Week of 11/12 Updated Results & Chat

[ellipses84]

I think I’ve gone through all the stages of grief twice and I’m back at angry this morning 😡

We’ve been doing soul searching recriminations for a week but the west coast still isn’t even done being counted. It will be interesting to see what the final demographic breakdowns are. Although for future Presidential elections, I suppose we really need to evaluate and target the demographics for the swing states.

CA is 76%, OR is 87%, and WA is 92% counted. I’m actually glad to see that CA turnout was better than it seemed like it would be, but it’s not as high as it should be, probably between 55-60%. It’s hard to predict because they automatically mail out 22 million ballots so they don’t know how many they are going to get back for days. CA has the highest % of Kamala voters aside from DC and MA and with such a large population, that does bridge the gap in the popular vote. Currently there’s 146 million total popular votes (156 million in 2020) and she’s behind by around 3.2 million. By the time all is counted, it might only be 6-7 million less voters this election, not 20 million like people originally said. Not that great of a feeling if she loses by 2.5-3 million instead of winning by 7 million. I think a lot of the CA and NYers were spending all their time, money and effort in swing states the last 90 days instead of their home states, knowing we’d go blue and that probably impacted the popular vote.

For a Democratic win we really needed 66% turnout everywhere or better and I thought we had the excitement to get that 😭

AZ had 250k ballots that needed to be cured in Maricopa County (biggest bluest / Phoenix) that didn’t get cured. A judge denied the request to extend the curing deadline because they attempted to contact everyone. Hopefully it was remorseful 🍊 voters. 😭

[mrspez07]

Colorado's 8th congressional district (newest established after 2020) splits pretty evenly between red and blue. It flipped red 48.98% to 48.2%. His ads were horrible maga talking points.

www.cpr.org/2024/11/10/republican-gabe-evans-wins-colorados-8th-congressional-district/

For those needing a map of the district for context:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado's_8th_congressional_district

[ellipses84]

I fear “mass deportations” are already happening voluntarily. I know someone in a high level community volunteer position. He showed up to an event on Saturday to give out an award and it struck me as odd because I wasn’t expecting him to do it until next week. He sent out an email this week saying he’s leaving his volunteer position and they are looking for a replacement. It was under the guise of retirement / traveling internationally, but this is sudden to not have a replacement or finish out the year. We live close to the border and there’s lots of people who go back and forth or families who have immediate members born on both sides, so if they want to live on the U.S. side some are living here undocumented.

In also know a ton of people trying to get international work visas or move out of their red or swing states. Obviously leaving swing states isn’t the answer but I can understand while they feel disheartened. Since Texas was supposed to be within 1% of flipping and now I’m not so optimistic for 2028, I think our solution is to have huge #s of blue Texans move to swing states with less oppressive state governments.

[neverfstop]

CA will be counting for quite a while still....I think this is an important narrative (talking point?) to keep in mind.
Plus think of all the people in solidly blue states that just stayed home.

Donald Trump’s Mandate Is a Myth
www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-mandate-myth-175155368.html


Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824.

Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It was 0 in 2016 & 2020.)

The GOP is on track for smallest House majority since there were 50 states.

[erbear]

I don't know where to put this but I don't get it. There is a house in my neighborhood that is flying a huge Trump banner out front and a "Let's Go Brandon" flag from the house. Now they have a "Thank you Joe" sign out front. Am I missing something?

[penguingrrl]

Nov 19, 2024 14:33:12 GMT -5 erbear said:

I don't know where to put this but I don't get it. There is a house in my neighborhood that is flying a huge Trump banner out front and a "Let's Go Brandon" flag from the house. Now they have a "Thank you Joe" sign out front. Am I missing something?

I’m guessing they’re implying that Biden would have won and by stepping down and supporting Harris he handed Trump the election.

[erbear]

Nov 19, 2024 14:37:42 GMT -5 penguingrrl said:

Nov 19, 2024 14:33:12 GMT -5 erbear said:

I don't know where to put this but I don't get it. There is a house in my neighborhood that is flying a huge Trump banner out front and a "Let's Go Brandon" flag from the house. Now they have a "Thank you Joe" sign out front. Am I missing something?

I’m guessing they’re implying that Biden would have won and by stepping down and supporting Harris he handed Trump the election.

ooooohhhhhh. Yeah, that tracks.

[spinnaker5]

I don’t want to bump the thread on the Washington Post’s decision to not endorse so I’ll put this here: a quarter of a million subscription cancellations to date, per NY Magazine: 
nymag.com/intelligencer/article/jeff-bezos-cracks-down-on-the-washington-post.html

“Even before 250,000 digital readers unsubscribed from the Washington Post in protest, the paper was on track to lose at least as much money as it lost last year: $77 million. A deputy managing editor shared the figure in a recent meeting with reporters and editors, per multiple sources. The editor did not say what the added impact of the non-endorsement exodus would be, according to those present. “Mind-blowing,” as one staffer put it. “The level of anger is through the roof, and fear is also through the roof. There’s huge concern that Bezos is going to pull the plug.”

That doesn’t seem likely, at least in the near term. Instead, owner Jeff Bezos — and his already controversial publisher pick, Will Lewis — seems determined to fix the paper, whether the current staff likes it or not. Meanwhile, there has yet to be an official acknowledgment of the 250,000 canceled subscriptions that came in response to Bezos spiking a planned Kamala Harris endorsement shortly before the election, a figure first reported by NPR and later confirmed by the Post’s own media reporter. “The top stories that do well convert 200 readers to subscribers,” a staffer noted. “You’re doing your best work, hoping you convert 200 subscribers. And we lost 250,000 through naïveté and poor decision-making.”

I know views vary about this and there was a fair amount of debate in the original thread. I cancelled my auto-renewal, full disclosure, and started a subscription to The Guardian (UK). I am happy to pay to support good journalism (including The Atlantic, NPR, Politico, and others) but felt that canceling WaPo was the most direct way to convey how utterly appalled I was that the organization that led the coverage of Watergate became a gutless, craven toady right up there with Graham, McConnell, Collins, and all the people who know better.