Ted "Cruz's" into the lead in Iowa (Long Article)

[jdnotbyrider]

The comfort that would blanket my body if Cruz became the nominee would be fantastic, because while he is scary, he's not Beyond Scared Straight Prisoner levels of scary like Trump is. Plus, I feel that the winner of The Democratic Nomination would be able to handle Cruz a lot easier then Trump.

www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/12/big-shakeup-iowa-poll-cruz-soars-lead/77199800/

Seven weeks from the caucuses, Ted Cruz is crushing it in Iowa.

The anti-establishment congressional agitator has made a rapid ascent into the lead in the GOP presidential race here, with a 21 percentage-point leap that smashes records for upsurges in recent Iowa caucuses history.

Donald Trump, now 10 points below Cruz, was in a pique about not being the front-runner even before the Iowa Poll results were announced Saturday evening. He wasted no time in tearing into Cruz — and the poll — during an Iowa stop Friday night.

Ben Carson, another "Washington outsider" candidate, has plunged 15 points from his perch at the front of the pack in October. He's now in third place.

"Big shakeup," said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll. "This is a sudden move into a commanding position for Cruz."

Cruz, a Texas U.S. senator famous for defying party leaders and using government shutdown tactics to hold up funding for the Obamacare health care law and abortion provider Planned Parenthood, was the favorite of 10 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in the last Iowa Poll in October. He's now at 31 percent.


Carson's zenith was 28 percent in the poll two months ago. Trump's highest support was 23 percent back in August, when he led the field by 5 points.



And there are signs Cruz may not have peaked in Iowa yet. Another 20 percent of likely caucusgoers say he's their current second choice for president. Cruz hits 51 percent support when first- and second-choice interest is combined, again leading the field.

With Cruz's popularity and his debate proficiency, "it's certainly possible that he could win Iowa big — very big," said Frank Luntz, a Nevada-based GOP focus group guru who follows the Iowa race closely.

But Trump, who has earned a reputation for upending pundits' predictions, still has healthy backing, at 21 percent, 2 percentage points higher than in the last poll.

And the New York real estate entrepreneur has won the confidence of likely caucusgoers in several key areas. In a four-way head-to-head match-up with Cruz, Carson and Marco Rubio, half of likely caucusgoers believe Trump would be best at managing the economy and think he'd do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem. Forty-nine percent believe Trump "knows the most about how to get things done," while only 22 percent say that of Cruz.

Carson, a mellow-voiced religious conservative who spent his career at the bedside of children who needed brain surgery, has dropped to 13 percent. Poll respondents interviewed by the Register said they want a president who will be tough on terrorism, and they have a trouble seeing Carson in this role.

Two establishment candidates' positions in the race remain largely unchanged.

Rubio, a Florida U.S. senator who has framed himself as someone who can deliver "a new American century," is in fourth place with 10 percent. He was in fourth with 9 percent in October.

And former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who presents himself as the steady hand who can best keep the nation safe from terrorism and improve the economy, remains in fifth (he was tied in fifth with Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul in October). Bush sits at 6 percent, up 1 point.

Three Republicans are tied at 3 percent: Paul, a watchdog for government overreach; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a torchbearer for Christian conservative morals; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a self-proclaimed messenger of hard truths.

This poll result will play a role in determining whether Paul is on the main stage for the Las Vegas debate Tuesday night, or if he’ll be with the underdogs in the undercard debate.

The rest of the field is at 2 percent or less, including Carly Fiorina, a public office rookie who leans on her experience as a technology company CEO, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who stresses his longtime government experience and competence.

The Iowa Poll of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Dec. 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Just as some top Republicans in Iowa and across the country were starting to say Trump might win not only Iowa but also the GOP nomination, he finds himself losing by 10 points here.

"Iowa's 11th commandment is thou shalt be nice," said Jamie Johnson, an Iowa political operative who was senior director for former presidential candidate Rick Perry's campaign. "Donald Trump has violated this commandment one too many times. Now he is paying the price."

