Interesting. Do you remember back in 2007 when Clinton's nomination was considered inevitable and no one knew about Barack Obama? Wonder if that will happen to her again. In other news, Trump still has a substantial lead (vomit).
*****
The first wave of the YouGov/CBS News Battleground Tracker polled primary and caucus voters from both parties in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina
Hillary Clinton’s deficit among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire has grown to more than 20 points, while her lead over Bernie Sanders among likely caucus voters in Iowa has been reversed, according to the first wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker. Clinton remains ahead in South Carolina, where Joe Biden also makes a strong showing.
IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
The new poll finds Sen. Sanders with 52% support among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, while former Secretary of State Clinton, long considered the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic nomination, receives 30%. Recent polls have shown Sanders’ lead growing in the Granite State, but this would be the first to show the Vermont Senator over 50%.
Possibly more worrying for the Clinton campaign is her performance in Iowa, where Sanders now leads by 10 points, with 43% to Clinton’s 33%.
Until recently Clinton had retained an edge in Iowa, the other first-in-the-nation voting state along with New Hampshire. A recent CNN/ORC poll found the pair tied among likely Iowa caucus voters.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Vice President Joe Biden, who is rumored to be considering a run for the White House in 2016, receives only 10% support from Democrats in Iowa and 9% in New Hampshire placing him third in both states. Biden’s best performance is in South Carolina, where he has the backing of 22% of Democratic primary voters, matching Sanders’ 23%. Yet Clinton remains firmly in the lead there with 46% support.
THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION: IT’S STILL TRUMP
On the GOP side, Donald Trump continues to soar. But according to the poll, the outspoken billionaire is now joined in the top tier by another candidate from beyond the Beltway – former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
In Iowa, a quarter of likely Republican caucus voters tap Ben Carson as their top choice for the GOP nomination, putting him only 4 points behind Donald Trump. Accounting for respondents' second choice preferences, Carsion actually leads Trump narrowly.
Carson also comes in a strong second in South Carolina, where 21% of likely Republican primary voters back him and 36% back Trump. Sen. Ted Cruz is a distant third with 6%.
Trump’s most substantial lead is in New Hampshire, where he has the support of 40% of likely Republican primary voters. Carson comes in second again, but by a much greater distance, with only 12% support and a smattering of other candidates close behind him, including John Kasich at 9% and Carly Fiorina at 8%. Jeb Bush, who led most polls in New Hampshire throughout the early summer, is tied for fifth with Rand Paul, at 6%.
NON-POLITICIANS ON TOP
Notably, three of the top four candidates in New Hampshire have never held elected office (John Kasich, Ohio’s governor, is the exception) and in all three early states polled the majority of Republicans back one of two “non-politicians” – Trump or Carson – with every other candidate in single digits. Data elsewhere in the poll sheds some light on the phenomenon. Asked which one of four candidate qualities is most important to deciding their vote, Republican voters cited experience “getting things done” in the private sector more often than political acumen in all three states.
Rick Perry dropped out of the Republican race the day after the fieldwork for this poll was completed. It appears unlikely, however, that his exclusion would have had a significant impact on these findings; the former Texas governor never received more than 1% of first-choice preferences in any of the three states polled.
The Republican portion of the sample includes 610 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, 1002 in South Carolina, and 705 likely caucus voters in Iowa.
Gah. I'm so nervous that Trump and Sanders will both come out on top. And Trump will win.
We don't even know how the GOP will go after Sanders because he is a non entity now. But they will smear him in horrible ways. It will be nasty. We know the GOP playbook against HRC!!!!
Post by oscarnerdjulief on Sept 14, 2015 15:33:08 GMT -5
I disagree. I think Sanders is the one candidate where the Republicans won't do many attacks based on personality. They'll have too much to talk about with his universal health care and free public university tuition proposals. The former failed miserably even in Vermont, causing it to be scrapped. A nonentity whose name I can't even recall got so many votes against Shumlin that he wasn't re-elected and had to be SELECTED by the legislative body.
I disagree. I think Sanders is the one candidate where the Republicans won't do many attacks based on personality. They'll have too much to talk about with his universal health care and free public university tuition proposals. The former failed miserably even in Vermont, causing it to be scrapped. A nonentity whose name I can't even recall got so many votes against Shumlin that he wasn't re-elected and had to be SELECTED by the legislative body.
