Why do you think - GOP and economy

[fernweh]

I have been thinking about this a lot on why Republicans are perceived to be better with the economy. If you look back at the economic recessions of the 20th and 21st centuries MOST of them are correlated with a Republican president though obviously there are exceptions.

Maybe this sticks uniquely in my mind because I graduated college in 2007 during the Great Recession but I also correlate bad economies with the GOP.

So why does the public largely trust republicans with the economy more? Does anyone have any studies/articles on this that they would like to share?

[heygrey]

I think very few people are able to look outside of their own financial security at this exact moment. If the Republicans promise to lower taxes = I keep more money in my bank account = they are better with the economy. Never mind that all of the services I may need to access are completely gutted which could lead to catastrophic financial ruin. FEMA I'm looking at you.

[sent]

No articles to share. Just vibes where I'm wondering when I'll be applying for PPP part 3. I'm still appalled that the party of bootstraps had not saved for a rainy day to weather COVID shutdowns. Instead they eagerly doled out the free monies to "save"/fleece us.

*I'm talking about the businesses like Shake Shack and Ruth Chris and the LA Lakers who lined up for PPP and all the PPP grifters, not the regular people who lost their jobs. Regular people said things like "this is the first time I feel like I can pay my bills and breathe" when it came to the COVID stimulus money. That should have been a wakeup call that the corps are hoarding ALL THE MONEY and not paying their hardworking AMERICAN employees a true living wage. We're all screwed and we are living this nightmare now. 

[ellipses84]

Because people are idiots and think the President controls the economy when it’s a delayed reaction. So Bush 2 has an ok economy, destroys it, Obama takes over in 2008 at the worst point of the housing crisis, fixes it, Orange takes over, destroys it but he sends people a covid check with his signature when they really need it, Biden takes over gets inflation down to 2.4% but grocery prices are high, 🍊 tax cuts for rich people are still in place until 2025 and decades of republicans fighting wage increases mean people think the economy is worse. Most people don’t understand basic economics and the Google search for tariffs skyrocketed the day after the election. Republicans have been preaching trickle down economics for decades but economists have known for decades that it does not work!!!

[ellipses84]

I’ll look for some articles later, but some great books to read are:

Poverty, By America
by Matthew Desmond

The Sum of Us : What Racism Costs Everyone and How We Can Prosper Together
by Heather McGhee

These are the Plunderers : How Private Equity Runs—and Wrecks—America
by Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner

These authors also have done a lot of podcast interviews you can listen to.

ETA: To add Authors / clarification.

[sunnysally]

I think Republicans have very strong messaging that **insert group here** are coming to take your job, your hard earned money, and are living off of your hard work. It is more palatable for people to believe that it is someone else's fault. Republicans have been encouraging a culture of fear since before my lifetime because it works.

[konapoppy]

I think people conflate how the stock market performs vs the cost of goods. Both are often referred to as “the economy”. I also think there is a gap in understanding that inflation cooling doesn’t mean prices are going down- they are increasing at a lower rate.

[neverfstop]

I think there are several factors at play here...I've read a ton on cognitive bias but overall i think it's multi-faceted.

Racism: "the welfare queen" from the 80's, the illegals all using the resources when in fact they contribute more taxes, the makers vs. takers divide

Self bias: those people don't deserve the help/aid/welfare but *I* do because XYZ (the coal mine shut down, the natural disaster) or my family worked hard back when (while fortgetting all the generational wealth, ease of upward mobility in the past, etc.)

