S/o Ted "Cruz's" into first...

[nancybotwin]

What makes you all so sure Trump would lose the general election? We were sure he wouldn't get here, and yet his numbers keep going up. I think I have no hope that Americans are smarter than voting for him. Can y'all please give me hope that he will fade or go away soon? (Since you know, the argument that he's batshit crazy hasn't done anything for the last 6 months...)

[josieposy]

Demographics on a national level don't work out in his favor. Unless like 3/4 of the [edited] voters forget to vote that day.

[penguingrrl]

I'm not convinced he can't win. I was until my mom talked nonstop about how she was so sure that Reagan couldn't possibly win. She's terrified this is going to be another Reagan election.

[sushi]

This Will Be The End Of Trump’s Campaign,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Man For Seventh Time This Year

SALISBURY, MD—Repeating identical comments he had made in June, July, August, September, and twice in November, increasingly nervous local man Aaron Howe responded to Donald Trump’s call to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. Monday by once again stating this would be the end of the Republican frontrunner’s campaign, sources confirmed. “Well, that’s it—you just can’t say those kinds of things and expect to be taken seriously any longer,” said an anxious Howe, his voice quavering slightly as he spoke aloud the very same words he had previously uttered in reaction to remarks about Mexicans, women, the disabled, former POW John McCain, and a number of other targeted parties. “That’s the final nail in the coffin right there. There’s no way he’s coming back from this one.” At press time, a visibly tense Howe was steadily amassing the angst and exasperation that would be unleashed in his seventh expletive-filled exclamation of the year when he catches sight of the newest set of GOP poll numbers.

[bowies]

Because Trump supporters, by and large, have not shown up to vote in past primaries, caucuses, or general elections.

Because 25% of 40% (and that's a generous number, it's probably more like 30%) isn't that many people.

Because the "not Trump" choices are collectively outperforming him.

Because the electoral map is such that a Republican has to have a flawless campaign and appeal to "purple" states to win.

[tacosforlife]

1) Elite Republicans - college educated, wealthy Republicans - will not vote for him. I know multiple educated conservatives who have said that if he is the nominee, they will abstain or vote third party.

2) He has said enough offensive things about enough different groups that a Trump nomination will benefit the Democrats' turnout efforts. Voters who may not be enamored with Hillary and who might be inclined to stay home in a Hillary vs. Jeb! matchup will be motivated to vote.

He's too reliant on white, low- to middle-income voters without college educations. You can't win a general without broader support.

[ESF]

The GOP has a major electoral college problem. The map is stacked against them and a far right candidate like Cruz is not the guy who is going to turn a state like Ohio, that went blue for Obama twice and supported Hillary in the 2008 primary, to flip to red.

[scout8]

I think it is unlikely that he would be elected for the reasons mentioned already, but I do worry about something drastic happening that would help him win. What if there is some last minute scandal about the democratic nominee? Or, a huge terrorist event right before the election that pushes voters to the Republican candidate? Just in case, I do not want Trump as the nominee. He scares me. I really think he would have us in WW3 in the first 30 days in office.