THIS IS WHAT IM TALKING ABOUT!!
The attacks will have nothing to do with his personality. Sanders is as dry as toast. What is there to say? The attacks will have everything to do with the fact that he is a Vermont leftist atheist socialist.
I'm..... actually starting to get a bit scared here. Like, really nervous. I watched trump's interview with Jimmy Fallon and the crowd response to him made me want to burn shit down. OMG, here I was expecting my daughters to grow up with the first female president and they might end up with TRUMP?!?!
I'm so pissed about that chummy chum softball interview.
Getting very nervous.
Democrats: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Democrats: letting the perfect get in the way of the good,
The sad truth is that the things that appeal to the good-hearted idealists about Bernie Sanders are the same things that appeal to the lowest common denominator types about Donald Trump. Americans are sick of entrenched politicians who say one thing out of the sides of their mouths and do another. They're tired of pandering. Both Bernie and Donald speak their minds at all times. The way Bernie Sanders stuck to his guns in the Lion's Den of Liberty University? Who else does that? And yet, of course he had actual finesse and tact that Trump lacks, but that's my preference showing.
The country is tired of the Clintons and the Bushes, and everyone else who's a part of the political machine. And neither Sanders nor Trump is bankrolled by corporate interests the same way.
This is a very strange time to be alive as a voter.
Interesting. I can see this to some extent, but I think what drives Trump supporters more than anything, including the desire to back someone who is not part of "the establishment," is xenophobia and racism. Sanders is basically the liberal's late response to Ron Paul. I always thought this, but it was confirmed when DS told H and I that as far as he could tell on his campus, everyone who isn't "a horrible person" is Team Bernie. A super old dude who is dry and dull, yet beloved by college students? Definitely saw that before.
I'm not nervous yet (and I actually like Bernie, but I don't see him winning a general election, so everything else is irrelevant), but Hillary should be, imo. I'm not at all nervous about Trump because there are too many people of color voting to allow that to happen. Best of luck to him becoming the Republican nominee and I truly mean that.
Post by msmerymac on Sept 14, 2015 19:59:03 GMT -5
This is what I've been saying! The Dems' decision to "anoint" HRC is bad, bad, bad. We're getting an "anyone but Hillary" type of desperation among some factions.
However, sometimes I try to convince myself Trump wouldn't be the worst. At least he's not a Crusade for Christ who thinks his religion makes him infallible and that only he knows the One True Way. Cruz and Santorum are insufferable in that regard. Trump thinks he knows the One True Way because he's Trump and the entire presidency would be for his own benefit.
It WOULD be kind of awesome if Trump got the nomination and then, the day before the election, declared he would switch to Dem afterward.
Iowa just doesn't matter anymore. Rick Santorum won Iowa in 2012! I am not worried about Sanders OR Trump. The world will correct itself soon enough.
Come have what I'm having!
I'm here. Iowa is weird. New Hampshire is weird.
Even when all signs pointed to HRC losing in 2008, she still got out the motherfucking vote, right up until the bitter end. She had a lot of big wins in late states, even after the primary was essentially decided for Obama. Do not underestimate the passion in the old lady contingent who want a woman president and who will vote. And all signs point to her building an even broader coalition than in 2008.
She can't take anything for granted, but it's going to take a lot more than a Bernie surge in a couple white, rural states to stop that train. Bernie is a strong candidate, but he has got limited appeal. The anti-establishment contingent in the Democratic Party is a lot smaller than it is in the Republican Party. And I firmly believe the debates will be a challenge for him.
This is what I've been saying! The Dems' decision to "anoint" HRC is bad, bad, bad. We're getting an "anyone but Hillary" type of desperation among some factions.
I don't agree. Most of the diehard Bernie fans I know are super liberals, very far left, but all that I've talked to think Hillary would be good also, just not as progressive in curbing the wealth inequities.
Do you have anecdotes or an article that Bernie supporters are anti HRC as their main motivation?
This is what I've been saying! The Dems' decision to "anoint" HRC is bad, bad, bad. We're getting an "anyone but Hillary" type of desperation among some factions.
I don't agree. Most of the diehard Bernie fans I know are super liberals, very far left, but all that I've talked to think Hillary would be good also, just not as progressive in curbing the wealth inequities.
