Who is going to win the US election in November?

[cville]

Oct 22, 2024 13:50:48 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

Oct 22, 2024 13:48:27 GMT -5 cville said:

Where are you seeing good trend lines? I have seen a lot of trends shifting towards that jackass and would love to see the reverse.

Fivethirtyeight had Trump 54% Harris 46% and now has them 50-50. Morning Consult (which normally overestimates GOP folks) has her up 4 today. I saw a lot of panic last week but things seem to be improving in the polling I follow.

Thank you. I'll take it.

[TR]

Oct 22, 2024 13:54:36 GMT -5 cville said:

Oct 22, 2024 13:50:48 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

Fivethirtyeight had Trump 54% Harris 46% and now has them 50-50. Morning Consult (which normally overestimates GOP folks) has her up 4 today. I saw a lot of panic last week but things seem to be improving in the polling I follow.

Thank you. I'll take it.

I’ll try to find a link to the video, but Sharon Says So had a good video about how Trump’s team is flooding states with biased polls to make it appear closer than it is so that when Harris wins they can claim interference because “he was winning and now all of a sudden he lost???” Grain of salt, obviously, but it gave me some comfort.

[fumbalina]

I want Harris to win, but I am aware that I chose to live in a somewhat echo chamber, so I can't be sure.

[mcsangel2]

Oct 22, 2024 19:13:08 GMT -5 TR said:

Oct 22, 2024 13:54:36 GMT -5 cville said:

Thank you. I'll take it.

I’ll try to find a link to the video, but Sharon Says So had a good video about how Trump’s team is flooding states with biased polls to make it appear closer than it is so that when Harris wins they can claim interference because “he was winning and now all of a sudden he lost???” Grain of salt, obviously, but it gave me some comfort.

This makes me feel a tiny bit better. I haven't been looking at those sites for several days because I can't deal with the Trump surge.

[Jalapeñomel]

I’ve decided this election will be a Harris landslide and will be decided by midnight.

I’m standing by this, as this lets me sleep at night.

[fernweh]

I noticed while on a walk this evening that a neighbor who has fake Halloween gravestones in their yard had a Trump campaign flyer leaning against one of the gravestones. I don’t know if they didn’t intentionally or if it was a funny coincidence and just blew there since it was kind of windy here today but I was extremely amused by it.

[TR]

Oct 23, 2024 17:39:04 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

I’ve decided this election will be a Harris landslide and will be decided by midnight.

I’m standing by this, as this lets me sleep at night.

I actually feel the same way.

[underwaterrhymes]

Oct 23, 2024 18:08:17 GMT -5 TR said:

Oct 23, 2024 17:39:04 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

I’ve decided this election will be a Harris landslide and will be decided by midnight.

I’m standing by this, as this lets me sleep at night.

I actually feel the same way.

Same.

[pugz]

I DON'T KNOW BUT I AM SO SO SO SCARED!

[pugz]

I did hear something about the "negativity bias" not sure what that means but maybe it's why I've become convinced Trump is gonna win. I may just be bracing for the worst.

I am encouraged by early voting turnout.

[katfco]

I believe Harris will win, but I’m worried about the same thing happening that they tried to do last time, with just trying to refuse to accept the results and not certifying.

I worry it’ll come down to the Supreme Court

[lilac05]

Oct 23, 2024 17:39:04 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

I’ve decided this election will be a Harris landslide and will be decided by midnight.

I’m standing by this, as this lets me sleep at night.

I read tonight that basically all of the polls are within the margin of error. There’s a good chance she could sweep all of the swing states and it wouldn’t even be a statistical anomaly.

I need to lean into your energy. Fretting about it is doing me absolutely no good. I think it’s a protective mechanism/body keeping the score reaction to 2016 and the devastation & fear I felt that night. I WANT to believe she’s going to win big…but I’m scared to hope, I think.

