It's all my Berner FB friends want to talk about, math challenges be damned!
What do we see happening between now and the 15th? What does each candidate need to do? How quickly can I grow back all the hair that fell out last night?
I'm not concerned about this, but I'm sure it will be annoying.
Also annoying? Bernie saying in some interview that MSNBC aired (I think it was after Michigan was called last night) that the political revolution is strong everywhere in the country.
EVERYWHERE? After losing 83-17 in Mississippi? Lol. I mean it's fine, he should be happy about his win in Michigan, but his political revolution is not strong everywhere in the country as evidenced by the repeated drubbing he has received in the south.
I'm not concerned about this, but I'm sure it will be annoying.
Also annoying? Bernie saying in some interview that MSNBC aired (I think it was after Michigan was called last night) that the political revolution is strong everywhere in the country.
EVERYWHERE? After losing 83-17 in Mississippi? Lol. I mean it's fine, he should be happy about his win in Michigan, but his political revolution is not strong everywhere in the country as evidenced by the repeated drubbing he has received in the south.
I saw this clip on Today and had the same thought.
No asshole, your revolution is not strong. You are losing in landslides in some states, and most of the states he's winning, he's doing so by less than 5% points. You think because a bunch of college kids in Kansas, the state with the worst governor in the county, handed you a huge victory, your revolution is strong? LOL.
Post by downtoearth on Mar 9, 2016 11:16:22 GMT -5
I still really like HRC and I am looking forward to the debate tonight. I also don't hate Bernie, but I think this whole primary is going to just get closer and closer. I still think HRC will get the delegates, but it's so interesting how many people consider themselves independents now.
I also think I'm done talking race and Democratic candidates - I'll leave that to POC, pundits, and the candidates themselves. I'll just listen for awhile. My FB feed and discussions IRL in my state feel like BLM and racism is now just a tool that white BS supporters use against white HRC supporters and vice versa. I don't know why, but I feel like it's not my place to fight as to who is more racist when my state is like 96% white, non-Hispanic and both candidates are at least trying, but often still falling flat. I've attended one BLM rally in my life and it was 95% white people, so I don't think I can speak to this well. And I find myself trying not to get a WTF-do-you-know face when I am reading or listening to other people talk about it who I know are very similar to me.
ETA: And then I went and posted in the thread with #MississippiBerning, so I guess I'm also terrible at will power.
What was the delegate split in Michigan? It was essentially tied, right?
I mean, it's a moral victory for sure. But he's actually further behind in the math after the Mississippi shellacking. (Oh, but sorry, the South doesn't count.)
Post by jeaniebueller on Mar 9, 2016 11:18:00 GMT -5
Also, a lot of posts about how Michigan is feeling the Bern. He won 49% to HRC 48%. Hardly a landslide. I give his campaign credit for outperforming the expectations, and getting their people out to vote than HRC did.
My biggest frustration is the racist "voting against their interests" crap and the idea that Southern states matter less than others because "they won't be Dem in the general."
ETA: Also, a lot of "Get rid of the electoral college! Delegates are fascist! True democracy!" Well, okay. Let's take a look at the numbers. What's the popular vote tally for Hillary and Bernie in the primaries?
My biggest frustration is the racist "voting against their interests" crap and the idea that Southern states matter less than others because "they won't be Dem in the general."
ETA: Also, a lot of "Get rid of the electoral college! Delegates are fascist! True democracy!" Well, okay. Let's take a look at the numbers. What's the popular vote tally for Hillary and Bernie in the primaries?
Well if it were up to me, the DNC would just kick Bernie out considering he's not even a democrat!
The complaints about the process and the DNC really bother me. The DNC doesn't owe Bernie shit. Don't like the process? Don't run for the D nomination. You're welcome.
My biggest frustration is the racist "voting against their interests" crap and the idea that Southern states matter less than others because "they won't be Dem in the general."
ETA: Also, a lot of "Get rid of the electoral college! Delegates are fascist! True democracy!" Well, okay. Let's take a look at the numbers. What's the popular vote tally for Hillary and Bernie in the primaries?
Well if it were up to me, the DNC would just kick Bernie out considering he's not even a democrat!
The complaints about the process and the DNC really bother me. The DNC doesn't owe Bernie shit. Don't like the process? Don't run for the D nomination. You're welcome.