Structural issues: when middle income people get 'tax credits' or mortgage deductions or college financial aid or tax free Roth IRA's, they don't see that as a government hand out (when it is in fact a subsidy) and only think welfare/SNAP recipients are undeserving or taking more than what's fair

Business issues: I do think it's hard to be a small business & it feels easy to blame government regulations/requirements when gov doesn't do enough to reign in "big businesses" that are crushing local/smaller competitors

Wealth inequality & self-perception: How many discussion have we had here about "Who is middle class?" Everybody thinks they are but nobody feels that way. Social media has really amplified the FOMO- seeing how everybody else is living large or indulging while you are struggling. Constantly being blasted with 'your life should look better' is really a mind fuck... (houses, cars, clothes, kids, travel, cooking, remodeling, etc.) it's harder than ever to feel like you are keeping up with the Jones because the algorithm always shows you something better or nicer than you have

Fiscal responsibility & lies: It kills me the GOP calls for balanced budgets only when Dems are in charge & will jack up the deficient when they want tax cuts for the wealthy. People still see them as trying to reign in spending with their fucking constant threats to shut down the governemnt instead of being willing to negotiate a budget that cuts spending & raises income. Thus the get to farscially claim to be the party of fiscal responsibility and cutting everything, while all the dems wan to do is spend on social programs.

[neverfstop]

Nov 10, 2024 12:25:25 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

I’ll look for some articles later, but some great books to read are:

Poverty, By America

The Sum of Us

These are the Plunderers

These authors also have done a lot of podcast interviews you can listen to.

I've read the first two & they are heartbreaking & enraging. Is the last one Plunder? (By Brendan Ballou) about how private equity is decimating businesses & privatizing all the wealth? I've read that one too & I'm convinced we're living in the next gilded age/ robber baron era.

[notsopicky]

ellipses84, thank you for the book recommendations. I already owned Poverty, By America so I've picked that back up today. I just got Plunderers from the library and put The Sum of Us on hold.

neverfstop, your post is highly on point. Thank you.

[sakoro]

For the last few cycles, Dems are in the position of cleaning up Republican economic messes and the Republicans claim victory.

The oil shocks of the late 1970s weren’t Carter’s fault but they led to his defeat. Reagan came in, economy recovered slowly and people remember the 1980s as a prosperous time, even though he was deregulating and dismantling unions- setting the stage for inequality and shrinking middle class.

Clinton took over from Bush Sr and cleaned up the 1992 recession. However, he was a “New Democrat” and didn’t undo Reagan’s policies. By 2000, most people had forgotten about the recession and Bush Jr took over.

Obama took over from Bush Jr and cleaned up the financial crisis which took forever because it was such a deep recession. He couldn’t put any big programs to help the middle class in place (exception Obamacare) because the tax base shrank so much and we were spending on two massive wars.

Trump took over from Obama when the economy was finally prosperous again. He spent on tax cuts (that didn’t help middle class) and deregulated including allowing private equity to buy residential housing as I recently learned. Then Covid happened but voters recognized that this was a random occurrence not generated by a party. Then Trump sent out stimulus checks with his name all over it— even though it came from congress and our tax dollars.

Biden inherited an awful economy and had to clean up Trump’s mess. He couldn’t spend on large scale social programs because he was trying to get inflation down.

Something I as a college educated economics major don’t understand is why housing and food are still so high and well-paying jobs so hard to find even though the official statistics say the economy is doing well? At a local project manager conference the Friday before the election, there were so many people looking for work (several big companies have done layoffs within the past 6 months). Several people told me that they can only find temporary work that pays much less— not enough for our current cost of living which much higher than pre-COVID. Also, some of the local biotech companies have been taken over by private equity and they are trying to squeeze all the value out before they close it down. I didn’t come away from the conference feeling confident about the economy. People were openly talking about “the recession” even though we are officially in a growth period. Normally good economic news means that companies start hiring, but that isnt the case this year.

If the current economy doesn’t make sense to me, what would a person working in the trades think?

[ellipses84]

Nov 10, 2024 12:50:30 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Nov 10, 2024 12:25:25 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

I’ll look for some articles later, but some great books to read are:

Poverty, By America

The Sum of Us

These are the Plunderers

These authors also have done a lot of podcast interviews you can listen to.

I've read the first two & they are heartbreaking & enraging. Is the last one Plunder? (By Brendan Ballou) about how private equity is decimating businesses & privatizing all the wealth? I've read that one too & I'm convinced we're living in the next gilded age/ robber baron era.