The poll shows the Iowa electorate has started to define Trump a little more clearly. He has hammered home the impression that he'd be a get-it-done problem-solver on the federal deficit, on dealing with the aggressive president of Russia, and on combating Islamic terrorism.

But he scores poorly on temperament to be president, ability to work effectively with Congress, and on values.

Those are areas where Cruz is viewed as best, the poll finds.

Since the October poll, Cruz got strong reviews in two debates, stepped up his visits to Iowa and was validated by an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Steve King, a kingmaker in conservative circles.

Cruz is now leading with two critical blocs in the Republican caucus electorate: evangelical conservatives (45 percent) and tea party conservatives (39 percent).

Iowa presents a "take and hold" scenario for Cruz: He's taken it; now he needs to hold it, with about 50 days to go before the first-in-the-nation vote on Feb. 1.

While other GOP presidential hopefuls have clashed with the Trump Nation head-on, Cruz's decision to stay out of Trump's way is proving to be a favorable strategy in Iowa. He's the backup choice for 49 percent of Trump supporters. And Cruz has sky-high image numbers. The percentage of likely caucusgoers who have a positive view of Cruz is now 73 percent, up 12 points from October, including 43 percent who have a very favorable impression.

On Friday, amid chatter about the race narrowing to a two-person affair, Cruz tweeted that he wasn't going to reward the establishment by engaging in a "cage match" with Trump.

But Trump, now that his political soulmate poses a threat, had no such qualms. At an event at the Iowa State Fairgrounds Friday night, Trump lit into Cruz for the first time, claiming the Texan is beholden to Big Oil and trying to plant seeds of doubt about whether a Cuban can be an evangelical Christian. Cruz's father, a conservative preacher who has spent 25 days on the Iowa campaign trail for his son, emigrated from Cuba.

In telephone interviews with the Register, Iowa Poll participants were strongly supportive of Cruz.

"I've always liked him because I feel like he stands up for what he believes in, even if the polls aren't showing that it's popular," said Cruz backer Bridget Campbell, a 42-year-old Shenandoah Republican who works from home doing health care information management. "If he believes in it, he will stand up."

Hannah Kern, 21, who works on her family's farm in rural Traer, said her mind is firmly made up to caucus for Cruz. She heard his father, Rafael Cruz, talk about his son at a home-schoolers' event near Kalona, and saw Ted Cruz in person for the first time at his religious liberty rally in August in Des Moines, where he handed out booklets on the U.S. Constitution.

"The most important thing is someone who knows what our Constitution is," Kern said.

Retired welder Larry Flanders, who lives in Russell, said he likes both Trump and Cruz, but has now settled on Cruz.

"What put the frosting on the cake is when he backed up Trump on what Trump said" about various topics such as immigration and fighting ISIS, Flanders said. Plus, Cruz knows the inner workings of Congress and is familiar with "how bad the White House is."

"Either one of them can get it across, but Trump's pretty blunt," Flanders said. "Cruz can tell you off and not hurt your feelings."

[jdnotbyrider]

Dec 12, 2015 23:49:15 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

I'm actually more scared of Ted Cruz. There are plenty of Republicans who would run screaming into HRC's arms if Trump won the nomination. Ted Cruz would keep the party together, and the guy is a smart, calculating asshole. Nope.

True. He's still a dirty prick, he called the Planned Parenthood Shooter a "Transgender Leftist Activist" after all.

I guess I'm just so full of anxiety about Trump becoming President that literally any human being whose last name isn't Huckabee bringing him down would give me less to worry about. I'd still have stuff to worry about, making sure that the nominee on the Republican doesn't win no matter what of course, but I'd still have to worry about less.

[summer]

Every time I hear Cruz's name, I think of this: theslot.jezebel.com/fuckin-craig-mazin-an-appreciation-of-ted-cruzs-colleg-1746278435

But seriously, Cruz and Rubio have always been the ones I'm most concerned about. They look reasonable and legit, and imo, they would be really destructive to all things progressive.