THAT TOO! I got into a polite disagreement yesterday who posted something from US Uncut (the favorite news source of a lot of Berners, it seems) about the shortage of ballots in Michigan, basically blaming it on the DNC. I was like, "Uh... pretty sure they don't print the ballots for everyone. But keep dying on that cross!"
I am not sure what to think about the ignoring of the south. I live in Texas and was sent to a different polling place to vote in the Democratic primary. I would have thought nothing of it except when I got to the other polling place, they has the option to vote in either primary. Both polling places had the same number of machines and exactly half were being used for the Democratic primary. There was no wait to vote Republican but it took me 2 hours to vote.
I do not know if this was true at other polling places but if I had to work afterwards I might have left instead of standing in such a long slow moving line.
As a Bernie supporter, I'm pleased with yesterdays result, but I still think the chances of him catching up are very unlikely. I expect he'll lose FL by a large margin. Even if Ohio and Illinois are closer than expected he will probably be quite a bit further behind after next week. I don't know how he could possibly catch up, except potentially with say a big win in CA but they don't vote until June so I assume by then it will be over.
I do think he'll keep in the race as long as the math doesn't reach "impossible to beat HRC" which, who knows how soon that will happen. He could drag this out until summer, or it could be over by April. And as long as the $$ keeps rolling in which I assume it will.
I think it's great though. The longer the race continues the more debates there are that are debates of substance, where the issues that matter to me/us are brought up on national TV. Also the more the dems appear in the news. Hillary will have honed her debating skills to absolute perfection by the end of this. And hopefully, while there is still a fight to be had she'll continue trying harder with the minorities/BLM stuff in an effort to keep her edge over sanders in that demographic.
even with the superdelegates taken out of it, a 200 point lead will be very difficult to overcome with the proportional delegate system. Even if each race from here is close, she has a huge edge over him and he'd need to start winning big to catch up. It seems very unlikely.
Here is my anecdotal theory about how the projections were so off in Michigan...I think a good amount of people that are going to vote for the Democrat in November voted in the R primary for Kasich. There were a lot of people on facebook (and maybe even here?) that were questioning how to "best use their vote". I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of people that just thought that it was a foregone conclusion that Hillary would win Michigan, just voted "against Trump".
I'm getting a lot of "the superdelegates can change their vote!!!!"
Yeah, I'm seeing this too.
If it comes down to the wire, and Bernie has a little bit more of a lead than Clinton, but neither have enough votes to win without super delegates, I don't know what the super delegates should do. I used to think they should just go with whoever won the most support in the primaries, but Bernie is drawing from new voters instead of long term voters, so it's harder to say that he's the party's preference. I mean, the preference of 80-90% of black voters is pretty damn hard to ignore. Not to mention the preference of some huge majority of Latino voters. Plus, other key parts of the base, like Planned Parenthood and other women's groups.
I really, really hope that it does not come down to this. I'm really angry that Bernie is using the DNC for his own personal gain, and could effectively destroy the party as we know it. I don't think the DNC is perfect by any stretch, but I don't want to see it torched.
I think there's a ton of people who will get their act together and vote for Hilary in November that can't be bothered to go out and vote in the primaries. Sanders sparks a lot of the same antiestablishment fervor that Trump does so there's definitely some protest voting going on, especially now that he's projected to lose.
Here is my anecdotal theory about how the projections were so off in Michigan...I think a good amount of people that are going to vote for the Democrat in November voted in the R primary for Kasich. There were a lot of people on facebook (and maybe even here?) that were questioning how to "best use their vote". I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of people that just thought that it was a foregone conclusion that Hillary would win Michigan, just voted "against Trump".
This makes sense.
I vote next Tuesday and although I am an ardent HRC supporter, I've considered voting R as an "anyone but Trump" hail Mary.
I'm not really finding any great polls about my state (MO) to gauge things, though, so I'll probably stay the course.
I am not sure what to think about the ignoring of the south. I live in Texas and was sent to a different polling place to vote in the Democratic primary. I would have thought nothing of it except when I got to the other polling place, they has the option to vote in either primary. Both polling places had the same number of machines and exactly half were being used for the Democratic primary. There was no wait to vote Republican but it took me 2 hours to vote.
I do not know if this was true at other polling places but if I had to work afterwards I might have left instead of standing in such a long slow moving line.