[kellady]

As far as the polls being close, my H is convinced that might be a good thing, because it might get more people out to vote for Harris.  He also mentioned that last week, he was driving home “down 37” which is probably a very Trump area, and he couldn’t believe how many Harris signs were up.  A good sign!

But I have a question.  An article in the WaPo mentioned that in GA early voting was very heavy, and that was supposed to be a good thing for Trump, since he had changed his stance on early voting.  How would they come to this conclusion?  Even in registered R’s are voting early, nobody knows who they voted for right?  Is this just an example of the press kind of biased reporting?  

[lilac05]

Oct 24, 2024 7:58:13 GMT -5 kellady said:

As far as the polls being close, my H is convinced that might be a good thing, because it might get more people out to vote for Harris.  He also mentioned that last week, he was driving home “down 37” which is probably a very Trump area, and he couldn’t believe how many Harris signs were up.  A good sign!

But I have a question.  An article in the WaPa mentioned that in GA early voting was very heavy, and that was supposed to be a good thing for Trump, since he had changed his stance on early voting.  How would they come to this conclusion?  Even in registered R’s are voting early, nobody knows who they voted for right?  Is this just an example of the press kind of biased reporting?  

Sometimes I put on a tin foil hat and tell myself that the information from “inside the Harris campaign”(and maybe some media sources) about concerns of how she’s doing in polls are plants to keep people anxious and working hard to get out the vote.

As far as early voting being good for Trump…the number of declared Rs voting early this year is definitely up. But you’re correct that there’s no way of knowing who they’re actually voting for. Again, I’d love to believe it’s to help encourage voter turnout. Because it seems most people are pretty confident that if voter turnout is high, Harris wins.

[ellipses84]

If the large early voter turnout continues in swing states, we’ll be in great shape and we’ll be able to tell a lot from the stats even before Election Day. Remember, high voter turnout means a Democratic win. More women voting is good. More Dems voting is good. I have to believe the majority of the independent vote and a large majority of the GenZ vote (many of who identify as independent) will go Dem. I also think a significant number of republicans are going to vote D. We already know Ds in red states who register R for the primaries do this, but now we’ve had so many hardcore R’s publicly state they are voting for Harris. What percentage does that translate to in the rest of the population? Conservatively 5-10%? That wins the election with the margin of error in the polling.

There’s a little bit of unpredictability with who is voting early / in person / by mail compared to 2016/ 2020 / 2022 due to the pandemic and all the election distrust spread by the R party.

For Houston, the early voting numbers aren’t terrible but they aren’t breaking records and I have to believe that’s due to voter suppression and will improve this weekend when people have time to trek across the city and wait to early vote. I heard Sororities were going Saturday. Other cities in TX are doing well. Harris going to Harris County is a great sign that they feel confident in the swing states and are trying to help Allred win the Senate.

[stuffandthings]

This was so interesting--turns out donors in my hometown (which is much poorer on average than the city I live in now) gave more to Harris per person than my extremely blue neighborhood! And that's pure Trump country, right there...

www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/

[noodleoo]

Oct 23, 2024 18:46:03 GMT -5 pugz said:

I did hear something about the "negativity bias" not sure what that means but maybe it's why I've become convinced Trump is gonna win. I may just be bracing for the worst.

I am encouraged by early voting turnout.

This is my H.  He kept saying Dump would win in 2016, which was really demoralizing (especially when he was right).  He's doing the same thing this year, but I think he's just saying it so that if it happens, he won't be devastated like I was in 2016.   But it's making me so mad, don't put that energy out there!

I know Harris is going to win.  She has to.  People can't be stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.  I'm choosing to be hopeful even if it means I might be devastated later again.  

Also I voted already and I'm trying to release the anxiety.  I did my part.  Now we wait and see.

[chchchia]

I honestly cannot see a way for trump to win this, at all. I just cannot see it. We are on our way to having our first woman/black/asian president.

[beerlover]

Seen on my walk in my very red town this morning.