It sounds similar, but it’s

These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs—and Wrecks—America
by Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner

[mention]notsopicky [/mention]

[mention]sakoro [/mention] This book talks all about Private Equity. I’ll make a separate post about the construction industry when I have a chance.

[Jalapeñomel]

Taxes, taxes, taxes

[ellipses84]

Nov 10, 2024 14:31:45 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Taxes, taxes, taxes

Republicans Lies, Lies, Lies
(directed towards them, not you)

You know how much of our taxes go to the things Republicans support, like the military, police and prisons? Or $$$$ for Government Contractors - I bet we could cut some wasteful Gov’t spending out of that for administration and costs, although tariffs are going to make it more expensive!!!

[ellipses84]

Nov 10, 2024 13:20:17 GMT -5 sakoro said:

Something I as a college educated economics major don’t understand is why housing and food are still so high and well-paying jobs so hard to find even though the official statistics say the economy is doing well? At a local project manager conference the Friday before the election, there were so many people looking for work (several big companies have done layoffs within the past 6 months). Several people told me that they can only find temporary work that pays much less— not enough for our current cost of living which much higher than pre-COVID. Also, some of the local biotech companies have been taken over by private equity and they are trying to squeeze all the value out before they close it down. I didn’t come away from the conference feeling confident about the economy. People were openly talking about “the recession” even though we are officially in a growth period. Normally good economic news means that companies start hiring, but that isnt the case this year.

If the current economy doesn’t make sense to me, what would a person working in the trades think?

I think some of the layoffs are a ripple effect from the tech industry and the impact of AI. I’ve been feeling like the Stock Market is a rich person scam and companies are constantly expected to do better and better every year, which is impossible for workers, especially with Private Equity involved, so they lay people off to make numbers look good and everything goes to shit. Any Gov’t tax breaks, like the 🍊 tax breaks to AT&T, are going to stock buybacks and bonuses. They laid off a bunch of employees after that.

As for the trades, they’ve been pretty busy because there’s been a qualified worker shortage, especially with Electrical and they have still been catching up from Covid, but it’s starting to slow down as projects finish up. We’ve been seeing that start to hit the front end - the design side - which is the first step in any project. The projects that are moving forward are cutting things to bare bones to build them, which impacts some of the trades. I think this is just a lull or dip, which often happens in an election year. Developers want certainty and to know who will be President to plan for the next 4 years. They usually ask us to move as fast as possible and election years are like slow down, take forever to make decisions, let’s ask for a permit extension and not build yet, let’s make changes to save money, which often have to go through permitting again…Part of it has to do with high interest rates. Developers won’t build if they can’t get ROI. Even Developers who self-finance still use a similar Pro-forma to those who get bank financing. We desperately need housing but the construction costs went up with 🍊’s previous tariffs, covid inflation and rising labor costs, and new tariffs will make it way worse. There were tariffs on steel which we get a lot of from China and wood which we get a lot of from Canada. Sometimes these can be swapped out for each other based on timing/cost and supply/ demand but ultimately all the costs are going up and we don’t have the raw materials in the US. The housing industry thought Harris would have been better for affordable housing and 🍊 might be better for anti-regulation. I have strong opinions that Harris is far better for the American people in this regard and the tariffs are just going to make the housing shortage immeasurably worse that no change in regulation could make up for, not to mention changing regulations could be dangerous and have long term impacts.

Business that are busy:
Healthcare / Biotech / Tech (mostly data centers)
Renovations from natural disaster damage
There is a lot of multi-family housing being built in my blue state but there there’s a ton of local Gov’t support for it, it’s in a bit of a lull and SFH areas are being NIMBY about it.

Businesses that are slow:
Workplace
Other commercial / retail / restaurant - this has been slow for a long time and most of what is going on is mixed-use with housing

[lilac05]

I really think it boils down to this for most people (keep in mind this board is VERY different than most people when it comes to this topic):

People believe that the GOP is better for the economy because the GOP says it over and over and over.

