Fewer divorces- mostly upper/middle class marrying

[zoegirltx]

Earlier this week, Claire Cain Miller ran the numbers:



About 70 percent of marriages that began in the 1990s reached their 15th anniversary (excluding those in which a spouse died), up from about 65 percent of those that began in the 1970s and 1980s. Those who married in the 2000s are so far divorcing at even lower rates. If current trends continue, nearly two-thirds of marriages will never involve a divorce, according to data from Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist



ZYet, it’s still conventional wisdom that half of marriage end in divorce. David Watkins largely blames that myth on social conservatives:



Obviously, one reason the myth persists is that is serves the purposes of social conservatives, and they promote it. First, in their search for a reason to deny marriage rights to same sex couples, they largely settled on “marriage is a fragile institution in crisis, and worked to make it immune from new evidence.



Second, though, and more importantly I suspect, it demonstrates rather clearly that to the extent that they were narrowly correct about a relationship between feminist advances and rising divorce rates, more recent trends show that those same advances are a big part of the story of the subsequent decline in divorce.



Dougherty focuses instead on how “marriage patterns are becoming more narrowly class-based than before”:



The data shows that people who already succeed in many aspects of their life are making successes of their marriages. Far from a progressive dream, we may be returning to the two worlds of aristocracy. A married upper class and an unmarried peasantry is exactly what you see when you look at the British Isles in the early 20th century. Those living in converted Abbeys could keep their marriages together, but 65 percent of Ireland’s population was unmarried at the same time, the highest portion in the Western world of that era. There’s just more incentive to hold together the “estate of marriage” when the married couple have property that might qualify as an estate.



It’s a downer, I know. But far from a trendline of unqualified marital bliss, the prospects for marriage look bleak. And the improved prospects for a certain class of married person may not be caused by liberal values at all, but may be a side effect of concentrated inequality.

[laurenpetro]

a zoe article! YAY!

[tacosforlife]

Oh, I saw this yesterday and meant to post it. Bottom line: being a college educated feminist is good for my marriage.

[eclaires]

I heard this on the radio this morning. They said that the prediction for people married in the 90s and 2000s was a 70% chance of staying married and the 50% chance of divorce is no longer true/hasn't been true for awhile.

One of the things they mentioned on the radio was people getting married later and people living together before marriage, and subsequently breaking up instead of getting married.

[tacosforlife]

Dec 5, 2014 11:02:25 GMT -5 mryrcn said:

I was married the first time in the 90's.

We all did things we regret in the 90s.

I had a white girl 'fro. It was tragic.

[tacosforlife]

Dec 5, 2014 11:25:37 GMT -5 @soudesafinado said:

Dec 5, 2014 11:21:40 GMT -5 tacosforlife said:

We all did things we regret in the 90s.

I had a white girl 'fro. It was tragic.

White person curly hair + cut way too short + no clue how to style it = close to the shape of a fro. It was....not a good look for me.

The funny thing is that years later, I cut my hair to about the same length, but I understood styling product and made it look decent.

[tacosforlife]

(Also, if that was like the worst thing ever to say, please tell me and I'll never say it again. I'm feeling very much like I just stepped in it.)

[penguingrrl]

I feel like society's attitude on living together before marriage has changed drastically (overall, I know there are stil many people who oppose it). I wonder how much impact that shift has had. My sister lived with several people and was engaged to two of them then moved out and broke up before meeting her husband. There is no doubt in my mind that ha she married either former fiancé (or the other two she loved with) it would have ended in divorce. Instead she lived with them for a few years, figured out it didn't work and moved on. Y divorced mother (married in the 70s) strongly encouraged us to live with people before making that big a commitment as a result of her experiences. Almost everyone I know with divorced parents said the same.

[tacosforlife]

Dec 5, 2014 11:34:41 GMT -5 @soudesafinado said:

Dec 5, 2014 11:32:32 GMT -5 tacosforlife said:

(Also, if that was like the worst thing ever to say, please tell me and I'll never say it again. I'm feeling very much like I just stepped in it.)

No, I was trying to picture it. Cause I didn't remember your hair being especially curly.  

Aaaahhh. Yeah, it is curly. I wear it curly 99 percent of the time (it's possible it was straight last time I saw you, can't remember). But my mom has thin, fine, stick straight hair. She birthed a baby with a FULL head of hair that just got thicker and curlier. She had no clue what she was doing. I don't think I REALLY learned how to handle my hair until I was about 24.

[tacosforlife]

Dec 5, 2014 11:50:49 GMT -5 mryrcn said:

Dec 5, 2014 11:21:40 GMT -5 tacosforlife said:

We all did things we regret in the 90s.

I had a white girl 'fro. It was tragic.

I birthed a couple of alright kiddos so not everything was tragic.  I know there are some bitches up in here who were probably born in the 90's.  

Assholes.