Wait, your polling place changed after you got there? That is weird. I might email and report that to the TX elections commission or secretary of state.
I think it's great though. The longer the race continues the more debates there are that are debates of substance, where the issues that matter to me/us are brought up on national TV. Also the more the dems appear in the news. Hillary will have honed her debating skills to absolute perfection by the end of this. And hopefully, while there is still a fight to be had she'll continue trying harder with the minorities/BLM stuff in an effort to keep her edge over sanders in that demographic.
I do mostly agree with this. The Flint debate last week was amazing and the Democrats as a whole are better off because of it. More of that would be good. That said, I wish Sanders would stop trying to bring her and the DNC down because I am worried that things like his speech obsession and the ad he ran in Michigan last week claiming her support for trade agreements destroyed the economy there will suppress turnout in the general.
I've heard many analysts say that Hillary is at her best when she's the underdog. i think this loss, will only light a fire under her and she'll come back fighting, just like when she lost NH. It's just a matter of people actually catching that fire too and going out to vote.
No strategic voting, vote for who you want to be president.
Here is my anecdotal theory about how the projections were so off in Michigan...I think a good amount of people that are going to vote for the Democrat in November voted in the R primary for Kasich. There were a lot of people on facebook (and maybe even here?) that were questioning how to "best use their vote". I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of people that just thought that it was a foregone conclusion that Hillary would win Michigan, just voted "against Trump".
This makes sense.
I vote next Tuesday and although I am an ardent HRC supporter, I've considered voting R as an "anyone but Trump" hail Mary.
I'm not really finding any great polls about my state (MO) to gauge things, though, so I'll probably stay the course.
I am not sure what to think about the ignoring of the south. I live in Texas and was sent to a different polling place to vote in the Democratic primary. I would have thought nothing of it except when I got to the other polling place, they has the option to vote in either primary. Both polling places had the same number of machines and exactly half were being used for the Democratic primary. There was no wait to vote Republican but it took me 2 hours to vote.
I do not know if this was true at other polling places but if I had to work afterwards I might have left instead of standing in such a long slow moving line.
Wait, your polling place changed after you got there? That is weird. I might email and report that to the TX elections commission or secretary of state.
Honestly it is the first time I voted in a primary so I do not know if it changed. I know the polling places where I grew up had different locations for Republican and Democratic primaries. The thing that made me angry was the fact there was a choice at the second place, which makes me think both polling places could have done so.
Bernie isn't my candidate but I do think he adds value to the process. There are substantive debates and he's challenging HRC to be a better candidate. I don't even mind that he's pointing out some of the leadership failures within the DNC. HRC is challenging him too. I do honestly hope he takes lessons from the campaign trail and applies them to his job in the Senate. Maybe he'll inspire younger people to jump into elective politics at a lower level, thus building a progressive bench for the future. The Democrats are in desperate need of that.
What I don't get is don't people pay attention to the targets needed in each state to be viable? By any standard, it doesn't seem like Bernie can make up the 219 delegate difference without winning every single state by a large margin from here on out. I'm not sure where the optimism is coming from. The math doesn't seem like it could work out unless he wins each state now by 60+%.
My favorite line from the 538 article answers this - because math isn't sexy! Lol.
What I don't get is don't people pay attention to the targets needed in each state to be viable? By any standard, it doesn't seem like Bernie can make up the 219 delegate difference without winning every single state by a large margin from here on out. I'm not sure where the optimism is coming from. The math doesn't seem like it could work out unless he wins each state now by 60+%.
They are counting on him picking up a massive number of votes in California and New York.
I don't think he'll win NY. He may have some appeal upstate, but she was a senator there, and Manhattan is very pro-Hillary for a lot of reasons. Gillibrand and Schumer will pull out all stops to get her the win.
California makes me nervous. I can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a Berner. I don't know what the mood is like in Southern California though.
California makes me nervous. I can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a Berner. I don't know what the mood is like in Southern California though.
I now want someone to take a poll by swinging a dead cat. Maybe *that's* what was missing in Michigan!
Post by sparkythelawyer on Mar 9, 2016 14:11:59 GMT -5
HRC needs 45% of the outstanding delegates to clinch the nomination. Entirely doable.
Also, I'm not sure Bernie is adding value at this point. The longer he sticks around the more money HRC has to spend on a primary fight, which takes campaign money away that could have been used on the general election.