Shrinking RI Likely to Lose a House Seat

[LoveTrains]

:-( :-( :-( :-( :-(
I realize its only one seat, but to have it go to Texas would be terrible. That is also one less vote for the electoral college, too.

Rhode Island Likely to Lose a House Seat

From the NYT - www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/us/politics/shrinking-rhode-island-likely-to-lose-house-seat.html?ref=us

By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
Published: January 8, 2013

It may seem early to be thinking about the redistribution of House seats that will take place after the Census in 2020, but one state, Rhode Island, is being forced to because its population is declining.

The tiny state was already singled out a year ago as one likely to lose one of its two House seats in 2020 after the Census Bureau released its estimated population figures.

Now, there is further evidence that Rhode Island’s second seat could be on the chopping block.

According to population estimates released last month, only two states — Rhode Island and Vermont — lost people from July 2011 to July 2012. Vermont lost more (581) than Rhode Island (354), but Vermont already has only one House seat. All states are required to have at least one.

Since 2004, Rhode Island has lost more than 24,000 people, surpassing, according to The Providence Journal, any of its previous decade-to-decade losses. The population in July was estimated to be 1,050,000.

William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, said it was unlikely that Rhode Island would continue to lose people at that same rapid rate. “The long-term scenario will be at best tepid population gain,” he said. But as the national economy improves, people will continue to leave.

“It’s quite likely that the state could lose a Congressional seat, as it barely retained its second seat after the past census,” Mr. Frey added. “If it loses its second seat, it will be the first time the state had one seat since 1793.”

For three decades, starting in 1912, Rhode Island had three House seats. A state’s population helps determine the amount of federal money it receives, and the number of House seats determines the number of electoral votes each state has in presidential elections.

Other states like New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois could also be on track to lose a seat in 2020 because their population growth is not as strong as that in the mountain west and the southeast.

The biggest winner after the 2020 Census is likely to be Texas, which at this rate is projected to gain three seats; California and Florida are each likely to gain one.

Susan Strate, population estimates program manager at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute, attributed the population drain in Rhode Island to a combination of factors.

“There were more deaths, fewer births, an older population and a general outflow of people to the South and the West that’s been happening for years,” she said, though the number of births still exceeds the number of deaths.

Also, she said, the points of entry for immigrants to this country have shifted over the years away from the Northeast, which used to be where immigrants first settled. All of these factors mean there are fewer people of childbearing age in the state to replenish the population.

Edward M. Mazze, a former dean and current business professor at the College of Business Administration at the University of Rhode Island, said the lack of jobs and high taxes had also driven some residents away.

When he used to raise money for the college, he said, he spent much of his time in Florida because so many people from Rhode Island had moved there. “Naples, Fla., is known as Rhode Island of the South,” he said.

A version of this article appeared in print on January 9, 2013, on page A16 of the New York edition with the headline: Rhode Island Likely to Lose a House Seat.

[Deleted]

the answer to this is you obviously need to start procreating ;D

[marie427]

I know it's talking about population and not physical size, but reading that Rhode Island is shrinking made me chuckle.

SIL's fiancee is originally from RI. She while her parents and grandparents are still there, she's 30 and says a lot of younger people are leaving. Even though Vermont lost population too, the rest of New England hasn't so there has to be several factors, like the article said. I thought that a lot of people from MA were moving to RI for cheaper housing costs though (if they commute to work in Boston) - I guess that hasn't been enough to prevent the population decrease?

[msmerymac]

I guess RI needs an oil boom!

[marie427]

Jan 9, 2013 12:08:09 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

I guess RI needs an oil boom!

Or invade and take over Connecticut!

[soozy87]

Or to start having babies.

[LoveTrains]

Jan 9, 2013 11:40:22 GMT -5 marie427 said:

I know it's talking about population and not physical size, but reading that Rhode Island is shrinking made me chuckle.

SIL's fiancee is originally from RI. She while her parents and grandparents are still there, she's 30 and says a lot of younger people are leaving. Even though Vermont lost population too, the rest of New England hasn't so there has to be several factors, like the article said. I thought that a lot of people from MA were moving to RI for cheaper housing costs though (if they commute to work in Boston) - I guess that hasn't been enough to prevent the population decrease?

Housing in RI is much cheaper than in Boston, that is for sure. We live in Providence and my H works in Boston. There are tons of people that he sees every day on the train and are his "train friends."

However the biggest issue is that property taxes and actually most taxes are higher in RI than they are in Mass, which is funny given the name of Taxachusetts. I was SHOCKED when I moved here from Mass and got my first car tax bill, which I always complain about over on MM.

Also I have a condo in Mass and now a house in RI, and my property taxes are basically double what they are in Mass for something that is assessed at the same value. But part of the high tax issue might be that Providence taxes themselves are super high compared to other cities/towns in the state.

I also saw my congressman again at the gym yesterday. He better hope that people start liking him more, my guess is if we went to one district he would probably lose against the other guy.

[SusanBAnthony]

Love trains, I just figured out your old nest name. I feel like a total moron that I missed it for this long.

[LoveTrains]

Yeah I changed it a while ago - maybe like in spring 2011? But I was on the nest since 2006. Sometimes I think that I get no responses ever on CEP because you folks haven't figured it out yet. Or y'all just don't like me, its cool.