The deeply indebted college graduate has become a stock character in the national conversation: the art history major with $50,000 in debt, the underemployed barista with $75,000, the struggling poet with $100,000.
The anecdotes have created the impression that such high levels of student debt are typical. But they’re not. They are outliers, and they’re warping our understanding of bigger economic problems.
In fact, the share of income that young adults are devoting to loan repayment has remained fairly steady over the last two decades, according to data the Brookings Institutions is releasing on Tuesday. Only 7 percent of young-adult households with education debt have $50,000 or more of it. By contrast, 58 percent of such households have less than $10,000 in debt, and an additional 18 percent have between $10,000 and $20,000.
“We are certainly not arguing that the state of the American economy and the higher education system is just great,” Matthew Chingos, a Brookings fellow and one of the authors of the new analysis, told me. “But we do think that the data undermine the prevailing sky-is-falling-type narrative around student debt.”
The misperceptions matter because they distract us from the real trouble with our higher education system. It’s not the graduates of expensive colleges who are struggling to get started on a career. Such graduates make for good stories (and they tend to involve the peer group of journalists), but history suggests that most of them will do just fine.
The vastly bigger problem is the hundreds of thousands people who emerge from college with a modest amount of debt yet no degree. For them, college is akin to a house that they had to make the down payment on but can’t live in. In a cost-benefit calculation, they get only the cost. And they are far, far more numerous than bachelor’s degree holders with huge debt burdens.
The solutions to the dropout crisis have some overlap with the solutions to the so-called student-debt crisis: more accountability for colleges. For the most part, though, the two issues are different — and require different answers. Lifting the nation’s college graduation rate depends on better, more cost-effective education, rather than merely cheaper education.
I realize that the stories of student debt are so common and visceral that many readers will view the Brookings argument with some skepticism. So let me walk through it.
The first thing to acknowledge is that student debt has risen over the last two decades. In 2010, 36 percent of households with people between the ages of 20 and 40 had education debt, up from 14 percent in 1989. The median amount of debt — among those with debt — more than doubled, to $8,500 from $3,517, after adjusting for inflation.
Some of the increase stems from the encouraging fact that more people are going to college. Contrary to popular belief, average tuition at private (nonprofit) colleges has not increased any faster than overall inflation over the last decade, once financial aid is taken into account, according to College Board data. Well-off students are paying more, but many middle- and low-income students are not.
At public colleges, however, tuition really has increased. Average net tuition and fees have risen more than 50 percent over the last decade, to $3,120 for in-state students. The recent cuts to higher-education budgets in some states, like Pennsylvania, play a role.
But even with tuition rising, several other factors have helped hold down debt burdens. The incomes of college graduates have grown since the early 1990s. And the repayment time for many loans has become longer. This combination creates perhaps the most surprising fact from the Brookings data:
The share of income that a typical student debtor has to devote to loan payments is only marginally higher than it was in the early 1990s — and somewhat lower than it was in late 1990s. It was 3.5 percent in 1992, 4.3 percent in 1998 and 4 percent in 2010.
Maybe even more surprisingly, the burden for the people with the most debt is significantly lower today than two decades ago. Someone at the 90th percentile of debt had to devote 15 percent of her income to repayment in 2010, down from 20 percent in 1992.
All of which is to say that student debt is indeed a problem for some young people today, but that it’s not a new phenomenon. For most, the returns on a college education have more than kept pace with the cost.
What explains the widely held notion to the contrary? I think it stems in large part from the fact that Americans are legitimately frustrated about the economy’s performance over the last 15 years. But when you start looking at the evidence that blames student debt, it can be flimsy.
For example, recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggested that student loans were keeping some young adults from buying homes. But Beth Akers, one of the authors of the Brookings analysis, notes that the Fed’s data stretches back only to 2003. The pattern may well be real — and have existed for decades.
“The evidence,” Ms. Akers says, “doesn’t support the notion that student loan debt is creating a drag on the economy.”
She carefully notes that more research might ultimately turn up such evidence, given that student debt has risen. For now, though, the anxiety about student debt has a lot in common with the scare stories that have historically accompanied an expansion of credit to the masses. The reality is that debt allows the middle class and poor to afford many staples of a good life, be it a house, a car or an education. Unlike houses or cars, education at least brings a healthy financial return.
With all this being said, the Brookings paper does contain a true cause for concern: “Among households with some college but no bachelor’s degree, the incidence of debt increased from 11 to 41 percent.” The average amount of debt among this group also more than doubled over the last two decades. Some members of the group are thriving community-college graduates, but more are college dropouts.