[ellipses84]

I watched a political influencer give his 2 week out prediction map and reasons why. Harris wins by a lot, but I don’t think he was that familiar with the west. He had Nevada going blue because they use a lot of immigrant workers in the hospitality industry so he didn’t think the mass deportation policies would go over well and AZ going red because it’s close to the border. I have family in AZ, go there fairly often, so I disagree and so did a lot of Arizonans in the comments. Here’s the reasons why:

@abortion is on the ballot

GenZ, Women and Navajo Nation are mobilized and will be voting in record numbers.

Ruben Gallego’s campaign is going well and people hate Lake.

The pundit said 🍊 changed his AZ strategy away from inflation/ high prices to focus on immigration. I think this was a terrible strategy and mass deportation is scary unpopular for the majority of voters. There’s already a fear of ICE in the community and people know this would impact their friends and neighbors, and there would be legal immigrants and legal citizens impacted. It’s not this abstract concept like it might be in less diverse or more segregated areas that are seeing an influx of immigrants.

I’ve seen way less 🍊 signs this year in 🔴 areas. I genuinely think most people there don’t like 🍊. Some of these areas are more diverse than you think they would be. Also the majority of the population is in a couple major cities and surrounding suburbs and people vote, not land. Generally the population doesn’t want a Gov’t like California, a lot like their guns, their freedom and low taxes but they also want issues like the water shortage solved and decent schools for their kids. They don’t want an Authoritarian Gov’t telling them they have to be a conservative churchgoer. They are not particularly religious, even if they identify with a religion, many don’t attend church regularly. Both Nevada and AZ have had a lot of CA transplants that didn’t like Newsom during the pandemic but I don’t think most are extremely conservative politically.

🍊 can’t even say their name. How can he represent their best interest? Arizonans now like to jokingly call themselves Azurasians or say Come to our great state of Azurasia! thanks to dumbass 🍊 🙄 He is a joke.

For Nevada early voting, I heard numbers aren’t high because large union employers provide rolling time off periods on Election Day for groups to go vote.

[elleblue]

Oct 24, 2024 9:00:20 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

This was so interesting--turns out donors in my hometown (which is much poorer on average than the city I live in now) gave more to Harris per person than my extremely blue neighborhood! And that's pure Trump country, right there...

www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/

Roughly 800 Harris donors to 90 Trump donors in my zip code. Money given is $200k (Harris) to $40k (Trump).

And of course I had to look up my in-laws zip, The Villages. More Harris donors there too. 👀 1732 Harris donors ($300k) to 1309 Trump donors ($200k).

[tacoflavoredkisses]

It alarms me how many Trump signs I’ve seen in our area of northern VA, so it worries me a bit. I try not to spiral too much into the things I read (ie trump winning, Vance invoking the 25th, project 2025 going full speed ahead) and just keeping my fingers crossed that people like Christopher Bouzy are right with their predictions!

[picksthemusic]

I've been seeing a ton of Harris/Walz signs around here and we're usually not big 'put signs up' people. And if signs are up, it's usually Rs that are doing it. There are still tons of campaign signs up in my area for people that lost the primary but their campaign people never took them down (again, 99% R people).

[ellipses84]

Oct 24, 2024 7:58:13 GMT -5 kellady said:

But I have a question.  An article in the WaPa mentioned that in GA early voting was very heavy, and that was supposed to be a good thing for Trump, since he had changed his stance on early voting.  How would they come to this conclusion?  Even in registered R’s are voting early, nobody knows who they voted for right?  Is this just an example of the press kind of biased reporting?  

From the stats I’ve seen for swing state early voters, which show if they are Democrat, Republicans, Independent or Male vs. Female or Age Group, Democrats and Females are outpacing most by like 10%. I think NC was one of the few states that was a lot closer than that and people have been dealing with Hurricane aftermath and maybe voting closer to Election Day. I was a little concerned with the large turnout of older voters but that’s just because they are retired and have the time during the week. Some are Rs because of that changed stance, but some may be Rs voting D, and ultimately it’s more older Democrat women and we know how they vote. I think a lot of Independents will vote D and a lot of Independents are GenZ voting D.

