Results chatter thread

[noodleoo]

Nov 6, 2024 9:04:15 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Biden wasn’t winning either even if he excelled in the debate. This wasn’t even close. The Trump campaign according to the Atlantic article thought they were sweeping with Biden in the race. So really nothing changed with Kamala. Lotz of work for the Dems.

Does no one in the electorate care that he will eliminate the ACA or about women’s rights. The numbers are just incredible.

Or get rid of the Dept of Education and put worm for brains RFK, Jr in charge of healthcare in the US?  So many things he promised to do are just INSANE.  I really think people aren't paying attention. 

I get that people don't care about women.  I'm mad at myself for thinking that had finally changed.  But ALL THE OTHER STUFF TOO?  It is so bad.

[carmenere]

Just musing: I really wonder about the net effect of abortion access ballot measures on other races. Don’t get me wrong, I am glad most of them passed. And I know that it has been an effective wedge issue to turn out Democratic voters. But I think it’s giving others an “out” to feel like they can vote red and still have reproductive freedom. Looking at Missouri and Montana senate races in particular.

[Velar Fricative]

Nov 6, 2024 9:26:27 GMT -5 carmenere said:

Just musing: I really wonder about the net effect of abortion access ballot measures on other races. Don’t get me wrong, I am glad most of them passed. And I know that it has been an effective wedge issue to turn out Democratic voters. But I think it’s giving others an “out” to feel like they can vote red and still have reproductive freedom. Looking at Missouri and Montana senate races in particular.

I can’t even remember if I posted this already here since I’ve been mentioning to a few people elsewhere, but the Daily episode for today also had a piece about abortion. The reporters were saying it’s possible (probable?) that because Trump appeared to successfully distance himself from the evangelicals on abortion for a while now, more voters felt comfortable voting for him AND for abortion rights. I think the numbers in FL clearly tell that story - yes, the abortion rights measure lost but only because of the 60% minimum needed. 57% voted for abortion rights…about the same percentage of voters who voted for Trump. The belief is that, well, voters believe what he says. Which is unbelievable but this squares with the figures so far.

[aurora]

Nov 6, 2024 9:12:06 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Do we have a chance to take the House?

Yes. I don't know how high of a chance given everything but I did read that control of the House may not be known for days as votes are counted in California and elsewhere.

[Roc A Bee]

I think Covid is the only reason Trump lost in 2020. Record turn out was due to lots more early voting due to Covid. And the Biden win gave us false hope that our country isn’t at least 50% racist.

[aurora]

Nov 6, 2024 6:54:49 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Today is the day to vent and then we regroup, but based on what I see now, I don’t believe the country somehow became wayyyyy more racist and misogynistic than it already blatantly was in four years. Especially not when elections in between didn’t show the same evidence of that. Every single state appears to have shifted right, so internal migration patterns can’t explain this. We don’t win future elections if we don’t figure out what truly went wrong at the granular level. I suspect it will boil down to simple economics but there will be so much work to do.

But none of those other races were for a woman in the top role, so it's entirely consistent to keep the same lever of misogyny and be OK with women in leadership at lower levels and women's rights and all that and still uncomfortable with a* woman for President.

*usually framed as "that woman" for reasons that may not apply to a man and are often subconscious

[underwaterrhymes]

Nov 6, 2024 9:43:22 GMT -5 aurora said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:12:06 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Do we have a chance to take the House?

Yes. I don't know how high of a chance given everything but I did read that control of the House may not be known for days as votes are counted in California and elsewhere.

I have to hope that we can take it. I’m feeling so sick and defeated about the idea of having no checks or balances at all.

[neverfstop]

Nov 6, 2024 8:11:26 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Astead Herndon is speaking a lot of truth (IMO) in today’s Daily episode, if you want to listen.

Just listened to it & suggested it in another thread...it was some scathing but true analysis.  
Demographics aren't destiny
People don't vote on representation (women for women, black for blacks)
GOP is the party of change & anti-establishment
People (rightly or wrongly) hate the government & incumbents are losing (globally)
Biden & the dems didn't offer any substantive change
the Dems failed when nominating Biden & not having a real primary to get the true temp of the country
People will vote for the hope of change over the fear of an authoritarian strongman 

It's really fucking depressing...