Those dropouts point to some of the big flaws that our higher-education system does have. Many colleges graduate fewer than half of the students they enroll — and resist policy makers’ attempts to hold them accountable for their results. Some public universities devote much of their financial aid to students who do not need it most, creating hardship for others. And recent state budget cuts have caused painful tuition increases on many campuses.
If you want to argue that American universities charge too much money for too little education, you can make a pretty good case. But the people paying the real price for those failings aren’t the ones who fit the clichés.
Post by lasagnasshole on Jun 24, 2014 7:59:35 GMT -5
Only 7 percent of young-adult households with education debt have $50,000 or more of it.
So basically, I just made extra special bad life choices?
And when do I cease being a "young adult"? We're 32 and 33 and still have at least $150k in student loans between us. And a house down the street from us just went on the market for $750k. WHEEEEEEEE!
Only 7 percent of young-adult households with education debt have $50,000 or more of it.
So basically, I just made extra special bad life choices?
And when do I cease being a "young adult"? We're 32 and 33 and still have at least $150k in student loans between us. And a house down the street from us just went on the market for $750k. WHEEEEEEEE!
according to this only 7% of people under 30 completed a masters degree or higher. I'm guessing that's where the high debt levels come from.
Only 7 percent of young-adult households with education debt have $50,000 or more of it.
So basically, I just made extra special bad life choices?
And when do I cease being a "young adult"? We're 32 and 33 and still have at least $150k in student loans between us. And a house down the street from us just went on the market for $750k. WHEEEEEEEE!
according to this only 7% of people under 30 completed a masters degree or higher. I'm guessing that's where the high debt levels come from.
Still, I'm pretty sure I'd be farther ahead right now if I'd started working right after college, when I had minimal debt. I spent my first 4 years out of law school earning BA money but paying on JD debt.
I nodded along with this entire article. I'd like a follow up article about why there are so many drop-outs.
I know a good many people who enjoyed a good "party" experience rather than an education with those student loans. It is not all the fault of the college/universities. There is some individual accountability for attention to their studies as part of this equation too.
Only 7 percent of young-adult households with education debt have $50,000 or more of it.
So basically, I just made extra special bad life choices?
And when do I cease being a "young adult"? We're 32 and 33 and still have at least $150k in student loans between us. And a house down the street from us just went on the market for $750k. WHEEEEEEEE!
according to this only 7% of people under 30 completed a masters degree or higher. I'm guessing that's where the high debt levels come from.
Thank you. I was wondering why that percentage was so small, and then I realized it's because the percentage of people with grad degrees is so small but most people I know have them (and most people I know have SL debt as a result, which is why my perception is so different).
How do you not know that you need to pay this back, and that will impact your finances? It is basic math! You borrow - you need to pay it back and that costs more than the amount you borrow. A quick visit to a calculator can give you the facts. People do not stop to examine how it will impact their finances - which is not the fault of the university, anymore than it is the fault of a credit card company or car dealership if you over extend yourself.
Post by Velar Fricative on Jun 24, 2014 8:45:36 GMT -5
Also, I would love to see statistics to back this up but I'd like to see what SL debt is like in some of our most HCOL cities where younger people are moving to for jobs (NYC, DC, Bay Area, etc.). Yes, SL debt will probably be close to zero in East Bumblefuck so I am wondering if that's bringing the higher numbers from the big expensive cities down.
I'm not saying their numbers are wrong or anything, and I personally always thought the art history majors with $200,000 in SL debt were rare even though they're used as common examples, but I don't think Brookings is telling the full story either.
This is something I haven't really thought about before. I too would like to know the data on drop-outs. Without really knowing, I would lean towards a combination of irresponsibility, struggling financial pictures or not prepped for college. It makes me wonder how many people dropping out are students that aren't well prepared for college, but are boxed and shipped off to a traditional 4-year experience because it is the thing to do nowadays. When instead they should be looking at vocational training, associates degrees, certifications and other avenues that aren't necessarily "college" that high schools sell to students.
Only 7 percent of young-adult households with education debt have $50,000 or more of it. By contrast, 58 percent of such households have less than $10,000 in debt, and an additional 18 percent have between $10,000 and $20,000.
At public colleges, however, tuition really has increased. Average net tuition and fees have risen more than 50 percent over the last decade, to $3,120 for in-state students. The recent cuts to higher-education budgets in some states, like Pennsylvania, play a role.
