Congressman:

“We want you in the right head space. When we get through this, to seize this moment we have to broaden the appeal, to show people who were on the fence but chose to support us that they were right to trust us with their vote. ... I want us all to be on the right page with that, because I know how much outrage drives the current energy in politics, but we're going to have an opportunity to emotionally reset. Which means we have to start doing that now. And for people whose anxiety levels are super high? If you get home tomorrow and some poll comes out
and it spikes your anxiety, and you just can't handle it, I want you to give your anxiety to me. I will carry it for you, because I don't have anxiety, I have confidence. This isn't going to be the most important election of our lifetimes; it's going to be the best election of our lifetimes. Once we get through it, y'all, it's going to feel wonderful."

We just have to get to it and through it…pushing for the voter turnout to be high. I have every faith that if people turnout, Harris will win. I actually don’t think that a landslide electoral college victory is out of the question. It was Georgia in 2020…who will it be in 2024? No state is out of the question, in my mind. (Though there are a handful that are highly, highly unlikely.)

I’ve been wearing my rose colored glasses while working hard since she announced, and I’m going to keep them on and keep it up until Nov 5th.

[dreamcrisp1]

Based on what I see on TikTok, it seems so Trump heavy and I hope, hope, hope it’s wrong.

[atlas]

Oct 14, 2024 9:29:36 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Also, if you think your vote doesn’t matter, vote for her anyway. If you don’t love everything about Harris, vote for her anyway. We MUST win this election and we MUST keep the Senate and hopefully flip the House.

I think this is the biggest thing for me. I am definitely voting for Harris, but I follow a lot of subreddits that are admonishing voting for her at all because she isn't the best choice.

It makes me very nervous.

[underwaterrhymes]

Oct 14, 2024 12:16:42 GMT -5 atlas said:

Oct 14, 2024 9:29:36 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Also, if you think your vote doesn’t matter, vote for her anyway. If you don’t love everything about Harris, vote for her anyway. We MUST win this election and we MUST keep the Senate and hopefully flip the House.

I think this is the biggest thing for me. I am definitely voting for Harris, but I follow a lot of subreddits that are admonishing voting for her at all because she isn't the best choice.

It makes me very nervous.

These are likely Russian bots or the GOP trying to suppress the Democratic vote. Don’t listen to them. All gas, no brakes.

[lilac05]

Oct 14, 2024 12:16:42 GMT -5 atlas said:

Oct 14, 2024 9:29:36 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Also, if you think your vote doesn’t matter, vote for her anyway. If you don’t love everything about Harris, vote for her anyway. We MUST win this election and we MUST keep the Senate and hopefully flip the House.

I think this is the biggest thing for me. I am definitely voting for Harris, but I follow a lot of subreddits that are admonishing voting for her at all because she isn't the best choice.

It makes me very nervous.

This so frustrating to me. Best = Best of TWO. January 2025, we ARE going to have a new President. It will either be Trump or it will be Harris. Period.

But to help these people get there, I think we need to be open and honest when Harris may not have been someone’s first choice, if we had more time. That’s absolutely OK! And I think those people need to get a little louder. Harris wouldn’t have been my choice…but she’s absolutely my choice now! She’s imperfect, just like anyone who could run. The only person who I will absolutely agree with 100% of the time is myself…and even that isn’t likely.

But a vote for Harris is the only thing between us and another 4 years of Trump.

[underwaterrhymes]

I really think the people who are reluctant to vote for Harris are thinking more about what may be very valid reasons for not supporting someone in a normal year.

These are not normal times. Trump is vocalizing Nazi-esque sentiments.

If he wins, we aren’t just getting a Trump presidency; we will get decades upon decades of a conservative Supreme Court. We will see marriage equality rolled back and likely Brown vs the Board of Education thrown to the States.

They will round up legal immigrants along with illegal immigrants and throw them out of the country. Women will continue to lose their lives because they will outlaw abortion entirely.

They will make it extremely hard to vote. They will reinstate preexisting conditions, making it impossible for some to get healthcare.

They will privatize NOAA, meaning people won’t have reliable or accurate information on hurricanes and other natural disasters.

They will cut social security and Medicare and raise the retirement age.

This is not just Handmaid’s Tale fiction. This is what they plan to do and these are just some of the things we know about.

[acuore]

Sadly, I think Trump. Then again, I was firmly convinced Clinton would win in 2016, so my record isn’t exactly great. 

[fernweh]

I follow this lady on instagram. She posted a video about why it feels like we are losing.

www.instagram.com/reel/DBICdZ3C92P/?igsh=MWcxY3FwNXUxMWd6ZQ==

[lilac05]

Oct 14, 2024 21:35:19 GMT -5 fernweh said:

I follow this lady on instagram. She posted a video about why it feels like we are losing.

www.instagram.com/reel/DBICdZ3C92P/?igsh=MWcxY3FwNXUxMWd6ZQ==

I had that link copied and was literally just coming to post it. I’m enjoying reading her new book so far.

I need to add this to the quote from Jeff Jackson and keep reading them daily from now until Nov 5.

