What makes a state ”solidly” red or blue

[fernweh]

I have seen some discussion on here that states (Iowa and Ohio are coming to mind) solidly red. However both of those dents voted Democrat as recently as 2012.
Michigan is considered a swing state but 2016 is the only time in went to a Republican since 1988 and I think even in 2016 it was considered a swing state. Pennsylvania is the same as Michigan with 2016 being the 1st time since 1988 it went red.

Am I wrong and MI and PA weren’t actually considered swing states prior to 2016? Or were they? What criteria is used to determine if it’s a swing or “solid” state?

[sakoro]

Probably how the state voted in mid-terms and the most recent presidential election as well as polls. North Carolina was considered safely red earlier this year and moved back into swing status after Harris took over and polls tightened.

As to why Ohio, Florida and Iowa changed politically over the last eight years, you’ll have to read a political science textbook!

[lilac05]

I don’t believe in it…on either side. I think it suppresses votes and becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. People in “solidly red” states think their blue votes don’t matter, so they don’t bother to vote. (The reverse is true, too.)

When you look at the actual results by percentages, you see that MOST states are FAR more mixed than anyone really realizes. Iowa is considered “Ruby Red”…but Trump got 53% of the votes in 2020. However, people act as if Iowa is 90% red with just a few people here and there. Texas was less than 52%! (Again, the flip side is also true. A lot of “solidly blue” states are far less blue than people would like to think if you actually look at the numbers.)

The red state vs blue state is divisive and dangerous. And the more people buy into it, the more they’ll be surprised when one party in a state wakes up and says, “No more.”

[sakoro]

Nov 3, 2024 12:24:49 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

The red state vs blue state is divisive and dangerous. And the more people buy into it, the more they’ll be surprised when one party in a state wakes up and says, “No more.”

Another reason to remove the electoral college. One person, one vote!

[eddy]

Nov 3, 2024 12:24:49 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

I don’t believe in it…on either side. I think it suppresses votes and becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. People in “solidly red” states think their blue votes don’t matter, so they don’t bother to vote. (The reverse is true, too.)

When you look at the actual results by percentages, you see that MOST states are FAR more mixed than anyone really realizes. Iowa is considered “Ruby Red”…but Trump got 53% of the votes in 2020. However, people act as if Iowa is 90% red with just a few people here and there. Texas was less than 52%! (Again, the flip side is also true. A lot of “solidly blue” states are far less blue than people would like to think if you actually look at the numbers.)

The red state vs blue state is divisive and dangerous. And the more people buy into it, the more they’ll be surprised when one party in a state wakes up and says, “No more.”

Fellow Iowan chiming in and I completely agree. I am pretty bullish on this topic even though it has been rough in our state for 10 years. 

I knew this time was coming for Iowa. I didn't think it would be this quick, honestly. But it makes sense. We have been living under very senseless laws that no one is asking for. 

I always raise my eyebrows at people who say "I could never live in a non-blue state." Because how in the world can you be so confident that it will always be your reality? You either have to live in a very homogenous political state or be okay with moving over your lifetime.  

Anyways, I had mimosas this morning thanks to the Ann Selzer results for president and then our congressional races. Cheers to maybe better days ahead. 

[eddy]

Also I have day dreamed Kim Reynolds squirming in her chair for the past 12 hours lol. I hope she has a bad case of indigestion this morning.

[penguingineer]

In Arkansas, we like to say that we’re not a red state, we’re a non-voting state. I truly hope we get some shift sooner rather than later. Sarah Fuckabee isn’t popular. She rules like a dictator, and the Republican super majority falls in line or else faces a primary challenge. I’d love for there to be some progress this cycle.

Also would love it if we get abortion on the ballot in 2026 when SHS is up for re-election. That’ll drive turnout!

[wawa]

Maryland is true solidly blue. We went 65 Biden to 32 trump in 2020, and our state level politics are extremely dem dominated as well. We recently had a Republican gov but he ran on promising not to interfere in gay marriage or abortion or gun control. Unthinkable for R's elsewhere, a requirement here.

I think its odd that we talk about places much closer than that as a lock. When we say solid, we should mean it. Pollsters considering a 4% margin solid anything feels like a symptom of our larger dysfunction.

[lilac05]

Nov 3, 2024 13:58:19 GMT -5 penguingineer said:

In Arkansas, we like to say that we’re not a red state, we’re a non-voting state. I truly hope we get some shift sooner rather than later. Sarah Fuckabee isn’t popular. She rules like a dictator, and the Republican super majority falls in line or else faces a primary challenge. I’d love for there to be some progress this cycle.

Also would love it if we get abortion on the ballot in 2026 when SHS is up for re-election. That’ll drive turnout!

Yep. That’s the thing…a lot of “solidly red” states also have incredibly low voter turnout. If people think their vote doesn’t matter because their state *always* goes a certain way, why would they bother waiting in a long line to vote?

However, there’s a risk that blue votes don’t show up because it *always* goes blue…and that difference can be made up quite quickly!

[Velar Fricative]

New York is solidly blue but of course we have a lot of GOP voters too. Ds lost the House because of NY two years ago though.

