E-book sales slip, and print is far from dead

[Velar Fricative]

Obviously this is spurring some conversation in my office. I'll be back to share my thoughts!

www.nytimes.com/2015/09/23/business/media/the-plot-twist-e-book-sales-slip-and-print-is-far-from-dead.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share&smprod=nytcore-ipad&_r=1

Five years ago, the book world was seized by collective panic over the uncertain future of print.



As readers migrated to new digital devices, e-book sales soared, up 1,260 percent between 2008 and 2010, alarming booksellers that watched consumers use their stores to find titles they would later buy online. Print sales dwindled, bookstores struggled to stay open, and publishers and authors feared that cheaper e-books would cannibalize their business.



Then in 2011, the industry’s fears were realized when Borders declared bankruptcy.



“E-books were this rocket ship going straight up,” said Len Vlahos, a former executive director of the Book Industry Study Group, a nonprofit research group that tracks the publishing industry. “Just about everybody you talked to thought we were going the way of digital music.”



But the digital apocalypse never arrived, or at least not on schedule. While analysts once predicted that e-books would overtake print by 2015, digital sales have instead slowed sharply.


Now, there are signs that some e-book adopters are returning to print, or becoming hybrid readers, who juggle devices and paper. E-book sales fell by 10 percent in the first five months of this year, according to the Association of American Publishers, which collects data from nearly 1,200 publishers. Digital books accounted last year for around 20 percent of the market, roughly the same as they did a few years ago.



E-books’ declining popularity may signal that publishing, while not immune to technological upheaval, will weather the tidal wave of digital technology better than other forms of media, like music and television.



E-book subscription services, modeled on companies like Netflix and Pandora, have struggled to convert book lovers into digital binge readers, and some have shut down. Sales of dedicated e-reading devices have plunged as consumers migrated to tablets and smartphones. And according to some surveys, young readers who are digital natives still prefer reading on paper.



The surprising resilience of print has provided a lift to many booksellers. Independent bookstores, which were battered by the recession and competition from Amazon, are showing strong signs of resurgence. The American Booksellers Association counted 1,712 member stores in 2,227 locations in 2015, up from 1,410 in 1,660 locations five years ago.



“The fact that the digital side of the business has leveled off has worked to our advantage,” said Oren Teicher, chief executive of the American Booksellers Association. “It’s resulted in a far healthier independent bookstore market today than we have had in a long time.”



Publishers, seeking to capitalize on the shift, are pouring money into their print infrastructures and distribution. Hachette added 218,000 square feet to its Indiana warehouse late last year, and Simon & Schuster is expanding its New Jersey distribution facility by 200,000 square feet.



Penguin Random House has invested nearly $100 million in expanding and updating its warehouses and speeding up distribution of its books. It added 365,000 square feet last year to its warehouse in Crawfordsville, Ind., more than doubling the size of the warehouse.




“People talked about the demise of physical books as if it was only a matter of time, but even 50 to 100 years from now, print will be a big chunk of our business,” said Markus Dohle, the chief executive of Penguin Random House, which has nearly 250 imprints globally. Print books account for more than 70 percent of the company’s sales in the United States.



The company began offering independent booksellers in 2011 two-day guaranteed delivery from November to January, the peak book buying months.



Other big publishers, including HarperCollins, have followed suit. The faster deliveries have allowed bookstores to place smaller initial orders and restock as needed, which has reduced returns of unsold books by about 10 percent.



Penguin Random House has also developed a data-driven approach to managing print inventory for some of its largest customers, a strategy modeled on the way manufacturers like Procter & Gamble automatically restock soap and other household goods. The company now tracks more than 10 million sales records a day, and sifts through them in order to make recommendations for how many copies of a given title a vendor should order based on previous sales.



“It’s a very simple thing; only books that are on the shelves can be sold,” Mr. Dohle said.



At BookPeople, a bookstore founded in 1970 in Austin, Tex., sales are up nearly 11 percent this year over last, making 2015 the store’s most profitable year ever, said Steve Bercu, the co-owner. He credits the growth of his business, in part, to the stabilization of print and new practices in the publishing industry, such as Penguin Random House’s so-called rapid replenishment program to restock books quickly.



“The e-book terror has kind of subsided,” he said.



Other independent booksellers agree that they are witnessing a reverse migration to print.



“We’ve seen people coming back,” said Arsen Kashkashian, a book buyer at Boulder Book Store in Boulder, Colo. “They were reading more on their Kindle and now they’re not, or they’re reading both ways.”


Digital books have been around for decades, ever since publishers began experimenting with CD-ROMs, but they did not catch on with consumers until 2008, shortly after Amazon released the Kindle.