That’s it. (And democrats spend most of their time messaging about the importance of social support systems, which to many/most people just means spending more money, which means more taxes for them.)

[chickadee77]

Nov 10, 2024 15:57:45 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

I really think it boils down to this for most people (keep in mind this board is VERY different than most people when it comes to this topic):

People believe that the GOP is better for the economy and say the GOP says it over and over and over.

That’s it. (And democrats spend most of their time messaging about the importance of social support systems, which to many/most people just means spending more money, which means more taxes for them.)

A million times this.

I know people that are verrrry R and they say, "Well, we would love to support all of these social problems but need money to do that, and the Rs are good at that part. So let's get out of debt and THEN take care of the rest."

But, uh, that's not how it works.

[ellipses84]

I generally try not to say his name or hear his voice, but from now on for the next 4 years, anything negative having to do with high prices, the economy, inflation or tariffs shall be referred to as TRUMPFLATION.

I heard there were people putting sticker pics of Biden on gas pumps with him pointing at the price saying “I did that”. We can do the same near the next election. Post it notes in the grocery store with Trumpflation. Let’s make sure the Republicans get credit for their 💩 economy.

Someone pointed out to me some people’s memory issue may be due to the fact that during covid we were basically in a welfare state which is true. I was unemployed for a short time then and now. With the extra covid $$ on top of regular unemployment we were totally fine and basically on a normal budget minus things like gas money and work lunches. Currently, unemployment isn’t even enough to pay housing or health insurance costs. Also, some younger voters were on their family health insurance and are now dealing with student loan payments and health insurance premiums for the first time. I just heard health insurance premiums are expected to go up in 2025 under Trumpflation. <<< See how easy that was 😉

[notsopicky]

My insurance premiums are going up 15%. For less coverage (meaning, more OOP for me). Thanks, Trumpflation (I say that TIC b/c we already knew they were going up, before the election). And related, PBMs can miss me with their bullshit.

Now I'm wondering if they'll go up MORE. 😡😡

[penguingineer]

Nov 10, 2024 12:29:52 GMT -5 konapoppy said:

I think people conflate how the stock market performs vs the cost of goods. Both are often referred to as “the economy”. I also think there is a gap in understanding that inflation cooling doesn’t mean prices are going down- they are increasing at a lower rate.

Have you seen that Geico commercial where the adults are talking about “the economy.” The little boy asks “What’s the economy?” And the mom, realizing she doesn’t know the answer, says “What isn’t the economy?”

Which is funny, because seriously, we don’t know.

[konapoppy]

Nov 10, 2024 17:55:58 GMT -5 penguingineer said:

Nov 10, 2024 12:29:52 GMT -5 konapoppy said:

I think people conflate how the stock market performs vs the cost of goods. Both are often referred to as “the economy”. I also think there is a gap in understanding that inflation cooling doesn’t mean prices are going down- they are increasing at a lower rate.

Have you seen that Geico commercial where the adults are talking about “the economy.” The little boy asks “What’s the economy?” And the mom, realizing she doesn’t know the answer, says “What isn’t the economy?”

Which is funny, because seriously, we don’t know.

Truly. It’s some fact and some fiction (like the stock market).

And so many disruptions caused by climate change and tech, it’s a wild time.

[mrspez07]

neverfstop
Your points are dead on what I heard in my house growing up.

[Beeps (WOT?*)]

Right.Wing.Media

Echo chambers

And what you hear first is what you remember. Whether it is fact or not. It takes a LOT of re-education to unlearn something you already "know."