Do you have anecdotes or an article that Bernie supporters are anti HRC as their main motivation?
I know this - I will commit voter fraud to vote against Trump if he's the nominee, and if he wins, I will move out of this country.
On the flip side, I sometimes think Trump is the president we deserve when it comes to our cult of celebrity, idiocy and abysmal voter turnout.
I know. I'm not even a hardcore democrat and I feel the same way. I was thinking about this yesterday. Can you imagine if he really does win? It'll actually be literally *embarrassing* to live in this country with him as our leader.
I'm..... actually starting to get a bit scared here. Like, really nervous. I watched trump's interview with Jimmy Fallon and the crowd response to him made me want to burn shit down. OMG, here I was expecting my daughters to grow up with the first female president and they might end up with TRUMP?!?!
I saw this too. Who the heck are these people he appeals to? He's not super religious and he doesn't have a sterling "family values" record so it's not the Bible thumpers. After his comments about John McCain and his war record, it can't be the military people. He makes horrible, crazy comments about women and minorities all the time so it's not them. I think he probably scares the hell out of big business types because they know they can't control him. Who is left? Is it enough for him to actually win the general?
This is what I've been saying! The Dems' decision to "anoint" HRC is bad, bad, bad. We're getting an "anyone but Hillary" type of desperation among some factions.
I don't agree. Most of the diehard Bernie fans I know are super liberals, very far left, but all that I've talked to think Hillary would be good also, just not as progressive in curbing the wealth inequities.
Do you have anecdotes or an article that Bernie supporters are anti HRC as their main motivation?
I am a Bernie supporter who would be fine with Clinton as president. I would not consider Bernie to be a part of that, considering he is not at all Democratic Party establishment. In fact, he's not really a democrat. However, given that the two other actual Democrats in the race are SO far behind HRC, I'm very glad Bernie is in the race. I've said before that I think he is pushing some of her policies to the left (such as proposing solutions for college affordability).
I think it's more the issue with people trying to "draft Biden." Like HRC, he worked in the Obama administration. He has run before. He has a long history of working with the party at the national level. He is a former senator. But people think he's more likeable? More relatable? Just not a Clinton? I don't know. I love Biden, but I don't think he has anything to gain from running.
Of course, the Democrats have not spent the last 8 years developing future party leaders, since it's always been assumed that Hillary Clinton would run in 2016. So when people say, "Hmm, well who else is there?" the answer is, of course, no one, but that is by design.
Most pundits felt that the long, drawn out primary between HRC and Obama in 2007/2008 was a great thing for Obama, since it brought all his faults to the surface and allowed him to address them and craft responses and policy proposals before he had to go up against the GOP. You *could* say the same about HRC - that the primary brought out all her flaws and made her stronger - but it's been almost 8 years and there are new things going on, like the email server scandal. And without a tough primary fight, she's going to go into the general election without really being tested, unless Bernie keeps her feet to the fire.
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
He's been a senator since 2007, so a little over 8 years.
But prior to that, he was in the House for 16 years. I'm willing to cut him a little slack on not having accomplished everything on his issues list because a) in the House, you are one of 435 members, b) the Republicans controlled the House for a significant portion of his tenure, and c) his congressional voting record generally backs up his rhetoric.
HOWEVER, I have had similar thoughts, namely in the form of rolling my eyes at the idea of Sanders as an outsider. He's an outsider in that he's an "independent," but he has consistently caucused with the Democrats and has received significant financial contributions from the DNC. He's been in Washington for almost 25 years. He's no more an outsider than HRC is.
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
Chuck Todd asked him a question like this on Sunday morning. He said that Bernie had introduced something like 60 bills, but 40 of them did not have a single cosponsor or any other support of any kind, and asked him why he thought it would be different as president.
Bernie's answer was to talk about a bipartisan bill for veterans that he was responsible for. Chuck Todd did not press him.
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
This is what I wanted to bring up in the Hillary thread. Yes, he's promising free college for everyone. Great! I agree with that! But what, exactly, makes anyone think he'd actually be able to do this? They do realize that presidents don't make laws, right?
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
He's been a senator since 2007, so a little over 8 years.