[elleblue]

Oct 14, 2024 21:52:40 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Oct 14, 2024 21:35:19 GMT -5 fernweh said:

I follow this lady on instagram. She posted a video about why it feels like we are losing.

www.instagram.com/reel/DBICdZ3C92P/?igsh=MWcxY3FwNXUxMWd6ZQ==

I had that link copied and was literally just coming to post it. I’m enjoying reading her new book so far.

I need to add this to the quote from Jeff Jackson and keep reading them daily from now until Nov 5.

I wanted to say thank you for that Jeff Jackson quote, I will also be reading it regularly for the next three+ weeks. I think we can do it, but 2016 left it's mark for sure.

[sparkythelawyer]

I've given up any notion of hope a long time ago, but I keep my fingers crossed that we're nearing the end of this war and that we're not living at the beginning of the next chapter of this nightmare.  And I'm also getting passports ready as my daughter will be entering her teens in this administration

[basilosaurus]

Jeff tiedrich on bs polls. I always love his explicitve laden rants, but this one especially is good.

www.jefftiedrich.com/p/the-polls-and-the-press-want-you

[ellipses84]

I’m going to drop this here. It’s a survey of the same women taken a few months ago vs September. Women, including white women and former 🍊 voters, are moving towards Harris in significant numbers.

www.kff.org/2024-survey-of-women-voters-dashboard/?entry=key-findings-abortion-as-an-election-issue

[ellipses84]

I heard an anecdote from a GenZ person who got polled (which we hardly ever hear about). They signed up for a 🍊 rally, basically to take a ticket and not go so it would be empty (there’s an online movement to do this) so now they are getting emails, calls and texts for the 🍊 campaign. They got a poll call that was supposed to be by an unbiased poll company and the questions started out ok, like who do you think would implement this policy or that policy better? But the questions started getting more biased and vague, like Who do you think would be better at draining the swamp? The person asked, What does that mean? and the pollster couldn’t explain and just said, we don’t choose the questions. Drain the swamp was such a 2016 tagline I think it’s possible an 18-24 year old hasn’t head that and doesn’t even really know what that means out of context.

I don’t remember if it was 2016 or 2020 but I remember seeing an 🍊 email survey at some point and it was totally like that, really biased questions that would lead to skewed survey results.

[Susie]

Popular vote will go to Harris, hands down.  It won't really be close.

EC, I'm less confident about.  I want too badly for it to be her, to think straight, and I don't have any particularly good insights.

[lilac05]

I'm losing my optimism. My algorithm feeds me all kinds of stuff that makes me think Harris has got this...but when I look outside of that, I get nervous. I read something about people inside the Harris campaign becoming more concerned about the Blue Wall states, and it makes me sick to my stomach. But then again, I wonder if they're not doing some kind of reverse psychology thing to make sure we don't get complacent like many people think happened in 2016.

[stuffandthings]

Oct 22, 2024 13:36:19 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

I'm losing my optimism. My algorithm feeds me all kinds of stuff that makes me think Harris has got this...but when I look outside of that, I get nervous. I read something about people inside the Harris campaign becoming more concerned about the Blue Wall states, and it makes me sick to my stomach. But then again, I wonder if they're not doing some kind of reverse psychology thing to make sure we don't get complacent like many people think happened in 2016.

I’m actually going the opposite way! Last week I was freaked out but this week the trend lines look better for us.

[lilac05]

Oct 22, 2024 13:43:01 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

Oct 22, 2024 13:36:19 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

I'm losing my optimism. My algorithm feeds me all kinds of stuff that makes me think Harris has got this...but when I look outside of that, I get nervous. I read something about people inside the Harris campaign becoming more concerned about the Blue Wall states, and it makes me sick to my stomach. But then again, I wonder if they're not doing some kind of reverse psychology thing to make sure we don't get complacent like many people think happened in 2016.

I’m actually going the opposite way! Last week I was freaked out but this week the trend lines look better for us.

Interesting! I find it so wild how different sources show different things. I feel like all I'm seeing is that things are trending in the wrong way for her. I want to see what you're seeing!

I think one thing is for sure: We're going to see voting in higher numbers than ever before. 

[cville]

Oct 22, 2024 13:43:01 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

Oct 22, 2024 13:36:19 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

I'm losing my optimism. My algorithm feeds me all kinds of stuff that makes me think Harris has got this...but when I look outside of that, I get nervous. I read something about people inside the Harris campaign becoming more concerned about the Blue Wall states, and it makes me sick to my stomach. But then again, I wonder if they're not doing some kind of reverse psychology thing to make sure we don't get complacent like many people think happened in 2016.

I’m actually going the opposite way! Last week I was freaked out but this week the trend lines look better for us.

Where are you seeing good trend lines? I have seen a lot of trends shifting towards that jackass and would love to see the reverse.

[stuffandthings]

Oct 22, 2024 13:48:27 GMT -5 cville said:

Oct 22, 2024 13:43:01 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

I’m actually going the opposite way! Last week I was freaked out but this week the trend lines look better for us.

Where are you seeing good trend lines? I have seen a lot of trends shifting towards that jackass and would love to see the reverse.

Fivethirtyeight had Trump 54% Harris 46% and now has them 50-50. Morning Consult (which normally overestimates GOP folks) has her up 4 today. I saw a lot of panic last week but things seem to be improving in the polling I follow.