Post by sugarglider on Dec 14, 2015 18:05:28 GMT -5
Yeah. I tend to agree. Though I think it'll be Bernie instead of Hillary.
Trump has a hard ceiling. He might get a plurality of Republicans in the primaries, but he'll never get enough support to actually win. Educated Rs will either vote L or hold their/our noses and vote D.
Post by litebright on Dec 14, 2015 20:11:18 GMT -5
My DH and I were talking about something similar to the conclusion this guy reaches -- that maybe if Trump does win the nom, and gets destroyed, it might be a tipping point for the GOP to actually reform itself. Or split. Or something.
DH is more hopeful than I am. He was registered R until a few years ago when the party just got entirely too socially focused and socially conservative for him, and now he is a registered independent.
The election of 2012 was supposed to be when the GOP learned a lesson, and clearly they didn't -- if they didn't learn then, why would they learn now? In the aftermath, there was a lot of talk about how the party needed to change. The party leaders, at least, paid lip service to wanting to attract more minority and women voters -- even if they didn't want to change actual policies that those constituencies object to and thought they could do it all with re-framing their message, LOFL. What has happened instead? Their leading candidates are, if anything, more hateful in terms of their rhetoric. They've tied themselves so tightly to the xenophobic, ultra-conservative, white evangelical minority that any reasonably moderate candidate can't get traction. They didn't learn, they didn't progress, they didn't change after 2012. They continue to do well in mid-term and congressional races when they can turn out their base and which can be more heavily influenced by gerrymandering, but I don't think they can win a national election with the candidates that their base loves.