The Kindle, which was joined by other devices like Kobo’s e-reader, the Nook from Barnes & Noble and the iPad, drew millions of book buyers to e-readers, which offered seamless, instant purchases. Publishers saw huge spikes in digital sales during and after the holidays, after people received e-readers as gifts.



But those double- and triple-digit growth rates plummeted as e-reading devices fell out of fashion with consumers, replaced by smartphones and tablets. Some 12 million e-readers were sold last year, a steep drop from the nearly 20 million sold in 2011, according to Forrester Research. The portion of people who read books primarily on e-readers fell to 32 percent in the first quarter of 2015, from 50 percent in 2012, a Nielsen survey showed.




Higher e-book prices may also be driving readers back to paper.



As publishers renegotiated new terms with Amazon in the past year and demanded the ability to set their own e-book prices, many have started charging more. With little difference in price between a $13 e-book and a paperback, some consumers may be opting for the print version.



On Amazon, the paperback editions of some popular titles, like “The Goldfinch” by Donna Tartt and “All the Light We Cannot See” by Anthony Doerr, are several dollars cheaper than their digital counterparts. Paperback sales rose by 8.4 percent in the first five months of this year, the Association of American Publishers reported.



The tug of war between pixels and print almost certainly isn’t over. Industry analysts and publishing executives say it is too soon to declare the death of the digital publishing revolution. An appealing new device might come along. Already, a growing number of people are reading e-books on their cellphones. Amazon recently unveiled a new tablet for $50, which could draw a new wave of customers to e-books (the first-generation Kindle cost $400).



It is also possible that a growing number of people are still buying and reading e-books, just not from traditional publishers. The declining e-book sales reported by publishers do not account for the millions of readers who have migrated to cheap and plentiful self-published e-books, which often cost less than a dollar.


At Amazon, digital book sales have maintained their upward trajectory, according to Russell Grandinetti, senior vice president of Kindle. Last year, Amazon, which controls some 65 percent of the e-book market, introduced an e-book subscription service that allows readers to pay a flat monthly fee of $10 for unlimited digital reading. It offers more than a million titles, many of them from self-published authors.



Some publishing executives say the world is changing too quickly to declare that the digital tide is waning.



“Maybe it’s just a pause here,” said Carolyn Reidy, the president and chief executive of Simon & Schuster. “Will the next generation want to read books on their smartphones, and will we see another burst come?”

[krystee]

This makes me so happy.

[charminglife]

Interesting stuff. I wonder how much e-book sales have been impacted by pirating?

I've had my kindle keyboard for 4+ years and you can't pry it from my hands; however, I've been using the library more this year to read non-fiction where I like the ability to quickly flip back and forth from different sections. Other readers I know do the same thing - e-readers for fiction/trade paperbacks and 'real' books for non-fiction or more dense material.

[wambam]

I don't remember the last time I bought a print book, so I'm sort of surprised at this news. Purchasing books and downloading them to my Kindle is just way too convenient for me to do anything else. I would say I've bought at least 30 Kindle books in 2015.

However, where are these services that are "Netflix/Pandora for books??" I would absolutely participate in them - I just genuinely don't know what they're talking about.

[wambam]

Sept 23, 2015 8:30:00 GMT -5 charminglife said:

Interesting stuff. I wonder how much e-book sales have been impacted by pirating?

I've had my kindle keyboard for 4+ years and you can't pry it from my hands; however, I've been using the library more this year to read non-fiction where I like the ability to quickly flip back and forth from different sections. Other readers I know do the same thing - e-readers for fiction/trade paperbacks and 'real' books for non-fiction or more dense material.

I definitely agree with this. I tried one time to do an e-textbook in college and I wanted to tear my hair out!

[aurora]

It's the price issue, combined with the fact that I don't really own the ebook (can't lend it or give it away), that keeps me with paper. II read maybe 6 ebooks a year, mostly while traveling, and get most of my paper books from my local used book store.

I would read a lot more ebooks (just for the convenience factor) if they were in the $5 range.

[heyjude]

The problem with ebooks:

They are usually just as expensive as a print book or more.

Yet you retain none of the traditional ownership goodies of a real book, such as ability to sell, give away, or lend. (Yes I know lending is something you can sorta do on some platforms but I've found this to be clunky and not reliable)

There is something hedonic about the smell and feel of a real book that doesn't exist with a device.

Books are not like music. Music delivery has changed dramatically over the last 100 years. But books have been books forever.

Viva el libro!

