In College Football, The Blowouts Are Getting Even Bigger

[IIOY]

From today's WSJ:

When the best college football teams get to pick their own opponents, the games tend to be blowouts, and in recent years the increasingly gaping margins of victory have grown laughable.


The teams, which are divided into conferences loosely by geographic region, play 12 games each season. Conferences schedule the eight or nine games each team plays within its conference, and those tend to be the tougher contests. The remaining three or four games—the split varies by conference—are set up by the individual teams, who select opponents at their own discretion.


Some pick tough challengers, and there also are traditional rivalries. The University of Southern California, for example, plays Notre Dame each year in a nonconference game that USC says is among its most difficult.


But those choices aren't typical.


Using data from the website Sports Reference, the Journal examined 40 years of nonconference games played by teams ranked in the top 20 at the beginning of each season and found that margins of victory have widened, teams are less likely to choose opponents who are also ranked, and almost all of the easy victories happen at home.


In other words, the teams picked pushovers.


From 1974 to 1983, half the games were won by 12 points or more. In the past 10 years, half the games were won by at least 23 points—more than three touchdowns. And even worse, humiliating routs of five or more touchdowns have doubled, to 30% in recent years from 15% in the earlier years.


On occasion, ranked squads faced each other. That happened 18% of the time in the first 10 years of the Journal's analysis but only 7% of the time in the last 10 years.


Against unranked opponents, the teams won 82% of their games in the first 10 years, a lopsided success rate that climbed to 89% in the last 10 years.


Several things may have contributed to the widening win-loss margins. Changes in conference alignment, which occur every few years, or the addition of a 12th regular season game in 2006, could have had an effect. Teams, influenced by the money at stake in championship games, may have sought out ever weaker opponents to improve their chances to compete. Or there could simply be a bigger talent gap between elite teams and others.


The most obvious motive for lining up soft opponents is to improve win-loss records for the sake of bowl contention. Less obvious, perhaps, is that some teams treat nonconference games, which tend to be played in September, like preseason football, giving experienced teams a chance to tune up and allowing greener teams to build confidence and develop skills.


"Some schools might be able to play a more difficult schedule," said Joe Castiglione, director of athletics at the University of Oklahoma. "Others realize there are certain years they are not as a strong, but they need the opportunity to win, build confidence, and meet the minimum threshold to qualify for a bowl game."


There are also economic forces at work. Teams want to play as many home games as possible to please fans and sell tickets, and to squeeze in more home games, top-tier teams will pay less formidable teams to come to their stadium to play.


"When Penn State plays Kent, it may be one-sided, but there are still 95,000 people in the stands who are excited to see a game," said Oliver Luck, who is director of athletics at West Virginia University and father of NFL quarterback Andrew Luck.


Scheduling philosophies vary, but a few basics come into play.


"It's a balance between three things," said Steve Lopes, a senior associate athletic director at USC. "Having a game that is competitive that you feel like you can win, competing with someone the fans want to see, and helping you get ready for the conference schedule."


The considerations for underdogs, though different, are no less important to those teams. Underdogs are generally are paid $300,000 to $1 million to face a marquee teams, a windfall for teams that have far fewer resources than ranked teams.


Playing better teams also calls attention to their own football programs and, on rare occasions, the underdogs stun their hosts with upsets that, when they happen, become legendary. Appalachian State's 2007 victory over No. 5 Michigan is regarded by many as the greatest upset in college football history.


"Teams that are not accustomed to playing top level teams are getting a chance to do it, and it cannot be lost in this conversation how important that opportunity is to those schools," said Bill Hancock, executive director of the College Football Playoff. "There is a chance to go to a stadium you've seen all your life on TV and play a game there."


However, the blowout trend may be about to be curtailed.


The College Football Playoff replaces the Bowl Championship Series this year, and among other improvements it intends to put greater emphasis on strength of schedule in determining which teams will compete for the national championship. Television networks prefer exciting games for broadcasts. And blowouts may have contributed to the lagging attendance the Journal recently reported.


"There has been a steady drumbeat from fans," Mr. Luck, who serves on the College Football Playoff committee, said. "For example, I've never heard someone say, you should schedule Towson more often."


West Virginia University beat Towson University 54-0 in week two this year. Towson collected $300,000 for the thumping.



"It won't completely dry up," Mr. Luck said, "but it won't be as common."

[lilibet]

There have been some pretty big blowouts with Big Ten teams so far this season, week 3 OSU beat Kent 66-0. But it's painful being on the opposite end, same week Washington beat Illinois 44-19. That was painful. Granted Illinois isn't very good the last few seasons, but it's embarrassing as a fan.

[sushi]

It's not just for win/loss. The bigger the point spread the better your standing.

[eclaires]

I do think we'll see a shift over the next few years with the playoffs instead of the BCS. The formula for the BCS made wins/losses the most important (basically had to be undefeated to even contend for the championship) and the point spread was figured in, too. Strength of schedule was in there, too, I think, but it wasn't enough of a factor to overcome wins/losses especially if you're in one of the main conferences. So the non conference opponents weren't usually tough opponents.

[terpsfan]

We've pretty much signed up for this fate. $ talks. 10/4 should be fun!