I wonder if the red states have the self-fulfilling prophecy issue more than blue states. Because I have truly not experienced seeing MAGA voters not voting because it’s pointless. They are out there in full force no matter what. Old people too regardless of state. They vote like it’s brushing teeth lol.

[ellipses84]

I’ve argued with so many people about Iowa. It went 10 points for 🍊 both times so I guess from a polling/ campaign strategy perspective it didn’t make sense to spend the money there for a few electoral votes when they aren’t needed with the other swing states. I think it still have been considered a possibility since it went to Obama in 2008 and 2012, and it influences the other corn states, so it could have made the R’s sweat and spend time/ money in other places. If Dems don’t campaign there, it will go red. I think the Midwest can feel forgotten and likes a when a candidate cares enough to visit.

Maybe if Kamala had more time to campaign and with @ abortion on the ballot, they would have made a campaign stop in Iowa. I think Tim Walz is popular there too.

Their Governor is horrendous and the local media doesn’t hold back about it. People are fed up. I heard someone say Iowa tends to go for a Populist candidate so they weren’t surprised by the recent Selzer poll. I had to look into that more to see what they meant. Populist candidate can refer to conservative or liberal, so for 🍊 it was the whole “drain the swamp” rhetoric and for Obama and Harris it’s the “for the people, workers rights” type message.

Just thinking of the grass roots efforts in GA and TX and even the massive investment in TX, Kamala visiting there to help the Senate race even though flipping blue may be a long shot, there’s a huge investment in a huge state. Obviously it has a major impact on the whole country, a lot of electoral votes and is likely to flip blue by 2028 based on demographics, but I don’t think we should sleep on any state that has a chance. Lots of lessons learned to take into the next election *when* Kamala wins.

[penguingineer]

Nov 3, 2024 14:31:56 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Nov 3, 2024 13:58:19 GMT -5 penguingineer said:

In Arkansas, we like to say that we’re not a red state, we’re a non-voting state. I truly hope we get some shift sooner rather than later. Sarah Fuckabee isn’t popular. She rules like a dictator, and the Republican super majority falls in line or else faces a primary challenge. I’d love for there to be some progress this cycle.

Also would love it if we get abortion on the ballot in 2026 when SHS is up for re-election. That’ll drive turnout!

Yep. That’s the thing…a lot of “solidly red” states also have incredibly low voter turnout. If people think their vote doesn’t matter because their state *always* goes a certain way, why would they bother waiting in a long line to vote?

However, there’s a risk that blue votes don’t show up because it *always* goes blue…and that difference can be made up quite quickly!

Its also frustrating with gerrymandering. Little Rock was split into three (of the four) congressional districts to dilute black and progressive votes. It adds to the “why should I vote?” when clearly the elected officials are picking their voters.

[atarianna]

Ohio is actually a pretty 50/50 state but our map districting is full of unconstitutional gerrymandering (per our conservative state Supreme Court - 7 different times) and our districts and therefore our legislature is more like 67% (R) to 33% (D). We are trying to pass issue 1 which will make a no partisan and non politician run commission with 5 Ds, 5 Rs and 5 independents to make truly impartial maps, but the Rs are obviously opposed because they would really lose their edge.

[wildrice]

I would have considered Iowa a swing state. I lived there from 2008-2018 and it would have been a "blue" state for most of that time! It did take a hard turn to red in the last several years but I remember being surprised in 2016 that Trump did as well as he did. There has always been a lot more variability in the congressional/down ballot races.

But let's not forget that Iowa was one of the first states to choose to legalize same sex marriage! Until recently, there was decent abortion access too (at least in towns with decent general healthcare access - there are issues with rural access to all kinds of care).

I grew up in solidly blue Illinois and now I live in solidly blue Maryland. But I agree, who knows what the future could bring! Here in Maryland we had a Republican governor for a number of years, and it looks like we went for a Republican as "recently" as the first Bush presidency. I don't see us going red anytime in the near future, but who knows. I will say our status as a blue state has definitely influenced our decision to continue living here. I am afraid at this point in our polarized political system, if we ever went red it would mean bad things for the whole country so we might move - out of the US. But hopefully it won't come to that.

[sonrisa]

In this election, the main categorization seems to be: a ou are considered blue if your electoral votes went for both Hilary and Biden. Red if they went for Trump in 2016 and 3020. Swing if they went for Trump 2016 but Biden 2020.

There has been noticeable intracountry migration and generational turn over since 2016. This year’s results will tell us who gets treated as a battle ground state next time.

[scm1011]

Nov 3, 2024 14:26:26 GMT -5 wawa said:

Maryland is true solidly blue. We went 65 Biden to 32 trump in 2020, and our state level politics are extremely dem dominated as well. We recently had a Republican gov but he ran on promising not to interfere in gay marriage or abortion or gun control. Unthinkable for R's elsewhere, a requirement here.

This is Massachusetts, too. Bluest of blue, but we had a well-liked Republican Governor who was easily re-elected. He's vocally anti-Trump and would be considered a moderate Democrat in any other state.