I think this is as good a place as any to post this.


newrepublic.com/post/188197/trump-media-information-landscape-fox?fbclid=IwY2xjawGe9NNleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHYwan_FhNKrWfRtG12rvXCMTpNMoxDeZMHdlC503Is0lRtbdvyiuOHgAQg_aem_DY5u6cphzkivyF1LHDRi8Q 

I haven’t even gotten to the economy, about which there is so much to say. Yes—inflation is real. But the Biden economy has been great in many ways. The U.S. economy, wrote The Economist in mid-October, is “the envy of the world.” But in the right-wing media, the horror stories were relentless. And mainstream economic reporting too often followed that lead. Allow me to make the world’s easiest prediction: After 12:00 noon next January 20, it won’t take Fox News and Fox Business even a full hour to start locating every positive economic indicator they can find and start touting those. Within weeks, the “roaring Trump economy” will be conventional wisdom. (Eventually, as some of the fruits from the long tail of Bidenomics start growing on the vine, Trump may become the beneficiary of some real-world facts as well, taking credit for that which he opposed and regularly denounced.)

I've already seen commentary on gas prices having gone down the day after the election. The stock market went up the day after the election... Mostly from folks talking to each other on social media the day after the election. "Gas is $2.88/gallon here in Texas..." or whatever.)

Re: FEMA (as heygrey pointed out) haven't you heard that FEMA wasn't on the ground in time? And that they passed by houses with Trump signs? THAT is right wing media that has seeped into "general public information." We need LEFT wing media to step up to the plate and counter this better. Jeff Bezos did us no favors with WaPo refusing to endorse Kamala Harris. Democracy truly died in the dark this campaign.
(I wonder how it would have differed if he was still married to Mackenzie or if she got WaPo or at least some editorial control, in the divorce.)






4

[livinitup]

1- Because the Republicans won’t stop say so, in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

2- We ***all of us*** don’t have enough language to express what’s going on in the economy. And I mean, we don’t have enough words - literally.

Right now, people are experiencing “economic uncertainty” and see prices going up all over the place. Big hikes like houses (and even rent) are out of reach, and everyday expenses like eggs. So, everyone is saying “OMG, look at this inflation. Inflation is so high! Inflation is bad. We have to fix inflation.”

It’s not “inflation”. It’s wages. Wages have not kept up with a growing and healthy economy. If you had more money in your paycheck to pay for groceries and rent, you would feel like the economy was doing well and you could afford the lifestyle your parents had. Because you would actually be affording it. Wages were much, much higher 50 years ago (in real dollars). But because the only **words** we have for higher prices is “inflation” we miss the actual problem and actual solutions. A solution like - not funnel the huge profits to a couple people at the top of the hugely profitable company & stockholders, instead funneling to workers in increased wages. There is enough money in the economy it is just being hoarded but 1-3% of the population.

If we had WORDS to explain the economy we would. As long as Republicans say it’s “inflation” and the solution to inflation is “tax cuts” (like it’s the god damn 1970s), we are not going to fix the real problem for 98% of the economy.

[sent]

I filled my tank up on Thursday (Halloween) night before the election. The attendant handed me the receipt and I had to do a double take at the posted prices because the total seemed quite off than my usual total - gas prices had gone down!

But were there reels and TikToks being made to promote this point by the current administration? Yes I know the sitting president doesn’t control gas prices at my local station but the average person thinks it does.

[stuffandthings]

Side note: how did "the price of eggs" become the shorthand for inflation this year? I've noticed it everywhere and I'm kind of interested in that. Because...as a person who keeps backyard chickens, there was a rather obvious event that occurred to make eggs and chicken more expensive last year, and I feel like no one outside of backyard chicken keepers seems to remember it?

[Bad Dingo]

Nov 11, 2024 10:21:51 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

Side note: how did "the price of eggs" become the shorthand for inflation this year? I've noticed it everywhere and I'm kind of interested in that. Because...as a person who keeps backyard chickens, there was a rather obvious event that occurred to make eggs and chicken more expensive last year, and I feel like no one outside of backyard chicken keepers seems to remember it?

Right? It's bird flu.  Maybe people should consider that having less regulation and a dismantled EPA and FDA would only make the price of eggs worse?

[stuffandthings]

Nov 11, 2024 10:23:47 GMT -5 Bad Dingo said:

Nov 11, 2024 10:21:51 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

Side note: how did "the price of eggs" become the shorthand for inflation this year? I've noticed it everywhere and I'm kind of interested in that. Because...as a person who keeps backyard chickens, there was a rather obvious event that occurred to make eggs and chicken more expensive last year, and I feel like no one outside of backyard chicken keepers seems to remember it?