I do disagree with the above snippets of the article. I think the debt numbers may be misleading, especially if they don't include Parent Plus loans and such. They may not be the student's debt, but those loans do affect the financial picture and I'd be curious to know whether those figure include that. I also want to know how many of these students don't have debt because their parents took out a second mortgage, or were able to scrape up just enough money to afford it with a slight detriment to themselves. I think that is overlooked because college costs are raising, so what is the next generation supposed to do if their parents could barely afford to send them to college?
I'm also laughing at the $3,120 for in-state students. I don't know any public university that is only 3 grand for tuition and fees a year. Maybe the author means per semester, because otherwise I don't know any school that is that cheap.
Also, I would love to see statistics to back this up but I'd like to see what SL debt is like in some of our most HCOL cities where younger people are moving to for jobs (NYC, DC, Bay Area, etc.). Yes, SL debt will probably be close to zero in East Bumblefuck so I am wondering if that's bringing the higher numbers from the big expensive cities down.
I'm not saying their numbers are wrong or anything, and I personally always thought the art history majors with $200,000 in SL debt were rare even though they're used as common examples, but I don't think Brookings is telling the full story either.
I bet you'd find it's not that dire in the Bay Area compared to other HCOL areas. Engineering degrees are cheap compared to a JD.
I'm also laughing at the $3,120 for in-state students. I don't know any public university that is only 3 grand for tuition and fees a year. Maybe the author means per semester, because otherwise I don't know any school that is that cheap.
That part jumped out to me, too, but note that it says "net" tuition and fees so that's after all of the financial aid.
Overall it doesn't surprise me that on average public university tuition has risen much more quickly than private over the past decade. States have really been cutting back on support for higher ed. In my state, public universities typically get <10% of their budget from the state, which is frankly hardly enough to be considered public anymore, IMO.
Thank you. I was wondering why that percentage was so small, and then I realized it's because the percentage of people with grad degrees is so small but most people I know have them (and most people I know have SL debt as a result, which is why my perception is so different).
Don't forget all of our artist friends from our very expensive undergrad with top notch theater and film programs!
Post by Daria Morgandorffer on Jun 24, 2014 9:22:16 GMT -5
The huge problem among my circle of friends is that many of us decided to take out student loans for "living expenses" and then just lived the high life for a year or two. Seriously, I have 25k of loan debt that did not pay for anything nearly related to education. I don't know if there are stricter policies now on what the money is used for, but I'm pissed that my idiot 18 year old self was able to get ahold of 15k in fun money with an hours work.
I'm also laughing at the $3,120 for in-state students. I don't know any public university that is only 3 grand for tuition and fees a year. Maybe the author means per semester, because otherwise I don't know any school that is that cheap.
That part jumped out to me, too, but note that it says "net" tuition and fees so that's after all of the financial aid.
Overall it doesn't surprise me that on average public university tuition has risen much more quickly than private over the past decade. States have really been cutting back on support for higher ed. In my state, public universities typically get <10% of their budget from the state, which is frankly hardly enough to be considered public anymore, IMO.
Reading fail on my part. It makes so much more sense now. Thanks!
The huge problem among my circle of friends is that many of us decided to take out student loans for "living expenses" and then just lived the high life for a year or two. Seriously, I have 25k of loan debt that did not pay for anything nearly related to education. I don't know if there are stricter policies now on what the money is used for, but I'm pissed that my idiot 18 year old self was able to get ahold of 15k in fun money with an hours work.
My sister is in college now and she was being offered a ridiculous amount in SLs that she didn't need at all. So yes, it's still happening despite this being the norm when I started college 14 years ago too. She only accepted what she actually needed for tuition but I think it's insane that kids are being tempted with the money they don't need. Yes, they need to be smarter about accepting only what they need and I am certainly not saying they deserve no blame but that doesn't absolve loan companies from blame here either IMO. And then of course I blame the federal government too for enabling Sallie Mae and shit to be able to offer people like my sister double what they actually need for expenses. Blame all around!
How do you not know that you need to pay this back, and that will impact your finances? It is basic math! You borrow - you need to pay it back and that costs more than the amount you borrow. A quick visit to a calculator can give you the facts. People do not stop to examine how it will impact their finances - which is not the fault of the university, anymore than it is the fault of a credit card company or car dealership if you over extend yourself.
And usually 18 year olds make such great life decisions....so strange how they don't always do this.
The huge problem among my circle of friends is that many of us decided to take out student loans for "living expenses" and then just lived the high life for a year or two. Seriously, I have 25k of loan debt that did not pay for anything nearly related to education. I don't know if there are stricter policies now on what the money is used for, but I'm pissed that my idiot 18 year old self was able to get ahold of 15k in fun money with an hours work.