But prior to that, he was in the House for 16 years. I'm willing to cut him a little slack on not having accomplished everything on his issues list because a) in the House, you are one of 435 members, b) the Republicans controlled the House for a significant portion of his tenure, and c) his congressional voting record generally backs up his rhetoric.
HOWEVER, I have had similar thoughts, namely in the form of rolling my eyes at the idea of Sanders as an outsider. He's an outsider in that he's an "independent," but he has consistently caucused with the Democrats and has received significant financial contributions from the DNC. He's been in Washington for almost 25 years. He's no more an outsider than HRC is.
But this is what bugs me about Sanders too. If he's elected I fear he's so to the left that we are looking at another 4 years of nothing getting done.
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
This is what I wanted to bring up in the Hillary thread. Yes, he's promising free college for everyone. Great! I agree with that! But what, exactly, makes anyone think he'd actually be able to do this? They do realize that presidents don't make laws, right?
WSJ said it will cost $18 trillion dollars to do everything Bernie wants to do and will be funded through a new payroll tax:
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
Chuck Todd asked him a question like this on Sunday morning. He said that Bernie had introduced something like 60 bills, but 40 of them did not have a single cosponsor or any other support of any kind, and asked him why he thought it would be different as president.
Bernie's answer was to talk about a bipartisan bill for veterans that he was responsible for. Chuck Todd did not press him.
Classic politician move to answer the question you wish were asked instead of the one you actually were asked.
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
Chuck Todd asked him a question like this on Sunday morning. He said that Bernie had introduced something like 60 bills, but 40 of them did not have a single cosponsor or any other support of any kind, and asked him why he thought it would be different as president.
Bernie's answer was to talk about a bipartisan bill for veterans that he was responsible for. Chuck Todd did not press him.
This is huge. H and I were discussing the election at breakfast a few days ago, and while he's not a Berner, he also said he doesn't trust Hillary. I get that. Clintonworld is shady. But she seems to have forged more connections on Capitol Hill despite his near quarter-century there.
Chuck Todd asked him a question like this on Sunday morning. He said that Bernie had introduced something like 60 bills, but 40 of them did not have a single cosponsor or any other support of any kind, and asked him why he thought it would be different as president.
Bernie's answer was to talk about a bipartisan bill for veterans that he was responsible for. Chuck Todd did not press him.
Classic politician move to answer the question you wish were asked instead of the one you actually were asked.
Bernie's appeal has always been that he doesn't do this, but he's never had to. What will happen to his support and the passion once he has to start evading more?
Like heyjude said, he hasn't really been vetted. He's a smart, likeable guy, but he's never been under a microscope and there's a lot we don't know. He's a big risk.
All these great socialist ideas Bernie has. He's been in the Senate for what, 20 years? Why hasn't he seen those ideas through in the Senate? And what makes anyone think he will have better success as President?
This is what I wanted to bring up in the Hillary thread. Yes, he's promising free college for everyone. Great! I agree with that! But what, exactly, makes anyone think he'd actually be able to do this? They do realize that presidents don't make laws, right?
Bernie Sanders is like the kid TV show view of running for class/school president. He promises extra recess and dessert for lunch, but it never actually happens.
I'm..... actually starting to get a bit scared here. Like, really nervous. I watched trump's interview with Jimmy Fallon and the crowd response to him made me want to burn shit down. OMG, here I was expecting my daughters to grow up with the first female president and they might end up with TRUMP?!?!
I saw this too. Who the heck are these people he appeals to? He's not super religious and he doesn't have a sterling "family values" record so it's not the Bible thumpers. After his comments about John McCain and his war record, it can't be the military people. He makes horrible, crazy comments about women and minorities all the time so it's not them. I think he probably scares the hell out of big business types because they know they can't control him. Who is left? Is it enough for him to actually win the general?
Trump would absolutely appeal to my H if he weren't crazy lol. My H is a Republican but strongly dislikes the religious right, so he won't vote for anyone who infuses religion into politics. He otherwise would like Trump for not being a politician and for not being religious, if not for his shitty comments.
He'd also support a guy like Christie enthusiastically for similar reasons if not for him shitting all over teachers in NJ.
So he's left with Pataki who has no chance at all and he's mad as hell about that. He'll vote for Hillary in 2016 barring a new R candidate who aligns better with his leanings.