Why young voters may choose Rubio over HRC

[jeaniebueller]

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www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/12/young_people_may_vote_for_marco_rubio_over_hillary_clinton.html

the main thrust of Sen. Marco Rubio’s bid for president is also his most visible feature. He’s young, he looks young, and he begins and ends almost every speech with a call for change—partisan, ideological, and generational. “Before us now is the opportunity to author the greatest chapter yet in the amazing story of America. We can’t do that by going back to the leaders and ideas of the past,” he said in his announcement speech in April. “The time has come to turn the page and allow a new generation of leadership in this country,” he declared to listeners at the Values Voter Summit in September.

It’s the right play for this political environment. Democrats need large margins with young voters to win the White House. But they have a candidate, Hillary Clinton, who doesn’t energize the young students and professionals who helped Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. As with other groups that lean Democratic, Rubio doesn’t have to win young voters. He just can’t afford to lose them all. If he manages that, he charts an easier path to the presidency.

A new NBC poll reveals just that. The headline number shows the Florida senator with the win: At this moment, if all adults had to choose, Rubio would beat Clinton, 48 percent to 45 percent. And while Clinton has an advantage with blacks and Latinos, she ties Rubio among Americans who are 18 to 34 years old, 45 percent to 45 percent. As Greg Sargent notes for the Washington Post, this comes after a recent poll from Quinnipiac University that shows a narrow race between Rubio and Clinton among young voters, and it comes as Team Clinton fights for support among millennials—and young women in particular—who aren’t thrilled with Hillary, even as she vies to be the first female president.

All of this analysis comes with the usual caveats: Most Americans, including most voters, aren’t following the presidential election, and are choosing—again, in the moment—on feeling and affect. And these polls—like most polls at this stage—aren’t predictive. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t valuable. That Rubio ties Clinton with young voters tells us about the senator’s potential strength in a general election, and the secretary’s ongoing fight to build enthusiasm for her campaign.
It also raises a question: Why, exactly, are young voters attracted to Rubio? There’s a reason observers occasionally call Rubio a “young fogey.” His rhetoric aside, the Florida senator offers policies on issues like same-sex marriage that appeal the most to the oldest and most traditional Americans. Seventy percent of millennials and 59 percent of those in Generation X support marriage for same-sex couples, but on Sunday, Rubio criticized the 5–4 decision that legalized same-sex marriage and promised to “appoint Supreme Court justices that will interpret the Constitution as originally constructed.” Likewise, in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, he promised to rescind an executive order that prohibits federal contractors from discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity. On everything from drug policy (he opposes loosening marijuana laws) to the minimum wage, Rubio is out of step with the youngest Americans. So, why the appeal?


It’s possible that this has less to do with Rubio than it does the composition of the youth vote, and the circumstances of those voters. The young people who will vote in the 2016 election aren’t the same ones who voted in 2008 and 2012. Overall, according to the Pew Research Center, millennials lean Democratic. But the youngest millennials are more Republican than their older peers (although still largely Democratic), and that’s especially true for white millennials, who are more conservative than their black, Latino, and Asian counterparts.


Put differently, the most liberal millennials are those that came of age under President George W. Bush, while the most conservative ones are those that came of political age under President Obama and have faced a sluggish and stagnant economy. Far from embracing Rubio and the Republican Party, these voters may just be skeptical of the Democratic Party’s ability to deliver economic growth and opportunity. To this point, the November unemployment rate was 15.3 percent for people aged 18 to 19, and 9.6 percent for people aged 20 to 24.

It also raises a question: Why, exactly, are young voters attracted to Rubio? There’s a reason observers occasionally call Rubio a “young fogey.” His rhetoric aside, the Florida senator offers policies on issues like same-sex marriage that appeal the most to the oldest and most traditional Americans. Seventy percent of millennials and 59 percent of those in Generation X support marriage for same-sex couples, but on Sunday, Rubio criticized the 5–4 decision that legalized same-sex marriage and promised to “appoint Supreme Court justices that will interpret the Constitution as originally constructed.” Likewise, in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, he promised to rescind an executive order that prohibits federal contractors from discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity. On everything from drug policy (he opposes loosening marijuana laws) to the minimum wage, Rubio is out of step with the youngest Americans. So, why the appeal?

[NewOrleans]

I don't think this offers a very compelling argument, to be honest. I definitely think Rubio stands a chance of winning the whole election, but I don't think it's because young voters will pick up what he puts down.

[josieposy]

Huh. All the kids I know love Sanders.

[wambam]

This brings up, for me, the fact that I wonder if I need to worry about voting for candidates that support same-sex marriage. Prior to the SC decision, it was a very important part of voting for me. Now that it is law of the land, I'm questioning whether this needs to be top priority anymore. I honestly don't know.

I still don't think I would vote for Rubio.

[debatethis]

Dec 15, 2015 9:16:28 GMT -5 wambam said:

This brings up, for me, the fact that I wonder if I need to worry about voting for candidates that support same-sex marriage. Prior to the SC decision, it was a very important part of voting for me. Now that it is law of the land, I'm questioning whether this needs to be top priority anymore. I honestly don't know.

I still don't think I would vote for Rubio.

Rubio is now taking on transgender rights and "protecting bathroom safety" and wants to appoint SC justices to essentially reverse all the marriage equality decisions. I will be watching to see what the 2016 GOP platform officially says about fighting for traditional marriage or whatever it currently says, but I would say the fight is far from over.

[msmerymac]

Dec 15, 2015 9:06:32 GMT -5 josieposy said:

Huh. All the kids I know love Sanders.

Which is why they might be more apathetic if HRC were the nominee. 

[josieposy]

Dec 15, 2015 11:20:04 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Dec 15, 2015 9:06:32 GMT -5 josieposy said:

Huh. All the kids I know love Sanders.

Which is why they might be more apathetic if HRC were the nominee. 

Yeah I obviously didn't read this morning. Blech...

[heyjude]

Nuh uh. Don't buy it.

[MrsAxilla]

Dec 15, 2015 11:20:04 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Dec 15, 2015 9:06:32 GMT -5 josieposy said:

Huh. All the kids I know love Sanders.

Which is why they might be more apathetic if HRC were the nominee. 

Nah.  Well, I'm not a kid so I guess I don't know, but Bernie will be all gung-ho for Hillary if she gets the nom and he'll bring his supporters over.  

[oscarnerdjulief]

If Rubio won the nomination, a smart campaign strategy would be bringing up the whole "time for a new leader" argument, making Hillary seem like a woman out of the past, painting her as an out of touch grandma who can't quite work that tricky e-mail. This could work. Well, it wouldn't work, but if he could somehow Ohio and Florida, it'd at least send it into the second tier of swing states (VA/NV/NH). Hillary's general dowdiness---sorry, it's true---plays into this.

He could say, "do we really want a president who first came into politics before the Internet?" If he painted it as a battle between old-fashioned and modern, or out-of-touch versus common guy with financial issues (but not too serious), it could work.