[pinkdutchtulips]

Dec 5, 2014 11:23:19 GMT -5 @soudesafinado said:

Well I was married in 2007 and it ain't looking like I'll remarry anytime soon, so why the hell I gotta be the exception?

married in 07, divorced in 14 ... no plans to remarry anytime in the near future. count me in as an exception too !

that said, xh and I came from polar opposite EVERYTHING backgrounds .... his prison obtained GED was not a match for my UC BA .... I thought we could overcome the education divide but nope. it's not surprising that more upper/middle class marriages are thriving bc you've got 2 avg to above avg incomes going negating the financial stress that comes from 2 non degree holding households (AA, BA/BS, MA, Ph.D., JD, MD, MBA)

[jillboston]

I imagine social conservatives also hate the fact that the state with the lowest divorce rate is good ol' first in the nation gay marryin' liberal MA.

[cattledogkisses]

Maybe it was in the article and I missed it, but has the marriage rate stayed the same while the divorce date has been declining? I'm wondering if more people are just cohabiting/staying in a LTR without getting married.

[5thofjuly]

Dec 5, 2014 13:31:23 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Maybe it was in the article and I missed it, but has the marriage rate stayed the same while the divorce date has been declining? I'm wondering if more people are just cohabiting/staying in a LTR without getting married.

The marriage rate among college educated people has stayed largely the same. We delay marriage, but we do it eventually. Among the low income, though, cohabitation has replaced a lot of marriages.

What drives me nuts is that the divorce rate has NEVER been 50%. It's been around 43% at its highest, but was never 50%. That was a prediction that never came true, but got taken as gospel.

[Deleted]

Dec 5, 2014 10:55:50 GMT -5 eclaires said:

I heard this on the radio this morning. They said that the prediction for people married in the 90s and 2000s was a 70% chance of staying married and the 50% chance of divorce is no longer true/hasn't been true for awhile.

One of the things they mentioned on the radio was people getting married later and people living together before marriage, and subsequently breaking up instead of getting married.

OMG that means debauchery leads to stability! You hate the baby Jesus.

I get sooooooo tired of the assertion of that percentage to stop gay marriages from happening. It gets me back to "focus on your own family. "

In other news, my tablet keyboard wanted to change sooooooo into "so poop op."

[doobeedoo]

Dec 5, 2014 11:34:52 GMT -5 penguingrrl said:

I feel like society's attitude on living together before marriage has changed drastically (overall, I know there are stil many people who oppose it). I wonder how much impact that shift has had. My sister lived with several people and was engaged to two of them then moved out and broke up before meeting her husband. There is no doubt in my mind that ha she married either former fiancé (or the other two she loved with) it would have ended in divorce. Instead she lived with them for a few years, figured out it didn't work and moved on. Y divorced mother (married in the 70s) strongly encouraged us to live with people before making that big a commitment as a result of her experiences. Almost everyone I know with divorced parents said the same.

I thought there were studies in the past few years indicating that living together before marriage actually increases the likelihood of divorce?  Or maybe that has changed as well?  I chose not to live with DH (or anyone else before DH) for a number of reasons, mostly because I am somewhat traditional and also because I valued my independence too much to give it up before it was "official".  I am pretty sure, however, if DH and I had lived together prior to marriage that we wouldn't have gotten married. lol

[secretlyevil]

I had a white girl 'fro. It wasn't pretty. That's all I have to add to this thread.

[wise_rita]

You know what I want to see? Studies on the longevity of cutsey wedding dates: 07/07/07, etc.

[MrsAxilla]

Dec 8, 2014 1:37:15 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

You know what I want to see? Studies on the longevity of cutsey wedding dates: 07/07/07, etc.

We were married on 6/4/06, but considered 6/6/06.  It was on a Tuesday, though.  

[Velar Fricative]

Dec 8, 2014 1:37:15 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

You know what I want to see? Studies on the longevity of cutsey wedding dates: 07/07/07, etc.

Does Friday the 13th count? Nearing 6 years of marriage. Fuck yeah!

I did think I saw statistics that married couple who cohabitate before marriage are likelier to get divorced, as mentioned above. Hmmmm. I think I assumed that it was due to people cohabitation before marriage also having generally liberal views on divorce too.

[wise_rita]

Dec 8, 2014 7:43:41 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Dec 8, 2014 1:37:15 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

You know what I want to see? Studies on the longevity of cutsey wedding dates: 07/07/07, etc.

Does Friday the 13th count? Nearing 6 years of marriage. Fuck yeah!

I did think I saw statistics that married couple who cohabitate before marriage are likelier to get divorced, as mentioned above.

But it's not the 60's anymore. I'd bet the majority of couples live together nowadays before getting married.

[Velar Fricative]

Dec 8, 2014 8:06:24 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

Dec 8, 2014 7:43:41 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Does Friday the 13th count? Nearing 6 years of marriage. Fuck yeah!