[doxies]

I love my kindle and I share an account with other family members, so there are usually 3 people that are reading the same book and it saves me the hassle of having to mail it to them when I am done.  Also, I read a lot of popular fiction and I don't want all those books sitting around the house (and it takes me a while to drop them off at the library as a donation when I am done).  I also love being able to check out ebooks from the library without actually going there and without having to remember to return them on time.

I still love going to the bookstore and looking at books and finding new books.  Also, my kids prefer paper books to ebooks.  They are more likely to re-read books that they see sitting around the house rather than scrolling through a list of ebooks that we own and clicking on one to re-read.  Sometimes you can't replace browsing at book covers to see what catches your fancy.  I definitely don't want paper books to go away.

[saz]

Sept 23, 2015 8:30:33 GMT -5 wambam said:

I don't remember the last time I bought a print book, so I'm sort of surprised at this news. Purchasing books and downloading them to my Kindle is just way too convenient for me to do anything else. I would say I've bought at least 30 Kindle books in 2015.

However, where are these services that are "Netflix/Pandora for books??" I would absolutely participate in them - I just genuinely don't know what they're talking about.

I tried kindle unlimited for a couple months but it was a few books I wanted to read mixed with a giant mass of books that looked crappy. It was also difficult to navigate. I cancelled. I've had a kindle for like 8 years but I always go back to my actual, tangible books. I just LIKE books better, for all the reasons already articulated here.

[wambam]

Sept 23, 2015 8:51:46 GMT -5 saz said:

Sept 23, 2015 8:30:33 GMT -5 wambam said:

I don't remember the last time I bought a print book, so I'm sort of surprised at this news. Purchasing books and downloading them to my Kindle is just way too convenient for me to do anything else. I would say I've bought at least 30 Kindle books in 2015.

However, where are these services that are "Netflix/Pandora for books??" I would absolutely participate in them - I just genuinely don't know what they're talking about.

I tried kindle unlimited for a couple months but it was a few books I wanted to read mixed with a giant mass of books that looked crappy. It was also difficult to navigate. I cancelled. I've had a kindle for like 8 years but I always go back to my actual, tangible books. I just LIKE books better, for all the reasons already articulated here.

Yeah I guess that's where I'm confused. Kindle unlimited is mostly, IMO, shitty no-name books and a lot of really bad erotica. Netflix and Pandora have great programming I actually want to watch/listen to. That comparison is faulty to me. But if there's a kindle service that actually is comparable, I want to know about it.

[winecat]

I'm very pleased to hear this. Shanbrite wrote notes to her DD in her favorite books. You can't do that with an e-reader.

[Velar Fricative]

Thoughts after having some conversations with my staff this morning:

I don't put stock in the numbers or forecasts. I hate that the article all but dismissed the popularity of self-published e-books that are super cheap. I think that would change the theme of the article drastically.

Libraries are pouring a lot of money into digital content, but never shifted much money from print content just based on patron demand. [Insert shameless plug about checking your local library to see if they offer digital content themselves or via a regional library consortium before you pay for e-books.]

Books are romanticized in a way that other things just aren't. No one was sad to see VHS tapes all but disappear, and no one cared when Blockbuster was shutting down. Books have been around forever and that staying power is important when we're talking about shifting interests.

Lots of users are hybrid users - they'll use e-books when they're more convenient, and they'll use print books when they're more convenient. That gives the printed book a longer lifespan.

Of course people aren't buying as many e-readers. There was bound to be an inevitable plateauing of numbers after the boom.

[doxies]

Sept 23, 2015 8:53:52 GMT -5 wambam said:

Sept 23, 2015 8:51:46 GMT -5 saz said:

I tried kindle unlimited for a couple months but it was a few books I wanted to read mixed with a giant mass of books that looked crappy. It was also difficult to navigate. I cancelled. I've had a kindle for like 8 years but I always go back to my actual, tangible books. I just LIKE books better, for all the reasons already articulated here.

Yeah I guess that's where I'm confused. Kindle unlimited is mostly, IMO, shitty no-name books and a lot of really bad erotica. Netflix and Pandora have great programming I actually want to watch/listen to. That comparison is faulty to me. But if there's a kindle service that actually is comparable, I want to know about it.

I've heard ads for Oyster, but I think the main issue is that many publishers don't want this type of service to work.  I am guessing it is a lot of books that aren't in high demand.  Probably similar to the list of  books that you can actually lend on your kindle.  

[doxies]

Sept 23, 2015 8:58:23 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Of course people aren't buying as many e-readers. There was bound to be an inevitable plateauing of numbers after the boom.