 

[lilac05]

Nov 4, 2024 9:42:27 GMT -5 scm1011 said:

Nov 3, 2024 14:26:26 GMT -5 wawa said:

Maryland is true solidly blue. We went 65 Biden to 32 trump in 2020, and our state level politics are extremely dem dominated as well. We recently had a Republican gov but he ran on promising not to interfere in gay marriage or abortion or gun control. Unthinkable for R's elsewhere, a requirement here.

This is Massachusetts, too. Bluest of blue, but we had a well-liked Republican Governor who was easily re-elected. He's vocally anti-Trump and would be considered a moderate Democrat in any other state.

 

But even the “Bluest of blue” states was 65% Biden. That means 35% are NOT. That’s not nearly as insignificant as people would like to think. That doesn’t mean MA is at risk for going red, but it does mean that 1/3 of the people that you meet on the street voted for Trump.

[sonrisa]

Nov 4, 2024 10:44:06 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

 but it does mean that 1/3 of the people that you meet on the street voted for Trump.

Not really. At least not in CA. Sure, 34% of 2020 CA voters voted for Trump, but they aren't evenly distributed.

In my county it was 15% of the people who voted Trump in 2020. So much lower than 1 in 10 people you see on the street. (not everyone is eligible to vote. Not everyone who is eligible voted in the general election.) Now if you are in Lassen County, with 23% Biden voters, it feels very different. They have their representatives in Congress and the state legislature, but we aren't a state that mixes in a republican Governor or Senator just for the fun of it some times. (Schwartnegger won on name recognition and being on a ballot with almost 50 candidates more than for being a moderate republican. And even he was a while ago.)

[scm1011]

Nov 4, 2024 10:44:06 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Nov 4, 2024 9:42:27 GMT -5 scm1011 said:

This is Massachusetts, too. Bluest of blue, but we had a well-liked Republican Governor who was easily re-elected. He's vocally anti-Trump and would be considered a moderate Democrat in any other state.

 

But even the “Bluest of blue” states was 65% Biden. That means 35% are NOT. That’s not nearly as insignificant as people would like to think. That doesn’t mean MA is at risk for going red, but it does mean that 1/3 of the people that you meet on the street voted for Trump.

Oh for sure. Many of my MA cousins are in that group. 
My city went 88% for Biden so thankfully I don't meet as many MAGA folks on the street as elsewhere in the state  

[wawa]

Nov 4, 2024 10:44:06 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Nov 4, 2024 9:42:27 GMT -5 scm1011 said:

This is Massachusetts, too. Bluest of blue, but we had a well-liked Republican Governor who was easily re-elected. He's vocally anti-Trump and would be considered a moderate Democrat in any other state.

 

But even the “Bluest of blue” states was 65% Biden. That means 35% are NOT. That’s not nearly as insignificant as people would like to think. That doesn’t mean MA is at risk for going red, but it does mean that 1/3 of the people that you meet on the street voted for Trump.

nah, because most of that 35% are the folks who are afraid of the city and my high percent black/brown neighborhood in the burbs.  So I'm probably not seeing them on the street much.  

To riff further on the comment about Cali - 
I was curious so I just looked up the active voter registration rolls by county in MD - the swing from county to county is even bigger than I expected. 
Our densest jurisdictions - Baltimore City, Prince George's County, Montgomery County - are 9%, 7% and 14% R.  
Our least populous jurisdictions - Somerset, Caroline, Garrett - are 53, 64 and 80% R.  (80!!!!  Jesus Garrett)

But we're talking about half a million people registered in Prince George's and MoCo vs. 11k in Somerset.  

Most states look like this obvs, it's just not always enough D population in the dense areas to sway the rest of a bigger state.  

I tried to find, but couldn't easily, whether there is higher turnout among registered D voters, since they don't feel like their vote is "wasted" in our blue state?  Our overall turnout was pretty damn good in 2020.  Above the national average (which was also high).  

dls.maryland.gov/data/dashboard-elections-general-election-voter-turnout-map

[Vespasia]

wawa I was looking at this around the same time you were posting and it illustrates the same division by locations within a state.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html

My neighborhood was 93% Biden to 5% Trump. I'm actually surprised he found 22 votes around here!

[somersault72]

Nov 3, 2024 20:54:19 GMT -5 atarianna said:

Ohio is actually a pretty 50/50 state but our map districting is full of unconstitutional gerrymandering (per our conservative state Supreme Court - 7 different times) and our districts and therefore our legislature is more like 67% (R) to 33% (D). We are trying to pass issue 1 which will make a no partisan and non politician run commission with 5 Ds, 5 Rs and 5 independents to make truly impartial maps, but the Rs are obviously opposed because they would really lose their edge.

This was my first thought, too. I would love to see how things shake out if we can get Issue 1 passed and get fair districts drawn.

[sonrisa]

Nov 4, 2024 11:42:20 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

wawa I was looking at this around the same time you were posting and it illustrates the same division by locations within a state.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html

My neighborhood was 93% Biden to 5% Trump. I'm actually surprised he found 22 votes around here!

So I just pulled that up and I'm next to a voting district with 3 voters in two houses. One of whom voted Trump. I guess that Julia Roberts video isn't so true for that family.