Sanders surges ahead of Clinton in Iowa: poll

[downtoearth]

So I know he was ahead in Vermont (makes sense since it's his state), but he's also slightly ahead in New Hampshire.

I really want to like Bernie - I'm very liberal and align closely with his environmental views, but I still don't think I'd vote for him. Every time I hear him talk, I feel like he's got a good grasp of income inequality in the US, but his views on other issues are more along the lines, "Yeah, I totally feel that also, but if we fix income inequality, so much will be fixed." and I'm not sure I agree with that b/c fixing income inequality is going to be such a huge thing that he'll never to get to anything else during his tenure as president. 

We need that sort of focus on one main issue in the Senate and working with the White House and if he leaves the Senate, there aren't many who would take up the issues that Bernie works on leaving the president without support in Congress.   I'm open for evidence that Bernie is the real deal and can get things done and not just an intellectual, nice old man.

Oh and as far as the polls, it looks like a potential Biden is what is hurting Hillary's base more than Bernie actually surging ahead, but the WaPost probably didn't realize they were posting both these articles at once.

Article- Joe threat to Hillary's Base more than Bernie

------------

Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in Iowa: poll

www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/10/bernie-sanders-surges-ahead-hillary-clinton-iowa-p/

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has edged ahead of former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in the race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination in the early caucus state of Iowa and erased a 19-point deficit from just two months ago, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday.

Mr. Sanders was the choice of 41 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, followed by Mrs. Clinton at 40 percent and 12 percent for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who has not yet announced his 2016 intentions.

“Sen. Bernie Sanders has become the Eugene McCarthy of 2016,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “He is the candidate of the Democratic left, against his own party’s bosses and their prized presidential candidate, Secretary Hillary Clinton. Sanders has seized the momentum by offering a message more in line with disproportionately liberal primary and caucus voters.”

Mr. Sanders led Mrs. Clinton, 59 percent to 29 percent, among self-described “very” liberal voters, with Mr. Biden at 7 percent. He also led Mrs. Clinton 49 percent to 28 percent among men, with 16 percent for Mr. Biden, while Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Sanders 49 percent to 35 percent among women, with 9 percent for Mr. Biden.

Both Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden had better favorability and honesty ratings than Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Sanders had a 78 percent/6 percent favorable/unfavorable split and Mr. Biden had a 79 percent/9 percent split, compared to a 76 percent/20 percent split for Mrs. Clinton.

Ninety-one percent said Mr. Biden is honest and trustworthy, compared to 86 percent who said the same of Mr. Sanders and 64 percent who said the same of Mrs. Clinton, who has been dogged by questions over her decision to set up a private email system as secretary of state, rather than use a standard government account.

Eighty-five percent also said Mr. Sanders cares about voters’ needs and problems, compared to 84 percent who said the same of Mr. Biden and 78 percent who said the same of Mrs. Clinton.

“Unlike the late Sen. McCarthy, who came on strong just before the 1968 primaries, Sen. Sanders has seized the momentum, five months before voting begins in Iowa. History will eventually tell us whether he has made such a large move too soon,” Mr. Brown said.

“Although Vice President Joseph Biden received only 12 percent of the vote in this poll of likely Democratic Caucus-goers, he still may be a winner in the zero-sum game of presidential primary politics because it further increases questions about Clinton’s electability,” he said.

Mrs. Clinton did do better on the question of leadership qualities and ability to handle an international crisis. Ninety-two percent said she had strong leadership qualities and 89 percent said she has the right temperament and personality to handle an international crisis.

Seventy-six percent said Mr. Sanders has strong leadership qualities, compared to 81 percent for Mr. Biden. Sixty-five percent said Mr. Sanders had the right temperament to handle an international crisis, compared to 81 percent for Mr. Biden.

The survey of 832 likely Democratic caucus-goers was taken from Aug. 27 to Sept. 8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

[ESF]

It seems like this article is really stretching to make HRC look like she's in big trouble. Given the margin of error, Sanders and HRC are tied, and 12 points are going to a guy who (1) is not even running; (2) is perhaps even more establishment than HRC; and (3) has a voting record that is identical to HRC's.

And really, what is with this:

Both Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden had better favorability and honesty ratings than Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Sanders had a 78 percent/6 percent favorable/unfavorable split and Mr. Biden had a 79 percent/9 percent split, compared to a 76 percent/20 percent split for Mrs. Clinton.

Come on.

Sanders may eek out a couple victories in a few states, which I think would be good for the Democratic Party to see how liberal its base really is, and to encourage the party to move a little more to the left. But this idea that Clinton's popularity is waning or that she's in big trouble....the numbers don't really show that. She's got a 76% favorability rating.

The only story here is that the two candidates are running great campaigns.

[heyjude]

I'm feeling really nervous about Bernie. He has faced no right assault like HRC has. I would like all Bernie fans to imagine Bernie, the liberal atheist socialist from Vermont, as the D nominee, and imagine the slaughter that will befall him in a general by the GOP machine.

Not all Ds are liberal atheist socialists. This is a unique D contingent. This assualt will cause certain KEY D constituencies, that the Ds must have in their corner, to STAY HOME.

[oscarnerdjulief]

"Slaughter by the GOP machine..." which states do you think would vote for a 'typical' Dem that would not vote for Bernie?

I think the GOP would win if Bernie were the nominee, but which states do you think would turn? All the traditional swing states? It might be closer than you'd think.

[heyjude]

Sept 10, 2015 19:56:14 GMT -5 oscarnerdjulief said:

"Slaughter by the GOP machine..." which states do you think would vote for a 'typical' Dem that would not vote for Bernie?

I think the GOP would win if Bernie were the nominee, but which states do you think would turn? All the traditional swing states? It might be closer than you'd think.

Any state where Dems depend on minority GOTV I think could be impacted by a Bernie nomination.

[Velar Fricative]

I can't believe we still care what Iowa thinks. Rick Santorum once won Iowa, FFS. This scares me at at all.

But I also am fascinated by the two parties here. The Ds think Bernie is too liberal, but the Rs are falling over each other to prove who is most conservative.

[ESF]

Sept 10, 2015 21:04:44 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I can't believe we still care what Iowa thinks. Rick Santorum once won Iowa, FFS. This scares me at at all.

But I also am fascinated by the two parties here. The Ds think Bernie is too liberal, but the Rs are falling over each other to prove who is most conservative.

I don't know if it's that Bernie is too liberal. I'm really not that concerned about his policies. Sure, they are "big government" but I think the average middle class voter will like many of them. Bernie's problem is that by self identifying as a socialist, he alienates people and comes across as more interested in pushing an ideology than actually governing. That's not a message that resonates to people whose real lives do not involve having the luxury of navel gazing over a salon.com article while sipping artisan coffee. Like heyjude says, Bernie's problem boils down to the fact that he'll never have the kind of broad appeal that gets out the vote. It's not because of his policies, it's because of who he is and how he's campaigning.