[kellady]

Oct 24, 2024 13:21:36 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

Oct 24, 2024 7:58:13 GMT -5 kellady said:

But I have a question.  An article in the WaPa mentioned that in GA early voting was very heavy, and that was supposed to be a good thing for Trump, since he had changed his stance on early voting.  How would they come to this conclusion?  Even in registered R’s are voting early, nobody knows who they voted for right?  Is this just an example of the press kind of biased reporting?  

From the stats I’ve seen for swing state early voters, which show if they are Democrat, Republicans, Independent or Male vs. Female or Age Group, Democrats and Females are outpacing most by like 10%. I think NC was one of the few states that was a lot closer than that and people have been dealing with Hurricane aftermath and maybe voting closer to Election Day. I was a little concerned with the large turnout of older voters but that’s just because they are retired and have the time during the week. Some are Rs because of that changed stance, but some may be Rs voting D, and ultimately it’s more older Democrat women and we know how they vote. I think a lot of Independents will vote D and a lot of Independents are GenZ voting D.

So that sounds good then?  So I’m just annoyed that the article seemed to specify that that was good news for Trump.  Maybe it is just me and my nerves. 

[Michelle]

Oct 24, 2024 8:44:11 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

If the large early voter turnout continues in swing states, we’ll be in great shape and we’ll be able to tell a lot from the stats even before Election Day. Remember, high voter turnout means a Democratic win. More women voting is good. More Dems voting is good. I have to believe the majority of the independent vote and a large majority of the GenZ vote (many of who identify as independent) will go Dem. I also think a significant number of republicans are going to vote D. We already know Ds in red states who register R for the primaries do this, but now we’ve had so many hardcore R’s publicly state they are voting for Harris. What percentage does that translate to in the rest of the population? Conservatively 5-10%? That wins the election with the margin of error in the polling.

There’s a little bit of unpredictability with who is voting early / in person / by mail compared to 2016/ 2020 / 2022 due to the pandemic and all the election distrust spread by the R party.

For Houston, the early voting numbers aren’t terrible but they aren’t breaking records and I have to believe that’s due to voter suppression and will improve this weekend when people have time to trek across the city and wait to early vote. I heard Sororities were going Saturday. Other cities in TX are doing well. Harris going to Harris County is a great sign that they feel confident in the swing states and are trying to help Allred win the Senate.

This is the opposite of what I've been reading and observing. What is your source? My sources are local news affiliates like ABC and CBS.


Edit - i went back to check myself before i wrecked myself. 2020 showed record breaking turnout. The reports I read said, "near record breaking" and were comparing 2024 to 2016 numbers. We are really close to 2020 numbers but you are right that we haven't broken records, and i agree 100% that voter suppression is the major cause.

[ellipses84]

Oct 24, 2024 15:56:48 GMT -5 Michelle said:

Oct 24, 2024 8:44:11 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

If the large early voter turnout continues in swing states, we’ll be in great shape and we’ll be able to tell a lot from the stats even before Election Day. Remember, high voter turnout means a Democratic win. More women voting is good. More Dems voting is good. I have to believe the majority of the independent vote and a large majority of the GenZ vote (many of who identify as independent) will go Dem. I also think a significant number of republicans are going to vote D. We already know Ds in red states who register R for the primaries do this, but now we’ve had so many hardcore R’s publicly state they are voting for Harris. What percentage does that translate to in the rest of the population? Conservatively 5-10%? That wins the election with the margin of error in the polling.

There’s a little bit of unpredictability with who is voting early / in person / by mail compared to 2016/ 2020 / 2022 due to the pandemic and all the election distrust spread by the R party.