I think this is a good point.  The dedicated e-readers don't have a lot of bells and whistles, so I don't think people feel the need to upgrade every time a new one comes out.  They really are very basic devices that serve one very specific purpose.

[gt7301b]

Sept 23, 2015 8:28:53 GMT -5 @mrsbecky said:

the price for me is the turning point. I think ebooks are expensive for a book that I can't lend to someone. I like that about print books. "I read this great book, here it is, you should borrow it and let me know what you think." Losing that was an issue for me.

I like my nook, and I definitely prefer reading on that versus my ipad or smartphone. I like if I'm traveling I can bring several different books with me on one device.

But I don't like paying ebook prices when I can buy the book in paperback for cheaper or go to the library and get the book.

This is how I feel about ebooks. Why am I paying the same price, or more for an ebook? If you are going to charge me the same price to print and ship me the book I'll take the physical book. I also like being able to give someone else a good book when I am done with it.

Almost all the ebooks I read are cheap ones that I buy when amazon does their lightening sales or books I download from the library.  I do prefer elibrary books, cause I don't have to worry about returning them.

[NitaX]

Sept 23, 2015 8:28:53 GMT -5 @mrsbecky said:

the price for me is the turning point. I think ebooks are expensive for a book that I can't lend to someone. I like that about print books. "I read this great book, here it is, you should borrow it and let me know what you think." Losing that was an issue for me.

I like my nook, and I definitely prefer reading on that versus my ipad or smartphone. I like if I'm traveling I can bring several different books with me on one device.

But I don't like paying ebook prices when I can buy the book in paperback for cheaper or go to the library and get the book.

Agreed. I get quite annoyed that B&N won't do the same sale for e-books. I want a discount too! I do like my Nook because it's far easier to lug around when I'm on vacation. I have a Simple Touch because I still want the feel of a book. And, I find that if I'm on a tablet device, I'm going to use it to surf the web - not truly read a book. So, for that reason, I stick with my Simple Touch (e-Ink reader). 

[heyjude]

"Books are romanticized in a way that other things just aren't. No one was sad to see VHS tapes all but disappear...."

VHS had a run of what? 20 years? Print has been around what? 2000 years? Comparing books to VHS tapes is kinda like comparing the Royal Shakespearean Theater Co to VHS tapes.

Some things should be and are just eternal. Others are ephemeral.

Books are for forever!

[Velar Fricative]

Sept 23, 2015 9:14:27 GMT -5 heyjude said:

"Books are romanticized in a way that other things just aren't. No one was sad to see VHS tapes all but disappear...."

VHS had a run of what? 20 years? Print has been around what? 2000 years? Comparing books to VHS tapes is kinda like comparing the Royal Shakespearean Theater Co to VHS tapes.

Some things should be and are just eternal. Others are ephemeral.

Books are for forever!

That was my point.

ETA: These are arguments I have heard about not preventing the inevitable, i.e. letting printed books become a thing of the past. "Look at how technology has evolved!", they say. Except the lifespan of a particular technology is microscopic compared to the lifespan of the printed word. 

Maybe in 100 years, printed books will disappear. I don't know. But I think 5 years ago during the e-reader boom, people were honestly expecting print books to be a dinosaur by 2015.

[aurora]

Sept 23, 2015 8:58:23 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

... I hate that the article all but dismissed the popularity of self-published e-books that are super cheap. I think that would change the theme of the article drastically.

Libraries are pouring a lot of money into digital content, but never shifted much money from print content just based on patron demand. [Insert shameless plug about checking your local library to see if they offer digital content themselves or via a regional library consortium before you pay for e-books.]
...

I want to love the self-published book trend that ebooks enable, but I've read enough really badly written ones (even highly reviewed) that I just can't take the time with them anymore. I'm sure there are some gems out there but they're hard to find.

As for the local library I can see how ebooks are a boon (in terms of users). I didn't really use my library account the first 10 years I lived here because of the inconvenience of having to go there twice to borrow and return, but now I use it all the time for audiobooks and if I am traveling I look there first for ebooks before I buy one.

[aurora]

Sept 23, 2015 8:53:52 GMT -5 wambam said:

Sept 23, 2015 8:51:46 GMT -5 saz said:

I tried kindle unlimited for a couple months but it was a few books I wanted to read mixed with a giant mass of books that looked crappy. It was also difficult to navigate. I cancelled. I've had a kindle for like 8 years but I always go back to my actual, tangible books. I just LIKE books better, for all the reasons already articulated here.

Yeah I guess that's where I'm confused. Kindle unlimited is mostly, IMO, shitty no-name books and a lot of really bad erotica. Netflix and Pandora have great programming I actually want to watch/listen to. That comparison is faulty to me. But if there's a kindle service that actually is comparable, I want to know about it.