[Velar Fricative]

Nov 6, 2024 9:47:54 GMT -5 aurora said:

Nov 6, 2024 6:54:49 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Today is the day to vent and then we regroup, but based on what I see now, I don’t believe the country somehow became wayyyyy more racist and misogynistic than it already blatantly was in four years. Especially not when elections in between didn’t show the same evidence of that. Every single state appears to have shifted right, so internal migration patterns can’t explain this. We don’t win future elections if we don’t figure out what truly went wrong at the granular level. I suspect it will boil down to simple economics but there will be so much work to do.

But none of those other races were for a woman in the top role, so it's entirely consistent to keep the same lever of misogyny and be OK with women in leadership at lower levels and women's rights and all that and still uncomfortable with a* woman for President.

*usually framed as "that woman" for reasons that may not apply to a man and are often subconscious

HRC won the popular vote. Even in 8 years, I don’t think misogyny has grown that much more versus more people just being more comfortable showcasing it. Harris also already had more votes than HRC got in 2016 and the count isn’t even over yet. Maybe a few voters stayed home because they refused to vote for a woman, but this many millions of people? My point is, everything I see at this moment tells me that we cannot fall on misogyny being a core reason why Harris lost. That is not what the data is showing so far, and I might to a step further and say that if a woman was our nominee in 2020, she would have won given how the pandemic looks like it created an anomalous election. I’ll eat my hat if I’m wrong and see more evidence of this, but when we regroup we really need to dig deep and focus on allllll the reasons.

[circa1978]

Nov 6, 2024 9:36:51 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:26:27 GMT -5 carmenere said:

Just musing: I really wonder about the net effect of abortion access ballot measures on other races. Don’t get me wrong, I am glad most of them passed. And I know that it has been an effective wedge issue to turn out Democratic voters. But I think it’s giving others an “out” to feel like they can vote red and still have reproductive freedom. Looking at Missouri and Montana senate races in particular.

I can’t even remember if I posted this already here since I’ve been mentioning to a few people elsewhere, but the Daily episode for today also had a piece about abortion. The reporters were saying it’s possible (probable?) that because Trump appeared to successfully distance himself from the evangelicals on abortion for a while now, more voters felt comfortable voting for him AND for abortion rights. I think the numbers in FL clearly tell that story - yes, the abortion rights measure lost but only because of the 60% minimum needed. 57% voted for abortion rights…about the same percentage of voters who voted for Trump. The belief is that, well, voters believe what he says. Which is unbelievable but this squares with the figures so far.

I guess. Waking up in Missouri this morning IDK what I thought was going to happen, because I knew going in he'd win Missouri and was fairly confident about 3 but didn't really stop to do the internal math on how that was going to work. 

I suppose that's a "bright" spot for me. @@@@ More people than not don't want me to bleed out in an ER parking lot trying to get reproductive healthcare.@@@ But what does it even mean with the rest of it. Not much.

[Beeps (WOT?*)]

Nov 6, 2024 9:24:42 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:04:15 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Biden wasn’t winning either even if he excelled in the debate. This wasn’t even close. The Trump campaign according to the Atlantic article thought they were sweeping with Biden in the race. So really nothing changed with Kamala. Lotz of work for the Dems.

Does no one in the electorate care that he will eliminate the ACA or about women’s rights. The numbers are just incredible.

Or get rid of the Dept of Education and put worm for brains RFK, Jr in charge of healthcare in the US?  So many things he promised to do are just INSANE.  I really think people aren't paying attention. 

I get that people don't care about women.  I'm mad at myself for thinking that had finally changed.  But ALL THE OTHER STUFF TOO?  It is so bad.

OMG, I was just at ML and someone actually typed "I didn't really like either candidate. I hope RFJ Jr. does all the good things he promised to make food and water safe..." or some such.

My head is still spinning.

[sillygoosegirl]

Nov 6, 2024 8:58:43 GMT -5 taratru said:

Nov 6, 2024 8:03:40 GMT -5 abs said:

No. We can’t go there. Biden barely won in 2020. He wasn’t going to win this election either. People voted for Trump because groceries were cheaper in 2016. Most voters are incredibly uninformed about actual policy. I mean racism/sexism are always in play but I think we were always losing this election.