I keep hoping a Romney, or McCain will jump out, or even that Jeb! would get his act together. I'm not a fan of their policies, but if they won I wouldn't get scared. If Cruz or Rubio win? Man, forget it. Like I said before, if there is a President Cruz, who are we sending to a Paris Climate change change summit? How does it look that the leader of the USA doesn't believe in climate change? And that's just the beginning of my issues with him.

[compassrose]

Dec 13, 2015 2:09:40 GMT -5 summer said:

But seriously, Cruz and Rubio have always been the ones I'm most concerned about. They look reasonable and legit, and imo, they would be really destructive to all things progressive.

This, word for word. Obama has made so much progress that the next asshole could just undo.

[StrawberryBlondie]

I'm way more scared of Cruz than Trump. Like no comparison

[laurack]

Yes I think it's best for us all if trump wins the nomination. He can't possibly win the election so it's a shoo in for the dems then

[josieposy]

I saw a "Cruz Prez" sticker on a car at Target yesterday.

[Deleted]

I read somewhere that Cruz is absolutely despised by the Rs in Congress and in the Senate. I doubt he would hold them together. He's scary though because he is like a charming psycho - looks all fine on the outside, is a broken crazy machine on the inside.

[ECB]

I find Cruz so smarmy looking. I couldn't handle looking at him for 4 (or 8! Heaven forbid!) years.

[ESF]

Dec 13, 2015 13:42:59 GMT -5 @eveer said:

I read somewhere that Cruz is absolutely despised by the Rs in Congress and in the Senate. I doubt he would hold them together. He's scary though because he is like a charming psycho - looks all fine on the outside, is a broken crazy machine on the inside.

Oh he's hated. But my sense is that if it comes down to it, the GOP will get in line behind him. They'd rather him than Trump.

[miniroller]

Dec 13, 2015 13:59:38 GMT -5 ECB said:

I find Cruz so smarmy looking. I couldn't handle looking at him for 4 (or 8! Heaven forbid!) years.

Smarmy is the perfect descriptor! Like his photo should be placed next to the definition in reference materials. Not exactly a presidential profile.

[oscarnerdjulief]

Cruz would still lose, but he would limit the GOP losses in the Senate, which would explode if Trump were the nominee. My big concern at this point is the down-ballot races. I don't even think Rubio or Christie can get to 260 electorals, but they'd limit the damage.  With Rubio, the optimal scenario is that he wins Ohio and Florida, then the race moves to Colorado/New Hampshire/Nevada/Virginia where it's ultimately lost.

I watched Face the Nation, and the people in the Luntz focus group, many of them pro-Trump who would vote for him as an independent, are batshit crazy. I thought we ditched these dummies when we had the big Senate losses with Angle, Buck, O'Donnell and their ilk. The pendulum had swung back with the professional politicians running for the Senate and doing well.

Note: by "limit the GOP losses," I mean we'd only lose 4-5 instead of 8-10.  I could see Wisconsin, Louisiana, Illinois, Florida, and New Hampshire switching to blue.  From my first-hand observations, I don't see Ohio switching to Strickland.  Portman hasn't done anything extreme, plus Strickland has a younger opponent in the primary as far as I know.

[UMaineTeach]

Dec 13, 2015 13:59:38 GMT -5 ECB said:

I find Cruz so smarmy looking. I couldn't handle looking at him for 4 (or 8! Heaven forbid!) years.

H and I were having a discussion about Ted being smarmy, and the origins of smarmy. Dictionary comes out and I find that he's smarmy under both definitions:

smarm |smärm| informal
verb
1 [ no obj. ] chiefly Brit. behave in an ingratiating way in order to gain favor: I smarmed my way into the air force.
2 [ with obj. ] smooth down (one's hair), especially with water, oil, or gel: he had smarmed his hair down.

[cville]

"Cruz's" is killing me softly.

[partyinmytummy]