I did think I saw statistics that married couple who cohabitate before marriage are likelier to get divorced, as mentioned above.

But it's not the 60's anymore. I'd bet the majority of couples live together nowadays before getting married.

And I just discovered a study from earlier this year that refutes the higher divorce rate for cohabitating couples anyway, my bad:

www.foxnews.com/health/2014/03/10/cohabitation-doesnt-cause-divorce-after-all/

[jeaniebueller]

Dec 5, 2014 13:54:18 GMT -5 5thofjuly said:

Dec 5, 2014 13:31:23 GMT -5 cattledogkisses said:

Maybe it was in the article and I missed it, but has the marriage rate stayed the same while the divorce date has been declining? I'm wondering if more people are just cohabiting/staying in a LTR without getting married.

The marriage rate among college educated people has stayed largely the same. We delay marriage, but we do it eventually. Among the low income, though, cohabitation has replaced a lot of marriages.

What drives me nuts is that the divorce rate has NEVER been 50%. It's been around 43% at its highest, but was never 50%. That was a prediction that never came true, but got taken as gospel.

I can never get around the idea that reducing the stigma of divorce and having a society that welcomes people to escape abusive/unhappy/regretful marriages is considered a bad thing, KWIM? I know this study isn't addressing that but whenever people cite the divorce rate and try to draw conclusions that society is going to hell in a handbasket because of it, I can't help but think its great that women (particularly) no longer have to stay married to an awful spouse if they dont' want to.

[saz]

Dec 8, 2014 1:37:15 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

You know what I want to see? Studies on the longevity of cutsey wedding dates: 07/07/07, etc.

Anecdote alert: I know a 6/7/08 couple who is divorced and a 7/7/07 couple who is still happily married.

[5thofjuly]

Dec 8, 2014 8:30:03 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Dec 5, 2014 13:54:18 GMT -5 5thofjuly said:

The marriage rate among college educated people has stayed largely the same. We delay marriage, but we do it eventually. Among the low income, though, cohabitation has replaced a lot of marriages.

What drives me nuts is that the divorce rate has NEVER been 50%. It's been around 43% at its highest, but was never 50%. That was a prediction that never came true, but got taken as gospel.

I can never get around the idea that reducing the stigma of divorce and having a society that welcomes people to escape abusive/unhappy/regretful marriages is considered a bad thing, KWIM? I know this study isn't addressing that but whenever people cite the divorce rate and try to draw conclusions that society is going to hell in a handbasket because of it, I can't help but think its great that women (particularly) no longer have to stay married to an awful spouse if they dont' want to.

I totally agree with you. I teach a family class and IF (only if) people ever ask me my opinion on divorce, I say something like, "I definitely believe that it's not a choice that people take lightly. But, if my best friend were seriously considering it, my advice to her would be that she only gets one shot at this life and to consider how she wants to spend it."

[jillboston]

Dec 8, 2014 8:17:34 GMT -5 asdfjkl said:

I'm putting this on my FB page. There will probably be drama from it. One of my friends who is actually fairly liberal told me a few months ago that she just really can't make herself care about the gay marriage issue. I said I cared about it and she said it just seemed like much ado about nothing. And then she launched off into really weird territory about the fall of Rome and the way the traditional marriage structure is necessary for society to remain in tact. I agreed but said it's the societal support and recognition of those marriages that creates that societal fabric. She quoted the 50% divorce rate.

Anyway, I'll be interested to see her thoughts on this. Looks to me like when people are allowed to marry who they love or not marry at all, that works out pretty well, all things considered.

And doesn't magically cause the failure of the straight marriages around them - 10 years in with marriage equality in MA - marriage still intact.

[lg28]

I don't want to get divorced after we just moved because holy hell that was stressful. I'm not even kidding. DH agrees.

[statlerwaldorf]

Dec 8, 2014 1:37:15 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

You know what I want to see? Studies on the longevity of cutsey wedding dates: 07/07/07, etc.

We were married on 07/07/07 and are still married.  There was a poster on the Bump that was married on the same day and was due around the same time as I was with my now 5 year old.  They got divorced shortly after having the baby.

[sunshine608]

Dec 8, 2014 8:43:09 GMT -5 saz said:

Dec 8, 2014 1:37:15 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

You know what I want to see? Studies on the longevity of cutsey wedding dates: 07/07/07, etc.

Anecdote alert: I know a 6/7/08 couple who is divorced and a 7/7/07 couple who is still happily married.

I'm was married on 06/07/08 and still married. June 7th was our (8th) dating anniversary though.

[taratru]

I about shit a brick earlier this year when I realized my first marriage would have been 20 years this year if we had stayed married. Married in 1994, divorced when my brain finished growing and I was an adult.

The 90s were a bad time for me. But my hair looked great.