I have never actually tried Kindle Unlimited but in addition to selection, I feel like Netflix is so much more user friendly than Prime for watching TV. I'd imagine KU is similarly bad. Heck, Amazon makes it deliberately hard to find books Prime members can borrow for free. I guess a big difference is that Netflix is purely a subscription service, whereas Amazon wants to sell content first, but then if you refuse they'll eventually let you rent it, and their platform is set up accordingly.

[rupertpenny]

I am actually a huge ebook convert which has surprised me. I used to go back and forth but the kindle paper white was a game changer for me. I love reading in the dark!

Of course this is also influenced by the fact I live somewhere where English language book selection is limited and expensive. I don't know what I'd do without my kindle.

[taratru]

I love books. Even though I read things on my Kindle, I still love, buy, and check out books. Books will never ever go away.

[Cicero]

I definitely do both. For quick, easy, mindless reads I prefer an evil but for anything heavy, in depth, or not written in my mother tougne I greatly prefer having a physical book.

[oliviapope]

I buy books I know I'll reread in print form, anything I know if just an easy read, or for school I read on my kindle. I like my money where I can see it...on my book shelves lol.

[heyjude]

I just organized all my books by color.* I love it!!! You can't do this with your ebooks.





*I don't want to hear the snark. I already know this is hotly debated in the book world. I read all the criticism; and was on the anti side for a long time. Now I LOVE it. It works for me. I can't think of a better way to honor my beloved books.

[sangria]

Sept 23, 2015 8:28:53 GMT -5 @mrsbecky said:

the price for me is the turning point. I think ebooks are expensive for a book that I can't lend to someone. I like that about print books. "I read this great book, here it is, you should borrow it and let me know what you think." Losing that was an issue for me.

I like my nook, and I definitely prefer reading on that versus my ipad or smartphone. I like if I'm traveling I can bring several different books with me on one device.

But I don't like paying ebook prices when I can buy the book in paperback for cheaper or go to the library and get the book.

All this. I hate the price for an ebook when I have nothing to "hold" when I've finished. I have the first 3 Outlander books in print and I've been lending them to a friend who is really enjoying them. I only have 4 and 5 on the kindle and I think I'm going to just go and buy the actual book instead. 

I also enjoy have hard copies of books that I love on display on our bookcases. People who visit our home often will peruse through the titles and ask about different books or ask to borrow some etc. I think it's great for conversation and getting new ideas for things to read. 

[heyjude]

The other awesome thing about real books: Little Free Lending Libraries.

[oliverboliverbutt]

I only buy an e-book when I can't get it elsewhere in time for book club reading, but I check e-books out from the library a few times a month, and I love the option. I read more when I have a book on multiple devices, but I'm not interested in buying something I can't have and keep or lend or give away. I get annoyed when I see the few books I bought on my kindle that I'm not going to read again and can't do anything with.

I also agree with the easy fiction vs. non-fiction or anything that requires flipping back. Even reading GOT it was annoying to not be able to flip back to the maps and character section. OTOH, I checked out a trade paperback Outlander book and it was so squat and fat and hard to handle that when my turn came for the e-book I ditched the book.

[josieposy]

I initially liked ebooks, but now I need a getaway from screens since my work is so screen-dependent. I've never had to charge the battery on a paper book.

[heyjude]

Sept 23, 2015 10:37:58 GMT -5 sangria said:

Sept 23, 2015 8:28:53 GMT -5 @mrsbecky said:

the price for me is the turning point. I think ebooks are expensive for a book that I can't lend to someone. I like that about print books. "I read this great book, here it is, you should borrow it and let me know what you think." Losing that was an issue for me.

I like my nook, and I definitely prefer reading on that versus my ipad or smartphone. I like if I'm traveling I can bring several different books with me on one device.

But I don't like paying ebook prices when I can buy the book in paperback for cheaper or go to the library and get the book.

All this. I hate the price for an ebook when I have nothing to "hold" when I've finished. I have the first 3 Outlander books in print and I've been lending them to a friend who is really enjoying them. I only have 4 and 5 on the kindle and I think I'm going to just go and buy the actual book instead. 

I also enjoy have hard copies of books that I love on display on our bookcases. People who visit our home often will peruse through the titles and ask about different books or ask to borrow some etc. I think it's great for conversation and getting new ideas for things to read. 

Now I did buy the entire outlander series for my kindle app. They were $1.99, not each, but total. $1.99 for the entire series!!! This was like a freak Amazon gold box deal a few months ago.