My sister is in college now and she was being offered a ridiculous amount in SLs that she didn't need at all. So yes, it's still happening despite this being the norm when I started college 14 years ago too. She only accepted what she actually needed for tuition but I think it's insane that kids are being tempted with the money they don't need. Yes, they need to be smarter about accepting only what they need and I am certainly not saying they deserve no blame but that doesn't absolve loan companies from blame here either IMO. And then of course I blame the federal government too for enabling Sallie Mae and shit to be able to offer people like my sister double what they actually need for expenses. Blame all around!
It blows my mind that 18 year olds aren't considered responsible enough to drink beer or rent a car by themselves, but they're fully expected to be responsible enough to resist the tens of thousands of dollars in credit thrown at them.
How do you not know that you need to pay this back, and that will impact your finances? It is basic math! You borrow - you need to pay it back and that costs more than the amount you borrow. A quick visit to a calculator can give you the facts. People do not stop to examine how it will impact their finances - which is not the fault of the university, anymore than it is the fault of a credit card company or car dealership if you over extend yourself.
And usually 18 year olds make such great life decisions....so strange how they don't always do this.
Plus, most 18 year olds think they will start out with a salary of 100k or something, so the loans are no biggie, bc they'll pay them back right away.
This information in the article though is interesting to me. I think my perspective is skewed like others have said bc EVERYONE I know has significant SL debt, but I dont think I know anyone without a graduate degree of some sort, most likely a law degree (or at least 1/2 of a married couple has the grad degree). I live in a bubble.
And usually 18 year olds make such great life decisions....so strange how they don't always do this.
Plus, most 18 year olds think they will start out with a salary of 100k or something, so the loans are no biggie, bc they'll pay them back right away.
This information in the article though is interesting to me. I think my perspective is skewed like others have said bc EVERYONE I know has significant SL debt, but I dont think I know anyone without a graduate degree of some sort, most likely a law degree (or at least 1/2 of a married couple has the grad degree). I live in a bubble.
I think it's also worth mentioning that 18 year olds are constantly told "go to college!! You'll make so much more money! It's your ticket to success!" I mean, even the President has basically said as much. You hear it CONSTANTLY that people who go to college make so much more money than those who don't. So it's not surprising that 18 year olds would be like "well, it's no big deal, I'll make plenty to be able to pay it off!" That's the message we're bombarding them with.
And usually 18 year olds make such great life decisions....so strange how they don't always do this.
Plus, most 18 year olds think they will start out with a salary of 100k or something, so the loans are no biggie, bc they'll pay them back right away.
This information in the article though is interesting to me. I think my perspective is skewed like others have said bc EVERYONE I know has significant SL debt, but I dont think I know anyone without a graduate degree of some sort, most likely a law degree (or at least 1/2 of a married couple has the grad degree). I live in a bubble.
And it's not just that they think they'll make 100k.
It's that everyone from counselors to parents to your Aunt Minnie tells you that you're smart and you'll be able to use your degree to be successful and make money and pay back your loans.
Nobody tells you you when you're headed off to college that you can expect to be making 33k and living with 4 roommates when you're 25 because the job market is over-saturated.
I'm also laughing at the $3,120 for in-state students. I don't know any public university that is only 3 grand for tuition and fees a year. Maybe the author means per semester, because otherwise I don't know any school that is that cheap.
That part jumped out to me, too, but note that it says "net" tuition and fees so that's after all of the financial aid.
Overall it doesn't surprise me that on average public university tuition has risen much more quickly than private over the past decade. States have really been cutting back on support for higher ed. In my state, public universities typically get <10% of their budget from the state, which is frankly hardly enough to be considered public anymore, IMO.
But if the student is required to repay that financial aid, how can they say it's not part of the tuition? I can see deducting grants/scholarships, but deducting student loans is artificially lowering their estimates for cost of tuition.
Plus, most 18 year olds think they will start out with a salary of 100k or something, so the loans are no biggie, bc they'll pay them back right away.
This information in the article though is interesting to me. I think my perspective is skewed like others have said bc EVERYONE I know has significant SL debt, but I dont think I know anyone without a graduate degree of some sort, most likely a law degree (or at least 1/2 of a married couple has the grad degree). I live in a bubble.