I agree with this 100 percent. I wonder what they will do in 2028 when their groceries are still expensive, their taxes have gone up, and everything else costs more because of the actual economy? Will they vote differently? Will they have a new enemy to be afraid of? Will they get to vote at all?

A poor economy is always bad news for the incumbent party. I think it's incredibly stupid, since I don't think the president actually has much impact on the price of a gallon of milk or whether your company is having layoffs, and I bet the majority of voters do believe in one party's economic plan or the other and won't be swayed, but I think the current state of the economy has a really big impact on a few percent of wishy-washy folks in the middle... and that's enough to win or lose.

[carmenere]

Nov 6, 2024 10:41:45 GMT -5 circa1978 said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:36:51 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I can’t even remember if I posted this already here since I’ve been mentioning to a few people elsewhere, but the Daily episode for today also had a piece about abortion. The reporters were saying it’s possible (probable?) that because Trump appeared to successfully distance himself from the evangelicals on abortion for a while now, more voters felt comfortable voting for him AND for abortion rights. I think the numbers in FL clearly tell that story - yes, the abortion rights measure lost but only because of the 60% minimum needed. 57% voted for abortion rights…about the same percentage of voters who voted for Trump. The belief is that, well, voters believe what he says. Which is unbelievable but this squares with the figures so far.

I guess. Waking up in Missouri this morning IDK what I thought was going to happen, because I knew going in he'd win Missouri and was fairly confident about 3 but didn't really stop to do the internal math on how that was going to work. 

I suppose that's a "bright" spot for me. @@@@ More people than not don't want me to bleed out in an ER parking lot trying to get reproductive healthcare.@@@ But what does it even mean with the rest of it. Not much.

Missouri is my home state. I knew Trump and Kehoe were going to win in Missouri but I had a bit of hope for Kunce 😭 I was honestly a little bit surprised that the ballot measure passed which is what got me thinking about it.

[neverfstop]

Also, while we're at it, fuck capitalism.....

Stock market is up 1,300 points on the Trump win & belief that he will "be good for business"

[neverfstop]

www.mediaite.com/tv/holy-smokes-literally-nothing-jake-tapper-in-awe-after-harris-fails-to-outperform-biden-in-a-single-state/

Harris Fails To Outperform Biden in a Single State

I saw a graphic with the country & red/blue lines on over+under 2020 results...it was a sea of red needles.

[hermione]

The Michigan Senate Race remains too close to call with 98% of the vote in. More for me to feel nauseous about.

[dior]

Can anyone kindly update on what Kamala says on her speech this afternoon? I would not be able to watch it 

[aurora]

Nov 6, 2024 10:23:05 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:47:54 GMT -5 aurora said:

But none of those other races were for a woman in the top role, so it's entirely consistent to keep the same lever of misogyny and be OK with women in leadership at lower levels and women's rights and all that and still uncomfortable with a* woman for President.

*usually framed as "that woman" for reasons that may not apply to a man and are often subconscious

HRC won the popular vote. Even in 8 years, I don’t think misogyny has grown that much more versus more people just being more comfortable showcasing it. Harris also already had more votes than HRC got in 2016 and the count isn’t even over yet. Maybe a few voters stayed home because they refused to vote for a woman, but this many millions of people? My point is, everything I see at this moment tells me that we cannot fall on misogyny being a core reason why Harris lost. That is not what the data is showing so far, and I might to a step further and say that if a woman was our nominee in 2020, she would have won given how the pandemic looks like it created an anomalous election. I’ll eat my hat if I’m wrong and see more evidence of this, but when we regroup we really need to dig deep and focus on allllll the reasons.

I don't think a woman would have won in 2020, and I don't think the misogyny is as blatant as someone saying "I won't vote for a woman" in most cases. I think much of it is subconscious (e.g., the research showing women have to produce more to be perceived as equally competent). And Harris has both sexism and racism to battle.

All of that said, I'm in full agreement that we should be thinking of all of the reasons, not solely blaming it on misogyny and racism.

