Can I ask a really dumb non-MMM question?

[MNH2013]

www.youtube.com/user/Kurzgesagt/videos

I like these videos for explaining. They help some.

[mlt]

President Assad started a war on people in his country - protesters - after the Arab Spring. He has used chemical weapons against them. ISIS is sort of a rebel group that has gained (over the last two years) ground in eastern Syria. We hate Assad AND ISIS but there is no clear option for outsiders. If we take down ISIS, we help Assad. If we take down Assad, ISIS is almost sure to come to power in the whole country (minus a few pockets). There are third party rebel groups but so far they aren't strong enough to run things or win.

ETA sorry he's president not prime minister

[redwino]

That's a great article @mrsbecky. I didn't know that ISIS came in later. I thought they started the war.

[rugbywife]

It's essentially a civil war with no good guys so now people are fleeing en masse.

[fortnightlily]

This is what I gleaned from the BBC article:

1. There is a civil war going on between an oppressive government and people trying to unseat that government. (But not everyone on the anti-government side is all part of one group).
2. ISIS is taking advantage of the civil war to try to move in from Iraq and take over part of the country for themselves.
3. All the civilians caught in the middle of both 1 & 2 are trying to flee the region.

[Deleted]

The civil war started over controversy of Assad. ISIS rose to prominence as one of the rebel groups but they are just as bad as Assad in a way. The US (and other allies) are in a tough spot now because how do you get rid of Assad without empowering ISIS? It's one of those damned if you do, damned if you don't situations.

[awkwardpenguin]

The "why" is mostly an uprising against an oppressive dictatorship. At least that's how it started.

[Deleted]

Russia is fighting Isis in Syria now. I guess the plan is for them to save assad's govt but he will eventually step down as part of a peace deal. If it works.

[Deleted]

No one hit the part where climate change caused a huge drought that drove rural people to the cities and created food shortages?

www.upworthy.com/trying-to-follow-what-is-going-on-in-syria-and-why-this-comic-will-get-you-there-in-5-minutes

And it's in comic form! Very readable.

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2015 10:29:44 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Sept 30, 2015 10:25:03 GMT -5 CheeringCharm said:

Russia is fighting Isis in Syria now. I guess the plan is for them to save assad's govt but he will eventually step down as part of a peace deal. If it works.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

If Putin helps Assad keep power, he's have someone in the Middle East permanently indebted to him (along with perhaps Iraq and/or Iran).  There is no fucking way on earth he'd want that guy out of power.  I'm sure even if they do defeat ISIS he will be all "but it was only due to the strong leadership of Assad, we must keep him rather than some untested rube who will lead us back into a power vacuum."

Idk maybe that is just how they are spinning it to us? I read about it in the Kerry article in the nyt. At the end of the day though, if Russia saves Assad's gov't I doubt they really need him as its nominal head. I'm not that well versed in who's who behind the scenes there but I'm sure Putin has someone in mind as his future puppet.

[grosnl19]

Thanks for asking @this, I was wondering the same thing...

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2015 10:30:31 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

In other news, I was so sick of ancient ruins that I skipped out on Palmyra when I went to Syria and now I regret it. At least I saw Aleppo, Homs, Apamea and Damascus.

The strange thing is that Russia started bombing Homs first even though it is not under ISIS control. There was no explanation for this in the article I read. They say they are pro Assad.

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2015 10:37:37 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Sept 30, 2015 10:34:30 GMT -5 CheeringCharm said:

The strange thing is that Russia started bombing Homs first even though it is not under ISIS control. There was no explanation for this in the article I read. They say they are pro Assad.

Well, it's probably because Assad wants them to do so.  I'd assume that means there is a big rebel group there.  

Ah that makes sense. Sneaky of them. They're supposed to be coordinating matters with the West.

[Saudade]

Also, to reiterate @littlemoxie point, there is no way Assad will step down in the case that ISIS is "defeated". That's why many are saying there needs to be a clear alternative for if/when ISIS and Assad are defeated. Because in a power vacuum, no good guys come out winning.

[greycat]

If you want to get a sense for what the refugees have gone through checkout Humans of New York (Facebook, Instagram). He is doing a series on refugees making their way through Europe. Their stories are heartbreaking.

@littlemoxie thank you for pointing out that Turkey has 2 million refugees. The media seems to be focusing on Europe when they've received only a small portion of the refugees.

[niq]

In addition to what PPs have said, compared to Egypt and Lybia, the Syrian army is (1) well equipped and competent, (2) loyal to the regime, and (3) they have good air defense. So if NATO or whoever were to intervene, it would involve bombing the whole country into oblivion, only The West would be directly to blame. And Russia would be PO'd.

Also compared to its neighbors (Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia) Syria is REALLY POOR so no one wants the refugees.

[ny96]

There is a really good Frontline called something like "Syria and the Rise of Isis". It gives background and lays it out well.