Right? It's bird flu.  Maybe people should consider that having less regulation and a dismantled EPA and FDA would only make the price of eggs worse?

It was SO BAD last year (and this spring/summer, too). I didn't lose any birds but my friends a few streets away lost about 75% of their flock. The Wisconsin DNR was panic emailing us all last autumn reminding us to "enforce biosecurity standards." I feel like I took it for granted that people knew that there was/is a massive bird flu pandemic circulating but now I'm starting to think lots of people didn't know...

[fernweh]

Nov 11, 2024 10:21:51 GMT -5 stuffandthings said:

Side note: how did "the price of eggs" become the shorthand for inflation this year? I've noticed it everywhere and I'm kind of interested in that. Because...as a person who keeps backyard chickens, there was a rather obvious event that occurred to make eggs and chicken more expensive last year, and I feel like no one outside of backyard chicken keepers seems to remember it?

Not to mention and maybe it didn’t get enough attention but the person in charge of setting prices for Kroger admitted to price gouging specifically on staples like milk and eggs.

www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2024/09/30/price-gouging-and-other-dirty-tricks-kroger-albertsons-merger/

[Beeps (WOT?*)]

Nov 10, 2024 14:43:26 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

Nov 10, 2024 14:31:45 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Taxes, taxes, taxes

Republicans Lies, Lies, Lies
(directed towards them, not you)

You know how much of our taxes go to the things Republicans support, like the military, police and prisons? Or $$$$ for Government Contractors - I bet we could cut some wasteful Gov’t spending out of that for administration and costs, although tariffs are going to make it more expensive!!!

Yup. This.
Do you know how many think the Trump tax cuts were GREAT for them? Without thinking/realizing that "Hey, for the first time in forever, I've actually PAID taxes instead of gotten a refund this year?" once the "tax cuts" went into effect? Folks were having this epiphany and discussing it across social media (that I saw) only *after* the election and Trump won. Because "the economy."

AND THE DEMOCRATS NEED TO DO BETTER MESSAGING, ESPECIALLY ON MILITARY AND VETERANS since that's what the Republicans care about. This is from AF Times, which is the Air Force (and therefore "conservative and acceptable") newspaper, widely available free of charge on Air Force bases (and by subscription to anyone.)

www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/homelessness-among-veterans-drops-to-record-low-levels/ar-AA1tSjfj?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=59f808ef16e64159a7ea06b584ef4528&ei=38

The number of homeless veterans in America dropped to its lowest level on record this year, down more than 55% over the last 14 years, according to data released by the Department of Veterans Affairs on Monday.

The improvement comes after three years of aggressive efforts by department leaders to quickly find permanent housing for veterans facing economic hardship and mental health challenges. Officials announced earlier this fall they had helped place nearly 48,000 veterans in stable housing in fiscal 2024 alone, and more than 133,000 over the last three years.

The estimate of veterans dealing with homelessness comes from the Department of Housing and Urban Development's annual point-in-time count, conducted each January. This year, face-to-face surveys across the country found 32,882 veterans living on the street without stable housing, a reduction of about 2,700 individuals from the 2023 count.

Homeless vets set to receive more housing help

In a statement, VA Secretary Denis McDonough called that estimate an encouraging sign.

"No veteran should experience homelessness in this country they swore to defend," he said. "This year's PIT Count shows that VA and the entire Biden-Harris administration are making real progress in the fight to end veteran homelessness. We still have a long way to go, but we will not stop until every veteran has a safe, stable place to call home."

In 2010, President Barack Obama announced a nationwide push to end homelessness among veterans, an ambitious goal that advocates hailed as a turning point in outreach efforts to struggling veterans. That included better tracking of the number of homeless veterans, since that data had not been monitored on a reliable basis.

And yet the Republicans are going to get credit for THIS too.