[dior]

Kalama just called Trump to congratulate him on his win, if I were Kamala, I would have not called him to congratulate him on his win but Kamala is very classy for doing that

[dior]

Nov 5, 2024 23:25:03 GMT -5 fernweh said:

I turned off the tv but 270towin.com currently has it 226 Harris to 230 Trump with 86 uncalled. We are still very much in it and if you compare the map to 2020 so far the races that have been called line up pretty closely.

I don’t know if manifesting works but we have to try! We are going to win this shit!

I sure love your optimism, I just wish it came true! 

[mrsukyankee]

I posted this on FB: I just don't have the words to express all that I'm feeling. I'm on the bus into work and holding back tears. I'm thinking of my friends and family in the US whose lives will likely be majorly affected. I think of the potential impact on the world. I feel horror.

And some asshole that I apparently know decided to post this - Don’t be sad for us be happy for us!!

Fuck her.

[lahoagie]

Nov 6, 2024 8:58:43 GMT -5 taratru said:

Nov 6, 2024 8:03:40 GMT -5 abs said:

No. We can’t go there. Biden barely won in 2020. He wasn’t going to win this election either. People voted for Trump because groceries were cheaper in 2016. Most voters are incredibly uninformed about actual policy. I mean racism/sexism are always in play but I think we were always losing this election.

I agree with this 100 percent. I wonder what they will do in 2028 when their groceries are still expensive, their taxes have gone up, and everything else costs more because of the actual economy? Will they vote differently? Will they have a new enemy to be afraid of? Will they get to vote at all?

My guess is the same thing that has happened in the past will. The policies that Biden/Harris will continue to prop up the economy for the next two to three years which the republicans will take credit for (fuck them). Then when their shitty policies finally start to impact everything democrats will get some kind of control and then they blame the democrats for the failing economy and democrats lose any control they might have had.

[sofamonkey]

Nov 6, 2024 15:04:28 GMT -5 mrsukyankee said:

I posted this on FB: I just don't have the words to express all that I'm feeling. I'm on the bus into work and holding back tears. I'm thinking of my friends and family in the US whose lives will likely be majorly affected. I think of the potential impact on the world. I feel horror.

And some asshole that I apparently know decided to post this - Don’t be sad for us be happy for us!!

Fuck her.

Yes, I got a “proud of you America” and I was so surprised by that one. Also a woman. Also can fuck all the way off.

[laladypoet]

How did we get the results so fast though?

[dior]

Electoral College in 2016

Clinton-227
Trump-306

Electoral College in 2024

Harris-228
Trump-312

It is really mind blowing that it is almost the exact same amount of votes

[Velar Fricative]

One thing I forgot would happen until I just saw some chatter elsewhere is that this has fed more fuel to voter fraud claims from
2020. MAGA people are floored that Harris got sooooo many fewer votes than Biden so that does not help with the fraud claims back then.

[mcppalmbeach]

Nov 6, 2024 14:03:44 GMT -5 dior said:

Kalama just called Trump to congratulate him on his win, if I were Kamala, I would have not called him to congratulate him on his win but Kamala is very classy for doing that

Agreed because you know he would have never.

[Jalapeñomel]

Why can't Biden blow things up with EOs...term limits, SL forgiveness, etc? Play by the Republican rule book?

[jeaniebueller]

I live in a red area, most trump voters I know don't really care for the guy but voted either because they always vote republican or because of the economy. The early voting helped Trump in a huge way, especially in the rural areas. i think that is a huge part of why he had so many gains, expanded voting times.

 

[jeaniebueller]

Nov 6, 2024 9:04:15 GMT -5 cous0226 said:

Biden wasn’t winning either even if he excelled in the debate. This wasn’t even close. The Trump campaign according to the Atlantic article thought they were sweeping with Biden in the race. So really nothing changed with Kamala. Lotz of work for the Dems.

Does no one in the electorate care that he will eliminate the ACA or about women’s rights. The numbers are just incredible.

this is my biggest fear, having a kid with a medical condition. fortunately my state has codified reproductive rights but i'm sick about the women in other states who are trapped.