I think it's also worth mentioning that 18 year olds are constantly told "go to college!! You'll make so much more money! It's your ticket to success!" I mean, even the President has basically said as much. You hear it CONSTANTLY that people who go to college make so much more money than those who don't. So it's not surprising that 18 year olds would be like "well, it's no big deal, I'll make plenty to be able to pay it off!" That's the message we're bombarding them with.
Don't forget study abroad! Colleges and programs are selling their study abroad programs so hard now that you would think everyone study abroads and it is the best thing to ever happen and you can pay back everything later because the experience will pay for itself with jobs and there is no better time to travel than right now. (Not that I think study abroad is useless or horrible, just that I feel like some programs/schools use somewhat predatory tactics on students.)
My sister is in college now and she was being offered a ridiculous amount in SLs that she didn't need at all. So yes, it's still happening despite this being the norm when I started college 14 years ago too. She only accepted what she actually needed for tuition but I think it's insane that kids are being tempted with the money they don't need. Yes, they need to be smarter about accepting only what they need and I am certainly not saying they deserve no blame but that doesn't absolve loan companies from blame here either IMO. And then of course I blame the federal government too for enabling Sallie Mae and shit to be able to offer people like my sister double what they actually need for expenses. Blame all around!
It blows my mind that 18 year olds aren't considered responsible enough to drink beer or rent a car by themselves, but they're fully expected to be responsible enough to resist the tens of thousands of dollars in credit thrown at them.
Right? I was a fucking idiot until I was at least 22.
I think this is a good article. I know I've said before on here that the highest default rates for borrowers are those going to for profits and community colleges. There's a lot of struggling people out there that are told that a college degree opens doors, and hey, you can do it at night and take your time and when you get out, you will have so many opportunities!!!! The financial aid office lets them know they can borrow more in loans than tuiton costs, and the next thing you know, they are financing car repairs and braces for their kid and just generally living on it to make ends meet, all the while believing that there's some magic high paying job out there when they finish. And then they don't finish, and everything crashes down around them.
That's a huge problem. States don't have enough resources to crack down on these predatory programs. (Private citizens tried to do it in California, but the 9th Circuit threw the class action lawsuit out last year because arbitration.) There's been some government attempts to crack down, and I think the FTC is going after one large group right now. But because most of the country thinks like lys, and believes that this is a personal responsibility problem, and not in any way a misuse of government funds problem on the part of the organizations loaning and accepting the money, there is not a collective will to enact reform or devote resources to going after these schools, and shutting them down or better regulating them.
How do you not know that you need to pay this back, and that will impact your finances? It is basic math! You borrow - you need to pay it back and that costs more than the amount you borrow. A quick visit to a calculator can give you the facts. People do not stop to examine how it will impact their finances - which is not the fault of the university, anymore than it is the fault of a credit card company or car dealership if you over extend yourself.
Where to start? (Also, why do I bother?)
The medical community is in widespread agreement that the brain does not fully develop until you are in your early to mid-twenties. It is widely know and accepted that young people do not make decisions in the same way that adults do, not because they are fucking lazy morons as you seem to think, but because of the stage of the development of their brain processes information differently. I know you were born with the brain of a crotched 70 year old and have always made adult decisions and judgments, but science has established that's not really how most people operate.
So one of the problems with your reasoning is that you are expecting people with brains that have not developed to the point where they are capable of making major life decisions to make excellent major life decisions. Science says they won't do this. We can't treat 18 year olds as if they have the foresight, knowledge, wisdom, and capacity for reasoning that adults do because they do not.
Second, it absolutely is the fault of the university. Most of them are nonprofits. They are given accreditation, given non-profit tax exempt status, and eligibility to participate in the federal student aid program. These things are benefits that taxpayers confer on the universities in exchange for them providing educational services without the aim of making a profit. Caveat emptor does not apply to nonprofit organizations. And with respect to the for profit ones, these entities are suckling entirely at the government teat. They would not exist if people could not borrow federal money to attend them.
Ultimately, what it comes down to is the fact that we as taxpayers are backing a completely ineffective and inefficient program. We are lending money to people who are either ill-equipped to make a decision to borrow, or so desperate that they do not consider the consequences. The money is available because taxpayers have elected to make it available because we consider access to education important. And yet people are defaulting at record rates, finding it hard to make a return on their investment. So what are taxpayers getting out of it? A University of Phoenix in every county?
For someone with so much rage towards Solyndra, it completely baffles me that you cannot see this racket for what it is. Pull your head out of your ass. The problem isn't the 18 year olds here. The problem is the mentality that it is the 18 year olds fault. This is taxpayer money that the schools are misusing and they absolutely should be held accountable.