For Houston, the early voting numbers aren’t terrible but they aren’t breaking records and I have to believe that’s due to voter suppression and will improve this weekend when people have time to trek across the city and wait to early vote. I heard Sororities were going Saturday. Other cities in TX are doing well. Harris going to Harris County is a great sign that they feel confident in the swing states and are trying to help Allred win the Senate.

This is the opposite of what I've been reading and observing. What is your source? My sources are local news affiliates like ABC and CBS.


Edit - i went back to check myself before i wrecked myself. 2020 showed record breaking turnout. The reports I read said, "near record breaking" and were comparing 2024 to 2016 numbers. We are really close to 2020 numbers but you are right that we haven't broken records, and i agree 100% that voter suppression is the major cause.

It’s still great turnout! Just not quite as strong as 2020. Some of the swing states were breaking records on the first day of early voting for them but it also wasn’t a Monday for all of them. Data is changing daily and I haven’t spent a ton of time drilling down into it so mainly relying on other people’s reporting too.

[ellipses84]

Oct 24, 2024 15:37:08 GMT -5 kellady said:

Oct 24, 2024 13:21:36 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

From the stats I’ve seen for swing state early voters, which show if they are Democrat, Republicans, Independent or Male vs. Female or Age Group, Democrats and Females are outpacing most by like 10%. I think NC was one of the few states that was a lot closer than that and people have been dealing with Hurricane aftermath and maybe voting closer to Election Day. I was a little concerned with the large turnout of older voters but that’s just because they are retired and have the time during the week. Some are Rs because of that changed stance, but some may be Rs voting D, and ultimately it’s more older Democrat women and we know how they vote. I think a lot of Independents will vote D and a lot of Independents are GenZ voting D.

So that sounds good then?  So I’m just annoyed that the article seemed to specify that that was good news for Trump.  Maybe it is just me and my nerves. 

Yeah, I’ve heard the same. I think the polls are biased and they aren’t looking at the early voter data in the same way. I think billionaires put a bunch of money in the betting markets to skew the odds to a Trump win. It’s difficult to predict how new and Independent voters will vote, so GenZ, lots of new older voters of all Generations, and Rs voting D aren’t accounted for. The mainstream media has incentive to report this as a close match because it keeps everyone glued to their screens until the end, kind of like a close SuperBowl would, but it will also help Dems turnout to vote (unlike in 2016 when everyone thought Clinton would win) so it’s anxiety fueling but ultimately good for us.

[ellipses84]

Oct 24, 2024 16:53:33 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

Oct 24, 2024 15:56:48 GMT -5 Michelle said:

This is the opposite of what I've been reading and observing. What is your source? My sources are local news affiliates like ABC and CBS.


Edit - i went back to check myself before i wrecked myself. 2020 showed record breaking turnout. The reports I read said, "near record breaking" and were comparing 2024 to 2016 numbers. We are really close to 2020 numbers but you are right that we haven't broken records, and i agree 100% that voter suppression is the major cause.

It’s still great turnout! Just not quite as strong as 2020. Some of the swing states were breaking records on the first day of early voting for them but it also wasn’t a Monday for all of them. Data is changing daily and I haven’t spent a ton of time drilling down into it so mainly relying on other people’s reporting too.

[mention]michellebelle [/mention] the latest update I heard for the whole state of TX for in person early voting broke 2020 records by 100k. New voter registration and population in the state (from people relocating to TX) are up quite a bit (like 15-20% I think).

[lust2hart]

"'Higher prices, larger deficits': 23 Nobel Prize-winning economists slam Trump agenda, endorse Harris."

www.cnbc.com/2024/10/23/nobel-prize-winning-economists-donald-trump-agenda-endorse-harris.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawGIjINleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHS_s_osJ9uLBKSRAVCEYNPYKK91YmHYIxZativZcDwirk14Zmf-UQKx_Iw_aem_2TOL4Jt4upqbl9hklMUm7Q

This may be good to keep in our back pockets for people who are voting for Trump because of "the economy."