fivethirtyeight: 75% chance the Senate will go Republican

[LadySusan]

ETA: I was mixed up!  These are the 2014 predictions!

fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

I can't C&P their graphs.

To summarize: North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, Louisiana and Arkansas currently have Democrats but there is a high probability that they will elect Republicans in 2016.  Georgia is the only remotely competitive red state and there is a liberal-leaning (I think?) indie in Kansas that looks competitive.

Maybe things will change as we get closer?

[iammalcolmx]

They usually know their shit

[ESF]

The link takes me to a 2014 Senate forecast, and your summary of it suggests that you didn't just paste the wrong link. For example, the senator up for reelection in NH in 2016 is not a democrat but the one up in 2014 was.

[Cicero]

Huh? North Carolina has two Republican Senators and the Senate can't go Republican--it can only stay that way or go Dem.

[Cicero]

Dec 11, 2015 14:38:04 GMT -5 ESF said:

The link takes me to a 2014 Senate forecast, and your summary of it suggests that you didn't just paste the wrong link. For example, the senator up for reelection in NH in 2016 is not a democrat but the one up in 2014 was.

This makes more sense.  

[ESF]

Dec 11, 2015 14:42:09 GMT -5 Cicero said:

Dec 11, 2015 14:38:04 GMT -5 ESF said:

The link takes me to a 2014 Senate forecast, and your summary of it suggests that you didn't just paste the wrong link. For example, the senator up for reelection in NH in 2016 is not a democrat but the one up in 2014 was.

This makes more sense.  

It's also way too early for these kinds of things.  Lots of states still have primary races for their senate contenders, so I don't even think there's any sort of reliable polling out yet for them to make a statement like that. I don't even think they've said anything so bold for the presidential race, where there's been more polling.

[smock]

Yeah, this is about 2014. Spoilers: the Senate went Republican.

[downtoearth]

What, we don't even know who is running in our state?

ETA: Oh, this is for 2014. Never mind.

[LadySusan]

Doh! It even said 2014 in GIANT LETTERS!

[oscarnerdjulief]

Dang it. Thanks for ruining my day with the revelation that it's 2014. Does anybody know where that RCP page is that shows what states are most likely to flip? Right now, I'd say WI and IL are certainly flipping from red to blue, and NH and LA could be close. Hassan's stance on the refugees certainly signals a run, and Vitter's decision not to seek another term makes it more open than it would have otherwise been. Nevada probably goes Dem in a presidential election year, plus there's all the hype about the first Latina.

I can't see Ohio jettisoning Portman for Strickland.

[josieposy]